UT_Howie

Ari +112 1.5U:  Mets are a mess right now.  They are simply not scoring any runs of late.  Mets average 1.9 runs/game L10 while getting shutout 3 times.  I'm not saying that Ari is any better by any means, but their bats woke up against Pelfrey yesterday and I hope they can can have similar success against the knockleballer Dickey.  Enright has solid numbers at Mobile before getting call up to the Majors this year.  With the way Mets' bats have been, maybe scoring 3 or 4 runs against them would win it.  I'll back the home dog in this situation.

Sea +110 1U:  Danks open as -145 fav and WSox has been bet down to -125 against Fister and the M's?  Sea has been awful and Fister hasn't had much success of late.  WSox are overwhelming public fav here and the line went down?  Going against the public in this spot (not that I like M's much).

Det +111 1U:  I just can't pass up Det plus money in this spot.  I know, I know, Det is on a 6-game losing streak (got swept by that powerhouse Cle no less) and Tex is playing well, with 6-0 Hunter on the mound.  I hate going against a streak, winning or losing, but it's either Det or no bet.

KC -102 1U:  Litsch shouldn't be a road fav to any team.  Period.  Lerew had a decent year at Omaha and KC until the last 2 starts, where he got shredded on the road against LAA and CHW.  KC does have the best BA in the Majors this year, so I look for KC to score a few runs against Litsch here and keep this game competitive. 

Whew, Minn held on for the win.  Bases loaded top 9 with one out and 2 runs in already.  Jesus it's never easy. 

Fla just couldn't do anything to Strasburg and the Wash bullpen.  I thought since Strasburg would only pitch 5-6 innings or so, if the game is close, Fla would certainly have the advantage vs Wash bullpen.  Guess wrong. 

I'll take a 2-1 day anyday.  Up 1.5U.

I also like the under 8 on Hou/Pitt, as both teams struggled with bats of late and Myers has been decent.  Only 0.5U though, as I'm not certain how well Duke will pitch coming back from injury. 

Lastly Marlins +103 for 1U as Strasburg's line continues to be inflated.  Plus he's still on pitch limit so most likely Fla will have chance to hit against Wash's bullpen.

A bit short on time.  Just a quick post on ChW/Minn game.  Minn is -130 favorite?  WTF?  White Sox on 9 game winning streak and with a hot Floyd on the mount, whereas Twinkies counter with Liriano, who's been hit harder than a piñata lately, and Sox a dog?

Given the fact that Twinkies dominated White Sox last year, this year the record is only 3-3 against White Sox.  I just don't see why Minn opened as fav for this game.  The line has kept steady all day as well.  Something isn't right.  Thus Minn -130 or nothing.  2 units.

Sea (Vargas) at Det (Verlander), line +170/-180, 7.5

If Vargas pitches for NYY or Bos, he certainly would have been more celebrated.  Would probably have a better record as well, better than the 6-4 he is sporting now.  Instead he pitches for the bottom dweller Sea and has gone largely unnoticed.  His 2.80 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are amongst the AL leads.  His counterpart Verlander has a better W-L record at 9-5, with a decent 4.02 ERA.  Verlander has enjoyed very good run supports from his Det teammates, averaging 5.25 runs/game.  If you dug a bit deeper, you see that in his 5 losses Det scored 2.4 runs/game (this figure is skewed by 6 run support loss, 6-14).  In his wins, the run support averages 6.11 runs/game.  So the bottom line is that if he gets the run support, his stuff is good enough to give his team the W.  I think Vargas can keep the score low, hence at this price and the scoring trend in Verlander's games, Sea has a decent shot at stealing a win here.  I was on Sea yesterday as I thought similarly that Fister was getting a good price against Scherzer.  I did also mentioned the only thing I was afraid of was a letdown spot after a hard fought/good series against NYY.  Of course Sea didn't put up a fight and lost 7-1.  I think with a loss behind them, Sea will put up a better effort today.  I simply can't pass up this price with Vargas.  I lean under here, but not so crazy about the 7.5 -125 o/u line.   I would have bite at under 8 -110.  So just a lean on the under. 

