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I like Giants +3.5 and 46.5 Over(bovada.lv)
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shawn0319 | 3 |
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QB: NY >>> WAS Giants advantage(Offense): Probably will utilize Eli's air raid and as long as O line can hold a bit, it will give chance for Eli to release TD passes because of weak backfield of Redskins Giants advantage(Defense): Giants have the strongest backfield so far compared to any other team's backfield Kirk Cousins have faced(Jags, Eagles, Texans) Giants backfield should be able to somewhat nullify the air raids of Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins passes. Giants disadvantage(Offense): Giants don't run the ball a whole lot as I would assume that Giants will try to take advantage over poor backfield of Redskins. Also Giants don't have a great line up at the offensive line of scrimmage. The line has to protect Eli Giants disadvantage(Defense): Giants might have difficult time defending against Alfred Morris and the rushing of Redskins offense. Redskins advantage(Offense): They'll have to take advantage over the poor rushing defense of the Giants. The Redskins will have some success with rushing the ball. Redskins advantage(Defense): Redskins have stronger run defense compared to the Giants but they're NOT an elite defense. At the same time, Giants don't run much anyways(which can be a disadvantage for the Redskins) Also Redskins will be able to take advantage of poor line of scrimmage at the offense of the Giants. Redskins disadvantage(Offense): Giants have stronger backfield compared to teams like Jaguars, Texans, and Eagles which they have faced. We'll have to see how effective Kirk Cousin's air raid will be against a stronger backfield of the Giants. If they fail to score via air, they might lose the game because if passing is neutralized then Redskins offense will be one dimensional which will benefit the Giants. Redskins disadvantage(Defense): Their backfield is a big problem as Giants main offense is through the air and I think Redskins will have a lot of trouble with defending the backfield. Conclusion: Redskins have home field advantage and have some advantages but also have disadvantages. If Giants offensive line are able to give some protection to Eli Manning they will have an opportunity to get back at the Redskins. I think this will be a high scoring game and Redskins may look to take it away but Giants won't go down without a fight. I say a fairly close game with slight advantage on Redskins and a chance for Giants to steal the victory at the last minute. |
shawn0319 | 3 |
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Buccs are banged up and have no offense going, they're a total mess.
I thought their defense and run game would be able to give the Falcons at least some trouble and keep the game close. I guess I gotta do a better job balancing out factors regarding roster strength and locker room atmosphere. |
shawn0319 | 9 |
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I thought the same thing after betting on saints week 1, falcons +5.5 week 2.
Falcons can't stop runs and they can't tackle anyone. I like your bet as I like mine. I'm taking Buccs +7 |
LeagueCapper | 209 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KEMPire: Die hard fan here. I know I ask myself the same question. Why? Been a fan since 98, so I stuck with it. Hey 2002 was a glorious year. Terrible start to the year under Lovie Smith. So far the calls has been extremely conservative and questionable. Choked against Derek Anderson (backup) and choked against (Austin Davis) 3rd string QB. The loss to the Rams was pathetic. The pass rush was absolutely horrendous. Imagine what a pissed off Matt Ryan will do with time, who leads the league in Passing yards. Especially after getting beat by Cinci D like that. We made Davis look like a stud.. It was a very winnable game there. QB protection somewhat improved against the Rams but the pass rush was still weak. With Mason Foster out along with Gerald McCoy, I can't see that department improving. One bright spot however in tonights game may be that soft ATL D allowing 154 yards on the ground. Bobby Rainey is a workhorse too. If Tampa can get the passing game going down field to their two top WRs in Evans and V-Jax along with the Rush game, throw in some play action, I think they have a chance of covering. Is this going to happen? More than likely not. Trust me when I say, the Falcons will win this game by more than 6.5 pts. High scoring game. Over looks good here too. 31-20. my prediction. Best of luck bettors. Atlanta has really soft D so Buccs have some chance if they can get Bobby Rainey to get going with the running. |
KEMPire | 10 |
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Well Overall, Buccs have stronger line on both side of the ball but who is going to lead the Buccs offense? Martin is questionable to play tonight. I know Falcons defense is just down right awful :/
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shawn0319 | 4 |
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Do Buccs offense generally favor runs for offense or balanced? Falcons are very vulnerable in defense. If Doug Martin is able to play they will give the Falcons some problems. Buccs have good defense up front too. What do you think?
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shawn0319 | 4 |
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replied to
Why is it that the teams I pick that I don't bet on wins games and the ones I make the bets on loses
in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie: Never bet on your gut feelings. You have to look at the lines. I was thinking hard about this NYY/TB. After analyzing the game looking at pitchers, batting lineups and also any media release I concluded that NYY was going to win. However when I looked at the lines Vegas was offering me a very tasty line where NYY were dogs. If a line Vegas gives you is too good to be true - more often than not it's a trap. I took Rays for this game. Not over yet but looking good so far. Tell me more about Vegas line traps :( |
shawn0319 | 21 |
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replied to
Why is it that the teams I pick that I don't bet on wins games and the ones I make the bets on loses
in MLB Betting
Is there a pattern to catch? if you fade the public, you'll only win sometimes. This is so frustrating and tilting.
