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3rd and 7 at the end of the first half, out of a timeout, delay of game.  Instead of converting they give it back to the Pats, which led to a TD.  That was a  7, 10, or 14 point swing.  There's your ball game.

Scal, off to a very, very good start buddy.  It's early, but you couldn't have asked for a better start.

First off, save your "I thought you had work to wrap up" comment.  It's lazy and predictable.

Your the one who is pushing that issue.  I'm merely addressing your comments.  Is it a non factor?  Possibly.  Are either of the two guys involved friends with the other players?  To what extent?  Was someone banging someone's girlfriend?  Roommates with a starter?  Did the coaches have to take time out of their game planning to address questions surrounding the issue?  Take phone calls from parents?  Did all of this cut into time to game plan?  Does any of this have anything to do with the loss last week?

I guess I have to say it again.  I understand your parallel.  I've already mentioned the factors that I feel decrease its significance.  Hell, you may be right.  Our opinions differ.  That's it.  Let it go.

God I wish I could give you the opportunity to slap me.

Trust me, you will be the furthest thing from my mind tonight while I enjoy my kids, family, and friends.

If you win, I'll be back to tell you nice job.  If you lose I probably won't respond.  That's not who I am, not my MO.  I simply wanted to hear your reasoning for this being a POY.  Like your decision to respond to trolls, you decided to get defensive with me.  I'm here to gather info through constructive conversation.  I didn't think my comments were offensive, but I guess it's possible that they were.
Good luck and congrats on your returns.

Yeah, I, forgot, coaches field questions every week about on campus shootings involving their players.  I'm sure the players in the locker room didn't talk about the incident at all. I'm sure it wasn't a distraction whatsoever.  Yes he was talking about the on field contribution of those two players, and ignorantly so.  I wasn't, because it has an off the field effect that can't be measured.  Geez, I would think someone with such a superior grasp on the psychological aspect of capping would understand that.  Is this the part where I insert the rolling, laughing head?    DERRRR

I understand the parallels you are trying to make, I just don't agree with them.  Two teams with no familiarity whatsoever playing a game in September.  Two teams in conference, with two coaches who were on the same staff not too long ago playing a homecoming game in November.  You are saying that the let down, bounce back to salvage the season supercedes that.  I don't think it does.  Amazing, people have different opinions.  Go figure.


Listen, you want to be dismissive of everyone that disagrees with you, then go ahead.  Maybe it's due to the volume of trolls you have to deal with, I don't know.  If only there was a psychological expert around we could consult.  Know anyone, you self proclaimed superior intellect?

Now if you'll excuse me, I have work to wrap up and take the family to a Guy Fawkes bonafire tonight.  Your forced Watergate reference impresses nobody, smart guy.  Like a couple other veteran posters alluded to, you just want hand jobs and seek to confront "trolls" because it's an easy victory.  Your capping universe?  GTFO.  Any measure of intellect between you and I, line it up. Covers legend.  That isn't a trophy on the wall, it's embarrassing.  Chrissakes, I had to wish you good luck and preface my comments with a compliment in an attempt to not hurt your obviously fragile ego and this is still where it ended up. 

An on campus shooting involving players has no effect? I know it's a week and a half removed, but it surely has some effect.  To what extent is hard to say, but to dismiss it entirely is ignorant.

Maximum effort?  You don't think the team playing in their homecoming, trying to become bowl eligible, bringing alumni/former NFL All Pro, Olympic medalist Michael Carter in for pep talks, local rappers closing out meetings, getting the players hyped up isn't going to exert maximum effort?

Listen dude, I'm not trying to bust balls, but you are being extremely inconsistent here.  There are no parallels between Rutgers predictably getting nothing going at Happy Valley and Washington St laying an egg to Portland St to this game.  None.  WSU @ Rutgers was a non conference game.  This game is not only a conference game, but a divisional game.  Nobody was surprised by Tulsa beating Memphis, and SMU had a gritty road win at Tulane. 

