the h*ll with getting new thread up. i just remembered earlier I had this one so went back and dug it out. pardon for the 'bump'. send this out to frineds over the wknd and not much has changed. nailed the atalanta match ystay and Lib so its a nice start for the week. we'll see what this evening brings.
UCL: from the fan/neutral persepctive, been looking forward to tonight for several weeks. the only thing I hate is the fact theyre both starting concurrently.
first the status':
- match in Paris is with an empty stadium, up there in Britain there wont be an empty seat (and probably all pubs within 20 kms of Anfield)
Pool/Atletico - nailed the 1st leg with Simeones boys. a lot of thoughts tossed back n forth with our group here with a lot of weight added as we just went thru this SAME EXACT scenario last year (tho down 0-2 instead). and anyone whom thinks this is going to be a cakewalk for Pool needs to have 2nd thought on that. when Simeone enters a match NOT needing to score he is bloody difficult to beat; and conceding a goal is not going to change anything. he'll be thrilled to take this to extra time, and even PK's if necessary.... especially with Allisons absence????. but this is the type of opponent where Simeones tendencies comes back to haunt him. when Simeone bus-parks, he s different from other coaches in that Atletico doesnt really seek counterattacks, they pack in in back there & play that annoying clutch&grab rugby style he is famous for. and thats where his problems start, ive always felt the best way to beat the Big Boys of europe is to attack them. sitting back and letting them come is suicidal (and Pool is on that list). last year when we went up 2-0 early in the 2nd half Atletico really packed it in back there and absorbed pressure, but give Juventus or any of those big boys time & eventually sooner or later they are going to figure it out. for Pool? i never mix domestics with UCL, foolish is for whomever does. and for me, the past month Pool has been in that 'dead-zone' part of every big clubs schedule annually. its hard to get motivated with a 20+ lead domestically for the title. for me, its still a few days away, and i dont know his status, but Pool needs to have Henderson in there (midfield); especially vs THIS opponent. Salah/Mane/Firmio of course will ge the attention; but Mane/Firm do not react well when they get put on their a**es; and they are going to get roughed up on Wednesday... its Simeones MO on the road. people will compare their comeback vs Barca last year; but Barcas defense is/was nowhere near/similar to the structure Atletico employs. and Barca tried to attack Pool, not counterattack, thats another big "no-no". for me, Im just suprised Pool is below 200 juice; not saying they will advance --- they can actually STILL win and NOT advance --- but given the situation & the fact its in Anfield, and Pool are going to have PLENTY of time to figure things out and crack that wall while Virgil & his buddies heels are parked at the midfield line, its an awful low line. Simeone wont care about winning, or even the draw for that matter. just keep them under 2 and he'll take his chances. but I have to go with initial thoughts/feelings and Pool -1 @-105 and play it safe.
the O/U?? in my opinion its a cr*pshoot. as easily as I can see this ending 1-0 or 2-0, if Pool goes up 2-0 or if Atletico bangs one in at any time during the match, there could be 4 or 5 goals EASILY.
***EDIT*** the 3.5 is nicely priced @+275 one 'brainfart' on either side and strategy gets tossed right out the window. so ill toss some on that. and being honest in that I am not confident as last year with Pools ability to put up a cleansheet.
the h*ll with getting new thread up. i just remembered earlier I had this one so went back and dug it out. pardon for the 'bump'. send this out to frineds over the wknd and not much has changed. nailed the atalanta match ystay and Lib so its a nice start for the week. we'll see what this evening brings.
UCL: from the fan/neutral persepctive, been looking forward to tonight for several weeks. the only thing I hate is the fact theyre both starting concurrently.
first the status':
- match in Paris is with an empty stadium, up there in Britain there wont be an empty seat (and probably all pubs within 20 kms of Anfield)
Pool/Atletico - nailed the 1st leg with Simeones boys. a lot of thoughts tossed back n forth with our group here with a lot of weight added as we just went thru this SAME EXACT scenario last year (tho down 0-2 instead). and anyone whom thinks this is going to be a cakewalk for Pool needs to have 2nd thought on that. when Simeone enters a match NOT needing to score he is bloody difficult to beat; and conceding a goal is not going to change anything. he'll be thrilled to take this to extra time, and even PK's if necessary.... especially with Allisons absence????. but this is the type of opponent where Simeones tendencies comes back to haunt him. when Simeone bus-parks, he s different from other coaches in that Atletico doesnt really seek counterattacks, they pack in in back there & play that annoying clutch&grab rugby style he is famous for. and thats where his problems start, ive always felt the best way to beat the Big Boys of europe is to attack them. sitting back and letting them come is suicidal (and Pool is on that list). last year when we went up 2-0 early in the 2nd half Atletico really packed it in back there and absorbed pressure, but give Juventus or any of those big boys time & eventually sooner or later they are going to figure it out. for Pool? i never mix domestics with UCL, foolish is for whomever does. and for me, the past month Pool has been in that 'dead-zone' part of every big clubs schedule annually. its hard to get motivated with a 20+ lead domestically for the title. for me, its still a few days away, and i dont know his status, but Pool needs to have Henderson in there (midfield); especially vs THIS opponent. Salah/Mane/Firmio of course will ge the attention; but Mane/Firm do not react well when they get put on their a**es; and they are going to get roughed up on Wednesday... its Simeones MO on the road. people will compare their comeback vs Barca last year; but Barcas defense is/was nowhere near/similar to the structure Atletico employs. and Barca tried to attack Pool, not counterattack, thats another big "no-no". for me, Im just suprised Pool is below 200 juice; not saying they will advance --- they can actually STILL win and NOT advance --- but given the situation & the fact its in Anfield, and Pool are going to have PLENTY of time to figure things out and crack that wall while Virgil & his buddies heels are parked at the midfield line, its an awful low line. Simeone wont care about winning, or even the draw for that matter. just keep them under 2 and he'll take his chances. but I have to go with initial thoughts/feelings and Pool -1 @-105 and play it safe.
