trmccart

And I have it at a bad number. I played it at 41.5, easily would've been available at 43 for many so I hope whoever tailed has the best number.

Only care about the under, that was my only play, and I have a good sense of it comin through.

Thats why I love me some totals instead of sides. Score is the inverse of what I expected at half but feel like the analysis was spot on with the exception of Va Tech having some success through the air. Neither team able to produce big quick scores or consistently put points on the board.

Yeah. Both safeties and a linebacker could be out. Again, I have no insight on their status, but it's kind of like losing a pinky before a thumb war. VT isn't going to be spreading it out and attacking the safeties anyways. I think it'd be smart to, and if they did it would take all of half of the first quarter to kiss my under goodbye, but I don't think its in their culture or skill set.

Also, not to get too football nerdy because I'm not in the coaching room, but it is much easier to run the dive against the 3-4, it could be why VT has had success against GT, because it's generally a tougher defence to run on, but my play is 99% based on the strategy of playing against the worst units on the field. VT specials teams and offence take that distinction come Thursday.

Noonkid, I'm with you on most of your analysis. The only thing I would disagree with, and we are on the same side, is that GT will ditch the dive and go to the option earlier. You're a fan of watching them so you probably will understand this pretty well, but it's like a pitcher mixing in his pitches. The dive is the fastball, and the triple option and speed option stuff comes off of that, kind of how you throw off speed and breaking balls off the fastball. Georgia Tech will take the 3-4 yards that come with the dive and kill you with a thousand paper cuts until outside defenders start crashing and losing contain. After watching Saturdays game I can say that the success GT started to generate off the option was directly from Carolina defending the dive. I think there is a certain mentality with running the wishbone and you saw even when GT fell behind they love that dive. I see the same kind of game that played out Saturday. Only I trust VT to be better on defence based on their history and I can't see the Hokies score 20. If I had to play the side, GT is the way to go.

One month in the books and I feel we now have as good an idea as we'll ever get on most teams headed into conference play. It's a double edged sword too because we're about to get sharper lines so a word to the weary, if you see a line that looks off- stay away! There will be no gimmes based on preseason expectations and regular season results. Thursday night is an ACC clash between Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech (-7, 41.5) and I feel like I have a great read on this game.

The Hokies are a pathetic offensive squad. What you saw against Alabama could be excused because 'Bama always has great defences right? Well we've seen the Tide get rolled and show real weaknesses in the secondary. Which would have been exposed against Virgina Tech if the Hokies had a) capable receivers and/or b) a legitimate QB. Logan Thomas is not good, the former TE plays like one behind centre and needs to rely on a decent running attack to have windows large enough so his inaccuracy doesn't cost him, making "close enough" good enough. VT doesn't have a ground game, which is a symptom of poor line play, and just leave this team susceptible to really erratic offensive production. It's either <5 plays and a punt or >10 plays and at a methodical pace and a short TD or FG try that had become an adventure so far this year. Beamer ball is hurting this year guys, and maybe even dating back to the sugar bowl against Michigan VT has really struggled with FG kicking, and I have to start wondering if 4th and less than 5 inside the 30 is 4 down territory. That being said, VT is a great punting team, remember Bama returning kicks for scores? Tough to say that's been cleared up totally, but what I can say is having those errors occur early in the season gives me faith that they're being worked on constantly instead of being taken for granted. They have an excellent punter, so for the most part VT may only advance to their own 30-35, but I have faith that they won't be issuing too many short fields in the punting game.

Defense is the same old tough unit at VT. You may not know the names or see them on Sundays but it's a solid unit and has only yielded 14, 3, 10 and 21 points (not including opp def/sp teams scores) this year. And if you think 21 points is alarming against Marshall, then you're not giving Marshall's QB the respect he deserves as he was able to have significant success through the air until conditions got bad and VT adjusted and shut down the Herds offense for the next 40 mins AND 3 OT. If GT had a passing attack that worried me, I would be predicting more success for GT through the air, but the Jackets are still the quintessential triple option offense and while it wouldn't stun me to see a big pass come through on a play action, I don't see too many big passes or big runs on the Hokies. I see minimal clock stoppages when the yellow jackets have the ball and having played the jackets since Paul Johnson's arrival, the Hokies haven't allowed more than 28 points, giving up 17, 28, 21, 26, and 17 to the Jackets. I expect that trend to continue, maybe seeing GT put up 20-24 points at the most.

