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2019 Women's Word Cup

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Posted: #26
Norway-Australia draw +250 (5 units) 
Norway to advance +155 (12 units)




 
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Posted: #27
16-3-14 (w-d-l) : 16-3-14 +66.00 units

Brazil +1, 1.5 -111 (22.2 units)
France-Brazil over 2.5, 3 -109 (21.8 units) 
Brazil to advance +375 (4 units) 
Brazil to score first +300 (4 units) 

 
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Posted: #28
17-3-17 +56.2 units 

Spain-United State over 2.5 -120 (36 units)

A big one here, but I intended to play the game total and Spain team total over 0.5, but I missed it at the open and it's now at -120.  So instead of betting a total of 30 units across both bets, I'll stick to the total and hopefully get that if, in fact, Spain does find the net.  I think a 2-1 final here, possibly 3-1 if the US finds the net early    


 
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Posted: #29
Cash that 
 
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Posted: #30
alldub - thanks buddy, played that based mostly on analysis of the lines.  at times it works

Speaking of line analysis, oddsmakers are practically guaranteeing this ends in a 1-1 draw after regulation.  Some will argue a 1-0 Canada win, but the team total for Sweden is over 0.5 -205 and under 0.5 +165.  No chance they are dangling a +165.  They think, or for those conspiracist theorists, know Sweden will score.  The BTTS is juiced to -155, so maybe they favor a Sweden 1-0 win.  Basically, I've determined they are throwing lines all over the map to generate intrigue.  What I do know is of Sweden's last 12 regulation losses, they have allowed 2+ goals in 10 of them.  And in Canada's last 7 regulation losses, they have given up 2+ goals in 5 of them.  

Sweden-Canada over 1.5, 2 -130 (26 units)


 
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Posted: #31

Spaz I like to review all the lines like you do too, and I'm thinking the same thing, that they have this pinned to end 1-1, but I'm stubborn and took the under. Wanted to play Sweden but didn't have the stones. GL man peace_5

 
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Posted: #32
Cody - good stuff, I analyze everything, often times too much ha.  You're looking good on the low, but I'd be real surprised if Sweden doesn't score, so a 1-0 win by the Swedes might be coming our way
 
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Posted: #33

Yeah I'm still not counting out the 1-1 draw, to lead to ET then PK's, but sitting nicely at half......and I'm with you on the over analyzing. Sometimes I'll analyze 5 games, pick two of them that lose, and lay nothing on the other 3 and they sweep and go 3-0. Its maddening lol, but thats the game. GL rest of week brother 

 
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Posted: #34
and there it is.... a 1-0 Sweden win.  Analyzed myself into feeling odds were pointing that way and didn't play it, I guess I over-analyzed.  

Cody - nice hit on the under.  Maddening indeed, but as long as the +'s outweigh the -'s, all seems worth it ha
 
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Posted: #35
18-3-18 +60.2 units 

1-1 yesterday but managed some profit hitting the bigger bet on the over in Spain-US.  Sidebar, something seems very off in the futures lines for both USA and Germany, more on that later..  

For now, I’ve done enough mind exercise on today’s matches that I can’t even begin to do more... until later 

Hear me out for a minute..  the narrative oddsmakers are presenting us with are China will score (-185 for them to get a goal), the match goes under (2 total) based on China having no interest in attacking but China doesn’t advance in regulation (2-1 odds for that).  By this point, I hope you’ve recognized that all of those can’t happen so some of these lines are frauds..  I’ll start with China to score - I think it happens, but that’s really where I get off the oddsmakers story.  And I’m not as convinced it happens as much as I was with Sweden yesterday.  Since the Olympics, China is 3-5-8 in non-friendlies vs European sides.  In the 8 losses they’ve yielded 13 goals, greater than 1.5 per match.  

Over their last 15 losses in all formats, Italy has yielded 2+ goals in every match but the last one, the 1-0 loss to Brazil.  Historical data seems to suggest that both teams, when they lose, the over tends to play out more often than not.  

These nations last played in 2015, but the improvement and change in performance has been one sided as Italy has been marching up the ranks and China slowly fading.  One goal by either team, and with the knockout, this match will naturally change course.  We saw this in Canada-Sweden.  Chances were there, execution was not.  And I think the first goal comes here well before it did in that match 

Italy-China over 2 -121 (24.2 units)
Italy +111 (20 units) 
Italy over 1.5 +160 (10 units) 



 
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Posted: #36
Would have been nice to have that over, but I’ll certainly take the push 

Since the last World Cup in 2015, Japan has played 19 matches against teams who tend to attack first, control and park the bus somewhere lower on those ranks.  Japan has gone 2-4-13 (w-d-l) in these matches being outscored 21-47.  In only 2 of those 19 matches, they held their opponent to less than 2 goals and both were against Australia, a team they are very familiar with.  Netherlands loves to attack and, in this match, that might come back to bite them.  I’m sitting on a future on the Dutch to win it all @ +1200, so while I could hedge off a little bit and take Japan to advance, I’m being stubborn 