Memphis' o-line is young and incohesive.  SMU can bring pressure and create turnovers in the secondary.  The redshirt freshman for SMU is a bit of a gunslinger and is scary to back.  POY?  On an inconsistent team that doesn't take care of the ball?

I hope your ticket cashes, but the empty rhetoric is hard to ignore.

POY is the away team on the home team's homecoming, in a matchup of two inconsistent, turnover prone teams.

You must have one hell of a read.  Wish I could actually read it.

Just don't respond to the trolls.  You choose to respond.  Can't be smart and dumb at the same time.  It doesn't work that way.  Others have said you enjoy it.  Hard to disagree.

It's like banging your head against a wall.  You don't like banging your head against a wall, do you?   


I don't know much about either of these teams and haven't read anything good in here to justify a tail.  As I mentioned earlier, you laid out all your POY criteria, yet this pick has so much contradiction to said criteria.  I would've rather read some equivocation than watch you stumble over your own feet trying to justify how the same info on both sides only applies to one side.

Good luck on your play.

Solid comments Scal, particularly about the offenses Memphis and SMU played the week prior.  That will definitely cut down on the prep work throughout the week with the concepts already in place from the week prior.

One comment that you made that I wanted to discuss:
-----
Week 8/9/10 are the perfect times to strike for POY's because they teams are fully characterized and their bowl hopes are clearly evident: two crucial forces to help you structure a bet. I'll be back.
-------

SMU's remaining schedule:

Memphis
@ ECU
USF
Navy

Needing two more wins for bowl eligibility (a huge factor by your own admission), looking at the schedule, this looks like a must win for that to happen.  Throw in the curb stomping at Memphis last year and this looks like a big revenge game.  Bowl eligibility + revenge game + a team characterized as over achieving/believing in themselves.

It sounds like you are ignoring factors that you deemed to be important.  I'm curious to hear your reasoning.  Thanks in advance.  BOL.

No plays for me tonight, but the fireworks show in LA is tempting.  I wouldn't be surprised one bit if that game goes over 250.

Overall MAH YTD
ATS: 2-0 
SU: 2-0 
O/U: 1/1 
TT:  1/1

My MAH plays YTD
ATS: 1-0  (+.45)
SU: 1-0 (+.5) 
O/U: 0-0 
TT:  0-0

Misc MAH plays YTD
1st half: 0-1 (-.5)

Before MAH YTD
ATS: 1-1 
SU: 1-1 
O/U: 2/0 
TT:  2/0

Before MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0
SU: 0-0
O/U: --
TT:  --

After MAH YTD
ATS: 1-0
SU: 1-0 
O/U: 1/0 
TT:  1/0

After MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0  
SU: 0-0
O/U: 0-0
TT: 0-0

Other plays
ATS: 0-1 (-.5)
Player props: 1-1 (-.58)

Bankroll start: 50 units
Current: 49.37 (3-3 overall)

The play: CLE -8.5 L
Risk: .5 to win .45
-This was a cover damn near the entire game, only to have Boston back door at the end.  Down by 17 at the start of the 4th, this game wasn't as close as the score indicates.  The defending champs at home, rested, vs a short roster on a back to back.  I still believe this was a good play.

LeBron James Total REB+AST W
Risk .5 to win .42
-Dropping dimes, dropping dimes.  Came out with 8 dimes and 1 rebound to start.  In the end he got it done.  Top 5 player of all time.  You're just wrong if you don't agree.  Good play.

Isaiah Thomas over 1.5 3PTM L
Risk .5 to win .31
-Certainly not for a lack of trying.  If I told you Thomas had 30 points wouldn't you think for sure that he dropped a couple treys?  Wrong.  0-6 from distance.  Was shooting 33% from 3 entering this game.  All the numbers were there for this to hit, just didn't happen.