I'm not going to get too in depth on Georgia Tech in offense. Here's the deal, they run triple option, they'll go for it on 4th and less than 3. They'll pass but have actually relied on the element of surprise to pick up first downs rather than back breakers. Watch for them to pass on 2nd or 3rd and 8 for 10 yards, and take a shot at the end one once getting to the red zone. But you won't see them making a habit of quick scoring drives, it'll be 8-10 plays to score. VT won't be surprised on defence. Defensively, GT had been able to shut down two ACC passing attacks and be effective against the run. I am keeping an eye on GTs safeties as both left last weeks game but can Logan Thomas exploit the inexperience? I doubt it. If VT continues to be unable to run the ball, I don't think they'll be likely to pass 40+ times, especially as I don't see GT running away with this one. Look for it to be close throughout. I see weaknesses vs weaknesses (VT Offense vs an improved but not ready to buy yet GT defence, VT passing defence vs GT pass offence) and strengths vs strengths (GT running game without an element of surprise vs VT defence). Ultimately, I think VT will have one or two too many empty possessions as they will be unable to count on FGs and don't have the offence to convert to often. I also see GT getting a bit less time on the field, and without a clear cut hurry up offence and the threat of bunch of incomplete passes (Oh, Logan Thomas will try his best, but VT won't let him throw 20 incompletions) I see GT covering in a game close to 23-14 or 24-10. But I am more comfortable in the UNDER, despite the possible 20-20 tie. I just don't think VT gets there, it may sound crazy but if you see VT with 3 at halftime you won't be surprised.

PLAY: U 41.5
Lean: GT -7
Tease to please: GT -1, U 47.5

Good luck and happy hunting. Comments and feedback appreciated. If you'd like any opinions on games you're looking at I'm game to discuss!!

gd. I absolutely agree with you. It seems like the chances are there for WISC to blow them out. But I was expecting a line around 7-8. Figured the MCHST name still had an impact. But WISC will be hosting the number 1 team in a week. I know that will be a much much larger factor whe the play IOWA but it feels to me that this line is begging you to see a team off a 20 pt beatdown to a bad team and fade them. I'll tell you what, this might be the game where I go against the public wherever they are cause this line does not smell right.

OHST @ MINN

In terms of pure size, this Golden Golpher squad may be the only one that can compete with OHST in the Big 10. Illinois has some skinny 7 footers as does PURDU with JaJuan, but MIN has players who can provide a real test possession by possession for OHSTs Jared Sullinger.

MINN was almost blown out in their last meeting with the Buckeyes but fought back and ultimately gave themselves a chance to win the game, covering pretty easily when it was said and done as 16 point dogs. That was with their PG Nolen in the lineup. His loss hhas really started showing on this team as they have failed to cover in their last two games, both road trips to PURDU and IND. In this spotm with the no. 1 team in town, undefeated and possibly looking ahead to their next game @ WISC I think theres a chance the Golphers cover. This line will likely slip down a bit and I think that if enough public action drives it back up (or past) the 6.5 I'm going to ride with MINN.

Will try to do a bit more tomorrow if I get a chance. This is really about a 10th of what I look into when making my own picks but I figured posting might make me look for a bit more info here and there. GL.

Going theough this card I'm nervous about how many Big 10 dogs I like.

MCHST @ WISC

I backed MCHST against IOWA. I ignored the warning signs. Loss SU and ATS at PENST, OT wins but ATS losses against WISC and NWEST, outplayed at ILL and PURDU, loss SU and ATS as 11 pt fav at home to MICH, OT win against IND as 11 pt fav before getting embarassed, humiliated and completely dismantled at IOWS, the worst Bug 10 squad going. I think MCHST may be done folks, at least this year. There are some theories among analysts that a team that doesn't have guys turning pro and making NBA rosters helps continuity. That may be the case but maybe it also means theres not a ton of talent on your team to begin with.

