Raiders22

AWFUL PASS!!! 

Stupid running into punter penalty changed the whole game 

yet, again 

Bills still so explosive 

Mia +11 

@Rush51

Japan is in a quandary with what to do.  The sequencing is up in the air.  If their 30-year continues to go up and cause problems, what do they do.  When they run out of assets they have been borrowing collateral to get more dollars.  Then they are forced to sell.  They own over $2T US bonds and other securities.  So, do they sell any of these?  If they do sell what are they going to do.  They are selling the dollar and turning around and buying the yen so they can bring it back and give it the institutions to meet their margin call.  

Or, is the sequencing going to be with France because they cannot reach a deal and the UK is hurting, even though they are not in the Euro.  Half of the riots are that they want to pull out of the EU and the Euro.  So, if they pull out, people then sell the Euro and what do they buy.  Do they buy US, or do they buy Japan.  What happens if Germany and Japan go at the same time.  It is not likely, but it could happen.  

So, the big assets managers have to figure out which way to go.  They have to be very concerned about going to the US, where they are doing QE but not admitting doing QE (stealth QE), trying to fire FED members.  Do they trust the US, do they trust Trump, do they trust Bessent -- who knows.  Do they sell Euro, do they buy Euro.  

Think about in Europe -- they are already bifurcated.  It is on a political military level.  But they have the coalition of the willing.  Which means not everyone is willing.  So the Euro and the EU is kind of already breaking up.  

So, if you assume there has to be some kind of sequencing, does it mean the US screws it up so badly that it drives the Euro and Yen up before they break and then everything reverses.  These are very unique times that we have not seen before.  It is really what is known as a sovereign crisis.

So, look at the currencies.

GBP is basically flat.  Yen, the same thing.  Euro, the same. No one can figure out the sequencing so that is why the bonds are moving but the currencies are not.  Nobody knows the sequencing.

Essentially when you control interest rates, you give up control of your exchange rates.

I am not a FED fan nor a Powell fan.  But now that they have decided this course and indicated to stay on the course, it will be very interesting what happens going forward.  Are they able to control things and stave off a potential stagflation event.

A side note that is interesting is that Miran was the dissenting vote for a half-point cut.  While the two members that are deemed Trump's choices to succeed Powell did not.  Bowman has said she does not want the job.  Waller has been more receptive to 'openly campaigning' for it, yet he did not call for a half-point cut.  So, what does Trump do about that position next year.

But either way it should be interesting times ahead.

@Rush51

 Yes, he is the one.  A few pages back I posted the key parts of his initial assessment.  Most of which I agree with.

Very true concerns about the FED. They are in a tricky spot.  You normally do not want to cut your rates when inflation is going up.  All of the assets are at all-time highs.  Stock markets, crypto, gold, silver, housing -- everything is at all-time highs.  And they cut the rates.  

If you take out China with the renminbi, because it is a closed system but look at the other countries it is interesting (USA, Germany, Japan, UK, Italy, France).  Essentially, you see that in 5 of the 6, the rates are turning over.  

Normally you can make it one point for inflation and a half-point for term, depending on how long it is.  So, you want your yield to be 1.5% plus inflation rate.

So, obviously, not one country now is doing that.  You also have to keep in mind that the governments can drive down short-term rates, they do not have control over the long-term rates.

Generally, there is considered to be four major buckets of money that major asset managers feel that they can go to and not affectuate prices:  US, Euro, Japan, and China.  You have to sort of bypass China because of their internal issues.

France has twice in the last two weeks fiddled with their rates and has riots in the streets.  They are the #1 country in the world with 57% of GDP expenditures.  

So, they have to look at where will they go.  US treasury buybacks are rising.  They are taking the interest on the federal balance sheet ($6.5T) and going to the open market and buying the US 10-year bond.  This is at an all-time record right now.  $138B bought so far this year, compared to $79B all of last year.  

So, the question on why the 10-year has turned over is:  is it because Bessent has bought $138B on the open market or is it because of the unemployment.  This is not so easy to parse out.

BOL today 

BOL today 

Howdy P   Good luck today Fellows 

@nature1970

So sorry to hear that.  I know you guys had got pretty close.

We had some good messages about several things from time to time, especially about buying a place in Belize.

Sadly, never could reach out to him once the messaging feature was gone on here.

He was a good guy. 

BOL today 

BOL today 

BOL today 

719-657       +3183

CLV TT U2.5 +109

DET TT O4.5 +116

DET 1s5 -.5 -139

ATH 1sT5 +.5 -117

KC TT U4.5 -125

CIN U9 -117

NYY 1st5 -.5 -128

BLT TT U3.5 -119

MIL -1 -125

@Rush51

 I mean to add more about what I was saying earlier about a hidden recession.  The guy I referenced the other day also pointed out that he felt the last 'rolling' sector was the government sector and that it had hit the bottom also.  This is not surpassing, as this is generally sort of what we see.

Even at Powell's talk today he also pointed out some of this but did express his issues with some of the things going forward.

At any rate, I think a lot of this highlights what I have been saying all along.  Even though I am not quite yet as positive as he is.

A leading Wall Street analyst says the wave of government layoffs driven by Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative—the so-called Department of Government Efficiency—marked the end of a three-year rolling recession in the U.S. 

The “rolling” nature of this recession meant different sectors hit their troughs at different times, but Wilson argues that the government sector was the last domino to fall—with DOGE’s mass layoffs acting as a clear inflection point.

The good news is that for every recession there’s a recovery, and Wilson continues to call for a bullish “rolling recovery,” stating: “We’re buyers of dips into year-end.” He wrote that the bank is standing by its S&P 500 bull case of 7200 through the middle of next year.

the bank highlighted that DOGE might lead to a “government labor cycle” and against that backdrop, “we believe the DOGE layoffs marked the end of the rolling recession that likely began 3 years prior.” He cited the bank’s projects that job cuts over the period lasting from 2022-2025 were roughly 30% higher on average than during the last economic expansion that lasted from 2010 to 2019.

The market reaction to these layoffs was swift: stocks, especially small caps, fell sharply into April as massive government-sector job cuts—some 280,000 positions announced in February and March alone—drove recessionary levels of household and corporate confidence.

Wilson acknowledges ongoing risks from lagging labor indicators, but contends that the worst of the economic pain is now behind.

As more evidence of the rolling recession, Wilson cited negative median stock earnings growth and small-cap growth in earnings per share (EPS) from 2022 through 2024. Both spent years in negative territory, only to rebound sharply in early 2025. Exhibit data from the note show Russell 3000 median EPS growth transitioning into positive territory for the first time in years by mid-2025, a dynamic only seen during early-cycle recoveries.

BOL