@ALEXSON
I'm on it with you, State hasn't lost to ANY non power 5 schools at home. Just about all of their best performances have come at home, they seem to be focused on not finishing the season with a losing record. I've seen North Texas a lot this season, they play well at home, not so much on the road, actually could have lost on Sunday to Arkansas St. Rolling with the Pokies -1.5 
@ALEXSON
Hey bro, yes.. I can chime in. Lets get one thing out of the way. This line is a joke, N.Texas plays in the weak American Conf. They just played two games at home vs who Furman and Arkansas St..big deal. You can elimnate those two games from your capping because they are not away games. Now they get tested and go to the road to face the B12 Oklahoma st with a short line ?..please.
Since Jan after Ok St had time to gel as a team, they really werent that good on the road vs B12 opposition, but at home they were like 7-2 SU ATs vs their conference which mind you.. most of the teams they played were not good on the road..but still B12. Hey they beat Iowa St. Its better than anyting Ntexas has played on the road vs their weak ass conf.. Oki st did go 10-4 last 14 games.
The key to this game is the recent form last 4 last 3 home games of Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Cinn, Iowa St, Cinn. The collective strength of schedule and the margin of victory vs these squads is leaps and bound better than what NT has faced in their recent 3-4 away games UAB ,Tulsa , Temple , FAU Ntexas. NT ave offense vs thier weak conference teams on the road 61-66 ppg. Yes, on paper, it seems that they have a decent defense. However, those defensive stats are skewed because of the caliber of competition.
Oki St is scoring 78-80 ppg on offense and 68 ppg on defesne vs a better caliber of teams that Ntex has faced in those recent form away games. I have Oklahome St as a +14 superior schedule favorite and I use Kenpom..which is an elite ratings system when used with my models and methods. I love Okie St by 15 in this one. 
GL with your play
..and this is exactly what I was talking about..this guy gets it.
Large bets o. NORTH TEXAS have moved the line to +1. More bets on Oklahoma State but more money on NT early. It is the early bets that matter. I don't have numbers on NT but clearly the large bets have their power ranking higher than OSU or an injury to a Cowboy.
Roger Staubach....
@ALEXSON
Ya I see why people want to bet large on Oklahoma, they play in a stronger division opposed to N. Texas. If you look at N .Texas’s points scored this season you’ll note that it’s in the 60’s and 70’s.
Another thing that stood out was Oklahoma’s results this season when they were favored by -1 to -2 points, they won all of them.
And ya N. Texas won the NIT 2 years ago, so they’re not winning it again, the likelihood of that occurring is astronomical.
Have to go with Oklahoma.
I do have a weird way of analyzing games like this. Both teams are just about equal. I look back at kenpoms preseason rankings before the first game was even played. He had North Texas ranked a bit higher than Okla St. Since both teams had a successful season making it to the NIT and nothing much has changed, my money would be on North Texas plus the point. Let's see how this plays out. 
70% of bets at Draft Kings is on Okie State and yet the line has stayed at basically minus 1. 30% percent of the bets have gone to North Texas, but 50% of the money is on N. Texas...again the line has not moved.
N. Texas has a better offensive and defensive efficiency, field goal percentage, shoot the 3 better, and has a better free throw percentage.
This is a home game for Okie State and yet they are only favored by 1. This means the odds makers even think N. Texas is better if you take away home field advantage.
No doubt Okie State has had a tougher schedule.
I guess it gets down to what you believe in. Tougher schedule? Better analytics? Contrarian better?
@Coloneljim
I like Okie St here as well. One thing they don’t do is NIL, which is one of the reasons they cannot compete in the Big 12. Forget what they were like at the beginning of the season, how have they played in the last month or so? Thats what one wants to look at. SMU was a decent team this year and better than anything NT played, maybe not Memphis. The only teams OSU lost to at home this season were 9,4,3,1 seeds in the Big Dance.
Exactly.."recent form". NT away last 3-4 gms.Okl St home l3-4 games. Those are the home /away stats a capper should be considering.
As Riverfish says, no doubt Okl St has the tougher schedule. He states "I guess its what you believe in tougher schedule" Just because its a tougher schedule doesnt mean anything and its not what we just believe, you have to dig deeper on why you believe it. The key is Oki St margin of victory vs that schedule and what NTex's margin of victory is ie "on the road" vs their weak american conference schedule..and my #'s show that its not much. Yes, all the positive stats he mentions about NT , those seem to be skewed, because of the inferior raod opponents.
Oklahama St 80 ppg PF / 68 PA @ home vs a +14 AOPR beating that AOPR by 7.5 ppg over a 4 game home series ( recent form)+ HCA = 24.5. home rating
NTexas -1 AOPR beating that AOPR by 4 = 3 road rating over a recent 4 game road series. advantage Oklahoma St 21pt advantage w a +14 superior schedle 64 pppg defense @ home..Thats huge
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