WISC is nothing new this year. Solid team at home. Patient offense, godd defense. Probably the opposite of MCHST in terms of talent. They're not going to be known for elite talen, but they're smart, well coached, and fit into their system like clockwork. Their next game is a rooadie at IOWA and this nationally televised contest should provide a great atmosphere against a great NAME in the Big 10. I really think the Badgers are the side here but something in my gut is telling me that Izzo will find a way to get his guys to compete here. If he doesn't, I will consider them a fade for the rest of the year. 9.5 is too much for me.

Weird night last night. There were a couple of goofy sides I was on. Had St. Johns and was lucky to have a chance for a cover at the end and it was blown. Then had UCONN and had the cover till an amazingly horrible moose (seems to me there was another dumb play at TEX as well to put that game to OT). It's a funny life gambling on sports for sure. Both of those games (and UK/FLA for that matter) can be going against your side all day until the tables turn and your on the winning end with seconds left just to get beat. And your the side who got screwed despite only covering for less than 5% of the game. Anyways, I figured I would try doing some posting on the forums. I'm far from a sharp or an experienced capper but I will say that I make just enough to keep me motivated.

MICH @ PENST (opening at -4.5)

Penn State will probably be without Jeff Brooks in this one. The guy holds the interior of that Nittany Lion squad together, their leading rebounder and shot blocker. He's not an impressive athlete so those sort of familiar with the program might not think his abscence will really affect the squad but on a team like this, it's all a matter of depth. This isn't an elite program that can bring a heralded recruit to start in his place. The things he does on this team is because he is the only one who can do it. It's a loss worth noting.

Michigan is starting to come around. Watching them recently you start to see them challenge elite squads consistently due to their screwy offense and defense and the emergence of some promising players- specifically Jordan Morgan and Tim Hardaway Jr. Morgan is really well suited to this offense as he and Darius Morgan really work the pick and roll well and he has the ability to hit the offensive boards. Hardaway can be lights out with his outside game and can slash very well. Should these guys keep developing they could have a great guard, wing, big combo for the big 10. 

So as for this game? It's tough as recently these teams have been covering as dogs in conference play. Michigan has covered three straight, beating MSU (less and less impressive) and IOWA and keeping the OHST game close until late. PENST had covered 6 in a row before getting beaten in ILL in a game where they had difficulty getting to Champiagn and lost Brooks. MICH did go through a tough stretch following their first OHST game which was similar to the most recent one, losing on the road at IND, NW and home to MIN. But they managed to take care of business in a dangerous game between the MSU win and OSU look-ahead and beat down IOWA at home. With the loss of Brooks and my faith in the MICH squad growing my lean would be to take the points. The number could move down before tip.

I agree, but SF is a terrible spot for them to pick it up... that's a team that hates LA and a solid home record. It's the type of situation where LA wishes for a day off and then Arizona or Colorado. I also like the fact that Broxton is done for tonight, so their bullpen is out of sorts. It's likely my favorite game tonight.

Just starting to get into these forums. Notice alot of good work and figured I'd give posting a shot.

I have a handful of plays for Monday- unfortuantely none are really sexy upsets. I do like RUNLINE plays though, been lucky in the past with them.

LA @ SF -107 Both teams have struggled lately, but even with SF losing 2 of 3 at home I think they're in a better spot. The Dodgers gakked one up last night and really seem to be slipping- 2 ejections over called strikes in the 9th and 10th lead me to believe this team as a fragile psyche. The Giants are a home team, Zito likes pitching on the bay and you don't get to use a mental edge too much in baseball but really, Dodgers coming of a rough series with the Yankees and going into SF where they are hated. Under is a consideration too.

WSH @ ATL -113 Tough to go against Strasburg but the Nats have stunk it up lately. I think their bullpen has been mismanaged so poorly that it is no longer as effective as the public percieves it. Too many innings by too few arms, Strasburg has lost his last two starts, only giving up a run in each. I see more of the same tonight. Hudson is not going to let the Nationals back on track. Again, the under should be considered, but with the 6.5 I am wary of a rough bullpen inning.

