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replied to Why is american football so boring? in NFL Betting The NFL gets worse and worse every year. The only reason I watch the damn games is because I bet on them. I loved playing football in hs, but holy garbage are these games tough to watch. Always some dumb fukc committing a stupid penalty or a ref throwing a phantom flag, and don't get me started on the roughing the passer flags these days. God forbid you brush up against Tom Brady. They'll throw a flag if you fart in his general direction. View Post \| View Thread	BrummieViking	58	February 01, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why Not Close the Roof at Century Link Stadium with pouring rain? in NFL Betting View Post \| View Thread	smallbill	15	January 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Las Vegas Sportsbetting Taxes and TSA in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by ALTABLOCK: only thing in the casino you have to pay taxes, is 300 to 1 odds wins. straight bets cannot be taxed. i live and work in vegas for 20 years. The IRS would disagree with you. That 300 or more odds thing is only for horse racing, and only if your total winnings for that ticket exceeds $600. It depends on the state regarding filling out tax forms, but I came in 3rd in a poker tournament in Atlantic City for $5600 and I had to fill out a form. But even if they don't require you to fill out a form you are expected (by law) to claim the winnings as taxable income on your next tax filings. You can also claim any gambling losses as tax deductions, but cannot exceed the amount of your winnings. https://blog.turbotax.intuit.com/2014/09/09/sports-gambling-and-how-your-winnings-are-taxed-2/ View Post \| View Thread	DonChrono	9	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday in NFL Betting Love them both. Good luck View Post \| View Thread	amd	47	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to An open ended parlay with Seahawks ML pays +142 in NFL Betting I think you would be better off taking them now. Right now bovada has them +125 to win the super bowl. If you do the open parlay you will most likely get worse odds. Bovada has Sea -3 if they play NE and -6.5 if they play Indy. Best case your odds would be -150 if they play NE. Then your parlay would pay about +115. If Sea ends up playing Indy they would probably be about -275 so you'd be looking at about -130 on your parlay. Granted, these are odds from bovada and using my guestimates for what Sea ml would be in the Super Bowl. View Post \| View Thread	Action_Junkee	2	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Question in NFL Betting Question: what do you do if Packers win? View Post \| View Thread	bigdoug	6	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Best Bet Sunday? in NFL Betting Like both sides. Playing both ml too. GL View Post \| View Thread	Unstoppable Force	36	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colts linebacker charged with rape.... in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear: Was not butt hurt at all, not sure why you thought that? You actually had me wondering if lol meant something different in America because the use of it made no sense, unless you're just a little giggler and that's fine. I don't see how anyone could get confused, it reads his position in the headline and anyone with half a brain that is interested in knowing who he is can type in his name and simply view his role in the team. LOL Haha no worries. I guess I felt the need to point out his more regular role because I'd reckon most covers users are lazy, and lack the half a brain you assume they have. View Post \| View Thread	Polar_Bear	15	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colts linebacker charged with rape.... in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear: No actually he is a linebacker just as the news headline reads. He is a linebacker who backs up at his position and like most in that role is a special teams player as well. Not sure why the lol unless you're laughing at yourself for not being able to read a simple news headline. And what position he plays is not the point of the post, it was simply to share the information. If something like this is to hurt a team it is more likely to be because it can be a huge distraction not because of the physical loss of the player. Not sure why you got so butt hurt. Was it really the "lol"? It must mean something different in Canada. I just thought I should mention that so people were not confused and think he was actually one of Indy's starting linebackers. LOL. View Post \| View Thread	Polar_Bear	15	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Conference Champs NFC in NFL Betting Last time Percy Harvin and Zack Miller accounted for 10 catches for over 100yds. Harvin also had 4 rushes for 41 yards. They will be without both of those players plus their fastest wr, Richardson. I haven't seen anyone mention this obvious point. This will be a completely different game than week 1. View Post \| View Thread	Hovanes	22	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colts linebacker charged with rape.... in NFL Betting He's a special teams player lol View Post \| View Thread	Polar_Bear	15	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21: Bill Belicheck has gone 12-4 or better his last 5 seasons & has won 3 Super Bowls. Name me another coach in the NFL who's done that. Browner being one of the best CBs in the NFL is a little bit of an exagerration but he's good enough