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shawn0319 | 21 |
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replied to
Why is it that the teams I pick that I don't bet on wins games and the ones I make the bets on loses
in MLB Betting
I only bet on NYY because they've lost 2 in a row and they were due and they're losing AGAIN, my only bet of the night.
I try to breakdown the game and try to analyze, trying to weigh in different factors and it's always the wrong factors that take up greater effect in the game and I'm in my WORST losing streak ever. Seriously. I'm so frustrated. I'm losing a lot of money so far but it's only the bankroll that I put aside so I have plenty of savings and I don't bet for living so I can afford to lose but seriously How can I make the wrong picks all the time? When I bet, Wainwright, Kershaw, Felix Hernandez loses. Jesus christ. |
shawn0319 | 21 |
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created a topic
Why is it that the teams I pick that I don't bet on wins games and the ones I make the bets on loses
in MLB Betting
I don't get it. I had a feeling PIT, STL, NYY was going to win but seriously NYY is losing.
I had the worst streaks of recent and I usually NEVER do well on baseball and this is my first bet IN A LONG TIME in baseball and I'm LOSING AGAIN. Why is that? |
shawn0319 | 21 |
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replied to
90% of us are losers in long term. Are there any secret sources for insights on winning?
in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by MagicMan64: First thing I would ask are you keeping a journal of your bets, especially the losing bets. Examine your bets and see if their is a pattern to your losing. For example I noticed you took the Jags. I would have advised you to skip that selection. Garbage in Garbage Out. If you do not think a team has a reasonable chance to win the game, skip that play. I also recommend you skip bets where both teams are below average. I check several power rankings from various people, and if both teams consistently appear, I skip that game and move on. The next thing to do is play to your betting style. I am steady freddy card counting player who looks for quality or to go against the lesser team. I am a technical handicapper, and sometimes see nuggets in a box score. Some players look for line value. Other guys are comfortable with an aggressive style. This season I am also practicing on my fundamental handicapping by doing practice entries for The LVH Superbook contest. I am not doing well, but the practice will pay off in the long run. Practice doing game breakdowns. State how and why a team will win or an edge or disadvantage that will be a factor in winning or losing. I am also going to critique your picks on a follow up post. Yes I'm doing that now for every games I'm betting on before and after the game, pregame and reviews. Thanks for the golden advice |
shawn0319 | 49 |
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Yankees bet was a steal! Yankees were due for a win and Pineda seems to be a solid pitcher!
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shawn0319 | 1 |
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There are number of injuries on Tampa Bay squad. We'll have to see.
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shawn0319 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RichieRich97: Mike Evans May give Atlanta some problems too. However Doug Martin may not play. Overall I agree that TB should be the pick at +7. They also are desperate for a win Where can I get the injury updates? jesus espn.go.com was easy to use. They make everything so complicated now :( |
shawn0319 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MagicMan64: I have started looking at defensive potential first as fault lines for a bet failing. Washington, Chicago, and Dallas have good offense at times, but you lose the cover because of their bad defenses. You might want to check out the massey ratings website. massery ratings? I usually look at stats from espn.go.com and madden player ratings. It gives me an idea which position of which players might cause the damage. If there are better ways to analyze let me know. Thanks. |
shawn0319 | 12 |
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Um no one? everyone wants to bet and gamble but no one wants to analyze and make readings for the game? not even a single reply :(
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shawn0319 | 12 |
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Tampabay's defense is too good to pass on Tampa +7 has great value. With small amount, I'd give it a shot on gambling with Tampa ML
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DakinePR808 | 3 |
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I would weigh DEFENSE, and HOME advantage at the HIGHEST VALUE in terms of factors for the game. Then overall team strength THEN offensive strength of the team.
Are there any other suggestions? |
shawn0319 | 12 |
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I'll start with Tampabay@Atlanta(-7)
Defensive comparisons edges: Front 7: Tampabay - Tampabay has better defensive tackles, ends, and better linebackers. Secondaries: Tampabay - Tampabay has slight edge with better CB, okay SS and FS. Falcons only have okay SS and their FS sucks. I give slight edge to Tampabay. Offensive Comparison edges: Offensive line of scrimmage: Tampabay - similar but separated by Logan Mankins. He gives Tampabay a better protection for their QB Running game: Tampabay - Doug Martins > Steven Jackson. Jackson is more durable guy, Martins is faster. Slot receivers: THEY BOTH SUCK - I'm checking the updated Madden roster and I don't see any TE of rating with 80 or better on either of them. Wide Receivers: Atlanta - 2 great weapons of Falcons: Julio Jones and Roddy White. But Tampabay also has Vincent Jackson but Atlanta has clear edge on the receiving end. Overall best value: Tampabay +7 I know Atlanta has okay running game but Tampabay's linebackers and defensive line of scrimmage are decent. They also have decent secondary as well. As far as WR advantage goes, WR are most overrated position in football so I would take Tampabay. If Mathias played last night Colts would've won it for sure in my opinion. If you have other views and thoughts PLEASE SHARE WITH ME. I'm not the best at match up evaluations and I can certainly pick up a lot to make better bets. |
shawn0319 | 12 |
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