sacker17

Happy Easter

pissed I didn’t bet against Taylor today.

matchup was decent Thompson -125 who is a damn good player

Fitz stuck in the mud with 5 pars to start (2 par 5s).  Not good 

lots of guys going low.  Especially the guys out early (as usual)

Rd4

fitzpatrick under 69.5 

Draftkings

I laid -130 but used a promo they have to get it lower

Fitz grew up on this course where his family would vacation.  He knows the course well and plays well here.

last few times here he finished 28/1/MC/14/39/14

I always found him to be a good putter but yesterday he was -2.54 strokes putting yet still finished -3.  His T2G yesterday was excellent +3.63 and his APP was +2.53

just need -2 to hit under 69.5.

Winds stay rather benign today at under 10 mph

If betting on DK use your promo

won this event a few years ago 

Hated the matchups 

Didn’t want to bet Bezeidenhuit (v Taylor) as his numbers this week are awful

didnt want to bet MinWoo Lee (v Cauley) as although Lee is a good player, his numbers this week are bad too

Much prefer tourney bets to daily bets anyway.  A lot of randomness with 18 hole bets 

good luck to all

Hoping to get a good matchup to bet against Taylor tomorrow

Glad Taylor made that 26’ bird putt on 18 to  make him finish better 

Cauley was AS with Taylor heading to 18 but Cauley lost his drive and was done

could've/should’ve bet Taylor over 69.5 but went with Cauley match instead.

oh well

Taylor’s numbers are bad and so are Cauley’s 

Taylor made 115’  of putts today (tour average 70-75) and all other categories were negative.  And he came into this event with negative season long putting stats

With a decent matchup I’d bet against Cauley too

Yea let’s make some dough

@Blb

Nice win

Close and big juice but a win so nicely done

Rd2

1-1

Cauley sh!t the bed

Taylor was garbage but Cauley was worse.

Taylor was negative strokes gained in every single category but Cauley was even worse.

Ill continue to bet against both of them over the weekend

Harman came through for the split

I’d lean that way as Finau has been garbage and Day seems on his game

But that’s a lot of juice for 1 round

Rd2 adding a round score prop

Harman under 69.5(-105)

Harman played great rd1 shooting 66 and although he is a good putter, that was the only part of his game that was off as he was -1.55 strokes putting.

He was an amazing +4.84 strokes gained T2G and was positive strokes gained I. Every other category.

He just has to shoot 69(-2) to hit this.

winds will be light 5-10 mph and he tees off before 10 am which I feel is a plus.

His history here is terrific as his finishes here going back are 12/7/35/13

and he seems to be in good form having won a tourney 2 starts back 

Gonna come back and ride 1/2 of the winnings from rd1 right back on

Cauley -125 v Taylor

Taylor doesn’t play well here as last 10 years he has played 9x and has only 1 finish better than 49th and that was 22nd.

Rd1 Taylor scrambled his ass off and putted well but he was negative strokes gained in all other categories. Just think maybe this course is not a good fit for him.

Taylor Negative stroke gained OTT/ARG/T2G/APP

Cauley gained strokes ARG/APP/T2G rd1 and had 3 top 6 finishes his last 3 tourneys coming in here.  See above.

Rd1 his stats were all better than Taylor except putting but for the season Cauley has better putting stats.

Also like that Cauley is fresher than Taylor as Cauley didn’t play the Masters and Taylor played all 4 rounds and finished 40 of the 53 who made the cut.

The Masters is a grind.

Gonna go with Cauley again and hope he plays better but rd1 he was t his best and still win the matchup 

Thx

Touch and go but it won.

they don’t ask questions at the cashier

taylor was playing out of his mind most of the round, scrambling his ass off and making putts.

i didnt expect Taylor to be good today as in 9x here he had only 1 finish better than 49th

And Cauley was just piddling around most of the round and I thought he’d be better off 3 straight top 6 finishes 

I much prefer a tourney bet as there is time to “revert to the mean” which is what Taylor did just in time with bogeys on 15&17

I’ll start by saying I’m ahead pretty good for the year but when I post it seems to be bad luck and I’m behind in my post plays 

so trying not to to be superstitious 

like a rd1 play alot

Cauley -125 v Nick Taylor

Cauley in great form.

Last 3 tourneys all top 10 (5/4/6)

He had injuries last few years but seems to be good now after being in sidelines for years following a very serious auto accident.

He was destined for a good career but it got derailed 

He was a top 5 junior golfer as a teen

Played at University of Alabama and in 3 years there was an All American all 3 years 

Was a member of the Walker Cup in 2009 and went 3-0-1.

