TheKingfish

Some small success was divined here last week (6-5, .545). That mostly holds with the full-season system performance (75-61-3, .551). The box knows only incoming data, and has not a single-shred of bad-beat prejudice. Nor does it carry the opposite burden of cherished teams. This week, in typical rote fashion, the box likes all of these:
1) Buffalo(+2.5)/EasternMich        W
2) Rice(-6.5)/UAB
3) OhioUniv (+2.5)/Toledo        W
4) Oklahoma(+14)/Alabama
5) Florida(+10.5)/Mississippi
6) AirForce(+4)/Nevada
7) LA-Monroe(+3.5)/ArkansasSt
8) ColoradoSt(+3)/FresnoState
9) EastCarolina(+3)/NorthTexas
10) NewMexicoSt(+4)/MiddleTenn
11) SanDiegoSt(+4)/UtahState
12) WestKentucky(+1)/Liberty
13) Marshall (+2.5)/OldDominion
14) GeorgiaSouth(+2.5)/CoastalCar
15) SamHouston(+ 6)/JacksonvilleSt
16) NoIllinois(+3)/MiamiOhio             L

Save for just one; all dogs. Rank value has taken a backseat since the algorithm was adjusted six weeks ago. Performance during that span has been .652 (43-23-1).

I know tech-talk is a hard sell on the forum, generating few replies, but I wonder if anyone employs an early-week quantitative handle on point spread magnitude. As in -- when to strategically hold, and strategically place (???). For example, the most compelling dog-hold level would be +2.5. And conversely, a timely persuasive favorite-bet would be -6 or -6.5. The power aspect of this logic feathers out with larger line magnitudes, but such strategy can be dollar-return significant over the course of a full season. Most pronounced of course, when the player has volume ability.

Our concluding two wager-weeks in 2024 will be bursting with opportunity. This week we have no less than 61 on the board. And next week (Thanksgiving) will have all 134 FBS teams in action; a full slate of 67 games. That will be a veritable “opportunity bonanza” for techies able to evaluate each and every contest!
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
NoIllinois(+3)/MiamiOhio
Buffalo(+2.5)/EasternMich
Ohio(+2.5)/Toledo

Said earlier in the year, the 2024 algorithm tends to embrace teams that promise to be SU competitive (low spread). I recognize and like that MO, although research (and not the Human Administrator) controls that.

Good luck,
TheKingfish

Just performing my civic duty with an added post. Has anyone been watching the Sam Houston line? The Bearkats are at -19.5 in some places. And if you got them early (-13.5 open), then you’re sitting on an attractive gap (6). Plus.......there could be a bit more upside before game time.

Of course, that second-source ‘middle’ play would be Kennesaw St. Middles at that line magnitude are less likely than somewhere closer to zero, but it’s still thoughtfully tantalizing. The game goes at 3:00 EST.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Some bona fide success here last week (8-3-1, .727). That almost pushes the full-season large-volume system performance into respectability (69-56-3, .552). Turning the proverbial crank, the box has all of these in the win column this week:
1) BoiseState(-13.5)/SanJoseSt
2) SamHouston(-14)/KennesawSt
3) Liberty(-13.5)/Mass
4) WashingtonSt(-13)/NewMexico
5) JamesMadison(-3)/OldDominion
6) Troy(+8)/GeorgiaSouth
7) Rutgers(+6)/Maryland
8) UCLA(+3.5)/Washington
9) Georgia(-9)/Tennessee
10) MichiganState(+3.5)/Illinois
11) ArkansasSt(+3)/GeorgiaSt

Rank value has almost become a moot topic since the algorithm was tweaked five weeks ago. Performance during that span has been an admirable .673 (37-18-1).

I cap early Monday, and casually do likewise every morning during the week. I also place some on Monday; then as I see fit afterward. Opportunity is the goal of course, in addition to an emerging ‘middle’ that might later drop fortuitously into my lap. Related, and purely an anecdotal observation in 2024 – daily line movement has been rather stable; not large. If statistically true, that would not be good news for cappers; suggesting growth in The Man’s strength & confidence. Perhaps due to that now-ubiquitous enhancement known as AI.

