tsarvis12

Love the SD pick - I agree 100% with your analysis. Let’s ride 

Decent fight night card - let's end the year on a high note 

Joel Alvarez ML -450 

inside the distance -140     lean by sub +225 

Miranda Maverick ML -550 

value on Maverick inside the distance +400 

lean by sub +600  RD2 +1100  R3 +1800

Navajo Sterling by KO/TKO -155 

Sterling KO RD2 +450  RD3 +650

Ottman Azaitar by KO/TKO +375  RD1 +800   longshot sprinkle

Sean Woodson ML -150  lean by Dec 

Manel Kape ML -375   lean by Dec +100

Josefine Knutsson ML -225    lean by Dec -120

BOL everyone 

Great calls 

Just bought in $RKLB 

Let's go Mocs 

Damn. Thanks Miami 

Asakura let us down in the main event. Hope some of you tailed along tonight 

Will be back next week with more picks. Hope everyone has a great week 

@vaas187

@BrittanyWVU

 You're telling me! He closed -700 on the live line. I hadn't felt that good about a decision in a while and our guy gets robbed. Was on a 4 fight W streak too

Wow. Volkov absolutely robbed. I've seen some pretty disgusting decisions this year, but that's up there with the worst

@handycat

 Been debating all week, may play Shavkat by sub +210

I rate Garry very highly but Shavkat is 18-0 with 18 finishes for a reason. I do lean the fight going semi-longer, I could see Shavkat getting the finish later in round 2 or mid round 3. I think a lot of Garry's win equity is in a decision as I do not see him finishing the fight here

Bryce Mitchell Rd3 +1400 

Thug Nasty by ko 

4-0 sweep so far. Cash Van ML Battle ML  Let's keep it rolling 

2/2 cash Kennedy KO Hooper Sub 

 Movsar Evloev ML -225 

- Movsar is going to dominate Aljo. Incoming 30-27 unanimous decision

Themba Gorimbo ML -160

- Prime Luque would win this 9/10 times but sadly we are way past that point. Could see Themba winning by finish or by decision

Dominik Reyes ML -350 

- Reyes should absolutely turn Anthony Smith's lights out, but I see a lot of value on Reyes by decision at +400. Could see it going all 3

Landwehr/Choi U2.5 rounds -170 

- Should be Fight of the Night once it's all said and done. I see violence here 

Alexander Volkov +310 

- Dog shot here but all the value is on the Volkov side imo. Volkov lost their original matchup in 2021 to Gane but Volkov has put in the work and vastly improved since then, whereas Gane has been wholly inactive since getting choked out by Jon Jones. Lean Volkov by Decision as well

Kai Asakura ML +225 

- Another dog shot here in the main event but from all the tape I have watched, Asakura is the real deal. I think Pantoja does his thing and wins this fight a handful of times out of 10 but I believe Asakura wins more than the 30.7% win probability the books are giving him. Will also play Asakura by KO/TKO +325

- An alternate play would be Pantoja inside the distance (ITD) lean by submission as he certainly has a grappling advantage over his Japanese opponent. That being said, I see Asakura keeping this on the feet and becoming our first UFC champion from Japan 

Props:

Van/Durden fight ends in R2 +400 

Van Durden fight ends in R3 +725

Bryce Mitchell wins in R2 +1000

Bryce Mitchell wins in R3 +1400

Kron Gracie by submission +1400 (longshot) - his only win condition

Great card - let's get it gents 

Kennedy Nzechukwu ML -525 

- By KO/TKO -120    inside distance prop -215 for parlays

Chase Hooper inside distance (ko or sub) -210 

- By Submission at -135 great value, Hooper just beat old man Guida in grappling match recently. 17 year age gap is largest in UFC history

Joshua Van ML -150 

- Van is the man. Saw him fight live at the sphere a few months ago, I see him owning Durden in the standup

- lot of value on the U2.5 rounds, Van rounds 2/3 finish

Bryan Battle ML -175 

- Battle is the real deal. For those of you that haven't seen it, please go online and lookup Bryan Battle UFC Paris post fight speech. Amazing. 

- Both these guys are great strikers, we should be in for a treat with this one. Battle missed weight by 4 pounds, coming in at 175 while Brown made the cut to 171. Bryan should be the much bigger fighter in the octagon tonight and will absolutely use that to his advantage. However, I do think there are two ways to play this fight. Battle inside the distance (ko/sub) or Battle/U2.5 rounds is one outcome I see, whereas Randy Brown's win condition leans towards a decision. Not that Battle couldn't win a decision - I just see him being the far likelier fighter to find a finish in this fight.

 More to come - BOL this evening everyone 

Gane beat Volkov in their first matchup couple years ago. All the value is on the Volkov side this time imo 

You’re the man L72, thanks for always posting 

If you’re interested in UFC at all, hop over to the MMA forums later. That’s my specialty - Huge card tonight. Let’s stack it up! 

Great post

Great call on AZ st game!