TheReelPhilD

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LA Rams-Seattle 'Over' 46 ($1100 to win $1000)

Another OVER to end the Morning-Afternoon slate for your truly and I hope we see some points here too. Not sure if you all remember this Seattle defense but they could not stop the run for their lives a year ago and Cam Akers is ready to run wild in this one until Stafford can get used to all these random receivers he's going to be throwing the ball to all game. Seattle should be scoring touchdowns or at least points on every single drive as they bring back an experienced offense under Geno Smith this season. He has weapons in the air and on the ground and should have him way even with 99 on the other side of the field. I think the Seahawks are going to be relentless on the offensive side of things and even Cooper Kupp out on the other side we are talking about guys who have been here and done that in the past and Stafford is going to have a few touchdown passes. Hoping for another opening week shootout.

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Miami-LA Chargers 'Over' 51 ($1100 to win $1000)

You can probably tell my approach with the NFL this season is we are going to see points galore and have one of the highest scoring opening weeks in history of the league. Okay maybe not but a lot of these games are going to be all out shootouts. Both these teams can score 30+ in every game this season and the Dolphins defense to me remains super suspect. Think of the offensive fire power in this one and is there any chance this game doesn't come down to the final drive and someone wins 38-31? Nah man. Tua has all the weapons in the world and Justin Herbert also has all the weapons in the world. This will also be the kind of game where both coaches for for it on 4th down to extend drives knowing their defense can't do much to stop the opponents and I'll take a shootout for the money here.

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Las Vegas-Denver 'Over' 43 ($1100 to win $1000)

What's crazy is these two teams were notorious for UNDER winners last year but no chance I am going under with the thought of Sean Payton and this supposed new "hardcore" approach with Russ Wilson. All you keep hearing is that Russ is being treated like he's never been treated before by a Head Coach but my take on that is that maybe we see the most focused version of Russ since his days in Seattle with big Pete. Jimmy G is on the other side and I think he's a sneak pick for surprise QB of the day against this Denver defense. The only reason this total is so low is because the Broncos had the lowest scoring offense in the NFL one season ago but a lot has changed and I think they put up some points in this Home and Season opener. Two offenses that can move the chains at altitude gimme the points fest.

@Greta

 Yeah my bad was just thinking out loud for the overnight points drop. It's way too early here. Nonetheless give me that mf OVER.

@Greta

 Yeah my bad was just thinking out loud for the overnight points drop. It's way too early here. Nonetheless give me that mf OVER.

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New Orleans Saints -3 ($1100 to win $1000)

Give me some of that Derek Carr money baby. Yes sir he is making his debut with the New Orleans Saints in front of the crazy Bayou fans and this place should be electric for a new and exciting era. The Tennessee Titans are bit of a disaster and don't really have any direction. The Titans had the worst pass defense in the NFL one season ago and apparently they've made some changes and brought in some guys but that takes a bit longer to put together than it does an established QB taking over a new team like Carr is doing. Saints running game is a big questions mark but I think a lot of people forget how effective RB Jamaal Williams was in Detroit last year and he can carry the load until Kamara is back. Not a big fan of either team and this could be a close one but I'll take Derek Carr late in the game over just about anyone else which is scary but profitable. Saints win and cover.

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Jacksonville-Indianapolis 'Over' 46 ($1100 to win $1000)

Another OVER for this mf in the first week of the season. Everyone is writing off the Indianapolis Colts but why? Sure Jacksonville have dawgs on both sides of the ball and sure they are supposed to win this game by 30 according to most cappers but if we are keeping it real I wouldn't feel too comfortable being on the same side as 80% of the betting public. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is making his big debut in this game and despite some bright flashes of success I think we also see some colossal mistakes that turn into the Jaguars having short field position on quite a few occasions and maybe even a few defensive scores. Having said that the Colts will find a way to score some points even if it's late in the game and this could be a wild shootout that sees 60+ points. I'm going with a lot of OVERS on this rookie QB debuts just because.

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Cleveland Browns +1.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

The Browns are winning this game and if they don't they will at least cover by losing on a last second FG or maybe scoring a last second touchdown and coming within a point. Nonetheless they are covering this spread. We know Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is playing for sure in this one but his actual status has been uncertain for weeks now and how healthy is the guy? We're about to find out. The general public has written off Browns QB Deshaun Watson but Watson is another year into his return and I think we see a much more comfortable player with the weapons he has around him. The Browns to me just look better on both sides of the ball right now with so many questions marks surrounding Burrow and company. The Bengals were near perfect on the spread last season and that will sucker enough bettors into taking them in the opener here. Browns at home win this game.

