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Dubs may go above 110 if they are shooting well. Hoping they are happy with low 100s
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mrdish33 | 13 |
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warrior -13
Under 214.5 |
mrdish33 | 13 |
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To make it easy to read.
Holly holm KO 35 percent chance. Ronda win 65 percent chance by decision. TJ over Cruz. KO or decision. Cruz chance of KO 10 percent. Matt over Travis. The X over Matt. |
Redwing41 | 18 |
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guarantee she beats a tate and cat tag team.
I can break it down if you want.
UFC will want their cash cow Ronda as champ. Holly doesnt KO then she loses to decision by rigging. Yes, Im convinced the judge and ref rig certain fights. Immediate rematch for Ronda but not for Aldo? Why is Holly +130, not the favourite unless they want people to bet her then let ronda win by decision. Holly isnt going to KO Ronda again that easily. Ronda wont bull rush, just run up points. Another bad judging call. Ronda wins without rigging then they let it go. Ronda has better odds with the rigging in her favor, only has to watch out for a KO hence her line is favourite. Same went for Aldo +130. They hyped up aldo 10 year champ, confused the hell out of me. Mcgregor haters went heavy on Aldo even out the line. I already knew mcgregor was going to win and let them talk me out of it. Conor if he fought Aldo 10 times would win 10. No one is beating Conor unless he gets choked out or a new fighter comes in and takes over that is legit. UFC ran promos of Aldo, youtube had videos of fighers choosing sides, the fighters dont know more than any regular watcher.Aldo knew before he went into the cage he was a dead man. He was scared of Conor from day one. If you catch onto it early you will get the right pick, dont let them fool you. Conor was speaking the truth. Holly holm wins by KO or Ronda by decision or armbar. Bet those, probably less on armbar, Holly is too strong. Cruz loses to TJ. I picked the other way around already.. No way they let Cruz be champ with the more exciting TJ already there. Cruz will win by points but they give it to TJ. Mittrione win over Travis. No rigging here neither will become champ. I do like mittrione though as a fighter, underated striker. |
Redwing41 | 18 |
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Ronda is over hyped. Fight holm early she would be no where as popular and bring in so much attention. Guaranteed loss for Ronda. Strategic move for UFC. UFC plan not to have holm fight Ronda until Ronda gets hype armbaring fighters with no strength, striking or ground game. This is fact. Compare Ronda vs Holm and you already know Holm is better even before the matchup. Ronda armbaring these easy targets. They have holm fighting no names.
They choose who to fight not number 2 vs number 3. They give title shots randomly.
Paige vanzant, has no technical skill.(I bought the hype..) hyped her up for Rose (no way Paige beats Joanna). Rose fights her way up, beat the match ups then fights Joanna and gets beat. Karolina I think will work her way up and beat Joanna im still undesided because I havent seen her tapes but no one in the division can beat Joanna unless Karolina is a beast or they rig the fight. Fighters that I believe are rigged in their favor next few fights even if they lose by a small margin - "up and comers" Morono Kish Michael mcdonald Ortega Northcutt They will be hyped till people think they are better than the champ then they will lose or make it to top 5. |
WalshyMMA | 21 |
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Definately rigging going on. Lawler condit fight it was so close you can't say it was fixed. This was planned though. To piss us off more someone that had access to the scorecard took a legit clear picture by order from a higher up. Maybe im wrong, but that doesnt sound right. Creating drama. They couldnt care less who is champ whatever makes the chairman more dough.
Point wise Condit landed more shots. Condit wanted to retire, its bad business for him to leave with the belt. Belt goes to the champ win or lose unless KO'ed. They hyped up Condit and he actually did better than expected since he was suppose to lose by KO.
Noke vs Morono I could only find round 1. If Noke fought like that 3 rounds he should of had all 3 rounds. From what I hear Noke actually won. I guess I will parlay bet on the fake rising star Morono first few matches and he will get Ko'ed by a proper fighter. He couldnt take out Noke, but they are pushing him as a star because he only had 2 weeks "at his best hes unstoppable". I guess they wanted a Robbie lawler vs Condit victory but Morono didnt make the match close (according to what I hear). Regardless who win he gets the W. Unless a KO happens it goes to whoever they decide. Which is why Morono upset Noke to bring him attention. Morono will face off against one of the many fighters in the division that are meant to lose against him. He goes higher in rank, gets overhyped with no real value except he fought goats, and they feed him to the lion. Winner beats Morono and fights the next contendor then the champ. Of course they try to manipulate the champ and they repeat the process. |
WalshyMMA | 21 |
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BOL to a winning night.
Might decide to stop betting against the SAC they are streaky. Same goes for LAC. Hopefully Steph sits out this one. |
Redwing41 | 4 |
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GSW -13. They are playing lakers.
GSW under 214.5 (GSW wont need to push to beat Lakers in the 3rd and fourth, lakers slow down fourth) 115 points GSW, under 100 Lakers Dallas -5.5 Good matchup against sacremento. Ny Knicks +8.5 enough points.
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Redwing41 | 4 |
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Also GSW best defence in the league, lakers bad offence, but at times have runs.GSW is also one of those teams that are up 15-20 points at the 4 minute of fourth and always slow down but play good defence.
last meeting with lakers score was some near 190. Under 214.5.