1-2 on the night, -1.08.  Not a MAH game.  Alot of good info to take away.  Brad Stevens can't be happy with his team's defensive performance.  I don't expect this to be the norm as Boston gets closer to having their entire roster at Stevens' disposal.  Next game is at home vs Denver, who will be in the middle of a 5 game road trip, playing a back to back flying in from Detroit. A single digit line will most likely be a play for me.  These plays are going to require swallowing a lot of points.  When a situation like the Bulls game presents itself again with even money, or plus money,  it will be an increased play for me.

The play: CLE -8.5
Risk: .5 to win .45

Adding the following player props:

LeBron James Total REB+AST
Risk .5 to win .42
-Think we see a very active LeBron tonight.  Averaging a triple double and making Kyrie scoring champ could be very real goals for LeBron to keep him motivated during the regular season.  He would never tell anyone this though.

Isaiah Thomas over 1.5 3PTM
Risk .5 to win .31
-Juice showed -120, shot up to -160.  This prop is 4-0YTD.

Hope these aren't reaches.  Discipline.  Discipline.  Discipline.  BOL

BOS@CLE -8.5

I had this one circled after Boston lost at Chicago.  Most of my reasoning was that the 2nd unit missed Marcus Smart.  Well, he's back, but that's OK.  Smart played a ton of minutes last night.  He had 6 turnovers, which tells me two things:  1) He's pressing.  No surprise there.  A player like Smart was probably chomping at the bit to get back into action.  2)  His stamina might not quite be there.  I read a report that he was going hard at practice the day before.  He'll be relied upon tonight to defend LeBron.  This brings us to our other Celtic's fade material:  Jae Crowder is out.  LeBron's primary defender will be missed tonight on a roster that is already short.  It will be Jerebko, Amir Johnson, and Smart trying to check LeBron.  Cleveland is well rested.  They've been at home for almost a week, and have only left Cleveland once this year for a short trip to Toronto and back.  Meanwhile, Boston is 24 hours between tip times, including flight to Cleveland.  This is a bad spot for Boston in my opinion.  I locked this in last night at -8.5.  Not a MAH game, but the same principles apply.

Side note:  Boston is missing two other key contributors from last season:  Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger.  Add in Olynyk, Horford, and Crowder.  This team's roster is a lot shorter than I think alot of people realize.

The play: CLE -8.5
Risk: .5 to win .45 

Overall MAH YTD
ATS: 2-0 
SU: 2-0 
O/U: 1/1 
TT:  1/1

My MAH plays YTD
*** ATS: 1-0  (+.45) ***
SU: 1-0 (+.5) 
O/U: 0-0 
TT:  0-0

Misc MAH plays YTD
1st half: 0-1 (-.5)

Before MAH YTD
ATS: 1-1 
SU: 1-1 
O/U: 2/0 
TT:  2/0

Before MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0
SU: 0-0
O/U: --
TT:  --

After MAH YTD
ATS: 1-0
SU: 1-0 
O/U: 1/0 
TT:  1/0

After MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0  
SU: 0-0
O/U: 0-0
TT: 0-0

Bankroll start: 50 units
Current: 50.45 (2-1)


*** EDIT ***

Overall MAH YTD
ATS: 2-0 
SU: 2-0 
O/U: 1/1 
TT:  1/1

My MAH plays YTD
ATS: 1-0  (+.5)
SU: 1-0 (+.5) 
O/U: 0-0 
TT:  0-0

Misc MAH plays YTD
1st half: 0-1 (-.5)

Before MAH YTD
ATS: 1-1 
SU: 1-1 
O/U: 2/0 
TT:  2/0

Before MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0
SU: 0-0
O/U: --
TT:  --

After MAH YTD
ATS: 1-0
SU: 1-0 
O/U: 1/0 
TT:  1/0

After MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0  
SU: 0-0
O/U: 0-0
TT: 0-0

Bankroll start: 50 units
Current: 50.45 (2-1)

