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@Lightfoot10 Apologies Nostradamus! Not Neutral but not the normal home court |
shoebox_811 | 15 |
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The Golden Eagles are 37th in the nation on 3-point percentage allowed and top 10 in turnover rate on defense.
The recent trend for this matchup favors Marquette and with this being on a neutral site, the home edge is gone.
Pick: Marquette -1.5 -110 (6 units) YTD: 14-7 +1040 |
shoebox_811 | 15 |
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Fun stat: USC has the 9th best two point fg percentage on the road in all of college this year.
I think this one goes up and down at Marylands pace. Play: USC/Maryland over 155 -110 (4 units) YTD: 13-7 +640 |
shoebox_811 | 1 |
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Adding Miss St. -2.5 full game -110 (8 units) |
shoebox_811 | 4 |
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Texas A&M ranks 1st in the country in offensive rebound % and 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency. What are they NOT good at? Putting the ball in the bucket - A&M ranks 302nd in FG % and 315th in 3 point %.
Miss St. looked very impressive with their 10 point win over Ole Miss on Saturday night and is ranks 64th in the nation in PPG. Hubbard is a dynamic guard and a huge part of their offense. They came up short at home against Kentucky and Bama so far but it’s something to note that those losses were 5 points or less. A&M is the more complete team and I tend to side with rebounding and defense above all else but I like this spot for Miss St. This game might come down to rebounds at the end and who gets the stops but I think Miss St. comes out on fire to start. Play: Miss St. first half -1.5 -105 (6 units) YTD: 12-7 +470 |
shoebox_811 | 4 |
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@buffer When I was a kid, I used to keep all my important stuff in a shoebox under my bed. Since then if I have any tags or handles i use that. Nothing major. Symbolic to me i guess. |
shoebox_811 | 5 |
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The Wildcats beat Baylor just a month ago at home by double digits. Baylor has been tough at home this season at a 12-1 record. Baylor played just 7 players this past Saturday in their win over West Virginia. Zona coming off of back-to-back losses will look to not extend that streak. Caleb Love had 17 points in the loss but was 1-8 from three and produced 5 turnovers. Zona might be the better defensive team, but I like the home advantage here with Baylor. The Wildcats are far too reliant on Love to score the ball. Baylor has 3 wins this year over top 25 teams and tonight, they look to make it 4. Pick: Baylor ML -140 (4 units) YTD: 12-6 +1030
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shoebox_811 | 5 |
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Louisville ranks 54th in the nation in PPG and 23rd in total rebounds. They have 5 players who avg. over 12 points a game led by Chucky Hepburn. Notre Dame ranks 50th in 3 point % and is led by Burton who is a big reason for that. He also shoots 45% from the field. Neither team is a threat under the paint from a block shot perspective. Louisville is looking to sneak into a top 25 ranking after today but I think Notre has an enough to keep it close and hit some key shots at the end. Play: Louisville / Notre Dame over 145 -110 (4 units) YTD: 12-4 +2020 |
shoebox_811 | 4 |
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Both teams combined for 113 points in their first match this season. In Big East games St. Johns is tops in Def. efficiency with Creighton close by at number 3.
St. John's has seen 6 of the last 8 fall to the under while Creighton has gone under in 6 of their last 8.
I backed the under for St. Johns last game at Nova which went over. Still staying on the under for this one.
Play: Creighton / St. John's under 142 -110 (5 units) YTD: 12-4 +2020 |
shoebox_811 | 4 |
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Primetime game between No. 1 & 2nd ranked teams. Both of these offenses are in the 99th percentile in offensive efficiency. You would expect Bruce pearls Tigers to have the better defense and rely on trying to slow down Bama. If you watched the Texas / Bama game this week, Rodney Terry tried to do the same but ultimately (like everyone else) had to play at Alabamas pace. I don’t see that changing in this game. Look for the score to be in the high 80’s or low 90’s with a small chance at OT. Play: Auburn / Alabama over 174 -110 (4 units) YTD: 10-4 +1220 |
shoebox_811 | 5 |
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Baylor sits 304th in adjusted tempo while West Virginia is 331st. Difference between the 2 teams on their snails pace is that Baylor has been more efficient hence their higher ppg avg. Baylors defense is awful relative to their pace in giving up easy buckets off of assists. I think West Virginia does enough early to stay in this one. Not sure if it’s enough to win but I see a close game down to the end. I give the under a look as well but see more value with the 8.5. Play: West Virginia +8.5 -110 (4 units) YTD: 10-4 +1320 |
shoebox_811 | 5 |
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@D-Town |
shoebox_811 | 5 |
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UCLA Bruins are 7-1 in their last 8 games and 5-3 ATS during that stretch. They also give up 64.6 ppg and have a +4.9 turnover margin. Their defense should give the Hoosiers problems since they play mostly in the paint.
