TheKingfish

Success last week (10-4, .714). Am just barely over breakeven for the full season though (56-49-2, .533). Not good. The venerable box likes these this week:
1) Tulane(-14.5)/Charlotte       W
2) Arkansas(+7.5)/ Mississippi
3) JacksonvilleSt(+2.5)/Liberty      W
4) MichiganSt(+8)/Indiana
5) UTSA(+7 .5)/Memphis
6) Rice(+12.5)/Navy
7) CentralFlorida(-6)/Arizona
8) SoAlabama(-6)/GeorgiaSouth
9) TexasSt(-4)/LA-Lafayette        L

Since I tweaked the system (three weeks ago), the top six has performed well (13-5, .722). With five weeks left, there’s a glimmer of hope for me……

49 on the board this week. Down from 56 last week; thus less opportunity.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Forgot to share this one earlier.
Tulane(-14.5)/Charlotte

Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
TexasSt(-4)/LA-Lafayette
JacksonvilleSt(+2.5)/Liberty

Good luck,
TheKingfish

Some success here last week (8-5, .615). For the full season it’s 46-45-2 (.505). Not good. Data into the box; give the handle a turn; the outcome:
1) TexasA&M(-1)/LSU
2) GeorgiaTech(+10)/VirginiaTech
3) Auburn(+2.5)/Kentucky
4) ColoradoSt(-6)/NewMexico
5) FresnoState(-6)/SanJoseSt
6) Virginia(-4)/NorthCarolina
7) TCU(-5.5)/TexasTech
8) Ohio(-6)/Buffalo
9) Connecticut(-6)/ Rice
10) Minnesota(-4)/Maryland
11) BallState(+12)/NoIllinois
12) NorthTexas(+7.5)/Tulane
13) BostonCollege(+7.5)/Louisville
14) Duke(+13)/SMU

Some rank-value was had last week -- five of the top seven were winners. Eight weeks gone; six weeks left.

56 on the board this week. Down from 59 last week, so the opportunity quotient has declined a bit.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; a late insertion:
2) Tulsa(+3.5)/Temple
3) Toledo(+3)/NoIllinois

Good luck,
TheKingfish

Some success in this corner of the forum last week (6-2, .750). For the whole of 2024 it’s 38-40-2 (.487). Not good. For this week, the system is partial to these:
1) SMU(-14.5)/Stanford
2) CentralMich(+2)/EasternMich
3) WakeForest(+2)/Connecticut
4) OklahomaSt(+10)/BrighamYoung
5) SouthCarolina(+3)/Oklahoma
6) Texas(-3.5)/Georgia
7) Kansas(-5.5)/Houston
8) Rutgers(-4.5)/UCLA
9) Maryland(+7.5)/USC
10) Northwestern(+7.5)/Wisconsin
11) OldDominion(+10)/TexasSt

A bit of rank-value also occurred here last week -- five of the top six. Now halfway thru the season, I assessed the performance of each rote-contributing trend and made some adjustments. We shall see; seven weeks left.

59 on the board this week. Up from 52 last week, so we’re flush with opportunity.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

No help here last week (5-7-1, .417). Supplying only some small rank-value; two winners in the top three. For the whole of 2024 it’s 32-38-2 (.466); a tough year thus far. Still eight weeks left though. The box likes these this week:
1) OregonState(-3)/Nevada
2) Vanderbilt(+13.5)/Kentucky
3) SanDiegoSt(+1)/Wyoming
4) Wisconsin(+3)/Rutgers
5) NoIllinois (+3)/BowlingGreen
6) OldDominion(+2)/GeorgiaSt
7) MiddleTenn(+5)/LouisianaTech    L
8) NewMexico(-4.5)/AirForce

How about some idle tech talk? I use the term SpreadMargin (SM) to define how much a team covers, or fails to cover. In general, I use SM as an adjunct to ATS wins and losses. It speaks to how competitive the system is, but is also probably best-used when a capper has reasonable best-bet volume.

