sparty_31

Locked in a few more

ECU +3 first half- 105 for 100

Davidson -1.5 first half- 105 for 100

UConn -3.5 first half- 110 for 100

Just saw some trends that made the first half stronger plays for ECU and UConn.  Still planning on throwing 1 or 2 units more on Davidson for full game too.

28-21 posted plays this year, haven't posted in a while though.

Taking a couple ML plays that have hit a very high percentage that follow a few metrics I track.

South Carolina- 200 for 220

South Carolina +.5 first half- 105 for 100

Marist- 100 for 145

Also leaning on UConn -6.5, ECU +6 and heavy lean on Davidson -2.5.  Just waiting to see if the line moves down in my favor but would be happy to take FG at -3 and first half too.

I definitely don't have anything to talk you down from Drake other than the funny line movement.  I've actually seen a ton of guys on Drake that I respect but it goes against all the data that I typically rely on to make a play (reverse line movement and when favorites are a public underdog).

Just checked out both the stats in their two earlier games this year.  A couple interesting findings

-Bradley totally dominated the boards in both games

-Drake shot lights out in both games

-In one of Drake's wins they shot 14-14 from the line (in the 6 point win at home)

Out of the stats above, the rebounding edge is the most predictable event to happen again.  The shooting could come and go though so that's why i'm thinking this line is where it's at.

Could easily see Drake shoot well again and win.  I'll be pulling for that for you but will be on the sidelines myself.

On the Drake game, it looks like movement has taken that from a 1.5 point fav to a 1 point dog, all while the public is heavy on Drake???

I've seen this a few times in the last two weeks and it's not good news for Drake.  For me the play would definitely be on Bradley but I value your opinion a ton so interested if you have any specific thoughts as to why Drake. 

After initially looking this game up I really liked EMU.  Very strong home team playing a Buffalo squad who was flying high early in the year but hasn't played great as of late, especially on the road.

My initial concern was everyone being on EMU already from the concensus picks.  Now the line has moved from -1.5 to Buffalo being favored by 1. 

I'm looking for any outside insight as to what could drive that line movement.  Anyone more familiar with Buffalo that can provide some thoughts on this game?

Thanks in advance.

I've been tracking every game that has a 60% betting public for the past 3 months.  I've collected all kinds of data to be able to sort through including opening and closing line (for line movement), major conference vs small schools, winning against spread and winning straight up and home/away.  I've got over 600 games on here now.

I've found a few trends that perform really well but if you purely go against the public you will be straddling 50% for sure.  The first is to bet ON the favorite when the public is saying the underdog will win.  It's very rare to see this and they are hitting at 65% clip.

The second one is to take an away underdog when the spread is under 5 points.  They are winning straight up at 48% of the time for a profitable overally play.  You'll get about 10% return on your betting unit.  So if you bet $100 every play and there are 5 games a day that qualify you'll be making $50 per day.

I haven't been able to find anything to change my mind so I'm locking these plays in.  Risking most of the money I've made in the last month on these plays.

Detroit -6, 330=300

Detroit -3 Half, 220=200

Oakland +2.5, 220=200

Oakland ML, 150=187

Oakland 1Half +1.5,  220=200

Army +5.5, 275=250

Army +3, 230=200

Parlay Oakland +3/Army +5.5/Delaware St +12.5, 50=250

Parlay 1st HALF- Oak +1.5/Army +3/Detroit -3, 50=291

Also adding Syracuse/UNC Under 64.5 1st Half, 110=100

Here's to a big day!! 

Nobody else has any comments about these games?  I hate feeling this confident because that usually means I'm missing something.  Really looking to get the devils advocate take on these games to make sure I'm not just seeing what I want to.

Thanks in advance!

So with a limited set of games tonight three stand out as very strong plays.

Detroit -5.5-

They typically play very strong at home and have played an incredible schedule against tough competition.  Wright St is down 3 of their top 7 scorers, including their best overall player by far JT Yoho.  They've played two games without him and lost at home to Valpo by 10 and at Milwaukee by 26, failing to cover each by a wide margin. One of the other 3 injured guys went out in the beginning of their last game.

This screams to pound Detroit.  Am I missing something?

Army +5.5-

American is a very low scoring team who plays almost all games down to the wire.  They have only two wins all year by more than 4 points, home or away, and that's not going against great competition.  Compare that to Army who's played a much tougher schedule wins against Air Force, VMI and at USC.  Army also scores a lot of points so they can crawl back into the game if they get down at some point.