to cover Indy's no. 2. Revis will be all over Hilton. Fleener is going to have to step up big for the Colts. It's not like the Colts have a running game anyway but if they try to run it'll be stuffed. The Colts are one-dimensional in this game and the Pats are not. The Pats had 500+ yards vs them last game & 246 came on the ground. Balance, my friends. The Colts don't have that. Brady will have time in the pocket & when he does he's usually pretty good. Indy's defense is overrated coming into this game after their performance against Andy Dalton (no AJ Green) & Marvin "Big Game" Lewis. Peyton Manning is a 39 year old man playing w/ a torn quad for f*ck sake. OP, do a 6-point teaser. It's your best value. You won't need the 6.5. Simply stating that their defense is overrated is a bit lazy. Jeremy Hill came into that game as one of the hottest running backs in the nfl and Indy completely shut him down. Same with Cj Anderson. He gained 80 yds on 20 carries, and aside from his one 20+ yd run was stuffed the entire game. I'm not trying to argue that the Colts are going to crush the Pats this weekend. All I'm saying is that the Colts are playing some great football on both sides of the ball and the Patriots are not unbeatable. I don't think it's ridiculous to think that the Colts can win this weekend. View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to I Did a Seahawks Vs Pats Superbowl +500 in NFL Betting I'm not a huge fan of hedging (unless it's a substantial amount of $$), but you have a great opportunity since you have both heavy favorites at a decent price. But better yet, you have a great opportunity to middle. Personally, I would put in a straight bet on Packers +7.5. You could very well win the straight bet and your future could still be alive. I think both games will be closer than most people think, with both dogs capable of pulling off the upset. I know most people here are predicting two blowouts by the favorites (what else is new), but great qb's like Rodgers and Luck have the ability to take over a game and beat any team any given Sunday. GL View Post \| View Thread	jriv189	10	January 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21: True. The Pats are actually better this year than they've been in the past. They've added two of the best CBs in the NFL in Revis & Browner. They have a healthy Gronk & Wilfork for a change. They have a balanced attack & WRs who catch the football. They have the best HC left in the playoffs. Browner is one of the best CBs in the NFL? lol. He actually has an average coverage grade this season. Revis is great, but the Colts will have the best CB in this game in Vontae Davis. Wilfork??? What impact do you expect him to have this game? Indy will be passing the ball all game and Wilfork is a run stopper. He has exactly ZERO sacks this season. He will be a huge (pun intended) waste of space this game. And what exactly has the "best HC left in the playoffs" done since he's been caught cheating? View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why is the consensus to bet low volume? in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by RefereeSystem: This is coming from a ex poker player. I dont know if you guys are aware of this, but some of the best players played 16 tables at once. The theory was that if you are a winning player, you want to maximize volume. Say I can win $10/hr playing 1 table. If I can play 2 tables, I can win each table at $9/hr due to be having less efficient decision making. The goal is to maximize win rate * tables. How is this different in sports betting? Wouldn't the goal be to maximize games * win rate? This is why I dont understand when people say "just play 3 games a day". If your first three games can win at 70% and your fourth at 60%, why not play the fourth too? Theory dictates that you should play every game with a perceived EV of higher than your break even rate (52.38% for -110). Why isnt the consensus to volume bet? Because in poker (if you're a decent player), you get your money in with a very high probability of winning, or at least the correct pot odds to make calling a long-term profitable play (+EV). In sports betting you theoretically have a 50/50 chance of winning, yet you are always playing at -EV because of the vig. Think of it this way: we agree to flip a coin and every time you win I give you $100, but every time I win you give me $110. Would you play that game? Of course you could argue that you can find an edge by doing research and breaking down match ups. Even if you could do that, you would only be able to do so much research per day, so you wouldn't be able to find an edge in every game on the board. And even if you find an edge, how much of advantage does it really give you? 5%? 