53 on the board this week; up from 50 last week. Of course, any boost in opportunity makes us (examine-all) technical cappers happy. Albeit, it seems there are not many of that genre on the forum......
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Some success here last week (5-4, .556). Just barely over breakeven for the full season (61-53-2, .535). But, not so good on the volume front. The box likes these this week:
1) Army(-3)/NorthTexas
2) Connecticut(-6.5)/UAB
3) Liberty(-10.5)/MiddleTenn
4) CentralFlorida(+4)/ArizonaSt
5) BowlingGreen(-12.5)/CentralMich       L
6) LSU(+3)/Alabama
7) NewMexico(+3)/SanDiegoSt
8) SanJoseSt (+3.5)/OregonState
9) Duke(+3)/NorthCarSt
10) Rice(+9.5)/Memphis
11) Virginia(+7.5)/Pittsburgh
12) AppSt(+ 1)/CoastalCar          L

Since I adjusted the system four weeks ago, the top six have been strong (17-7, .708).

With ten weeks gone and four to play, are we interested in some tech-talk on category performance? Well, thus far the Home Dogs are .500 (86-86-4), and the Away Dogs are .517 (163-152-9). ATS macro data like that runs to .500, so no surprises. And no profit in wagering one or the other......

A bit more (boring) tech to share. I bet both early and late, so am always in the hunt for a middle opportunity. Of course, you need to be on the right side of that gambit early. No small thing! My personal line-movement target is >=4. So, how often has that occurred in 2024? That level of early/late movement has happened exactly 26 times (5.2%).

50 on the board this week; up from 49 last week. More opportunity -- always a good thing.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
BowlingGreen(-12.5)/CentralMichigan
AppState(+1)/CoastalCarolina
NewMexico(+3)/SanDiegoSt

Good luck,
TheKingfish

Success last week (10-4, .714). Am just barely over breakeven for the full season though (56-49-2, .533). Not good. The venerable box likes these this week:
1) Tulane(-14.5)/Charlotte       W
2) Arkansas(+7.5)/ Mississippi
3) JacksonvilleSt(+2.5)/Liberty      W
4) MichiganSt(+8)/Indiana
5) UTSA(+7 .5)/Memphis
6) Rice(+12.5)/Navy
7) CentralFlorida(-6)/Arizona
8) SoAlabama(-6)/GeorgiaSouth
9) TexasSt(-4)/LA-Lafayette        L

Since I tweaked the system (three weeks ago), the top six has performed well (13-5, .722). With five weeks left, there’s a glimmer of hope for me……

49 on the board this week. Down from 56 last week; thus less opportunity.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Forgot to share this one earlier.
Tulane(-14.5)/Charlotte

Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
TexasSt(-4)/LA-Lafayette
JacksonvilleSt(+2.5)/Liberty

Good luck,
TheKingfish

Some success here last week (8-5, .615). For the full season it’s 46-45-2 (.505). Not good. Data into the box; give the handle a turn; the outcome:
1) TexasA&M(-1)/LSU
2) GeorgiaTech(+10)/VirginiaTech
3) Auburn(+2.5)/Kentucky
4) ColoradoSt(-6)/NewMexico
5) FresnoState(-6)/SanJoseSt
6) Virginia(-4)/NorthCarolina
7) TCU(-5.5)/TexasTech
8) Ohio(-6)/Buffalo
9) Connecticut(-6)/ Rice
10) Minnesota(-4)/Maryland
11) BallState(+12)/NoIllinois
12) NorthTexas(+7.5)/Tulane
13) BostonCollege(+7.5)/Louisville
14) Duke(+13)/SMU

Some rank-value was had last week -- five of the top seven were winners. Eight weeks gone; six weeks left.