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Houston-Baltimore 'Over' 43.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

Give me the OVER with the new guys (Young and Stroud). Not so much because of what they are going to do offensively but maybe because of some of the mistakes they are going to make. Lamar Jackson is back, he has a new contract and I think he's looking to do some damage in his first game with all eyes on the pre-season MVP candidate. Houston was dead last against the run in 2022 and I don't think much has changed on the defensive side of things that would suggest they can stop the Ravens today. I want to bet on Baltimore here but I just don't trust the easy approach of fading both Young and Stroud in the first week. I prefer to think Houston is going to be giving Baltimore short field position this entire game and the Ravens alone could come close to covering this total. I'll take the OVER.

2023 Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)

Carolina-Atlanta 'Over' 39.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

What's up with this line anyways? I guess most people are expecting two young NFL Quarterbacks to pretty much fail in their season (and career) debuts but I don't see it that way. I think it has to be the weather because they are calling for rain throughout most of this game but again this favors the running games and Atlanta is about to start the Bijan Robinson era and there is a good chance they run for 200+ yards in this one with the backs they have access too. We are also here for the debut of #1 pick and QB Bryce Young. I know the record (spread and ML wise) speak for themselves when it comes to the #1 pick overall making their NFL Debut but I am going to stay away from that and just hope Young can find a way to impress and put up some points when playing down. This number is a tad too low.

Onto the NFL we got tomorrow. Big slate. Big day!

2-0 (+200) on the day and season! Nice start and back next week with more.

brutal game so far. Under was the play for sure after both went OVER.

also playing..

Appalachian State Mountaineers +19.5 ($110 to win $100)

Dang who remembers this game last year in September when these teams combined for 124 total points and Appalachian State almost pulled off the massive upset at home but lost? So why is the spread so huge? Because the Tar Heels held South Carolina to no rushing yards or what? They allowed 17 points in that game sure they covered the spread but come on man. I think it's safe to say last week's game against Gardner-Webb was a massive wakeup call for Appalachian State and they have a better running game than South Carolina. The two lifetime meetings between these teams have both been decided by 3 points or less and this should be the same. Am I the only one who thinks UNC QB Drake Maye looked pretty average against South Carolina? I sure thought so and one would think that would change here but App State is coming to play. Give me this dog all day.

2023 Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)

Tulsa Golden Hurricane +34 ($110 to win $100)

This number is way too high. Washington are good but not that good and Tulsa have a good offense that can score points. As long as they smash in a 14+ points they won't give up more than 40 and that's enough to cover. Washington have a massive game with Michigan State on the road next week and this is your classic look ahead spot as a large favorite. Kevin Wilson is such a good coach and with aspirations of coaching at Power 5 school in the future he will have his boys ready to go to war here and go punch for punch with the Huskies. Not sure Washington cares to do that and might just get through the motions of this game and escape with a win. Give me the Golden Hurricane during Hurricane season baby!

2023 Golf Picks Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)

AT&T Pebble Beach (Full Tournament)

Brendan Todd +100 over Nick Taylor ($5000 to win $5000)

Andrew Putnam -120 over Justin Rose ($3600 to win $3000)

2023 Soccer Betting: 2-1 ATS (+$2520)

Thursday, January 19

Friendly

Paris Saint Germain -1.5 -138 ($1380 to win $1000)

For the last time maybe ever we will get to see Lionel Messi versus Cristinano Ronaldo and this should be some can't miss TV. Some of the VIP tickets for this event being played in Saudi Arabia are going for gazillions of dollars and I don't think either side will disappoint. The Al-Nassr/Al-Hilal All-Stars have players beyond Ronaldo but how organized are they going to be and what awful timing to be playing PSG. I won't be going big on this one just because of the unknowns but I do know that Messi, Mbappe and Neymar are likely to start and likely to get significant playing time in this match. You have to understand that PSG are coming off an embarrassing 1-0 loss to Rennes in Ligue 1 action and as a unit they are looking for a bounce back even if in an exhibition. CR7 hasn't even touched the pitch with his new squad let alone a mixed bag of random players. I think this will be a fun one but I think PSG scores a ton of goals and win this by 2+.

English Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur +1.5 -110 ($2200 to win $2000)

Alright so I lost my Tottenham wager on the weekend backing them against Arsenal and as bad as they looked in that match I thought I deserved a better result. The team is loaded with talent but not doing much under Conte these days. So why back them here? The thing for me here is the pressure is on Manchester City and not on Tottenham. You will find pundits and handicappers everywhere with score lines of 4-0 Man City and 3-0 Man City and maybe even 3-1 Man City but why? Both squads are struggling right now and for the first time in forever City are coming off two straight losses (Southampton and Manchester United) and are facing a Tottenham side that for whatever reason has given them tons of issues over the last few season. The Spurs beat Man City 3-2 at the Etihad last February, they beat them at home 1-0 in August of last season and they have won 3 of their last 5 five against Pep. In their last 6 visits to the Etihad the Spurs have lost just once by 2+ goals. I think this game is a lot closer than many anticipate because Tottenham lost 2-0 to Arsenal on the weekend but Manchester City aren't playing any better and could be vulnerable again.

Had a feeling I couldn't trust Tottenham they are a complete mess!

2-1 (+$2520) today!

I'll take it with Chelsea and Barca both winning! Nice little profit. Back later this week!

Adding More:

Spanish Super Cup

Barcelona -0.5 +135 ($2000 to win $2700)

Who is ready for another version of El Clasico but this time in the form of the Spanish Super Cup Final being played in Saudi Arabia (for all those who didn't know). Yes that's right we are in for one heck of a treat in the middle of NFL Wild Card Sunday but have to keep my eyes on this one. Both teams struggled to make it to this Final and needed extra time and penalties to be here but here they are and we are ready for it. So who wins? I say Barcelona. Everyone expects Real Madrid to take this but it looks like Barcelona are finally starting to come into their own and Robert Lewandowski looks like he is ready to score big goals in big games again. The first edition of Clasico this season saw Real Madrid demolish Barcelona 3-1 but that was all the way back in October and Barca have grown quite a bit since. For starters this is not being played at the Bernabeu. Secondly Madrid will be without David Alaba, Lucas Vazquez and Aurelien Tchouameni and could be withouth Camavinga and Militao who have injuries. These two sides met one year ago in the Super Cup Semi-Finals and Real Madrid won with an Extra Time goal by Valverde. What a match it was and what a match this should but I think Barca shock everyone and win this in regulation time. Enjoy!

Here to post some winners (hopefully):

Sunday, January 15

Chelsea -0.5 -148 ($2960 to win $2000)

Something has to give with Potter's guys after some dreadful performances against Manchester City (twice) in the EFL Cup and Premier League action which was capped off by a pathetic away loss to Fulham only a few days ago. Now they are back at Stamford Bridge and taking on a Crystal Palace side that has lost both of its matches in 2023 going down against Southampton a few days ago and losing against Tottenham right after the New Year. Palace have managed to score only 7 goals in 8 away Premier League matches while Chelsea have allowed only 7 goals in 8 home matches at the Bridge this season. Chelsea are 6-0-0 in their last six matches hosting Crystal Palace outscoring them 16-2 in those matches and 11-0 in the last four. I know it's easy to go against Chelsea these days but not in this matchup as they get back on track with a big home win over Crystal Palace.

Tottenham Hotspur +0.5 -148 ($1480 to win $1000)

I am paying up in price today with some weird odds on the asian handicap. This should be an incredible tilt in the 193rd edition of the "North London Derby". I don't care how either side is playing right now because all odds are off the tables and this should be a banger of a match. Tottenham started off their 2023 calendar year with a shocking home loss to Aston Villa but they have bounced back nicely with a 4-0 win at Crystal Palace followed by a 1-0 FA Cup win at home over Portsmouth just to make it to today. Arsenal on the other hand are the front runners to win the Premier League this season and they will be at least 5 points clear regardless of what happens in this match. The Gunners only EPL match in 2023 was a 0-0 home draw with Newcastle which was a great match but this one will be a difficult one. Arsenal has not won a North London Derby at Tottenham since the 2014 English Premier League season and since that time they have 0 Wins, 6 Losses and 2 Draws. This includes a 3-0 drubbing here last May. This should be a fun one and no matter how good of a season Arsenal is having there is no way Tottenham let them have this.

more coming...