the O/U?? in my opinion its a cr*pshoot. as easily as I can see this ending 1-0 or 2-0, if Pool goes up 2-0 or if Atletico bangs one in at any time during the match, there could be 4 or 5 goals EASILY.
***EDIT*** the 3.5 is nicely priced @+275 one 'brainfart' on either side and strategy gets tossed right out the window. so ill toss some on that. and being honest in that I am not confident as last year with Pools ability to put up a cleansheet.
PSG/Dortmund - nailed the 1st leg taking Dort & Under. the empty stadium is making me think about doing it again.
COMMENTARY: I still dont understand why they elect to have closed stadiums with the reasoning being to "prevent large gatherings" cause there are 1000's outside the pitches watching anyways, and restos/pubs are packed. Juve/Inter last wknd there were tons of people outside around the stadium.****
went into depth on this last month and wont repeat too much. "PSG will be in trouble once they face a team not afraid to attack them". their biggest problem past 5 years has been playing in a league where the majority of clubs simply cant/afraid to attack them. looks sweet on the stat sheet but come UCL-KO's its been a big problem for them. and that empty stadium might be a factor here, this is a team whom feeds off on emotion (which also xplains why theyve s*cked on the road for many years); so, not having their fans behind them is another disadvantage. however, Dortmund @home is one thing; Dort on road is entirely different. theyve blown chunks from here to kingdom-come on the road in UCL's vs Power 5 clubs. ESPECIALLY in KO's. Barca? 3-1. Inter? 2-0. last year Tott? 3-0. Atletico? 2-0. the only Power 5 opponent theyve even gotten a point against the past 5 years on the road was Monaco. so im not keen on backing them here. but i dont think the 3.5 should be juiced here again... and taking a shot with the under once more. PSG/Dort under 3.5 @-105
PSG/Dortmund - nailed the 1st leg taking Dort & Under. the empty stadium is making me think about doing it again.
COMMENTARY: I still dont understand why they elect to have closed stadiums with the reasoning being to "prevent large gatherings" cause there are 1000's outside the pitches watching anyways, and restos/pubs are packed. Juve/Inter last wknd there were tons of people outside around the stadium.****
went into depth on this last month and wont repeat too much. "PSG will be in trouble once they face a team not afraid to attack them". their biggest problem past 5 years has been playing in a league where the majority of clubs simply cant/afraid to attack them. looks sweet on the stat sheet but come UCL-KO's its been a big problem for them. and that empty stadium might be a factor here, this is a team whom feeds off on emotion (which also xplains why theyve s*cked on the road for many years); so, not having their fans behind them is another disadvantage. however, Dortmund @home is one thing; Dort on road is entirely different. theyve blown chunks from here to kingdom-come on the road in UCL's vs Power 5 clubs. ESPECIALLY in KO's. Barca? 3-1. Inter? 2-0. last year Tott? 3-0. Atletico? 2-0. the only Power 5 opponent theyve even gotten a point against the past 5 years on the road was Monaco. so im not keen on backing them here. but i dont think the 3.5 should be juiced here again... and taking a shot with the under once more. PSG/Dort under 3.5 @-105
i am in ZERO mood to start new thread. so going to put this here.
Conmebol: hit thy standard 2nd half mountaintop-over in bolivia and the venezuelan fade on road last night. hope to keep this going.
River/Binacional - faded the defending champs last week for a nice payout as they kept everyone at home for the title chase domestically. then they blew chunks over the wknd and then watched their sweethearts Boca win the title. this is a bad spot for whomever is playing them. the 4-digit juice with them is spot on as i dont think the Peruvians dont stand a chance in this scenario. River -1.5 @+140 (1st half), over 1.5 @-105.
Penarol -1 @-135, Penarol/Wilstermann over 2.5 @-105 - though not a high as their rivals, 2500+ metres is still "up there" & when bolivian clubs have to come down from that mountaintop bad things tend to happen. WIlstermann vs non-bolivian clubs are 0-2-7 in this thing the past few years; 5 straight have seen 4+ goals.