10%? And then there's the fact that you still need to win at a rate that beats the vig. The vig kills you long-term. IMO It's better to be very selective and choose games where you think you've found a significant advantage. These situations usually come up when public perception has a big influence and bookmakers need to set a line that will get close to 50/50 action, regardless of the matchup disparities. A good example of that was Ohio st +7 vs Oregon the other night. View Post \| View Thread	RefereeSystem	20	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21: Just because the Colts beat a hurt, & old Peyton Manning doesn't mean they'll win in Foxborough. The Colts have lost 59-24, 42-20, & 43-21 in their last 3 games vs the Pats. Not sure why you think they have a shot now... This is the most complete Pats team in years.The Colts can't stop the run (470 in their L2 games given up on ground to Pats) and they don't have a running game. Colts will be one dimensional. The Pats have the better defense, the better coach, & the better rushing attack. Not sure why you think Colts have a chance to win ML. Pats own their soul & have a healthy Gronkowski. Brady is 100% healthy. Peyton was playing w/ a torn quad. Vontae Davis is the best player on the Colts D, but he can only cover 1 guy. Belichick will own Chuck Pagano's soul once again. The Pats can run AND pass on the Colts. This will allow the Colts to bite on the Play-action and get hurt in a big way. And if past performances guaranteed future returns we would all be rich. View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting I'm pretty much in the same situation...Before the playoffs I put in a future that the SB matchup would be Colts vs Packers 100 to win 5000. I also put in a separate bet Colts to win AFC 100 to win 1400. I've thought about ways to hedge, but I don't think I'm going to. If I change my mind and decide to hedge, it will probably be a ml parlay. Don't do a teaser like the other guy mentioned unless you can get a 7pt teaser for better than -130 (at that point it would actually give you better odds than the parlay). The way I look at it is that it's only $200, and hedging is never a good move mathematically. Now, if GB wins the early game I will probably look to catch a live bet on Pats ml for a good price (hopefully Indy gets a lead at some point in the game). That's what I did for my Indy ml + Ohio st ml parlay the other day. I got Ore ml +170 in game for a very small hedge (only covered the cost of my wager). Good luck with whatever you decide...I think GB and Indy both have a great chance of winning View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to A mega prediction in NFL Betting I agree. The Colts have looked like the best team in the playoffs thus far, so I don't think it's too far fetched. View Post \| View Thread	MoonMan36	5	January 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Real National Championship in College Football You clearly have mental issues. I hope your family gets you the help you need. View Post \| View Thread	Metro413	8	January 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Packers 260 moneyline it is. in NFL Betting Would love for this to happen. I put in a future for SB matchup to be Colts/Packers before the playoffs 100 to win 5k. I think GB defense will need to step up big time for this to happen bc Rodgers looked really hobbled out there Sunday. View Post \| View Thread	tootskie	4	January 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Why is american football so boring? in NFL Betting The NFL gets worse and worse every year. The only reason I watch the damn games is because I bet on them. I loved playing football in hs, but holy garbage are these games tough to watch. Always some dumb fukc committing a stupid penalty or a ref throwing a phantom flag, and don't get me started on the roughing the passer flags these days. God forbid you brush up against Tom Brady. They'll throw a flag if you fart in his general direction. View Post \| View Thread	BrummieViking	58	February 01, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why Not Close the Roof at Century Link Stadium with pouring rain? in NFL Betting View Post \| View Thread	smallbill	15	January 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Las Vegas Sportsbetting Taxes and TSA in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by ALTABLOCK: only thing in the casino you have to pay taxes, is 300 to 1 odds wins. straight bets cannot be taxed. i live and work in vegas for 20 years. The IRS would disagree with you. That 300 or more odds thing is only for horse racing, and only if your total winnings for that ticket exceeds $600. It depends on the state regarding filling out tax forms, but I came in 3rd in a poker tournament in Atlantic City for $5600 and I had to fill out a form. But even if they don't require you to fill out a form you are expected (by law) to claim the winnings as taxable income on your next tax filings. You can also claim any gambling losses as tax deductions, but cannot exceed the amount of your winnings. https://blog.turbotax.intuit.com/2014/09/09/sports-gambling-and-how-your-winnings-are-taxed-2/ View Post \| View Thread	DonChrono	9	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday in NFL Betting Love them both. Good luck View Post \| View Thread	amd	47	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to An open ended parlay with Seahawks ML pays +142 in NFL Betting I think you would be better off taking them now. Right now bovada has them +125 to win the super bowl. If you do the open parlay you will most likely get worse odds. Bovada has Sea -3 if they play NE and -6.5 if they play Indy. Best case your odds would be -150 if they play NE. Then your parlay would pay about +115. If Sea ends up playing Indy they would probably be about -275 so you'd be looking at about -130 on your parlay. Granted, these are odds from bovada and using my guestimates for what Sea ml would be in the Super Bowl. View Post \| View Thread	Action_Junkee	2	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Question in NFL Betting Question: what do you do if Packers win? View Post \| View Thread	bigdoug	6	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Best Bet Sunday? in NFL Betting Like both sides. Playing both ml too. GL View Post \| View Thread	