Anyway, my database (2013-23, 6844 games) has the Mean SpreadMargin at 12.3, carrying a Std. Dev. of 9.6. Both that Mean & SD are large. Which begs the question. Given that level of volatility, how viable is the historical database for prediction-making purposes? I am "forever learning" the craft, but those numbers provide a genuine appreciation for the task at hand. Suffice to say; prediction is a daunting hobby....

52 on the board this week. There were 49 last week, so a sweeter opportunity pool for all the magic to take place.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
MiddleTenn(+5)/LouisianaTech
Good luck,
TheKingfish

No help in this corner of the forum last week (6-6-1). No rank-value either. For the whole of 2024 it’s 27-31-1 (.466). Looking at every game, the box leans into the following:
1) JamesMadison(-16.5)/LA-Monroe
2) Tulane(-15)/UAB
3) WakeForest(+4.5)/NorthCarSt
4) OldDominion(+6)/CoastalCar
5) AppState(+3)/Marshall
6) Hawaii(+3)/SanDiegoSt
7) Missouri(+1.5)/TexasA&M
8) SouthCarolina(+9)/Mississippi
9) Charlotte(+9)/EastCarolina
10) Northwestern(+14)/Indiana
11) Minnesota(+8.5)/USC
12) California(+10.5)/MiamiFlorida
13) UTEP(+10.5)/SamHouston

With 36% of the season gone, it’s time for a positive performance slope to take hold. My historic research model (10 years) says that’s inherent, based on increasingly more-accurate power ratings. But………seeing will be believing.

Hey, a case for college game volatility last Saturday. Georgia (-2) was topped by Alabama 41-34 in a marque game. With 7 minutes left in the first half, the Tide was ahead 28-0. Who could possibly see that coming? However, I would submit, that inherent level of college-ball uncertainty advantages the player -- not The Man. College has much higher lines than the pro game, which attest to that intrinsic uncertainty. The pro game has more parity, and more money-scrutiny; which translates to a tougher line. Humble opinion on that. So, as really-tough as it is to beat – I’ve always been in the NCAAF lane (134 teams vs. 32).

49 on the board this week. There were 53 last week, so we’re in a small lull. My binoculars say no help on the opportunity front next week.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
UTEP(+10.5)/SamHouston
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; a late insertion:
8) Charlotte(+5)/Rice

Good luck,
TheKingfish

No help here last week (5-8, .385). For the season, it’s 21-25 (.457). Not good. Turning that big crank; the box likes these:
1) Buffalo(+5.5)/Connecticut
2) WesternMich(+3.5)/Marshall
3) SouthFlorida(+5 )/Tulane
4) UTSA(+3)/EastCarolina
5) GeorgiaSouth(+3.5)/GeorgiaSt
6) LA-Lafayette(+4)/WakeForest
7) SanDiegoSt(+3)/CentralMich
8) TCU(+2)/Kansas
9) NorthCarolina(+3)/Duke
10) Washington(+3)/Rutgers
11) NotreDame(-5)/Louisville
12) Purdue(+10)/Nebraska

There has been some slim systemic rank-value in the top three (6-6. 500), but as you can see – just barely enough to build on. However, there’s always some “tech” to talk about while the box is contemplating better things to come.

I typically bet my Home Favorites early and my Away Dogs late, but is there solid line-movement reasoning behind that? The Home Dog/Away Fav is a more nuanced match-up, so not so straight forward for me.

I had come onto that method from a long-ago data analysis. Since it had been a while when I last ran the numbers, I queried the 10-year database (2013-23, 6844 games). I record both start and end lines, which makes such an analysis possible.

End result? My longtime casual operating-assumption was (blatantly) false. Regardless if the game starts as an AF/HD or an AD/HF, there was zero-movement exactly 15 percent of the time -- with directional movement equally divided. Indeed…….equally divided.