Flamengo/Barcelona - Brazilians have destroyed Ecuadorian clubs at home (4 times in past few years. but this Barcelona club won 4 straight roadies vs Samba teams a few years ago. prefer to play it safe and take the over. Flamengo/Barcelona over 3 @-109
Sao Paulo/LDU - LDU just blew away a weakened River side 1st round, then beat their countrymen Barcelona (above) over the wknd with a full strength side; now, similar to bolivian teams, have come ddown from that mountaintop they have & that god-awful long flight to Brazil going up against a Samba squad in need of points after blowing chunks the 1st round. prices dropped like a brick past few days buy im not buying it. Sao Paolo -1 @-105
GL to all
i am in ZERO mood to start new thread. so going to put this here.
Conmebol: hit thy standard 2nd half mountaintop-over in bolivia and the venezuelan fade on road last night. hope to keep this going.
River/Binacional - faded the defending champs last week for a nice payout as they kept everyone at home for the title chase domestically. then they blew chunks over the wknd and then watched their sweethearts Boca win the title. this is a bad spot for whomever is playing them. the 4-digit juice with them is spot on as i dont think the Peruvians dont stand a chance in this scenario. River -1.5 @+140 (1st half), over 1.5 @-105.
Penarol -1 @-135, Penarol/Wilstermann over 2.5 @-105 - though not a high as their rivals, 2500+ metres is still "up there" & when bolivian clubs have to come down from that mountaintop bad things tend to happen. WIlstermann vs non-bolivian clubs are 0-2-7 in this thing the past few years; 5 straight have seen 4+ goals.
Flamengo/Barcelona - Brazilians have destroyed Ecuadorian clubs at home (4 times in past few years. but this Barcelona club won 4 straight roadies vs Samba teams a few years ago. prefer to play it safe and take the over. Flamengo/Barcelona over 3 @-109
Sao Paulo/LDU - LDU just blew away a weakened River side 1st round, then beat their countrymen Barcelona (above) over the wknd with a full strength side; now, similar to bolivian teams, have come ddown from that mountaintop they have & that god-awful long flight to Brazil going up against a Samba squad in need of points after blowing chunks the 1st round. prices dropped like a brick past few days buy im not buying it. Sao Paolo -1 @-105
GL to all
gab, sweet mother of god whatd you do that for? I over-shot this by about 6-7 pages. started thinking Covers deleted it. you "bumped" it closer to the front? cazzo.
dont EVER reply in my threads again (laughing/joking)
got to give credit where credit is due.
Just HOW GOOD has this Atalanta TEAM has been this year:
1) broke their club record for pts for the 3rd straight season
2) including CL, well over the 100-mark in goals with SEVENTEEN different players scoring. (cazzo!!)
3) first in UCL history to advance after losing their first 3.
4) ran with Juve & ManCity & blew away Valencia @Mestalla. (that is NOT an easy thing to do fyi) since the restart, they havent even played with their FULL UCL-caliber lineup.
5) and on top of all that, theyve played several of their Serie A matches @San Siro (Milan) (stadium reconstruction). as well as ALL of their UCL home games (UEFA Rules).
so, similar feelings as to what Pool did over there in the EPL this year. nobody is going to remember their accomplishments because of the pandemic.
In any case, back near the end of April when the French Govt decided to cancel all sporting events out there which included Ligue I (which the LFP - their governing body - confirmed shortly afterwards) bunch of us plunked some on Atalanta to win the first leg @home simply on merit.
210 AT HOME vs a PSG squad whom will be off since the pandemic broke out? just felt that line was off to start with; a club being able to play their final 1/4 of a season vs a club off for practically 4 months hardly any competitive matches? (for the record, I would have done the same for Lyon but....... ehhhhhh)
*** EDIT *** as everyone already aware, UEFA announced late in June of the new format as this is now a single elimination match being played on a neutral field in Lisboa with little/none attending.
initially took this with the expectation of it being 2-legged, & Italy for first leg, hence, PSG's "need" to win WOULD HAVE been less and just settle for the away goal. all of that is shot to h*ll now.
keeping this play as the same reasoning stands. it was 200 prior to the PSG match and has gone down a little due to Mbappes injury. Atalanta is in far better 'match fitness' and though I dont necessarily think PSG played "that badly" in their Cup final but their timing on offense was waaay off. just feel Atalanta at this point in the year is in far better form.
but I think I need to re-wire thy melon for these CL's. changing it to a single elimination? but will probably stay away altogether.
gab, sweet mother of god whatd you do that for? I over-shot this by about 6-7 pages. started thinking Covers deleted it. you "bumped" it closer to the front? cazzo.
dont EVER reply in my threads again (laughing/joking)
got to give credit where credit is due.
Just HOW GOOD has this Atalanta TEAM has been this year:
1) broke their club record for pts for the 3rd straight season
2) including CL, well over the 100-mark in goals with SEVENTEEN different players scoring. (cazzo!!)
3) first in UCL history to advance after losing their first 3.
4) ran with Juve & ManCity & blew away Valencia @Mestalla. (that is NOT an easy thing to do fyi) since the restart, they havent even played with their FULL UCL-caliber lineup.