Line: ATS:  CHA -13 (-110) W SU: -1200 W  O/U: 196 O  TT: 91.5 (PHI) O
The play: Hornets -13 W
Risk: .5 to win .45
The play:  Hornets 1st half -7.5 L
Risk: .5 to win .45

Like novacane, just give it time.  Trust the process.  Philly jumped out front in the first half, but yet again had nothing to offer after halftime.  Earlier in this thread I said that Embiid is arguably their best player. There is no argument, he is their best player.  When Dario Saric and newly acquired Ersan Ilyasova are taking the most FGA for your team you know you're in trouble.  Don't let a couple early season covers ATS fool you, this team is bad.

I had no business making a 1st half play.  However, this could be an inexpensive, valuable lesson.  If our fade team exceeds expectations in the 1st half, then perhaps a regression to the mean is more likely to occur in the 2nd half.  I will be watching this going forward.

You're calling a bad beat BEFORE the game?

Horford missing the game is not nearly as impactful as the return of Marcus Smart.

Overall MAH YTD
ATS: 1-0 
SU: 1-0 
O/U: 0/1 
TT:  0/1

My MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0 
SU: 1-0 (+.5) 
O/U: 0-0 
TT:  0-0

Misc MAH plays YTD
1st half: 0-0

Before MAH YTD
ATS: 1-1 
SU: 1-1 
O/U: 2/0 
TT:  2/0

Before MAH plays YTD
ATS: -- 
SU: --
O/U: -- 
TT:  --

After MAH YTD
ATS: 1-0
SU: 1-0 
O/U: 1/0 
TT:  1/0

After MAH plays YTD
ATS: 0-0  
SU: 0-0
O/U: 0-0
TT: 0-0

Bankroll start: 50 units
Current: 49.5 (1-0)

Again, still finding my footing with included info, format, etc.  Do I add more lines to track outcomes of the 1, 2, and 3 star games? Ugh.

11/2: PHI*@CHA

The 76ers gave the Magic a run for their money, leading big at halftime, only to give up 41 in the 3rd and score only 14 in the 4th to lose a close one.  A bad turnover by Embiid and an unlucky bounce at the other end sealed their fate.

Rest is definitely a factor that coaches, books and bettors account for.  This was a known fact going in.  What we are hoping for is to identify the most advantageous of these situations to capitalize on.  I'm going to add a few more lines to track:  over/under and team totals for the MAH games.  I'm also going to track ATS, SU, O/U, and TT(fade team) results for the games before and after the MAH games.  Focusing on only the MAH games may leave us vulnerable to inflated lines, and perhaps some valuable information can be found in the games occurring before and after the MAH games.

I was hoping for a single digit spread in our MAH game as a result of this close contest.  Instead, I had a bit of sticker shock when it opened at 12.5.  It makes sense though.  Short rest for the 76ers, first road game, which comes on a back to back.  The hive should be rocking tonight.  After a disappointing home opening loss to Boston you can bet they want to get a W at home and put on a show for the crowd vs a lowly 76er squad.  Embiid, arguably Philly's best player, won't be playing tonight.  Okafor's defensive struggles are well documented.  I'm glad we are getting Okafor instead of Embiid.

Not thrilled to lay 13, but that's what we're gonna do.  I'm adding a 1st half play too.  13 is a big number, it isn't hard to imagine this getting backdoored in garbage time.  I'll track my 1st half plays only, not overall 1st half plays.

Line: ATS:  CHA -13 (-110) SU: -1200  O/U: 196  TT: 91.5 (PHI)
The play: Hornets -13
Risk: .5 to win .45
The play:  Hornets 1st half -7.5
Risk: .5 to win .45

Guys, I apologize if I'm a little bit all over the place.  The info that could be tracked goes on and on.  Once I get settled in it will be much easier to follow.  Before and after MAH game info, O/U, and TT updates soon to come...