That year he was Southeastern conference freshman of the year.

He had some success in PGA but in 2018 he had a bad auto accident suffering 5 broken ribs, a broken left leg and a collapsed lung.  In 2020 he developed medical complications and didn’t play again professionally until 2024 on Korn Ferry tour.

If last 3 events are an indication, he is back playing well.

His history here is ok making 3/4 cuts with a 9th and a 23rd.

Hasnt played here since 2020

Nick Taylor had a long week at Masters.  Cauley rested 

Taylor Made cut at Masters and played the weekend but wasn’t good finished 40 of the 53 guys who made the cut.

Tourneys before that weren’t great MC/MC/31

His history at this course is very bad

Last events he finished 

49/41/MC/MC/58/MC/22/76/74

I suck

bet made total sense but Bradley folded 

I’ll go crawl under a rock

bet a bundle today

Funny Friday I didn’t post and was 4-0

i post and im cursed

seems whenever i post its bad luck

hate to take others down.

if you followed I’m sorry

Im gone 

@Blb

 Didn’t see that

went out for a bit

what did it drop to?

Topic should read Rd4 not Td4

Bradley finishes at Farmers 

2025 T15

2024 T43

2022 2nd

2020 T65

2019 T16

2018 T35

2017 5th

Braey has course history/experience here which is a plus.

He isn’t great but likely better than Greyserman today

Bradley -125 v Greyserman

Rinse and repeat 

going against Greyserman again.  He wasn’t good yesterday but Spaun was crap too.  Greyserman couldn’t hold a 6 stroke advantage over Spaun through 6 so I got an unexpected push

Greyserman has been a pro since 2017 and has 1 Top 10 to his credit 

He isn’t a great putter (ranked worse than average at 127th at -0.27 strokes gained.  He had a great rd2 putting at +6 strokes gained.  Other 2 rounds this week not good.

His history here not great.  This is 2nd appearance.

Was 48th at Farmers 3 weeks ago (Bradley 15th) and the year before Greyserman MC.

Bradley has a good history here.   He was 15th here 3 weeks ago at the Farmers.  Bradley has played here most every year and in 14 appearances he has 8 Top 25.

Bradley recent form last 5 events has 4 Top 15 although he wasn’t good last week at Phoenix where he was 65th.

Greyserman recent form last 3 events 49/WD/48

Yesterday Bradley outstated him 

APP 

Bradley +0.45 Greyserman -1.34

T2G 

Bradley +1.31 Greyserman-1.15

This is a course for the long hitters

Bradley is longer

For season Bradley ranks 33rd (+0.48)

Greyserman ranks 123rd (-0.17)

Rd3 driving

Bradley was +0.91 

Greyserman was -0.63

Anything can happen in 1 round but the likelihood is that Bradley is better today

Miracle push on Spaun 

Spaun missed every putt so far

6’ 

11’

13’

15’

Greyserman made every putt 

26’ from fairway on 1

9’ par on 4

should be closer but not meant to be 

I bet Thompson under 71.5 (+105)

line went to 72.5 (-140) so I bet more

scores are low today (except Spaun who is the worst guy out there)

also added a parlay at +110

rory v McCarthy 

aberg v Rodgers 

hopefully hit these 2 plays cause Spaun is a loser

Sorry If you followed 

Davis Thompson under 71.5 at plus money

+105

For the event through 2 rounds every stat is positive 

3rd in the field APP!!

+0.98 putting 

+1.82 ARG

+1.5 APP

+0.73 OTT

+4.05 T2G

rd1 was in a monsoon and he shot -2 with great stats

+1.90 APP

+4.25 T2G

 
he is legit having a win and 3 runner ups to his record 

-1 in good weather is all I need 

Spaun -110 v Greyserman

Greyserman was +6.06 putting rd2 

Front 9 was -5 and he made everything.  Made 88’ of putts on front
Back 9 back to reality even par with Only bird on back a 24+’ bird putt

Coming into this week Greyserman was playing lousy
Last 3 events 49/wd/48

The 48 was 3 weeks ago at this course for the Farmers where Spaun finished way ahead at 15th

Spaun had a good steady round2

 rd2  stats

APP 

Spaun +0.04 Greyserman -0.83

T2G 

Spaun +1.18 Greyserman -2.27

Ill

also add that

Rd1 weather was awful and Spaun was +6(13) but has clawed his way back

He is -5 the last 23 holes

I don’t see Greyserman putting light out again

Yea the FG would tie if TD and 2 pt conversion which of course lessens odds dramatically 

the point is you likely had a tough loss but Reid made the smart move