5) and on top of all that, theyve played several of their Serie A matches @San Siro (Milan) (stadium reconstruction). as well as ALL of their UCL home games (UEFA Rules).
so, similar feelings as to what Pool did over there in the EPL this year. nobody is going to remember their accomplishments because of the pandemic.
In any case, back near the end of April when the French Govt decided to cancel all sporting events out there which included Ligue I (which the LFP - their governing body - confirmed shortly afterwards) bunch of us plunked some on Atalanta to win the first leg @home simply on merit.
210 AT HOME vs a PSG squad whom will be off since the pandemic broke out? just felt that line was off to start with; a club being able to play their final 1/4 of a season vs a club off for practically 4 months hardly any competitive matches? (for the record, I would have done the same for Lyon but....... ehhhhhh)
*** EDIT *** as everyone already aware, UEFA announced late in June of the new format as this is now a single elimination match being played on a neutral field in Lisboa with little/none attending.
initially took this with the expectation of it being 2-legged, & Italy for first leg, hence, PSG's "need" to win WOULD HAVE been less and just settle for the away goal. all of that is shot to h*ll now.
keeping this play as the same reasoning stands. it was 200 prior to the PSG match and has gone down a little due to Mbappes injury. Atalanta is in far better 'match fitness' and though I dont necessarily think PSG played "that badly" in their Cup final but their timing on offense was waaay off. just feel Atalanta at this point in the year is in far better form.
but I think I need to re-wire thy melon for these CL's. changing it to a single elimination? but will probably stay away altogether.
Doc, far too early, too many variables to consider. but assuming all things are "equal"
- with the new format change, first thng running through my melon? : prices on Atletico Madrid in the 800s to win the whole thing look tasty. 1) i know its on neutral ground. but its a one-off, single elim format. give Diego 3 days - never mind one month for Leipzig match - to prepare for anyone without any distractions and... ya just have to like their chances. what he did to Pool in 1st leg was a masterpiece. but that was @home. but thats his MO, best defensive strategist in europe.
2) after long layoffs, defenses have a big advantage over offensive minded clubs. it takes much longer to get your offense in sync than your defense. defenders have to worry about positioning. offense has to worry about timing. huge difference. 3) brackets. atletico in the bottom, not suggesting its easier but getting to avoid their buddies Barca & Real is a bonus. familiarity is an underdogs best friend at this stage.
- first half unders for ALL the Qtr-final matches? in a single elim, nobody is going to want to to expose their backline too early. or get caught out of position.
- its hard to gauge the motivation too. from the players perspectives. sometimes I wonder if this will look like those ICC mid-summer friendlies. its right around the same time anyways for godsakes.
but I hate, hate, hate this arrangement. and the general excitement from most of europe is much less than previous years. UEFA should have cancelled it. they already lost a trunkload with the new format; a few extra million is not going to hurt. theyll just raise the club fees in UEFA-fashion to recoup in the coming years (sarcasm)
and what about the summer transfer session? it just opened two days ago.
- so this fall theres Nations League, Euro Qualifier KO round, UCL/UEL, Domestic Cups + league play and who knows what else I missed. with every league practically starting later than normal...... just cram those schedules like sardines again. keeping my stance, UEFA should have ditched this altogether, swallow their losses, and hit that reset button for the sake of their players.
Doc, far too early, too many variables to consider. but assuming all things are "equal"
- with the new format change, first thng running through my melon? : prices on Atletico Madrid in the 800s to win the whole thing look tasty. 1) i know its on neutral ground. but its a one-off, single elim format. give Diego 3 days - never mind one month for Leipzig match - to prepare for anyone without any distractions and... ya just have to like their chances. what he did to Pool in 1st leg was a masterpiece. but that was @home. but thats his MO, best defensive strategist in europe.
2) after long layoffs, defenses have a big advantage over offensive minded clubs. it takes much longer to get your offense in sync than your defense. defenders have to worry about positioning. offense has to worry about timing. huge difference. 3) brackets. atletico in the bottom, not suggesting its easier but getting to avoid their buddies Barca & Real is a bonus. familiarity is an underdogs best friend at this stage.
- first half unders for ALL the Qtr-final matches? in a single elim, nobody is going to want to to expose their backline too early. or get caught out of position.
- its hard to gauge the motivation too. from the players perspectives. sometimes I wonder if this will look like those ICC mid-summer friendlies. its right around the same time anyways for godsakes.
but I hate, hate, hate this arrangement. and the general excitement from most of europe is much less than previous years. UEFA should have cancelled it. they already lost a trunkload with the new format; a few extra million is not going to hurt. theyll just raise the club fees in UEFA-fashion to recoup in the coming years (sarcasm)
and what about the summer transfer session? it just opened two days ago.
- so this fall theres Nations League, Euro Qualifier KO round, UCL/UEL, Domestic Cups + league play and who knows what else I missed. with every league practically starting later than normal...... just cram those schedules like sardines again. keeping my stance, UEFA should have ditched this altogether, swallow their losses, and hit that reset button for the sake of their players.
getting this out of way early, got arm twisted. besides, I get a feeling the circus coming later this week.