Yes, boring. But maybe that feeds into a question a few players wondered about (???). 53 on the board this week; 54 last week. There will be a pullback on that volume next week, but still great opportunity for all of us this time around.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; a late insertion:
3) MichiganSt(+5.5)/BostonCollege

Good luck,
TheKingfish

No systemic value here last week; slammed at 3-9 (.250). For the season thus far, it’s 16-17 (.485). Not good. Looking for that proverbial bounce, my rote system likes each one of these:
1) Purdue(+4)/OregonSt
2) SoMiss(+6)/JacksonvilleSt
3) FloridaAtlantic(+1.5)/Connecticut
4) Tulsa(+3)/LouisianaTech
5) Houston(+3.5)/Cincinnati
6) Duke(-14.5)/MiddleTenn
7) GeorgiaTech(+10.5)/Louisville
8) Tulane(-3)/LA-Lafayette
9) Oklahoma(+7)/Tennessee
10) BrighamYoung(+7)/KansasState
11) California(+2.5)/FloridaSt
12) OklahomaSt(+2.5)/Utah

Hey, my weekly post wouldn’t be complete without some “boring” technical stuff. Was flirting with a middle this week (Oklahoma State). The Cowboys were -2.5 when I capped Monday morning. At that point, they were a solid Home Fav nationally. During a rather-strange opposite-spike Tuesday morning, I bet them at +2.5.

Anecdotally, lines often move-back to their opening value by week's end. That kind of movement suggests the weekend Wise Men (& Women) were right, and an overreacting less-knowing public moved it without cause. Of course, that’s all Human Administrator humble opinion…..

Anyway, the Boys were at -2.5 nationally (-3 in some places) yesterday and this morning. That's a 5+ point gap. My trigger gap for betting middles is >= 4. If this one continues on that path -- I'll have an opportunity. As you may know, the bettor loses only the juice on one bet if it fails to middle. Intrinsically, it’s a gambit that can approach 25-1 in reward/risk, depending on the juice.

Players love their Home Favorites, and tend to grow the number as game time approaches. This one advantageously goes late; at 4:00 EST Saturday. So, I will keep an eye on it for a potential Utah place. Betting at -109 odds, such a wager would have a 22.2 to 1 payoff. Since 2018, I have attempted six (6) times. Hit it once. Fun stuff when the opportunity presents itself.....

Alas……..as I write this (and checking my rampant enthusiasm into the coatroom), those Cowboys have reverted to being a PK. Go figure! Given this one’s demonstrated volatility, I will still be watching on Saturday (3:59 EST).

54 on the board this week; 52 last week. Still a growing abundance of opportunity for us.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; the algorithm wanted a small late-adjustment.
6) Indiana(-3.5)/UCLA

Good luck,
TheKingfish

No systemic complaints here last week (10-5, .667). For two weeks in the trenches thus far, it’s 13-8 (.619). Having the means to look at every game, my decidedly technical MO yields these:
1) FloridaInter(+5)/FloridaAtlantic
2) Rice(+4.5)/Houston
3) JacksonvilleSt(+2.5)/EasternMich
4) Hawaii(+4)/SamHouston
5) Mass(+4)/Buffalo
6) UNLV(+10)/Kansas
7) Cinci(-4)/MiamiOhio
8) CoastalCar(-17)/Temple
9) ColoradoSt(+7.5)/Colorado
10) GeorgiaSt(+10)/Vanderbilt
11) MiddleTenn(+7.5)/WestKentucky
12) OregonState(+16.5)/Oregon

It’s a bit premature in this young season to talk about system rank-value -- but the top six (6) were winners here last week. Indeed. Of course, there’s always that blind pig and the acorn……

I have a friend who eagerly receives my picks each week. He contemplates them for a progressive pool that pays when a player picks five (5) ATS winners. That challenging probability is 0.031 (0.5^5) or 1/32, so it carries a nice payoff. I supplied one such winning selection of five last year, which he didn’t place (go figure!). I haven’t spoken to him, so don’t know what measure of RoboCap faith he possessed last Saturday.

52 on the board this week; 49 last week. So, a growing abundance of opportunity for us all.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record. My above Rebel selection is valid at 10 or greater; duly recognizing they are presently below that level.

