Rays8888

Hellabuyck has great numbers on B2B's but the Jets have been giving up a lot of shots on net, I think the Panthers riddle the Jets with shots again.  The game yesterday was pretty close if you watched all of it. Luongo in net is an obvious plus for a team that has had weak goaltending, he's back after missing 9 games so he could be motivated but a bit rusty, I like Panthers to bounce back and he game to go over. Panthers win 5-3

Very True.

Say that before the game goes off hater.

 

Gotta bounce back.

DAL 1st Qtr ML +120

Pacer's have been slow to start games their last couple and have been having to to play catch up. Read ESPN preview, they even say it themselves that it's something they need to work on. Pacers will also be without Oladipo!!! Both teams are on a back to back. Mav's scored 31pts in the 1st yesterday against TOR(21pts) (albeit @ home). Pacers let DET score 40pts to their 19pts in last nights 1st Qtr. Nets outscored them in the 1st Qtr in the game before that 28 - 21. Im going to take my chance and try and get some quick money with DAL 1st Qtr ML.

We win together

I nailed FSU - 13.5 and the Over earlier.  I was worried about the weather effecting FSU's ability to score 35+pts in cold weather but was pleasantly surprised by their QB's skill and OL ability to create gaps.

MIZZ ML - 150

I'm really not going to overthink this one. MIZZ put up 48pts @ARK, 50pts vs TENN, 45pts vs FLA in the month of November.  Texas will be playing without some key players (could/should throw off their team chemisty) AND they let weak boooty Kansas put up 27pts.  I like MIZZ putting up "atleast" 30pts.

FSU - 13.5 and Over 49.5

 

SoMis gave up 27 to Marshall, 21 to Charlotte, and 34 to Rice, their last 3 games.  FSU lost some key players to the draft which should/could mess up their defensive team chemistry allowing SOMIS to score some points they wouldn't have normally have scored (plus the 3 week layoff). I actually like the fact that Jimbo is out, I can't say he was adding to the players pressure to perform but with Jimbo out I like the FSU players to relax and do what they love doing, play ball. I know the FSU players know that a win would continue their 30+ seasons with a winning record which does add pressure.  My biggest concern is the weather, it's going to be 38 degrees.  Players in warm weather climates generally played in warm weather growing up and go to the best warm weather school they can.  I feel like this could look like Miami on the road in cold assss Pitt. That being said I still like FSU's firepower and the wholes in their defense should leave some nice opportunites for SOMIS to score.

Like JMoneymaker I appreciate your write up. I reevaluated my Overeem bet and changed it to Ngannou.  I was under the impression that the more experienced Overeem would exploit Ngannou but I youtubed Ngannou, realized he is even stronger than Overeem and Overeem can have a weak chin. 

I liked your Pettis write up but I just couldnt pull the trigger. I liked and didn't like that Pettis has won the majority of his fights by decision, Seems like Cej hasnt been using his olympic caliber wrestling to beat his opponents which leads me to believe Pettis can keep the fight off the ground and use his reach to somewhat control Cej, but that;s all bro science.

Thanks for the write ups! GL

Well. that was a nice turn of events!

Cabrera -125

If Rus drops a set 6-1 to Diachenko she should certainly drop one to the more talented and better rested Cabrera.  I got a chance to follow both of their last matches and felt Rus should have lost that match.  She lost serve first in the 3rd set. I don't think Cabrera in that situation allows herself to steal serve first only to lose the set and match.  I was concerned though that Cabrera lost so many serves in the 2nd set (to a player currently in bad form) but was impressed with her ability to steal them back.  I also like the fact that Cabrera beat Rus 2-1 only 3 months ago. I like Cab to win in 2 sets but wouldnt be surprised nor worried if it went to 3 seeing as how players at this rank seem to always go 3 sets.