UCL: probably the first time ive ever had to doubt 'motivation' with this thing. the fact that there are several teams with key players nursing injuries and they err on the side of caution by keeping on treatment table instead of putting them in there. not jumping into these games too much.
avoiding all stats and historical trends. theyre all meaningless with this format.
and im not playing "favoritisms", those familiar to thy threads know I dont do this anyways. but Serie A clubs were the last of the Power 5 to finish their season. so if youre going to lean heavily on "match fitness" - if thats even considered any advantage - then I guess youd have to start with those 5 clubs (Juve,Inter,Napoli,Roma,Atalanta).
please keep in mind that a few of these matches are 2nd legs, so the away goal rule is still in effect.
Pending: Atalanta to win @+210. put this in quite some time ago. (xplained above) assuming "all things were equal" at that time. im still just going to stick with this play but feel this should at least be given mention.
Atalanta/PSG - tho Mbappes injury obviously is important (at the time im writing this he still ahs yet to be cleared to play) but PSG also has another advantage, their Italians Verratti & Icardi. and especially Icardi, whom is extremely familiar with Gasperinis system after facing them for so many years. this is why I cant stand reading the media soo much, Mbappe grabbing the headinles (rightfully so as its a pretty big problem for PSG) but those whom might be unfamiliar with Serie A need to understand this, tho Atalanta is a really good team and believe me, I love what they have accomplished. but Ilcic has been ruled out for this match. and this is a HUGE BLOW for them. they can get away with that in Serie A, but on the next level? I feel they need him in there. to put this into perspective, he missed a trunkload of matches this year yet still was their 2nd leading scorer; when they turned their season around after City booted then into the Atlantic up @Etihad, a large part of that was him. creating/scoring and opening things up for everyone else. he banged in ALL FOUR of their goals in that 2nd leg over in Mestalla back in March. Im not saying he is better than them, but Ilcic is just as important to what Atalanta wants to do as is CR7 is to Juve, or Mbappe to PSG, or Lionel to Barca. him in there puts them on that next level because Atalanta is a massive headache to defend when he is in there. theyre still good and not backing out of this play; each clubs injury concerns kind of "evens out". besides, I cant stand Flopper anyways.
Leipzing/Madrid - should take them to qualify and avoid the risk of this finishing level but ill take the chance. giving me '+' money with Diego getting 3 weeks to prepare for an inferior opponent? OK, ill bite. Madrid to win @+129
City/Madrid - PASS. I need to defer to some of the real "experts" whom follow the EPL religiously. cause I honestly do NOT HAVE A CLUE of either clubs mindset. I guess you could look at Citys results after the restart and come to some kind of conclusion but jesus.....Pool practically had the title wrapped up before winter break. is Pep even staying? he tends to get "bored" every 4-5 years and moves. and even more clueless with Madrid.
getting this out of way early, got arm twisted. besides, I get a feeling the circus coming later this week.
UCL: probably the first time ive ever had to doubt 'motivation' with this thing. the fact that there are several teams with key players nursing injuries and they err on the side of caution by keeping on treatment table instead of putting them in there. not jumping into these games too much.
avoiding all stats and historical trends. theyre all meaningless with this format.
and im not playing "favoritisms", those familiar to thy threads know I dont do this anyways. but Serie A clubs were the last of the Power 5 to finish their season. so if youre going to lean heavily on "match fitness" - if thats even considered any advantage - then I guess youd have to start with those 5 clubs (Juve,Inter,Napoli,Roma,Atalanta).
please keep in mind that a few of these matches are 2nd legs, so the away goal rule is still in effect.
Pending: Atalanta to win @+210. put this in quite some time ago. (xplained above) assuming "all things were equal" at that time. im still just going to stick with this play but feel this should at least be given mention.
Atalanta/PSG - tho Mbappes injury obviously is important (at the time im writing this he still ahs yet to be cleared to play) but PSG also has another advantage, their Italians Verratti & Icardi. and especially Icardi, whom is extremely familiar with Gasperinis system after facing them for so many years. this is why I cant stand reading the media soo much, Mbappe grabbing the headinles (rightfully so as its a pretty big problem for PSG) but those whom might be unfamiliar with Serie A need to understand this, tho Atalanta is a really good team and believe me, I love what they have accomplished. but Ilcic has been ruled out for this match. and this is a HUGE BLOW for them. they can get away with that in Serie A, but on the next level? I feel they need him in there. to put this into perspective, he missed a trunkload of matches this year yet still was their 2nd leading scorer; when they turned their season around after City booted then into the Atlantic up @Etihad, a large part of that was him. creating/scoring and opening things up for everyone else. he banged in ALL FOUR of their goals in that 2nd leg over in Mestalla back in March. Im not saying he is better than them, but Ilcic is just as important to what Atalanta wants to do as is CR7 is to Juve, or Mbappe to PSG, or Lionel to Barca. him in there puts them on that next level because Atalanta is a massive headache to defend when he is in there. theyre still good and not backing out of this play; each clubs injury concerns kind of "evens out". besides, I cant stand Flopper anyways.