@TheKingfish

For the record; just inserting a late-blooming addition.
10) California(+12)/Auburn

Good luck,
TheKingfish

An unspectacular start to the season here last week (3-3). Giving the crank a hard full-turn, the box generates these:
1) Army(+4)/FloridaAtlantic
2) SanJoseSt (+4)/AirForce
3) Virginia(+1.5)/WakeForest
4) Duke(+2.5)/Northwestern
5) EastCarolina(+1)/OldDominion
6) GeorgiaSouth(+1)/Nevada
7) MissSt(+5.5)/ArizonaSt
8) Michigan(+7.5)/Texas
9) LA-Lafayette(-15)/KennesawSt
10) Tulane(+10)/KansasState
11) NorthCarSt(+8)/Tennessee
12) Pittsburgh(+2.5)/Cincinnati
13) TexasTech(+2.5)/WashingtonSt
14) Iowa(-2.5)/IowaState

Last week’s top pick was a winner. Which, made me (anecdotally) reflect on the notion that my top pick has been somewhat prolific over the years. Albeit, a small sample size. So, I did a quick check. Over the last four seasons (partially covering my time on another now-defunct forum), that top pick has gone 31-18-3 (.633). Not too shabby…….

Have I achieved forum most-boring yet? Yeah, I’m a math minor and, sometimes the numbers even put me to sleep.

The season is young, and if the system has any value – its macro performance will prove positive. Alas, early optimism is cheap. Good or bad ultimate outcome, I’m here for the duration. 49 on the board this week, so an abundance of opportunity for us all.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Thanks to all who post in my small segment of the forum. Gathering sentiment is always a good thing. I'm sharing below, two (2) reflections that come to mind on game day -- just in case you weren’t thoroughly bored by my original post.

My gig is the ability to examine every game on the board (35 this week). In theory, such an expansive view allows me to find that “small” edge that lurks somewhere in the mass of it all. Consistent with that, we have this year’s addition of Kennesaw State, bringing the FBS total to 134 teams. Many (many) years ago, I started capping when the total was a mere 88. So, I heartily welcome the Owls!

I’m on A&M this week, but have not yet placed. The Aggies opened at -1.5 then quickly sat, as if mired in concrete, at -3. I share this because I’ve always been fascinated by the process. With Notre Dame in College Station, we have two marque teams and a TV game of large interest; lots of players want that action. Per the low odds (-105 yesterday, and lower in some places) The Man is receiving a healthy quantity of money on the Irish. However, The Man doesn’t want to move off of -3 to -2.5 because he’ll invoke a flood of Aggie money (humble bettors like me). It’s the classic money-balance enticement game. So it goes………

Anyway, it’s always fun to start an optimistic new season and have the forum to input-to and enjoy. And if I may say -- both are a pleasant life-distraction that we are all lucky to have. Enjoy.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

While I generated few visitor-comments here over the last two years, there was always a measure of welcoming in the weekly view quantity. Then too, my presence is low on flamboyance. Nonetheless, I am back for another season. My capping style is decidedly technical. I am a Pascal programmer; a number-cruncher and a slave to data/history.

I use a self-created algorithm that is comprised of historic trends culled from a 2013-23 database (6844 games). That algorithm employs power-ratings (also self-created). In short, if history repeats, there is hope for my system. OTOH, if the future diverges from its noble-past -- then success becomes more elusive for me.

Full disclosure – my 2023 overall was less than profitable. Albeit, my system’s top-five did provide some rank-value here last year (.556, 30-24-1). I like to bring volume, given that volume is a valuable positive when linked with reasonable success. In the end, I hope to make a positive contribution to the forum, and wish all of you well in the challenging new season ahead.

With that, for the record, I share my opening week selections:
1) NorthTexas(+5.5)/SoAlabama
2) TexasA&M(-3)/NotreDame
3) CoastalCarolina(+3)/JacksonvilleSt
4) MiamiOhio(+3)/Northwestern
5) WestVirgina(+8)/PennState
6) UNLV(+3)/Houston

I should add, my system has always seen more value in away teams (5/2 ratio). Also, in teams around a zero; low point spread. I think that latter trend will prevail throughout 2024. The algorithm logic being, those teams are inherently more competitive -- as opposed to identifying and jumping-on a larger line that is hoped to be out of sync. Humble opinion……
Good luck,
TheKingfish