Thebookbreakers

Anyone know where to find Asmith at? 

Nice!! Lets get it! 

GoTime...based on the previous plays, were any of the matchups as close in rushing yard defense as they are today? Maybe that will help us understand that even with close rushing defense, the stronger has still been covering. 

@RLeith35

 I wonder if it makes a difference in ATS outcome the closer the rush defense rankings are. Does a larger difference in average rush defense per game correlate to an easier ATS cover? 

something definitely worth looking into as many of these averages are getting closer and closer. 

@gotime

 hey there, have you ever cross referenced this trend/statistic to NFL plays? Please let me know, might be something to look into! 

Have you ever cross checked this theory with NFL? 

Any plays today AFN? 

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers

We have two good ball clubs, two great offenses battling each other today. Let's breakdown the match ups

Mike Minor: 

Throws 3 pitches: 44% 4 seam FB, 25% Change-up, 20% Slider. 

Rockies hit those pitches all above average. They rank #14 against the 4seam FB, #8 against the change up and #4 against the slider. 

Jon Gray:

Throws 3 pitches: 51% 4 seam FB, 33% Slider, #11 Curve ball

Rangers hit those pitches all average/below-average. They rank #20 against the 4seam FB, #9 against the slider and #21 against the curve ball.

We have a clear advantage based on pitching/hitting match ups for the Rockies. Now lets look at the lines makers standpoint. The line opened at the Rangers -105 and is now up to -120. Why the line move? We have over 82% of the money on the Rangers, the lines makers had to move this line up to continue to garner Rangers interest. 

Colorado Rockies ML +110 (2 Units)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays 

This play is purely based on analytics and the lines-makers thought process. Matt Shoemaker throws primarily 4 pitches, the splitter, sinker, slider and 4 seam fastball. Mostly though, 32% the splitter (Rays batting value of -0.3, #13 in the league) and 30% the sinker (ground ball inducing pitch). The Rays hit the 2ND MOST GROUNDBALLS in all of 2019, they hit a ground ball nearly 45% of the time, ranking 29th. So, what we have here is Shoemaker's strongest two pitches are difficult pitches for the Ray's to hit. Even his secondary pitches (slider and 4seam FB), they rank 14th and 21st respectively. 

The Rays pitcher, Ryan Yarbrough throws 3 pitches, the cutter 37% of the time, the changeup 25% of the time and the sinker 24% of the time. Here are the Blue Jay's success and rankings against those pitch types. They hit the cutter at a +4.2, ranking #8, and they rarely ever induce ground balls at 39% ranking 2nd best in the league. They struggle against the changeup ranking 27th in the league against them but I don't think Yarbrough will throw primarily changeups. 

Lines-Makers View:

They opened this line at -155 and with over 73% of the money on the Rays, the line has gone against their favor and down to -135. Even with the heavy money on the Rays, this line is still tempting more money to go on them. Especially after a "fluke" loss yesterday, big money is expecting a bounce back. 

Toronto Blue Jays ML +120 (2 units)

Working on finalizing my 12pm PST time play between the Blue Jays and Rays. Going to be another good one! 

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox

See Analytical Breakdown below:

Starting Pitching:

Twins: 8.50

White Sox: 8.30

Starting Lineups:

Twins: 77.03

White Sox: 68.64

Bullpens:

Twins: 7.62

White Sox: 5.55

Significant advantages for the Twins in the starting lineup and bullpen. Starting pitching is a wash, wouldn't be shocked to see a high scoring game here. Let's breakdown the match ups some more. Dobnak throws primarily a 3 pitch arsenal, 36.5% Sinker, 27.8% Curve-ball and 22.7% 4seam fastball. Luckily for him, the White Sox rank below average against those 3 pitches; They have a -29.2 value against the 4seam fb, ranking 27th in the MLB, a -4.3 value ranking 17th against the Sinker and a 0.4 value, ranking 15th against the curve-ball. Heavy advantage for Dobnak against their lineup. Keuchel throws with a heavy arsenal of sinker balls (49%), cutters (20%) and change up's (14.5%). The Twins rank 2nd against the Sinker and Cutter and 10th against the change up. 

Lines-makers Thought Process? 