The Hoosiers Ballo was suppose to make a huge impact on this team making a tourney run this year and I’m guessing got a nice NIL bag. But he’s been underperforming and averaging 8 ppg in his last 3 games. I saw this line sitting at UCLA -3 before it opened and really like the value. It’s tough to know how the Hoosiers mindset after a big upset over the Spartans just days ago. They also just found out Woodson won’t be back next year. Play: UCLA ML -125 (5 units) YTD: 9-4 +720 |
shoebox_811 | 5 |
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The Red Storm give up 86.6 points per 100 possessions which ranks 2nd in the nation. Winners of 10 straight, they play suffocating defense and don’t make boxing out fun for anyone. One thing they don’t do well, hit beyond the arc. They have shot 20% in 3 of the last 5 games. The Wildcats do 2 things very well, the free throw line and 3 points line. Winners of 2 straight they will look to avenge their loss to St. Johns earlier this year at MSG. I think Pitino watches that tape on the first game and should tighten up on the 3 point D. I side with a grind out game and tend to look for unders where we get a close game at the end where it tightens up. Play: St. Johns / Villanova under 139.5 -110 (4 units) YTD: 9-2 +1820 |
shoebox_811 | 2 |
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Correction *151.5
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shoebox_811 | 10 |
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The Sooners true shooting pct. 69.6% ranks 98th in the nation and 1st in the conference. This metric measures efficiency from the field, FT line, and from the 3 point line. What is the Sooners weakness? They don’t rebound the basketball. They rank 329th in total rebounds. Missouri should have no problem producing extra possessions given the fact that the Sooners turnover rate sits at 16%. Meaning they give the ball up once every 6 possessions. This game isn’t going to be a track meet but I’ll take the gamble that it’s sure close to one. Even if Mizzou pulls away, the Sooners should still stay efficient. Pick: Oklahoma / Missouri over 151 -110 (6 units)
YYD: 9-2 +1820 |
shoebox_811 | 10 |
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Rodney Terry and the Texas Longhorns now find themselves on the bubble after 2 consecutive losses to Arkansas and Vandy. Texas is a middle of the pack team in every category including their record. It took a 20 point comeback to beat A&M and their body of work is underwhelming to say the least. But why? They have a future nba player star in Tre Johnson, a physical offensive piece in Kaluma, Mark & Pope are capable of 15 points any given night. I think a big part to their early struggle and is Terry scheduling a cupcake non-conference schedule in which they started the season 11-2. Texas played the 350th non conference schedule with 5 teams ranked outside the top 300. i think Terry can take a page from Ole Miss when they held bama to 64 points and 21 turnovers 4 weeks ago. Turn this into a physical and ugly game in which Texas has no problem playing in the half court and letting Tre go to work. I don’t usually put much stock into look ahead games but it’s worth a bite. Play: Texas +4.5 -110 (4 units) YTD: 8-1 +1860
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shoebox_811 | 2 |
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* 4-unit play
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shoebox_811 | 6 |
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Rebounding will be what determines this game. Gators are poised to make a big run and possibly have a shot at the SEC title after a big win Saturday at Auburn. Florida ranks 2nd in the nation in rebounds and Miss St. is 33rd. Both teams struggle at the free throw line and from the arc. This one comes down to pace for me. This arena will be buzzing and Miss. St. Will want to control the pace (200th in adjusted tempo). Play: Florida / Miss St. under 153.5 YTD: 8-1 +1860 |
shoebox_811 | 6 |
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@Jdawg8899 It went to -6 an hour ago and now I’m seeing it at 4.5 Best guess is Vegas wants to even out and there’s some money going toward UNC. We will see how it plays out but 4.5 sounds like a great line, obviously. |
shoebox_811 | 14 |
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