UFGators2000

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replied to Tennessee at Vanderbilt (11/17/2012) in College Football Vandy is clearly the better team here. Vandy -4.5 View Post \| View Thread	Covers	19	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Utah State at Louisiana Tech (11/17/2012) in College Football Interesting game. Utah St has the 12th best Total D on paper, but a deeper look reveal that of the 9 FBS teams they've played, those team average just 370ypg, which would qualify for 92nd in the nation. So that stat is a bit misleading, and I think La Tech will be able to move the ball on Utah St. Flip side, La Tech is just awful on D. If you include the 4 provisional FBS teams, La Tech's D would rank 123 out of 124, with only Baylor having a worse defense. Utah St.'s offense is nothing to write home about, but even the most mediocre offenses could score regularly on this defense. I lean La. Tech on the side, but my official play is the OVER. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	23	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Toledo at Northern Illinois (11/14/2012) in College Football All signs point to UNI here. Unstoppable, balanced offense versus a rather generous defense. Thanks to Ball State, UNI now has film on how to beat Toledo. If/when Toledo gets down by a couple scores, not sure they have the firepower to get back in it. Will wait for the over/under to be released before I decide on that. UNI -10.5 View Post \| View Thread	Covers	73	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Kent State at Bowling Green (11/17/2012) in College Football BG has a good D on paper. They allow 285ypg, good for 6th best in the nation. But, the 9 FBS opponents they've played, if you add their Total O's up for the year, only average out to 375ypg, which would be good for 87th in the nation. So, it's easy to see how BG has the 6th best Total D in the nation. Kent St is vulnerable in Pass D, but I don't think BG is the team to take advantage of that. The past 3 games, the Falcons haven't topped 150 yards passing, averaging a whopping 97 passing ypg in those 3 games. Pretty awesome. With Ohio already having 2 conference losses(and 2 conf. games left against Ball St and Kent St), and with 2 weeks left in the season, this is an elimination game in the MAC East, with the winner more than likely headed for the conference title game. So I don't expect either team to come out flat, they both know what's at stake. I think this will be a stay around a 1 possession game for most of the game, then Kent to build on their lead in the 4th, and win going away. Kent St. ML View Post \| View Thread	Covers	16	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to week 12 lines / leans / notes...... in College Football Tennessee is a god damn mess. Vandy will cover and dominate the game. View Post \| View Thread	bookieassassin	17	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Week 9 card in College Football Been lurking for many years, been posting a lot more frequently here recently, so I figured what the hell and I'll start posting my plays. I wrote detailed explanations on each of these games in the Official Games forum, but won't do that here. Here we go: Navy ML Ball St/Army over Northwestern -5 Baylor ML Rice -2 Ohio U -7 SJSU -20.5 Louisiana Tech -30.5/Team Total over 54.5/game over 77.5/1H over 40 Oregon -30 1H Kentucky/Mizzou under 49.5 Penn St -1 Duke +27 Auburn +14.5 Large card, but there's a lot to like this week. Good luck brothers. View Post \| View Thread	UFGators2000	2	October 26, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Southern Mississippi at Rice (10/27/2012) in College Football Both teams suck. But Rice sucks a little less. Rice -2 View Post \| View Thread	Covers	7	October 25, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State (10/27/2012) in College Football This one might get ugly. All signs point to La Tech here. NMSU is 100th nationally in Total D and Scoring D. Ummm, that's not going to get it done. Tech's porous D has me a little worried, they are 119 out of 124 in Total D. However, NMSU is 94th nationally in Total Offense, so I don't really see them taking advantage of that D too much. But, with Tech's awful D, the backdoor is always open, so I'm going to tread lightly here. Small play on La Tech -30.5 Large play on OVER 77.5 Large play on 1H OVER. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	9	October 25, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Ohio State at Penn State (10/27/2012) in College Football Strength vs strength: OSU's run game(10th nationally) vs Penn St's run D(21st nationally). We won't know how effective Braxton Miller is going to be til the game starts, but I see him struggling, and not just cause of the injury. This is a good defense Penn St has. The more their backs are against the wall, the better they play. They check in 13th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just under 16 ppg. Strength vs weakness: Penn St. passing attack vs Ohio St pass D. OSU is a bottom feeder when it comes to pass D, that's no secret. Even after an "intervention" after the Indiana game, they got shredded by Purdue. Penn St. doesn't have sexy stats on offense, they are average, but the QB McGloin has really gotten progressed nicely this season. He doesn't make dumb mistakes, he's got 14 TD's to just 2 INT's. Pretty impressive. Penn St. PK View Post \| View Thread	Covers	27	October 25, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Texas State at San Jose State (10/27/2012) in College Football SJSU is a solid squad. They have a lot of strengths that are weaknesses for Texas St. SJSU has a top 10 passing offense, while Texas St is 85th in pass D. SJSU generates a nice pass rush, sacking the QB about 3.5 times a game, while Texas St. allows around 2 per game. When SJSU is playing at home this year, their PPG and Pass YPG go up. I see them throwing the ball early and often. And not sure Texas St. has the offensive firepower to backdoor cover. SJSU is a covering machine this year, and I see them doing it again here. SJSU -20.5 View Post \| View Thread	Covers	5	October 25, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Kentucky at Missouri (10/27/2012) in College Football This one is screaming Under. 2 inept offenses, 2 inept defenses. Awful QB play on both teams mainly due to injuries. I see a low scoring game that tops out in the 30's. Helps that the total right now is just above that key # of 49, currently at 49.5 Under 49.5 View Post \| View Thread	Covers	17	October 25, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Ohio at Miami (Ohio) (10/27/2012) in College Football Dat's a lot of juice. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	15	October 25, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colorado at Oregon (10/27/2012) in College Football Also will have a play on the Oregon Team Total over, whatever they decide to make it. Could be 80 for all I care! View Post \| View Thread	Covers	34	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Colorado at Oregon (10/27/2012) in College Football Last 3 games, the average score of Colorado's games have been 47-12. The avg ppg of those 3 previous teams is only 34.76, which would be good for 35th nationally. Now they are playing Oregon who is the 2nd highest scoring team nationally at 51 ppg. Yeah, advantage Oregon. Even if there is a repeat of last week, an OU scores 40+ in the 1st half and dicks around the 2nd, I still see a cover. Because last week against ASU, the Sun Devils only managed 2 touchdowns against all backups. And they are a top 20 offense yardage-wise. I don't see how Colorado, who ranks 102nd in total offense, is going to score shit against 1st, 2nd, or 3rd stringers. I actually see Oregon scoring a couple non offensive TD's. They have a damn good pass rush, averaging 3 a game, while Colorado is dead last in the nation, allowing just under 5 a game! So I see some strip/sack fumble returns, or the QB throwing too early and some pick 6's by the blazing fast Duck D. Small play on OU for the game, larger play on OU 1H. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	34	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Baylor at Iowa State (10/27/2012) in College Football Tough call here. I interpret the line as just home field advantage and a night game. We all know Baylor's defense is the worst in the world, but can ISU really take advantage of it? Last 3 games, ISU is only averaging 23 ppg, while Baylor is allowing 58 ppg including that ridiculous WV game, or 49 ppg if you leave that one out and substitute LMU. Either way, I just don't see ISU's defense making enough stops, or their offense taking advantage of Baylor's atrocious D. All 3 of ISU's losses have come to teams with a top 10 scoring offense. Baylor is 3rd nationally. Oh, almost forgot. ISU is in the midst of a QB controversy. Not good for late October. That doesn't bode well either. ISU has no reason to be favored in this game, gimme Baylor on the ML. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	14	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Iowa at Northwestern (10/27/2012) in College Football I like NU here. Iowa has a shit offense. So if/when they do get behind by a couple scores, I can't feel confident that they'll be able to get back in it, or backdoor cover. Northwestern -6 View Post \| View Thread	Covers	22	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Cincinnati at Louisville (10/26/2012) in College Football Concerns me that this is just UC's 2nd road game(I know they played a neutral site game). Both teams have played a shit schedule to this point, and both have struggled against lesser competition(UL struggled with USF, Southern Miss, and FIU. While UC struggled with Delaware St and Fordham). I think UC has the edge here, particularly on defense. They've forced 13 TO's so far, and get good pressure on the QB, averaging 3 sacks/gm and UL allows 2/gm. I think the difference in the game will be special teams, where these 2 teams are way far apart. UC is far superior in all aspects. UL is almost dead last in net punting, and are dreadful in punt/kick returns. UC +3.5 View Post \| View Thread	Covers	77	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Ohio at Miami (Ohio) (10/27/2012) in College Football Only a couple things worth noting here. Miami's defense is awful. 115 out of 124. Allowing 500 ypg. Flip side, OU has an extremely balanced offense. And OU is 2nd in the nation in turnover margin(18 forced TO's compared to only 3 TO's). Miami is 80th in the nation in turnover margin(9 forced TO's compared to 12 TO's by them). I have no problem that this line is stuck at the key # of 7. I see a 10-17 point win for a very underrated OU team. OU -7. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	15	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Navy at East Carolina (10/27/2012) in College Football Navy ML The QB change to the freshman has been a blessing in disguise for Navy. Counting the AF game in which he came in as an injury replacement, the Midshipmen have averaged 30 ppg the last 3 games. Before the AF game? 14.5ppg. Take out the 41-3 win against mighty VMI, 5.6 ppg. Granted, Navy played ND, Penn St, and San Jose St those games, so it's easy to see why they only averaged that little amount. But that tough schedule early on is paying dividends now. Those first 3 games of the year, Navy committed 10 turnovers. Since the QB change to Reynolds? 0 turnovers in 3 games, and even a spark in the passing game, he threw for 3 TD's against CMU. Navy's HC has raved about Reynolds all year, even before he inherited the starting QB role. Now we see why. I don't see a blowout here, given that ECU has a pretty good run D, and an awful pass D. I don't see Navy trying to chuck it up in the air more just cause ECU is bad in pass D. I think they might be able to catch them off guard a few times using play action though. I didn't even mention the fact that this is your typical "team playing a triple option offense that they don't see very often in the middle of conference play" game, I see a 7-10 point win for the Midshipmen. Navy ML View Post \| View Thread	Covers	9	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nevada at Air Force (10/26/2012) in College Football Going with Nevada and the OVER here. Nevada is the most balanced team in the nation, yardage wise. However, they do like to run it. They've ran the ball 50+ times in 6 of their 8 games, 4 of those were road games(4-0 SU; 2-2 ATS). I bring this up because Air Force blows at Run D, allowing an average of 222 RYP/G. Nevada's total defense is misleading. They are 87th overall in total D, but 254 of their 411 yards allowed per game are via the pass. Clearly Air Force won't be doing much of that, averaging just 11 pass attempts per game. Flip side, Nevada has a somewhat respectable run D, allowing 155 RYP/G. All they need is a few stops, and they should cover this number, while racking up the points themselves. Nevada & the OVER. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	57	October 24, 2012 View Post \| View Thread

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