Broady -210

I had bet Broady to win ML against Jang as I was super confident that she would cruise past Jang even though Jang had beaten her twice already but I had another opportunity to watch Jang's match against Rodionova and Jang not only struggled and looked tired but Rodionova had her on the ropes SOOO many times and did not capitalize.  I like the way Broady has been playing but I was obviously super comcerned when she dropped the 1st set to who I thought was a tired sloppy Jang, I regained my confidence after she briskly took the 2nd set and felt right about my assesment of Jang being tired... Looking at Kuder/Frech match after Frech (who I had bet on) won 1st set and could have won the match had she capitalized on on being up 3-2 going into her serve but allowed Kuder to steal Frech's next 2 serves which didn't surprise me as she did battle Frech pretty hard in the 1st set even though the score doesnt really show that. BUT the 3rd set is where you see the differemce in skill, age, and experiencel from a ranked #172 Frech (age 20) and a ranked #122 Broady (age 27). Frech and Kuder are roughly the same age and even though Frech lost serve, she stole Kuders next 2 serves but lost her next 2 serves as well.  I expect a more experienced Broady to use her experience and (at the moment) superior skill to beat Kuder in that situation.  Broady in her 8 years seems to have capped at around the ATP #130 ish rank and she hovered in the 100-200 rank her whole career. Kuder is young and doesnt have the experience, she definately has more upside than Broady being only 20 and this is the year she plays more than 6 - 9 matches a year (5 matches totaled played in 2012, 6 matches in 2013 & 2014, 9 matches in 2016 and 24 played in 2017 . To me this is great news for Broady bettors.

I'm no tennis expert.  I don't understand a lot of the strategies that are applied in any given game.  I create a story in my mind of how the player might be feeling going into the match based off of past performance and effort.  In this match I had the rare opportunity to watch the Sock/Cilic match.  From my understanding Cilic relies on a consistent powerful, reliable serve.  I saw Sock use a lot of finesse shots and made Cilic move around a lot. I think Zverev will play the same role as Cilic, powerful server... The only thing, is it seems that Zverev isn't as consistent. He's been gaining a lot of leads but letting his opponents get back in it because of the lack of experience. I expect him to be the best player on the planet in 2-3 years seeing as he's only what... 20?  In a nurshell I like what I saw in Sock's counter game. I expect him to counter Zver's powerful serve and make the tall German move around. I probably bet the over but I just have to test my bro science and go with Sock ML +150... damn i just tried to send this post through and had to click about 46 different I'm not a robot captions....

I feel ya, I didn't like Goffin winning but I did think he would be ultra competitive and the game could go over.  I appreciate your review and input.  The people talking smack about your picks don't contribute anything but negativity and love to see people lose.

He posted this thread on 11/13. Hopefully you pay better attention in your sports analysis.

I like the Over @ 23.5.  I figure Goffin is in good form beating Nadal.  Dimitrov is 5 -1 H2H in the matchup with Goffin winning their last match 2-1 (4-6, 6-1, 3-6).

Nice comeback. Congrats to all the bettors who had the courage to stick with him LOL. Still have Sock on a parlay with Slovakia and Spain..

My beech asss cashed out early and broke even... can't take the pressure and I don't like Sock in a tie-break much like VSRudy.

i should do an early cashout and just break even...naw.. naw...let it ride.

I'm looking at this game with a simple approach.  Sock is 2-0 against Cilic. Even though Sock has lost to some weak opponents I have to assume he beat Cilic last year while Cilic's serve was at 100%.  Cilic's serve isnt at 100% and it's been costing him matches he would have normally have won.  Bro science says if Sock beat Cilic when his game was on point he should be able to capitalize on a Cilic with a shaky serve. I'm just going to take Sock +110.

also if you look, he was super competitive against A Zverev. Simon could have won that first set against Zverev and won the match because he nearly took him to a 3rd set. having had 5 days to rest and think about it at HOME  because both chardy and simon are french. so simon has had plenty of time to rest and study an opponent hes already beaten 4 times!!!

chardy has played 5 matches in 5 straight days. hes gotta be tired. simon has had 11 days off leading up to viena where he naturally beat gulbis and lost to A zverev. simon is 4 - 0 lifetime head v head chardy. simon has seen his ranking go down a bit and his L 20 matches look scary but this is one of those spots that good players like him bounce back in. Simon - 180