Unstoppable Force	36	January 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colts linebacker charged with rape.... in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear: Was not butt hurt at all, not sure why you thought that? You actually had me wondering if lol meant something different in America because the use of it made no sense, unless you're just a little giggler and that's fine. I don't see how anyone could get confused, it reads his position in the headline and anyone with half a brain that is interested in knowing who he is can type in his name and simply view his role in the team. LOL Haha no worries. I guess I felt the need to point out his more regular role because I'd reckon most covers users are lazy, and lack the half a brain you assume they have. View Post \| View Thread	Polar_Bear	15	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colts linebacker charged with rape.... in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear: No actually he is a linebacker just as the news headline reads. He is a linebacker who backs up at his position and like most in that role is a special teams player as well. Not sure why the lol unless you're laughing at yourself for not being able to read a simple news headline. And what position he plays is not the point of the post, it was simply to share the information. If something like this is to hurt a team it is more likely to be because it can be a huge distraction not because of the physical loss of the player. Not sure why you got so butt hurt. Was it really the "lol"? It must mean something different in Canada. I just thought I should mention that so people were not confused and think he was actually one of Indy's starting linebackers. LOL. View Post \| View Thread	Polar_Bear	15	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Conference Champs NFC in NFL Betting Last time Percy Harvin and Zack Miller accounted for 10 catches for over 100yds. Harvin also had 4 rushes for 41 yards. They will be without both of those players plus their fastest wr, Richardson. I haven't seen anyone mention this obvious point. This will be a completely different game than week 1. View Post \| View Thread	Hovanes	22	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colts linebacker charged with rape.... in NFL Betting He's a special teams player lol View Post \| View Thread	Polar_Bear	15	January 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21: Bill Belicheck has gone 12-4 or better his last 5 seasons & has won 3 Super Bowls. Name me another coach in the NFL who's done that. Browner being one of the best CBs in the NFL is a little bit of an exagerration but he's good enough to cover Indy's no. 2. Revis will be all over Hilton. Fleener is going to have to step up big for the Colts. It's not like the Colts have a running game anyway but if they try to run it'll be stuffed. The Colts are one-dimensional in this game and the Pats are not. The Pats had 500+ yards vs them last game & 246 came on the ground. Balance, my friends. The Colts don't have that. Brady will have time in the pocket & when he does he's usually pretty good. Indy's defense is overrated coming into this game after their performance against Andy Dalton (no AJ Green) & Marvin "Big Game" Lewis. Peyton Manning is a 39 year old man playing w/ a torn quad for f*ck sake. OP, do a 6-point teaser. It's your best value. You won't need the 6.5. Simply stating that their defense is overrated is a bit lazy. Jeremy Hill came into that game as one of the hottest running backs in the nfl and Indy completely shut him down. Same with Cj Anderson. He gained 80 yds on 20 carries, and aside from his one 20+ yd run was stuffed the entire game. I'm not trying to argue that the Colts are going to crush the Pats this weekend. All I'm saying is that the Colts are playing some great football on both sides of the ball and the Patriots are not unbeatable. I don't think it's ridiculous to think that the Colts can win this weekend. View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to I Did a Seahawks Vs Pats Superbowl +500 in NFL Betting I'm not a huge fan of hedging (unless it's a substantial amount of $$), but you have a great opportunity since you have both heavy favorites at a decent price. But better yet, you have a great opportunity to middle. Personally, I would put in a straight bet on Packers +7.5. You could very well win the straight bet and your future could still be alive. I think both games will be closer than most people think, with both dogs capable of pulling off the upset. I know most people here are predicting two blowouts by the favorites (what else is new), but great qb's like Rodgers and Luck have the ability to take over a game and beat any team any given Sunday. GL View Post \| View Thread	jriv189	10	January 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21: True. The Pats are actually better this year than they've been in the past. They've added two of the best CBs in the NFL in Revis & Browner. They have a healthy Gronk & Wilfork for a change. They have a balanced attack & WRs who catch the football. They have the best HC left in the playoffs. Browner is one of the best CBs in the NFL? lol. He actually has an average coverage grade this season. Revis is great, but the Colts will have the best CB in this game in Vontae Davis. Wilfork??? What impact do you expect him to have this game? Indy will be passing the ball all game and Wilfork is a run stopper. He has exactly ZERO sacks this season. He will be a huge (pun intended) waste of space