Netherlands-Japan over 2, 2.5 -125 (25 units) 
BTTS -110 (16.5 units)
Netherlands first half +142 (10 units) 
Netherlands -110 (22 units) 



 
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Posted: #37
 
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Posted: #38

What seems very off to you in the futures lines? The only thing weird to me is how fast the us rose to plus 100ish but it was a joke France was favored to begin with. France beat the us 3-1 in a game rapinoe and ertz didn’t play. Fanduel initially had it like -180 for a new champion which I thought was absurd considering us and Germany are past winners. Those odds quickly evened out. I have thought Germany the past couple rounds is a nice play at 5-1 given how easy their side of the draw is. It became apparent very early in this that only 3-4 teams can win. 

 
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Posted: #39
ari 

DS - Considering Germany has a 'cakewalk' into the finals per most people, not my view btw, but 5-1 seems like an insanely high price.  They don't need to beat the US, France and England, just need to beat one of them, so, effectively, they have a +500 ml tag on any of those teams in the finals.  That's absurd and way too high.  For the US, I'm surprised it's so low, noting that anyone who will take a future on the US will foam at the mouth seeing + odds, but if the US continues to win their next two and make the finals, their odds to win doesn't have much room to go down especially if they are playing Germany.  Maybe another reason why oddsmakers don't fancy Germany.  If they beat France, the +130 will have to drop to Even money or so on the future line and then if they beat England, probably -150 in the Final, but that price seems very stretched unless they are playing a surprise opponent.  Be interesting to see how things move following the quarterfinals, that might give us a sense if the current future lines are warranted. 


 
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Posted: #40
23-4-19 +143.40 units 

Norway first to score +140 (8 units) 
Norway first half +330 (4 units) 

England has looked the most polished of any team in the Cup.  They haven’t allowed a goal yet, but I could see the argument that they haven’t really played great teams, or at least not great attacking teams.  Surprisingly, and what might not be known, Norway hasn’t allowed a goal in the first half of any Cup games.  They’re a solid, well rounded team, not spectacular, but certainly good enough to frustrate their opposition.  England has yet to be challenged, and when that does come about, things could get interesting.  Playing just the prop and first half nibble for now, but will get more involved at half or with an in game bet if the Norwegians strike first 

Btw, if you don’t see anything odd with England at -180 to advance compared to the US at -160 to advance, you need to dig deeper.  One of them feels off, which one? All we could do is research and analyze and speculate.  Results will tell us eventually 


 
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Posted: #41

Norway got Killed:(

 
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Posted: #42
Norway just outclassed.  England looks real good, best form thus far in the Cup 

USA-France BTTS -125 (25 units)
 
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Posted: #43
24-4-21 +151.40 units 

Future : Netherlands to hoist +1200 (1 unit)

 Not really loving the odds in the first match, so I’ll ride the Dutch future and play some tactical props/totals.  I think both teams score, but I’m not laying -130 to prove that one.  Youth and inexperience leads to pressure, and on this stage, pressure is enormous.  I can see some mistakes being made, and that very well could be a big one 

Penalty kick awarded - Yes +180 (5 units) 
Total corners over 9 -105 (8.40 units) 
Italy-Netherlands over 2, 2.5 -123 (24.6 units) 




 
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Posted: #44

Dead Under :(

 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by archtown:

Dead Under :(

We have more 45min+ to hope, bro !

 

 
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Posted: #46

Patay!!!

 
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Posted: #47
I almost played the over 2.5, but settled on the insurance line of 2, 2.5.  Still some losses, but playing with house money.  And on that note, going to get a little adventurous 

Sweden to score first +210 (4 units) 
Sweden first half +500 (2 units) 
Sweden-Germany over 2.5 +133 (20 units) 
Sweden to advance +240 (5 units) 
 
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Posted: #48

Yikes no way Sweden Wins/: Double Patay But Good Luck!!!

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by archtown:

Yikes no way Sweden Wins/: Double Patay But Good Luck!!!



No way.  You’re right
 
 
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Posted: #50
26-5-24 +177.70 units 

Futures : Netherlands to Hoist +1200 (1 unit)

England to score first +185 (7 units) 
England-USA draw +280 (10 units) 
England to win on Penalties +1200 (1 unit)
USA to win on Penalties +1200 (1 unit) 

England has been hands down the best defense in the Cup and they’ve gotten better, while the US defense has shown kinks in its armor.  The US has scored a goal within the 12th minute of every match thus far and while -210 seems lofty, I can see people playing this number, well, because they’ve scored first and early in every match.  Bettors, especially US faithful ones, love to side with their team’s success and this supports that.  England to score first is risky, but @ +185, you’re getting high reward.  I think it ends 1-1 in regulation and ultimately gets decided in extra time or with penalty kicks.  Obviously rooting for the US, but I’m betting to make money and leaving all emotion on the sidelines 

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