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forgot to mention that i put a small play on SD before the playoffs to win the AFC at 24/1 to odds for $50, so my ideal situation is if Indy plays SD in the AFC championship.
Taking colts to cover 7.5 this week doesn't do me any good, if NE blows them out, I lose the spread + the futures play. Any other angles I'm missing guys? Thanks
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verizonsam | 7 |
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took Colts before playoffs on a futures bet for $600 at 35/1 ($21,000) to win the SB; if they made it to the SB, I would hedge. Now that they're set to play NE, I see NE is +350 to win the AFC championship. here is what I'm thinking
Scenario 1: Colts make SB, I hedge, guaranteed money. Let's say it's against Seattle worst matchup possible from a ML perspective, I'm guessing it would be -300. I would hedge Seattle risking $9000 to win $3000. Sea wins $2400 (minus the $600 futures bet) or Colts win $12,000 (minus the $9000 on Seattle). Any other team matchup and I end up making more as the odds will be more in my favor. Scenario 2: Take NE to win AFC risking $400 (+350) to win $1400. If NE wins and faces Denver, I'm projecting Denver would be about -4 @ -200 ML (given that NE was -1 at home when they last played). In this scenario, I would play NE for $300 as well, thus coming up on the +350/-200 difference and collecting $600 and cancelling out my Colts futures bet. Am I missing any other factors? Sounds like a no-brainer to put $400 on NE to win the AFC championship and thus making my Colts play a free play, no?
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verizonsam | 7 |
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haven't seen them released on a lot of sportsbooks, anyone have one that has the odds up for each team?
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verizonsam | 1 |
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and that's missing the entire 4th quarter in game one. are you kidding me? i would guarantee that the thunder would have had at least 1 more win if Maynor was at the point instead of number 0.
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verizonsam | 4 |
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He's hiding? the ball in there from his greedy point guard
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damiexxx | 65 |
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Play every single under. you got to be shitting me, 8 straight unders the last 2 days, assuming Lakers/Hornets shoot like shit the last 3 minutes.
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verizonsam | 2 |
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Up 16 late in 4th, 13-0 run by portland off a back to back. go to hell
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verizonsam | 1 |
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yeah, that killed my under
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italbeans88 | 13 |
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with a 26 ft 3 pointer as the game ended
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verizonsam | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by banans: me too ![]() ![]() ![]() have a good night, sir! ![]() |
verizonsam | 7 |
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that was a double moose, the o/u was 197.5. i was on the right end, i had wash +13 and over, one last meaningless play changed both wagers. sorry to those on the wrong side, get them next time.
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makedatmoola | 29 |
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yeah, sorry for those on the wrong end, been there many times, but that was a dual moose
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verizonsam | 7 |
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verizonsam | 7 |
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replied to
HERE is how figure if totals are off and the spread when betting on NFL and NBA
in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by IC85:
Quote Originally Posted by verizonsam: i got the same numbers too, but based shouldn't it be since sf should be -4.5, but is actually -1.5, that it's a fishy line and you take arizona? confused a bit I'm just going by the numbers. If you use this system on next weeks games there are a quie a few differences: Cle @ Mia (-4.5) comes up Cle -0.6 Chi (-3.5) @ Det comes up Chi -6.7 Den @ KC (-7) comes up KC -11.5 Buf @ Min (-6.5) comes up Min -1.5 NO (-7) @ Cin comes up NO -11.9 Atl (-3) @ TB comes up Atl -6.5 Pit @ Bal (-3) comes up Pit -1 NYJ @ NE (-3.5) comes up NYJ -0.8 right. i agree with your numbers, but i'm just trying to grasp the logic. since sf is -1.5, but based on the "system" it should be -4.5, are we to take a) SF because we are getting value in only having to give 1.5 pts when it should be -4.5 or b) Ariz because the line is fishy, sf should be giving -4.5 based on the system and -1.5 is the actual line, hence the fishiness/red flag? |
dawniewags | 71 |
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replied to
HERE is how figure if totals are off and the spread when betting on NFL and NBA
in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by Snappa: I don't mean to split hairs, Dawniewags, but in your first post you listed the SD/IND score as 35-14. It was actually 36-14, for a total of 50 pts. you used SD IND game. the 35-14 was MNF with Den vs SD |
dawniewags | 71 |
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replied to
HERE is how figure if totals are off and the spread when betting on NFL and NBA
in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by IC85: Using your system, here's what I come up with for tonight: SF@ ARI O/U 43 (Pinny has it at 41.5) - No Play, too close SF -4.5 (Pinny has them at -1.5) - Worth the play, getting 3 pts i got the same numbers too, but based shouldn't it be since sf should be -4.5, but is actually -1.5, that it's a fishy line and you take arizona? confused a bit |
dawniewags | 71 |
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replied to
HERE is how figure if totals are off and the spread when betting on NFL and NBA
in Systems & Strategies
i have a question:
for NBA, this is what i got from Miami vs Wash game: Wash Pts Scored: 476 Allowed: 560 Difference: -84/5 games = -16.8 Miami Pts scored: 503 Allowed 466 Difference: +37/5 games = +7.4 thus, around 24 pt difference. the line is Miami -12. since that's a big difference, does that mean take Miami or Washington? |
dawniewags | 71 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KBrick84: If you're questioning Romar, you are an idiot. This team is YOUNG off the bench, and the bench needs to get as much experience as it can early in the season. They aren't going to come in and slow it down...as it's not Washington's style of basketball. They bring them in, and see if they can hold their own in that style. So quit your bitching. The bench was in for nearly the last 10-12mins of the 2nd half. so their style is to use a few seconds of a 35 second shot clock and shoot ass soon as they get the ball? wtf kind of a style is that? you want to tell your YOUNG players to shoot as soon as you get the ball at the 3 point arc? i woudn't be bitching if they developed their shots and shot and made it, the fact that 90% of their trips up the court they shot the ball with less than 5-6 seconds used on the clock, with one pass maximum. |
mikeyv31 | 40 |
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Quote Originally Posted by mikeyv31: I am on tilt not because I lost but because there was only 33 points in 1st 10 minutes of half then over 50 it is a joke for a score like that same boat as you man. i lost on a teaser when the heat couldn't win the game, lost on 2nd half on the jazz when they were up 25 pts and finished winning only by 11, then this game. not bitter, just seriously no way to wager consistently. i'm completely done gambling, this shit will shorten your life and back account. ![]() |
mikeyv31 | 40 |
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if you have you're 2nd string guys in, why are they chucking up 3's after only using 4 seconds of the shot clock? don't you want to develop their game against a non-practice defense? you think they can just chuck shots up like that against a top 25 school?
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mikeyv31 | 40 |
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