Again, why would we not hammer Army?  I see a lot of people on the board picking American so please share your rationale.

Oakland +2

This is the third game I like a lot but not to the extent of the previous 2.  Oakland plays well at home with wins over Green Bay and Valpo in recent weeks.  They did lose at Clev St a few weeks back but only by 4.  Two players who performed well in that game are likely out in this one.  Marlin Mason is questionable with illness and had 11 and 8 the first meeting and Artis Yates is out after having 14 points against them.

Again, what's the play for Clev St here?  Oakland seems like a very strong play.

Thoughts would be much appreciated before I hammer all three of these.

Thanks and BOL tonight! 

I have been super busy and haven't been able to get on here and post my plays for a few days but I'm sure none of you have missed them anyway!

YTD Posted Sides are 19-14 (+48 units) and my underdog ML system posts are 11-1 (-18 units)

Sides

Notre Dame -10 for 11 units

Arizona -3.5 for 11 units

Northern Colorado +8 for 22 units

Providence -2 for 22 units

TN Martin +8 for 11 units

W Kentucky +1.5 for 11 units

TN Tech E for 11 units

SIUE -4.5 for 11 units

Arkansas St +8 for 11 units

ML System

UC Davis

Southern Utah

South Alabama

Washington

Arizona State

BOL on your picks

Updated system record YTD is 9-7, up 6.7 units (units are $10)

Regular side plays YTD 15-8, up 101.7 units

ML Play

Texas St for 5 units

Furman for 5 units

Rhode Island for 5 units

Drexel for 5 units

Ark Little Rock for 5 units

BYU for 10 units

UC Santa Barbara for 5 units

Portland for 5 units

TN Tech for 5 units

Regular Side Plays

Davidson +1 for 22 units

Central Mich ML for 10 units

Dayton -14.5 for 22 units

NC State -1.5 for 22 units

Wisc Green Bay -5 for 11 units

Ball State +9.5 for 11 units

Utah +5.5 for 22 units

E Illinois +6 for 11 units

Washington St -1 for 11 units

Indiana St -2.5 for 11 units

Good luck with all the games today!  Lots to choose from so let's all get some wins!

I didn't think any of the games were going to fall into the system today but St. Francis is now qualifying.

St Francis ML $50=$70

This system is hitting 51%  (65 total qualified games so far)

Good Luck!

I've been collecting data on all games that fit a certain mold related to public betting and have found some really good angles.  I've got a few plays hitting those today and then some others I just happen to like.

System Plays- YTD Record on these are 7-3

Washington Wiz -10, 220=200

Memphis -6, 220=200

New Orleans -6.5, 220-200

Also have a few other plays that don't fit the profile but I still like a lot.

Non System Plays- YTD Record 2-2

Atlanta +1, 110=100

Golden State -2.5, 110=100

Detroit -1.5, 110=100

Best of luck tonight!

Finished the night at 8-3 on sides for +65 unit gain with another +15 units on my underdog ML system that went 5-2.

Looking at today don't see any games to play.  Probably just an NBA night only.

Having a good night so far.  Hit on 5 of 7 of my underdog ML plays for a nice 15.3 unit night.

Pending a few more games I'm sitting at 6-3 and up 42 units.  Hopefully Pepperdine and Washington St can add to it before the night is over!

Hope everyone else is having a good night as well!

YTD Sides 7-5 (+38 units)

YTD Dog ML System Plays 3-5 (-15.7 units)

Lost 20 units yesterday on the ML from Iowa State when taking the points would have won.  Only the third time one of these ML bets lost the game but not the spread so I'm rolling with it some more.  The stats still show it hitting at 50%+ and profitable over the last 60 qualified games.

ML System Plays

ETSU for 5 units

Ark St for 5 units

Rider for 5 units

Weber St for 5 units

TN Martin for 5 units

La Lafette for 5 units

Idaho St for 5 units

Non System Plays

Wash St ML for 5 units

Florida -15.5 for 11 units

Citadel +8 for 11 units

WKU -4 for 11 units

Richmond +7.5 for 11 units

E. Illinois +10 for 22 units

SIUE +7.5 for 11 units

Murray St -8.5 for 11 units

Nebraska +14.5 for 11 units

Utah -5 for 22 units

Pepperdine +11.5 for 11 units

Good luck!