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If it stop picking the chargers, I might be alright!
11-9. Jets Jags Titans Hawks Panthers 5 road teams. Welp. Let's roll |
rudy22 | 16 |
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Against you tonight. I think the "Revenge game" angle also banks on a look ahead. Cavs show up for big games. They're not gonna take the #2 seed lightly, and I think their 2 dominant performances against them this season were no fluke. They show up tonight and show they're still kings of the east. Probably why you saw Lebron rest up and ride the pine against the bulls.
Best of luck!
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placeholder | 138 |
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Game went as expected! Were in control with a double digit lead the entire game after that 4th quarter run. Hope some people tailed and made some money!
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Quickiies | 14 |
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replied to
Lets see what happens if we fade all the teams that took on or acquired new players.
in NBA Betting
Not a great trend. Good when it's big minute players. Boogie makes the pelicans better, but it doesn't happen overnight and the whole offense changes. That was a good fade, where as fading rockets would be silly when lou williams fits like a glove. To fade based on a role playeer is silly, but nuggets just got hibbert.
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HappyKane | 4 |
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I'm not some silly newbie. Obviously there are no sure bets in a game that can be as random as basketball. I see this game as an 80% chance or so of jazz covering, and that's as good as you're gonna find in the NBA all year.
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Quickiies | 14 |
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What kind of line is this? Jazz -2.5 is insane value.
Jazz won 5 straight against Bucks Jazz beat bucks soundly first meeting this year Jabari Parker torn ACL, that's 20 ppg to replace Hibbert traded to Denver, lose some big man depth Jazz at full strength or just missing hood This just looks like too big of an adjustment from lines makers due to Utah's slump before the break and Milwaukee playing a few good games. The all star break makes those basically meaningless and it's a new season. This game has jazz blowout written all over it.
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Quickiies | 14 |
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Broncos:
Because it's on the road on Jacksonville has been competitive recently. Plus Broncos played an extra 15 minutes in a physical game. Hard to make a defensive team on the road in that kind of spot a touchdown favorite. Atl: Not sure why this is weird to you. Weird that they're favored by that much or what? Chiefs are probably a top 5 football team. Atlanta has their issues, this line is basically where it should be. Probably closes at -3 Pitt: Again, why is this weird to you? Do you really think the 6-5 Steelers who haven't looked great at all recently are THAT much better than the 8-3 Giants? Another line where it should be. Bills: Questions about Carr's Health. Chiefs stomped the Raiders early in the year, and the Bills run that same type of game plan with McCoy/Tyrod running and keeping the ball for long drives. Thought this line would open at 4, but don't think its far off.
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doctrepp | 11 |
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Panthers are officially done, Seahawks great at home and off a bad loss. Happily laying the -6.5 here. Similar to the game against philly 2 weeks ago!
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bmiller1632 | 11 |
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Laying 3.5 in Minnesota is the equivalent of laying 10 to them at home. Vegas isn't giving away money here. The line is inflated as it is, it should be a -2.5 or -3 game at most. Again, Cowboys are obviously capable of covering this spread. There are better games to bet this week, but the argument can definitely be made for the Vikings here. Best front 7 they've faced, lockdown corner for Dez, loud crowd on primetime, and a potential let down spot between important division games for the boys. Vikings need this win more badly than the cowboys do.
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Jrod6 | 70 |
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137 definitely feels a little high for the Nova game. Probably my favorite pick of the day.
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pederson16 | 2191 |
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It's strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness. Vikings front 7 against cowboys run game (Both teams strengths), and Vikings pass game vs Cowboys secondary(Both teams Weaknesses). Bradford isn't great, but cowboys secondary may just be worse. I would wait....I'm confident you'll see -3 at some point during the week.
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ActionMagnet | 25 |
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And Baltimore kept that game close in dallas, and if Flukeoh was anything more than a glorified osweiler they easily could have won that game. Vikings offense isn't exciting, but it's efficient enough against the Dallas D. I agree the cowboys line is as good as any I've ever seen. If there's a week they can get stopped, it's this one. Who killed the Ravens? Dez. They didn't have the corner to man him up. Makes it harder to stop the run. Vikings have Rhodes. I don't think this game is lock of the century by any means, but signs point towards minnesota imo. They could have made this line 6.5 and the public would still be all over Dallas. It's 3.5 for a reason, and I think Minnesota gets it done or keeps it close.
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Jrod6 | 70 |
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I agree. Again, the question all season has been what do the cowboys do when someone finally stops the run? They've avoided a lot of the best defensive fronts in the league. Vikings Giants Bucs Lions these next 4 all have the fronts that have a chance, let's see if the Cowboys get exposed or not. I think it's a coin flip game, getting 3.5 is a gift. Probably gets bet down before thursday by sharp money. Efficiency wise, especially at home, the vikings are a lot better than their public perception. I don't feel great betting against Dallas at all right now but this is a good one.
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Jrod6 | 70 |
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The long physical overtime game is scary. Atlanta is good at home and have the bucs hot on their tail. I agree I would lean towards KC, but the situation is a little scary. Get it early in the week at 3.5, bet this line goes back down to a field goal.
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footballsmart | 44 |
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I got Boise +13 1/2. When are the inflated oregon lines gonna stop? They clearly were overrated.
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BentleySports | 7 |
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The days of mid major Butler are over! They're a big east team now. Laying one point on them against utah here seems too good to be true. Utah lost all their senior playmakers from last year and is projected to be a middle of the road pac 12 team. My coworker went to Utah and is a big Ute/NCAAB fan, and he couldn't believe the spread was basically a pick em either.
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pederson16 | 2191 |
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Have done this stuff in my own records in other sports, never stuck with it in college BBall. Will try to keep track on here. Rules are simple: 70% with reverse line movement (Based on thespread)
11/28 thus far: NW State +11 @ Miss St. FSU -9 vs. Minn Utah +1 vs Butler |
Quickiies | 1 |
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Thanks for the response! This Butler game is weird to me. Utah isn't supposed to be that good, and they haven't played a real team. Butler has 3 respectable wins, how on Earth did the line get bet down to -1.5?
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pederson16 | 2191 |
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Keep up the great work! If you don't mind me asking, what are the main things you're looking for in games you cap? Their efficiency ratings vs what the spread is, rest, travel, unfamiliar court, previous games? Thanks!
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pederson16 | 2191 |
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Seattle never travels east all that well. I think the Dolphins Giants or Steelers are safer teases.
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newmarket | 7 |
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