Leipzing/Madrid - should take them to qualify and avoid the risk of this finishing level but ill take the chance. giving me '+' money with Diego getting 3 weeks to prepare for an inferior opponent? OK, ill bite. Madrid to win @+129
City/Madrid - PASS. I need to defer to some of the real "experts" whom follow the EPL religiously. cause I honestly do NOT HAVE A CLUE of either clubs mindset. I guess you could look at Citys results after the restart and come to some kind of conclusion but jesus.....Pool practically had the title wrapped up before winter break. is Pep even staying? he tends to get "bored" every 4-5 years and moves. and even more clueless with Madrid.
ya know, last year during KO's..... 6 clubs didnt win their 1st leg at home. 5 of them advanced (Tott, Ajax(twice), United, Pool). so much for home advantage ehh? and that was with packed stadiums. go figure. but this is Covid-year. no fans. some in neutral venues. hard to cap that.
Barca/Napoli - this isnt one of Barcas best backlines, but as long a Lionel is around? theyll have a chance. DeLaurentis (napolis owner) has been screaming bloody h*ll for about a week now to get this match moved out of Spain. so dont know what will happen there. Insigne possibly missing is a huge blow. I love Mertens, but mentioned this many times already, Mertens/Napoli cannot function when hes the #1 option on offense. when Insigne is out....so does Napolis offense. with Barca having the away goal they dont need to do anything here. If Insigne is out im taking the under, otherwise PASS.
Munich/Chelsea - few people thinking the EPL side has a shot to at least get something out of this. perhaps vs other clubs? maybe. but Munich? (laughing). friend sent this my way and thought id share as its exactly what I was thinking in my melon anyways. ever since Lew came over from Dort back in 14, Munichs MO: "dont give you the chance to think you have a chance" in the UCL, when they have a lead after the first leg and come home Munich tends to come out with their foot on your throat. most clubs protect leads by playing behind the ball, Munich "protects" leads by banging one home early and take the wind out of your boat.
last year they did play sevilla to a scoreless draw after winning the 1st leg in spain. but keep in mind they put up over 20 shots in that game. 0-0 is a little misleading.
my melon thinking this one could get ugly quickly. Chelsea just might stop trying. with Pulisic out - whom is grossly overvalued anyways - makes it even more uphill is Werner eligible to play? prices are cr*p. PASS.
Juve/Lyon - Im as loyal as anyone when it comes to supporting my team; but at the same time keep thy melon screwed on straight. we'll probably get booted via away goal (which, by the way, is the unanimous feeling from our fantasy group). just cannot see us keeping a clean sheet. media quick to reflect that this has been our worst defense in a long time. well....D'OH?.... Giorgio been out the whole season, what did you expect? for those whom think this is a TEAM game and 1 man doesnt make a difference? Juve has just 18 cleansheets in our 51 matches this year. geez, I wonder why? (sarcasm) we might be facing an opponent whom finished tied for 7th in Ligue I and have had just one competitive match in 5+ months, ehhhhhh, anyways, the btts + over 2.5 will most likely be my only play here. we'll go as far as Paulo can carry us, yes... I said Paulo - not Christian. theres a reason he was just named Serie A Player of Year. and Im not going to explain that. and Sarri hinting of pairing Gonzo up front with Christian using Paulo as a sub. uh-oh. note to Sarri: you put your best out there, no matter what. and remember.... our guys dont take their skirts off till they fall behind. well... we are ALREADY behind. Lyons long layoff might turn out to be an advantage. we'll see. have to wait till lineups are announced but hoping Sarri gets his head out of his butt. PASS.
GL to all
ya know, last year during KO's..... 6 clubs didnt win their 1st leg at home. 5 of them advanced (Tott, Ajax(twice), United, Pool). so much for home advantage ehh? and that was with packed stadiums. go figure. but this is Covid-year. no fans. some in neutral venues. hard to cap that.
Barca/Napoli - this isnt one of Barcas best backlines, but as long a Lionel is around? theyll have a chance. DeLaurentis (napolis owner) has been screaming bloody h*ll for about a week now to get this match moved out of Spain. so dont know what will happen there. Insigne possibly missing is a huge blow. I love Mertens, but mentioned this many times already, Mertens/Napoli cannot function when hes the #1 option on offense. when Insigne is out....so does Napolis offense. with Barca having the away goal they dont need to do anything here. If Insigne is out im taking the under, otherwise PASS.
Munich/Chelsea - few people thinking the EPL side has a shot to at least get something out of this. perhaps vs other clubs? maybe. but Munich? (laughing). friend sent this my way and thought id share as its exactly what I was thinking in my melon anyways. ever since Lew came over from Dort back in 14, Munichs MO: "dont give you the chance to think you have a chance" in the UCL, when they have a lead after the first leg and come home Munich tends to come out with their foot on your throat. most clubs protect leads by playing behind the ball, Munich "protects" leads by banging one home early and take the wind out of your boat.
last year they did play sevilla to a scoreless draw after winning the 1st leg in spain. but keep in mind they put up over 20 shots in that game. 0-0 is a little misleading.
my melon thinking this one could get ugly quickly. Chelsea just might stop trying. with Pulisic out - whom is grossly overvalued anyways - makes it even more uphill is Werner eligible to play? prices are cr*p. PASS.