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valderama7 | 9 |
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GSW is still a good team without curry. It takes time for them to adjust as they did earlier matchups. Against a better team then it may be a good pick for GSW opponent.
I took the under. If golden state is smart they will let curry sit or let him injure his leg and lose the championship.
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valderama7 | 9 |
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So far I have:
Holm over Rousey - 4/5 confidence Cruz over Tj - 3/5 confidence Matt over Travis browne - 3/5 confidence (may parlay this bet with holm) Matt is under rated fighter. Travis doesnt do well with anyone who pressures him judging from Arlovski fight, few hits from Matt and he questions his game plan (his striking is below par so he doesnt push). Stipe would flatten both them out, arlovski already took out Travis. Travis is also dating Ronda... Definately not a mismatch. Matt last two losses by choke, if he avoids travis on the ground he should be the favourite on the feet. Travis has no choke victory in his record. Striking is lacking, he has power though. |
Redwing41 | 18 |
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"Her ground game does not compare."
compare to elite grapplers, holm's strength will be something ronda hasnt dealt with on the ground. Her technique will need to be fantastic,she doesnt know how to pull off a triangle and with holly's strength wont be able to pull off a kimura.
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Redwing41 | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot: I think Cruz loses here, of course I could be wrong and Im not super confident but I like TJ to win. He has really improved and lot and Cruz has been barely around for years now. Im not going to bet it but thats just my two cents. I think slight odds to Tj or cruz depending how cruz decides to fight. Cruz decides to fight straight on he will lose. I dont expect knockout by cruz. Fight will look like Condit against lawler (cruz as condit style), but better head movement, punches and kicks with intent from Cruz. Tj copied cruz's style so he has better movement than lawler. I think cruz's style will be hard to deal with since he is very accurate and random. KO by TJ better chance than KO by Cruz. Decision /by Cruz is likely outcome. Looks like standing fight with TJ taking Cruz down few times. To make the match more exciting I bet small cruz. Coin flip match. Might go ko by tj to hedge, up cruz bet.
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Redwing41 | 18 |
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Holm was the pick at the first matchup, still is at +130 or so now. Her camp is now training to out think rondas new plan. Edmund is not a fight coach, hes a boxing coach. Weight is lifted off Ronda from that loss but I dont see her getting more muscular than Holm, striking cant improve so much, her throws arent getting better. Her ground game does not compare.
People betting ronda thinks that headkick was lucky or she needed to not bull rush her. She would of been taken down by punches. Odds say that Ronda is so good she is the favourite after that loss. Thats BS. We wont get tricked that easily.. There is always the odds that Ronda gets holm in the armbar so I am not going big on this |
Redwing41 | 18 |
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Utah has problems too.
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RoseGold | 6 |
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I also think they judge who had the more exciting round rather than punches landed. That is why they added octagon control, aggresiveness, pace to the rules. Essentially saying whoever had more highlights in the round, takedowns and aggresiveness wins. So more times than not the aggresive fighter/ dominant fighter wins close rounds because his pace, octagon control ect is scored.
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Ferrari29 | 3 |
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The judging is all over the place this card. It seems whoever is more aggresive and dominant will win rounds over a person who holds someone down in side control and does nothing. Macdonald nearly got choked out. How he pulled his arm out is beyond me.. I bet Noke, caught the end of the match so cant tell who won. From what I hear Noke won. Its better business if Morono wins. Conspiracy theory I know.. I guess bet when your fighter has the political advantage, money line advantage and technical advantage. With that line of thinking Cruz and Ronda to take back their title sounds like the move UFC wants = rigged judging? Idk, the fights say one thing the judges another.. |
Ferrari29 | 3 |
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Good work!
Im new to UFC betting, this may sound whatever, what does to go distance under 2 and half mean? +4500 sounds like its a low percent bet.
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JimGunn | 8 |
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Holm over Ronda. Rondas ground game is garbage and her only winning tool. Throw opponents to the ground and submit by armbar, never triangle, leg locks, chokes. never passes guard, full mount, nothing. Why? Her opponents dont have good bjj, she doesnt need to do anything special.
She was the reason I started betting, when I thought everyone was thinking that Holm was going to KO Ronda instead everyone was stunned.. champion kickboxer, strikes are technically solid and head kicks are fast, hidden and strong. Also she has the body of a bodybuilder on steroids.
Rondas coach is not the reason why Ronda was the champ. She should of dropped him but she has an attachment to him. Harsh words but is the truth. No game plan before or during the break. Just practicing pads and light sparring trying to KO a world champ kickboxer. Rondas does not fight smart nor does she have the team to draw up a game plan. Shes also insane.. Even if Ronda gets Holly on the ground holly is much stronger than her previous opponents and is more than likely training BJJ defence. Avoid the throw and armbar and its an easy win for Holly. |
Redwing41 | 18 |
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Last title shot im going to bet on, maybe Holm vs Ronda too because of huge mismatch in holm's favor and underdog for holm. Cruz over TJ. Cruz has lots of movement, better than TJ's, crouches, leans, head movement all postives in Cruz's game over TJ. Tj still great movement, more strength. Cruz out of injury will push him to win this fight.
Close match up. Would be a lot of back and forth like Lawler vs Condit. Tj strong like lawler but better movement vs Cruz more diverse movement and good defence, unpredictible. Two likely out comes TJ by KO, Cruz by win (decision). More towards Cruz.
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Redwing41 | 18 |
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