56 on the board this week. Down from 59 last week, so the opportunity quotient has declined a bit.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; a late insertion:
2) Tulsa(+3.5)/Temple
3) Toledo(+3)/NoIllinois

Good luck,
TheKingfish

Some success in this corner of the forum last week (6-2, .750). For the whole of 2024 it’s 38-40-2 (.487). Not good. For this week, the system is partial to these:
1) SMU(-14.5)/Stanford
2) CentralMich(+2)/EasternMich
3) WakeForest(+2)/Connecticut
4) OklahomaSt(+10)/BrighamYoung
5) SouthCarolina(+3)/Oklahoma
6) Texas(-3.5)/Georgia
7) Kansas(-5.5)/Houston
8) Rutgers(-4.5)/UCLA
9) Maryland(+7.5)/USC
10) Northwestern(+7.5)/Wisconsin
11) OldDominion(+10)/TexasSt

A bit of rank-value also occurred here last week -- five of the top six. Now halfway thru the season, I assessed the performance of each rote-contributing trend and made some adjustments. We shall see; seven weeks left.

59 on the board this week. Up from 52 last week, so we’re flush with opportunity.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

No help here last week (5-7-1, .417). Supplying only some small rank-value; two winners in the top three. For the whole of 2024 it’s 32-38-2 (.466); a tough year thus far. Still eight weeks left though. The box likes these this week:
1) OregonState(-3)/Nevada
2) Vanderbilt(+13.5)/Kentucky
3) SanDiegoSt(+1)/Wyoming
4) Wisconsin(+3)/Rutgers
5) NoIllinois (+3)/BowlingGreen
6) OldDominion(+2)/GeorgiaSt
7) MiddleTenn(+5)/LouisianaTech    L
8) NewMexico(-4.5)/AirForce

How about some idle tech talk? I use the term SpreadMargin (SM) to define how much a team covers, or fails to cover. In general, I use SM as an adjunct to ATS wins and losses. It speaks to how competitive the system is, but is also probably best-used when a capper has reasonable best-bet volume.

Anyway, my database (2013-23, 6844 games) has the Mean SpreadMargin at 12.3, carrying a Std. Dev. of 9.6. Both that Mean & SD are large. Which begs the question. Given that level of volatility, how viable is the historical database for prediction-making purposes? I am "forever learning" the craft, but those numbers provide a genuine appreciation for the task at hand. Suffice to say; prediction is a daunting hobby....

52 on the board this week. There were 49 last week, so a sweeter opportunity pool for all the magic to take place.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
MiddleTenn(+5)/LouisianaTech
Good luck,
TheKingfish

No help in this corner of the forum last week (6-6-1). No rank-value either. For the whole of 2024 it’s 27-31-1 (.466). Looking at every game, the box leans into the following:
1) JamesMadison(-16.5)/LA-Monroe
2) Tulane(-15)/UAB
3) WakeForest(+4.5)/NorthCarSt
4) OldDominion(+6)/CoastalCar
5) AppState(+3)/Marshall
6) Hawaii(+3)/SanDiegoSt
7) Missouri(+1.5)/TexasA&M
8) SouthCarolina(+9)/Mississippi
9) Charlotte(+9)/EastCarolina
10) Northwestern(+14)/Indiana
11) Minnesota(+8.5)/USC
12) California(+10.5)/MiamiFlorida
13) UTEP(+10.5)/SamHouston

With 36% of the season gone, it’s time for a positive performance slope to take hold. My historic research model (10 years) says that’s inherent, based on increasingly more-accurate power ratings. But………seeing will be believing.

Hey, a case for college game volatility last Saturday. Georgia (-2) was topped by Alabama 41-34 in a marque game. With 7 minutes left in the first half, the Tide was ahead 28-0. Who could possibly see that coming? However, I would submit, that inherent level of college-ball uncertainty advantages the player -- not The Man. College has much higher lines than the pro game, which attest to that intrinsic uncertainty. The pro game has more parity, and more money-scrutiny; which translates to a tougher line. Humble opinion on that. So, as really-tough as it is to beat – I’ve always been in the NCAAF lane (134 teams vs. 32).