CHW -121 @ KC Look, another cheap favorite that isn't going to set me apart from anybody but 2/3 will keep me happy. I can't back KC at the best of times, and CHW has really been money for 2 weeks. They had a awful loss yesterday with a couple bad calls and still brought the winning run to the plate in the ninth. Can't see them losing behind Buehrle, who has been a winner against KC (past two starts are a little troublesome).

I lost on Dallas tonight too but come on guys, there was no fix... In the last two days we've had an 18 pt comeback and a 25 pt comeback... It's just a bad beat. Yeah, I get that people need to vent and release their stress but we can all look at a game that we capped 100% wrong and we hit it on someone else's bad beat. It sucks. But until I see two teams trading shot-clock violations in the last two minutes of a game, there wasn't a fix. Let's just blame Haywood for missing FTs, the Dallas D for allowing McRoberts to get that OB, then Stevenson for deciding to make one defensive play in 6 mins and fouling on Prices layup. then Najera jacking up a 3, and then the Dallas D conceding another layup... It sucks, but it's the nature of the beast. I'll pour a drink for all the Dallas backers and let the Indy backers count their lucky stars.

Revenge factors differ depending on circumstances... I hate using last years results b/c there's graduation and new contributors to consider. However, consider some angles in recent results and you could make arguments for the revenge angle. These situations include home losses, "we had it won" losses, and blowouts. I tend to look at each game individually. My best example of this was the CINCI @ UCONN game recently. For those who remember, the first meeting was decided with two controversial FTs by the Bearcats to win at home. However, those who viewed it as a revenge spot must've missed that CINCI was in control of that matchup for 35 mins, keeping the game 2-3 possessions out of reach. Only a late surge tied that game. I realize it falls under "gut-wrenching" loss territory, but UCONN couldn't possibly see it as a "we were robbed" situation. They were lucky to tie it, and anybody could see that CICNI just matched up well with them. Of course, you consider a game like PURDUE @ OHIO ST, there's a game where PURDUE had OHIO STATE beat the first time around and didn't close it out. That makes me believe that a) Yes, this team has the ability to win and b) they will ensure 40 solid minutes. Different spots entirely.

Alright. I'm locking in on USF, INDIANA, VATEC and GATEC... like the matchups a bunch.

PURDUE!

Been a long time since I've posted. Last 2-3 weeks I've been working nights and making picks here and there but not having nearly enough time to post so I've been laying off. Not tracking records anymore. I've seen how they get called into question day after day- good and bad cappers needing to defend them routinely, not worth it in my opinion. I figure you're going to remember picks I got way off and picks I nailed... and if you have more good than bad memories or vice versa, what's a record going to do?

With that being said... TUESDAYS LEANS!

OKC -3.5 Can't trust DALLAS, those who can are better people than me. I think Durant is the best player on the court here. I think Westbrook is a better PG right now than Kidd. Butler/Marion and Dampier/Haywood? I think Cuban is acting like Noah here and trying to get 2 of every type of player... Only problem is, in the short term, the original Mavs aren't going to appreciate having their minutes cut and roles changed, whereas the new Mavs aren't going to instantly gel. Maybe Dallas will be better later in the year, but this smells like desperation to me.

UTAH -2.5 I think the Rockets have been exposed. They can't score whenever they like. Williams can exploit the smaller Brooks. I think they matchup well here and will bounce back from the Lakers beating.

MEM -1 Are the SUNS focused? The Grizz have struggled as of late, but I think the ASG break helps them get back to winning at home.

LAC +6 SHOOT ME NOW! The Clippers are my ATS demon. When I buy in they fuck me, when I fade them, they remember that putting the ball in the oppositions hoop is favorable to them putting it in yours. Though if Mike Dunleavy was my coach I could probably forget that too... Whatever, not blaming the guy who uses old carpets for sportsjackets, I just think there's too much size for a undermanned Blazers team. It should be close. Plus I get the feeling it's the time that the Clippers play well for a couple weeks before they're mathematically eliminated and quit. But I am inches from jumping off of this bet and defending that this post never existed...

Comments always appreciated... I'm not truly an idiot until I've been told that 10-15 times. GL