this game. And what exactly has the "best HC left in the playoffs" done since he's been caught cheating? View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why is the consensus to bet low volume? in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by RefereeSystem: This is coming from a ex poker player. I dont know if you guys are aware of this, but some of the best players played 16 tables at once. The theory was that if you are a winning player, you want to maximize volume. Say I can win $10/hr playing 1 table. If I can play 2 tables, I can win each table at $9/hr due to be having less efficient decision making. The goal is to maximize win rate * tables. How is this different in sports betting? Wouldn't the goal be to maximize games * win rate? This is why I dont understand when people say "just play 3 games a day". If your first three games can win at 70% and your fourth at 60%, why not play the fourth too? Theory dictates that you should play every game with a perceived EV of higher than your break even rate (52.38% for -110). Why isnt the consensus to volume bet? Because in poker (if you're a decent player), you get your money in with a very high probability of winning, or at least the correct pot odds to make calling a long-term profitable play (+EV). In sports betting you theoretically have a 50/50 chance of winning, yet you are always playing at -EV because of the vig. Think of it this way: we agree to flip a coin and every time you win I give you $100, but every time I win you give me $110. Would you play that game? Of course you could argue that you can find an edge by doing research and breaking down match ups. Even if you could do that, you would only be able to do so much research per day, so you wouldn't be able to find an edge in every game on the board. And even if you find an edge, how much of advantage does it really give you? 5%? 10%? And then there's the fact that you still need to win at a rate that beats the vig. The vig kills you long-term. IMO It's better to be very selective and choose games where you think you've found a significant advantage. These situations usually come up when public perception has a big influence and bookmakers need to set a line that will get close to 50/50 action, regardless of the matchup disparities. A good example of that was Ohio st +7 vs Oregon the other night. View Post \| View Thread	RefereeSystem	20	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21: Just because the Colts beat a hurt, & old Peyton Manning doesn't mean they'll win in Foxborough. The Colts have lost 59-24, 42-20, & 43-21 in their last 3 games vs the Pats. Not sure why you think they have a shot now... This is the most complete Pats team in years.The Colts can't stop the run (470 in their L2 games given up on ground to Pats) and they don't have a running game. Colts will be one dimensional. The Pats have the better defense, the better coach, & the better rushing attack. Not sure why you think Colts have a chance to win ML. Pats own their soul & have a healthy Gronkowski. Brady is 100% healthy. Peyton was playing w/ a torn quad. Vontae Davis is the best player on the Colts D, but he can only cover 1 guy. Belichick will own Chuck Pagano's soul once again. The Pats can run AND pass on the Colts. This will allow the Colts to bite on the Play-action and get hurt in a big way. And if past performances guaranteed future returns we would all be rich. View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Hedging Advice. Don't feel confident anymore. in NFL Betting I'm pretty much in the same situation...Before the playoffs I put in a future that the SB matchup would be Colts vs Packers 100 to win 5000. I also put in a separate bet Colts to win AFC 100 to win 1400. I've thought about ways to hedge, but I don't think I'm going to. If I change my mind and decide to hedge, it will probably be a ml parlay. Don't do a teaser like the other guy mentioned unless you can get a 7pt teaser for better than -130 (at that point it would actually give you better odds than the parlay). The way I look at it is that it's only $200, and hedging is never a good move mathematically. Now, if GB wins the early game I will probably look to catch a live bet on Pats ml for a good price (hopefully Indy gets a lead at some point in the game). That's what I did for my Indy ml + Ohio st ml parlay the other day. I got Ore ml +170 in game for a very small hedge (only covered the cost of my wager). Good luck with whatever you decide...I think GB and Indy both have a great chance of winning View Post \| View Thread	46989	22	January 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to A mega prediction in NFL Betting I agree. The Colts have looked like the best team in the playoffs thus far, so I don't think it's too far fetched. View Post \| View Thread	MoonMan36	5	January 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Real National Championship in College Football You clearly have mental issues. I hope your family gets you the help you need. View Post \| View Thread	Metro413	8	January 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Packers 260 moneyline it is. in NFL Betting Would love for this to happen. I put in a future for SB matchup to be Colts/Packers before the playoffs 100 to win 5k. I think GB defense will need to step up big time for this to happen bc Rodgers looked really hobbled out there Sunday. View Post \| View Thread	tootskie	4	January 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread

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