Pick Sea +170 0.75U

Lean under 7.5 -125

SF (Zito) at Col (Jimenez), line +188/-205, 7.5

SF has lost 7 straight to fall 6.5 games behind SD.  They simply aren't scoring runs during this stretch, averaging 2.16 runs/game, with no more than 3 runs scored in any of them.  Now they have to face arguably the best pitcher this season in Jimenez on the road.  Jimenez proved that he is human in the past couple starts giving up 6 in 5.2 innings vs Bos and 4 runs in 6 innings at SD.  However, he was facing a red hot Red Sox team in the rain, and his offense did bail him out and ultimately won the game.  He's gone 14-1, with one ND (Bos) and one 2-0 loss to LAD.  Other than one game at Ari, where he won by only one run (3-2), all other wins have come by 2+ runs.  I have mentioned that I'm not a big fan of betting RL on heavy fav, but this is just too good of a spot to pass up.  I'm going to keep riding this money train.  I lean heavy on the under, but we are playing at Coors Field (although not as hitter friendly now days as before) and both Zito and Jimenez have given up some runs lately, I'll pass on it. 

Pick Col RL+105 1.5U

Lean under 7.5-125

7/3/10 Update

Pick Cubs +110 0.5U

Pick Tor/NYY under 8.5 -115 1U (Guess I was way off, however, Yankees had only 2 hits outside of the 7 hits/11 runs 3rd inning.  Granted that big inning changed the dynamics of the game.  Moving on.)

Pick Flo/Atl over 8 -120 1U

Pick NYM/Wash under 7 -125 0.5U

Pick Mil/StL under 8 -105 0.5U

BOL.  I'm on the other side for the Cin/Cubs game.  That line reeks.  Cin is hot and hitting, Chicago is cold and can't even spell the word "hit" right now.  You have Cueto, who so far has a great season statistically against Wells, who is winless in the past 11 tries.  Oh, let's not forget about the atrocity yesterday.  Yet Cin opened at -115 only?  Perhaps I'm reading too much into this, but I just can't bet Cin today (took Cin yesterday as you know)

BTW, thanks for the kind words yesterday.  I didn't have a chance to reply.

7/3/10 Update

Pick Cubs +110 0.5U

Pick Tor/NYY under 8.5 -115 1U

Pick Flo/Atl over 8 -120 1U

Pick NYM/Wash under 7 -125 0.5U

Pick Mil/StL under 8 -105 0.5U

Mil (Parra) at StL (Carpenter), line +185/-200, 8

This is going to be the definition of a square play, StL RL +105.  I'm not sure I will pull the trigger however, as I mentioned yesterday that I'm not a big fan of taking RL on heavy favs.  On paper, StL absolutely should win this game with ease.  Carpenter is sporting a 9-1 record with 2.70 ERA while reliever/starter Parra shows a 2-5 record with 4.12 ERA.  Parra's record as starter is 1-2 with 4.37 ERA in 7 starts.  Also note that he has not lasted past 6 innings in any of his starts.  So you have to figure StL will get to Mil's bullpen, with 2nd highest ERA in the Major thus far.  I'm trying to find reasons to talk myself out of this bet, so here it is.  Carpenter gave up 5 ER in 7 innings in the only outing against Mil this year.  He got ND as Mil eventually won.  His career ERA against Mil is 4.13, so it's not that impressive considering this is NL, where ERA tends to be lower than AL.  Furthermore, Parra has limited his opponents to 4 runs or less as a starter (4 runs only once), but since his outings were short, the ERA inflated as the result.  StL hasn't been teeing off the ball lately.  In fact, they're only 5-5 last 10, with only 3 of those wins by 2+ runs. I can totally see maybe a 2-1 or 2-2 game in the 7th when Mil's bullpen takes over and eventually lose the game by one run.  I think I just talked myself out of this game.  Hope I didn't over-analyze.  I do like the under 8, but a bit wary about Mil's bullpen.  But if my assessment is correct, then this maybe a 4-2 or 3-2 type of game.  I'll bite on the under, 0.5U.

Lean StL RL +105

Pick under 8 -105 0.5U

TB (Davis) at Minn (Liriano), line +137/-147, 8.5

Davis started the season 3-1, but have gone 2-8 since.  However, out of his 9 losses, 4 are by 1 run and another by 2 runs.  All 5 of these were low scoring games (so he didn't give up many runs).  Liriano had gone similar route, starting out 4-0 with 2 shutouts, then he's gone 2-6 since.  I don't have a feel for this game, as both team have been mediocre and both pitchers have struggle of late.  I'm predominately a dog/under bettor, so my lean would be TB here, as they are getting money in this spot.  I think it's a toss-up.  I also lean over 8.5.  Not betting this game.