Juve/Lyon - Im as loyal as anyone when it comes to supporting my team; but at the same time keep thy melon screwed on straight. we'll probably get booted via away goal (which, by the way, is the unanimous feeling from our fantasy group). just cannot see us keeping a clean sheet. media quick to reflect that this has been our worst defense in a long time. well....D'OH?.... Giorgio been out the whole season, what did you expect? for those whom think this is a TEAM game and 1 man doesnt make a difference? Juve has just 18 cleansheets in our 51 matches this year. geez, I wonder why? (sarcasm) we might be facing an opponent whom finished tied for 7th in Ligue I and have had just one competitive match in 5+ months, ehhhhhh, anyways, the btts + over 2.5 will most likely be my only play here. we'll go as far as Paulo can carry us, yes... I said Paulo - not Christian. theres a reason he was just named Serie A Player of Year. and Im not going to explain that. and Sarri hinting of pairing Gonzo up front with Christian using Paulo as a sub. uh-oh. note to Sarri: you put your best out there, no matter what. and remember.... our guys dont take their skirts off till they fall behind. well... we are ALREADY behind. Lyons long layoff might turn out to be an advantage. we'll see. have to wait till lineups are announced but hoping Sarri gets his head out of his butt. PASS.
GL to all
IMO both man city and Real Madrid have plenty of motivation. City going for hardware having missed out on EPL and FA cup. Zidane has a stellar record in UCL. I can’t pick a side in this leg but BTTS and over 3 are worth a look.
IMO both man city and Real Madrid have plenty of motivation. City going for hardware having missed out on EPL and FA cup. Zidane has a stellar record in UCL. I can’t pick a side in this leg but BTTS and over 3 are worth a look.
Theres a big difference between "futbol fitness" and "having a healthy squad". Just because a team just recently finished their season doesnt mean they arent fit. (ill use Serie A clubs but this applies everywhere) when you play 3 games in 6-7 days with travel and everything that comes along with that, youre NOT going to be a healthy squad. but toss in a 3-4 day break your FUTBOL fitness will be far far far ahead of any opponent coming off a 1-4 month break. Inter just finished a GRUELING grind of a schedule and completed their season last saturday. and 3-4 days off is PLENTY of time for the players to recharge. and is a routine their bodies are used to. Getafe came in after a 3-4 week layoff, the team was HEALTHY, but their futbol-fitness was nowhere near the level of Inters. Inter fluid in their passing and their defense was far more organized due to the repetition of having to play that grind of a schedule. Getafe? passing, positioning, fouls & unforced mistakes. So just because a team is healthy and has no injuries coming from a long layoff doesnt mean they are in "better shape" than their opponent. and saw that LOT in those UEL games, and is making me think twice for these UCLs. so as mentioned from the beginning, so this has become a cr*pshoot in some ways.
and to be fair, to show that this shouldnt be painted with a broad brush, Sevilla(Spa) ran circles around Roma (same scenario as above yet totally different result) Frankfurt played like a bunch of amateurs last night. so the layoffs affect each differently. wish me good luck trying to figure this out for the UCL's.
Leather, hope all is well with you and family/loved ones. in defense for me, i had this typed on monday, i should have put an "*" or something in as not being 100% certain of the various injury status' a LOT of these clubs are having. Verrati is a new one to me? didnt he play the full 90 in their Cup game? mustve picked up a knock during practice.
by the way..... Veratti? hes got an extremely short fuse. being italian & he gets his share of call ups for our Azzurri, i know him well.
Lego, i guess when i mentioned 'motivation' it was from the clubs perspectives in a sense. but as far as the players being put out there, im sure theres a certain sense of it as your explanation said. and if this was a "normal" year, judging from the 1st leg results, the situation dictates the btts/3 are definitely worth a look at. but I just made a play with City earlier (writeup below) i actually like the btts in the other match. dont ask. (laughing)
Theres a big difference between "futbol fitness" and "having a healthy squad". Just because a team just recently finished their season doesnt mean they arent fit. (ill use Serie A clubs but this applies everywhere) when you play 3 games in 6-7 days with travel and everything that comes along with that, youre NOT going to be a healthy squad. but toss in a 3-4 day break your FUTBOL fitness will be far far far ahead of any opponent coming off a 1-4 month break. Inter just finished a GRUELING grind of a schedule and completed their season last saturday. and 3-4 days off is PLENTY of time for the players to recharge. and is a routine their bodies are used to. Getafe came in after a 3-4 week layoff, the team was HEALTHY, but their futbol-fitness was nowhere near the level of Inters. Inter fluid in their passing and their defense was far more organized due to the repetition of having to play that grind of a schedule. Getafe? passing, positioning, fouls & unforced mistakes. So just because a team is healthy and has no injuries coming from a long layoff doesnt mean they are in "better shape" than their opponent. and saw that LOT in those UEL games, and is making me think twice for these UCLs. so as mentioned from the beginning, so this has become a cr*pshoot in some ways.
and to be fair, to show that this shouldnt be painted with a broad brush, Sevilla(Spa) ran circles around Roma (same scenario as above yet totally different result) Frankfurt played like a bunch of amateurs last night. so the layoffs affect each differently. wish me good luck trying to figure this out for the UCL's.