49 on the board this week. There were 53 last week, so we’re in a small lull. My binoculars say no help on the opportunity front next week.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record:
UTEP(+10.5)/SamHouston
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; a late insertion:
8) Charlotte(+5)/Rice

Good luck,
TheKingfish

No help here last week (5-8, .385). For the season, it’s 21-25 (.457). Not good. Turning that big crank; the box likes these:
1) Buffalo(+5.5)/Connecticut
2) WesternMich(+3.5)/Marshall
3) SouthFlorida(+5 )/Tulane
4) UTSA(+3)/EastCarolina
5) GeorgiaSouth(+3.5)/GeorgiaSt
6) LA-Lafayette(+4)/WakeForest
7) SanDiegoSt(+3)/CentralMich
8) TCU(+2)/Kansas
9) NorthCarolina(+3)/Duke
10) Washington(+3)/Rutgers
11) NotreDame(-5)/Louisville
12) Purdue(+10)/Nebraska

There has been some slim systemic rank-value in the top three (6-6. 500), but as you can see – just barely enough to build on. However, there’s always some “tech” to talk about while the box is contemplating better things to come.

I typically bet my Home Favorites early and my Away Dogs late, but is there solid line-movement reasoning behind that? The Home Dog/Away Fav is a more nuanced match-up, so not so straight forward for me.

I had come onto that method from a long-ago data analysis. Since it had been a while when I last ran the numbers, I queried the 10-year database (2013-23, 6844 games). I record both start and end lines, which makes such an analysis possible.

End result? My longtime casual operating-assumption was (blatantly) false. Regardless if the game starts as an AF/HD or an AD/HF, there was zero-movement exactly 15 percent of the time -- with directional movement equally divided. Indeed…….equally divided.

Yes, boring. But maybe that feeds into a question a few players wondered about (???). 53 on the board this week; 54 last week. There will be a pullback on that volume next week, but still great opportunity for all of us this time around.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; a late insertion:
3) MichiganSt(+5.5)/BostonCollege

Good luck,
TheKingfish

No systemic value here last week; slammed at 3-9 (.250). For the season thus far, it’s 16-17 (.485). Not good. Looking for that proverbial bounce, my rote system likes each one of these:
1) Purdue(+4)/OregonSt
2) SoMiss(+6)/JacksonvilleSt
3) FloridaAtlantic(+1.5)/Connecticut
4) Tulsa(+3)/LouisianaTech
5) Houston(+3.5)/Cincinnati
6) Duke(-14.5)/MiddleTenn
7) GeorgiaTech(+10.5)/Louisville
8) Tulane(-3)/LA-Lafayette
9) Oklahoma(+7)/Tennessee
10) BrighamYoung(+7)/KansasState
11) California(+2.5)/FloridaSt
12) OklahomaSt(+2.5)/Utah

Hey, my weekly post wouldn’t be complete without some “boring” technical stuff. Was flirting with a middle this week (Oklahoma State). The Cowboys were -2.5 when I capped Monday morning. At that point, they were a solid Home Fav nationally. During a rather-strange opposite-spike Tuesday morning, I bet them at +2.5.

Anecdotally, lines often move-back to their opening value by week's end. That kind of movement suggests the weekend Wise Men (& Women) were right, and an overreacting less-knowing public moved it without cause. Of course, that’s all Human Administrator humble opinion…..

Anyway, the Boys were at -2.5 nationally (-3 in some places) yesterday and this morning. That's a 5+ point gap. My trigger gap for betting middles is >= 4. If this one continues on that path -- I'll have an opportunity. As you may know, the bettor loses only the juice on one bet if it fails to middle. Intrinsically, it’s a gambit that can approach 25-1 in reward/risk, depending on the juice.

Players love their Home Favorites, and tend to grow the number as game time approaches. This one advantageously goes late; at 4:00 EST Saturday. So, I will keep an eye on it for a potential Utah place. Betting at -109 odds, such a wager would have a 22.2 to 1 payoff. Since 2018, I have attempted six (6) times. Hit it once. Fun stuff when the opportunity presents itself.....

Alas……..as I write this (and checking my rampant enthusiasm into the coatroom), those Cowboys have reverted to being a PK. Go figure! Given this one’s demonstrated volatility, I will still be watching on Saturday (3:59 EST).

54 on the board this week; 52 last week. Still a growing abundance of opportunity for us.
Good luck,
TheKingfish