They opened this line at -125 but with the pitching change, the line went down. Over 82% of the money is on the White Sox, yet the line is holding steady at -105/-110. This line with that money should be at -120 minimum. 

Minnesota Twins ML -110 (3 Units)

Minnesota Twins RL -1.5 +145 (1 Unit) 

Hope everyone is doing well. I will be posting my analytical breakdowns on this thread for today. We finished the day strong yesterday with the A's and Padres winning their games. 

Updated Record: 4-5, +0.35 units 

Strong finish to the day with the A’s and Padres winning. Onto tomorrow, have some good games lined up. 

updated record: 4-5, +0.35 units 

Final Play for the day:

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

See analytic breakdown below:

Starting Pitching:

Diamondbacks: 13.90

Padres: 14.95

Starting Lineups:

Diamondbacks: 63.37

Padres: 66.09

Bullpens:

Diamondbacks: 4.27

Padres: 6.18

Clear advantages across the board for the San Diego Padres. Everyone sees the name of Bumgarner and expect him to have a great day but my system shows otherwise, he should get hit. The most important thing here is that the majority of the wagers AND money is on the Padres yet the line is moving in the Padres way. Follow this and overtime you will be more successful than not. 

San Diego Padres ML -140 (2 Units)

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox

See analytical breakdown below:

Starting Pitching:

Twins: 15.68

White Sox: 20.35

Starting Lineups:

Twins: 61.25

White Sox: 58.78

Bullpens:

Twins: 5.21

White Sox: 5.18

The analytical system shows a clear pitching advantage for the White Sox while the starting lineups and bullpens are close enough to be considered even. The biggest advantage here is the lines makers mindset, they opened the line at Twins -115 and is now at Twins -105 with over 84% of the money on the Twins. Why have the line move against them? Are they begging for more money on the Twins? With a strong starting pitching value, we are taking the White Sox. 

Chicago White Sox ML +100 (2 Units)

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics

See analytical system breakdown below:

Starting Pitching:

Angels: 16.15

Athletics: 14.93

Starting Lineups:

Angels: 54.40

Athletics: 58.91

Bullpens:

Angels: 5.13

Athletics: 7.20

Interesting play here as the starting pitching shows the Angels to have a slight advantage but not by much. Starting lineups and bullpen are clear Athletic advantages. Why am I playing this? Because if Montas gets into any trouble, we have a solid bullpen to follow and control the game. As well as the lines makers here are increasing the Athletics line (opened at -130 and now at 150) yet the wagers have been 50/50 to this point. This means they are begging for Angels action by increasing the + money. Let's not forget the Oakland A's have one of THE BEST offenses in the league against left handed pitching, last year they ranked 6th in the MLB and had a win/loss record of 35-14 against left handed pitching. 

Oakland Athletics ML -150 (2 Units)

Oakland Athletics RL -1.5 +135 (1 Unit)

New York Mets ML - 2 unit Winner! 

New York Mets RL - 1 unit Loss

Updated Record: 1-2, 0 units 

Might have 1-2 more plays for today, waiting for the $ and line movements to settle. 

GL Everyone

Have a rare team total play...see below:

The Toronto Blue Jays have the LOWEST starting lineup total based on my analytical system today, they have a rating of 52.47. Average is around 60, anything below is a red flag for a low scoring game. They are also facing a pitcher in Charlie Morton with a rating of 19.74 which is above average. Looking at the line, we have an agreement with my system. Why? The total is receiving over 70% of the money on the OVER. This is a perfect UNDER game but we are taking:

Toronto Blue Jays to score UNDER 3.5 runs (1 unit)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs

See analytic system breakdown below:

Starting Pitching:

Brewers: 15.37

Cubs: 11.86

Starting Lineups:

Brewers: 67.91

Cubs: 59.37

Bullpens:

Brewers: 5.74

Cubs: 4.47

Across the board advantages for the Brewers according to my analytical system. I love when my system aligns with the linesmakers movement. This line opened at Cubs -126 and is now at -115. Currently, according to my sources, the Cubs are receiving 56% of the money. Larger money on the Cubs yet the line moves against their favor? Something smells fishy here. 

Milwaukee Brewers ML +105 (2 units)