Lean TB +137 and over 8.5+105

NYM (Dickey) at Wash (Strasburg), line +160/-170, 7

Wow, talk about contrast of pitching style in this matchup.  We have the knuckleballer against the flame-thrower.  Dickey has a breakout season so far, with 6-1 record and a sub 3 ERA (2.98).  Boy Wonder got shutout twice in a row to bring his record to 2-2 along with an impressive 2.27 ERA.  After Strasburg won his initial 2 outings against cupcakes Pit and Cle, he has ran up against the wall vs White Sox, KC and Atl.  He only gave up a combined 5 runs in those games, but his offense scored a total of one run in support of him for those games.  In my opinion, opposing pitchers are motivated to pitch against the supposed 2nd coming of Cy Young, so I'm looking to fade Strasburg down the line.  You should get pretty good price each time for a while longer.  I have taken the under on all 5 Strasburg game so far this season, going 4-1.  I will again take the under 7 on this one.  I'm just a bit wary of Dickey, who finally lost his first game of the season, giving up 5 runs in his shortage outing (5 innings) this season.  I'm also always nervous betting on o/u when a knuckleballer is involved.  Nonetheless, 0.5U wager on under 7.  As far as side is concern, my lean is NYM +160.  I think Mets will keep this one close.  May even win it.  Again, just a lean assuming I have to make a choice.  

Pick under 7 -125 0.5U

Lean NYM +160

Flo (Sanchez) at Atl (Hanson), line+153/-163, 8

Hanson has struggled in his last 2 outings, lasting only 3.2 innings in each while giving up 9 and 5 ER.  Sanchez has been a model of consistency, going 7-4 with 3.18 ERA.  Atl won the game in extra innings yesterday, scoring 2 runs in the bottom of 10th after Flo took the lead on the top of 10th.  Screw me out of a 2U under play (pushed).  Will Hanson's struggle continue?  Normally I would have taken the dog in this spot, but I'm wary of Atl's best home record in the Major.  Prior to the 2 game slide, Hanson had gone 4-0 in 5 games, giving up a total of 9 runs only.  I'm going to pass on the side, but slight lean on Atl.  I like the over here, as Hanson has gone 10-1 o/u after a 0-4-1 o/u start.  Either Atl pounds the balls or his opponent pounds him during this stretch.  Both Hanson and Sanchez's starts against the other team (not against each other) this season went over the total. 

Lean Atl -163 

Pick over 8 -120 1U

Tor (Romero) at NYY (Pettitte), line +160/-170, 8.5

I'm a bit surprised by Pettitte's success this year.  He has the best ERA amongst Yankees starters and his 9 total wins is only one behind CC and Hughes.  Romero has been a model of consistency for Tor this year.  If Tor gave him a bit more offensive support, he could easily have 10 wins by now.  His only bad outing out of 16 starts is at LAA, where he gave up 7 runs in 5.1 innings.  As I mentioned yesterday in my thread, it's hard to pick side between these 2 clubs.  Offensively, both have been cold, although Tor broke out with a 5 run 10th inning yesterday.  The 6 total runs scored by Tor is the highest in 11 games.  In that span, they got shutout twice and scored one run 3 times.  Pitching wise, I think they're both equally good, albeit Pettitte has a better record.  Again, it's no secret that NYY line is always inflated because they're the Yankees, but I'm not certain there is any value in taking Tor today after Tor won the game yesterday.  I don't want to get into a big debate over the definition of "value", but it's so over-used and mis-used in this forum.  In my opinion, it's not necessary "value" just because you get a plus sign in front of the number.  If you pick a loser, there is no value there regardless the dog is +120 or +300.  I understand the argument that you should use long term projection to determine whether the bet is profitable, but I just feel each game is unique in itself and rarely will you have 2 or 3 games within a season where all conditions are equal.  It's not just about the pitching matchup.  Ok, enough said about that subject.  I'm sure I'll hear comments on that topic later.  I still like the under for this game and will bet 1U on it.  Not picking side, but lean NYY -170 (but I hardly will actually bet anything above -130, just not in my DNA).  I think since Tor pulled that one out of the hat yesterday, today is a good spot for NYY.

Pick under 8.5 -115 1U

Lean NYY -170