Leather, hope all is well with you and family/loved ones. in defense for me, i had this typed on monday, i should have put an "*" or something in as not being 100% certain of the various injury status' a LOT of these clubs are having. Verrati is a new one to me? didnt he play the full 90 in their Cup game? mustve picked up a knock during practice.
by the way..... Veratti? hes got an extremely short fuse. being italian & he gets his share of call ups for our Azzurri, i know him well.
Lego, i guess when i mentioned 'motivation' it was from the clubs perspectives in a sense. but as far as the players being put out there, im sure theres a certain sense of it as your explanation said. and if this was a "normal" year, judging from the 1st leg results, the situation dictates the btts/3 are definitely worth a look at. but I just made a play with City earlier (writeup below) i actually like the btts in the other match. dont ask. (laughing)
few injury updates:
- Aguero still out for City, but when you look at Citys replacements.... lets just say there isnt much of a dropoff.
- Dybala will be dressed, perhaps come on as sub but will NOT start.
- Insigne cleared to START for Napoli. as I stated in my writeup above, this now changes everything & backing off the possible 'under' i was suggesting. Barca might have Lionel, but Napoli/Gattuso are not going to sit back and absorb pressure. Insigne in there guarantees this. and Barcas backline has struggled all year long. Napoli has a real legit shot at this.
- Ilcic out for Atalanta, huge blow
- Mbappe for PSG???
- Sergio for Real is suspended. HUGE BLOW. people keep forgetting not only is he solid in the back, but hes also a large part of Reals set-piece situations in the offensive end.
Pending:
Atalanta to win @+210
Atletico to win @+129
adding: going lightly
Juve/Lyon btts + over 2.5 @+130 (small play). i still dont think we're going to keep a cleansheet.
ManC -1 @+102 - buddy up there made a significant play on City (and hes not a City supporter).
1) Sergio (Real) suspended. when someone of his stature in the back is out, what it does to the lineups is everyone shifts over to a position which "naturally" isnt theirs. and this typically spells trouble back there at this stage of the UCL's.
2) in UCLs, games with clubs of = caliber are won in midfield. Citys group are far more talented.
3) as said before I havent seen them play since the restart, but apparently theyve been steamrolling opponents. but then again, Reals record has been = impressive.
4) Silva. ive come to understand thru the years from friends up there that the man has a LOT of respect in that locker room. and the captain is staring down the barrel of possibly playing & wearing that armband his final match in a City uniform. ill be suprised if City slacks off in this one. they dont even need to win to advance, so its a small play. again, midfields win UCLs, and DeBruyne/Fern "should" bring their best for their running mate in the middle.
in a "normal" season, with Sergio being out, with these prices? id probably hammer this just on that fact alone. its still a play but dialing down the risk because again, I honestly dont know what to expect for ALL these CL games.
(tomorrow)
Barca/Napoli - yet another Liga/Serie A matchup. 2 in europa and now this one. as I stated above, its a cr*pshoot to judge the layoff and how each will perform. put a gun to my head and Barcas "tap-tap" ball control system and refusal to take those long range blasts from outside the box, the layoff might hurt them more than Napoli; because their offense is hugely dependent on 'timing'. we'll see.
non-CL, not starting another thread:
Bulgaria:
CSKA Sofia -1 @+130
GL to all
few injury updates:
- Aguero still out for City, but when you look at Citys replacements.... lets just say there isnt much of a dropoff.
- Dybala will be dressed, perhaps come on as sub but will NOT start.
- Insigne cleared to START for Napoli. as I stated in my writeup above, this now changes everything & backing off the possible 'under' i was suggesting. Barca might have Lionel, but Napoli/Gattuso are not going to sit back and absorb pressure. Insigne in there guarantees this. and Barcas backline has struggled all year long. Napoli has a real legit shot at this.
- Ilcic out for Atalanta, huge blow
- Mbappe for PSG???
- Sergio for Real is suspended. HUGE BLOW. people keep forgetting not only is he solid in the back, but hes also a large part of Reals set-piece situations in the offensive end.
Pending:
Atalanta to win @+210
Atletico to win @+129
adding: going lightly
Juve/Lyon btts + over 2.5 @+130 (small play). i still dont think we're going to keep a cleansheet.
ManC -1 @+102 - buddy up there made a significant play on City (and hes not a City supporter).
1) Sergio (Real) suspended. when someone of his stature in the back is out, what it does to the lineups is everyone shifts over to a position which "naturally" isnt theirs. and this typically spells trouble back there at this stage of the UCL's.
2) in UCLs, games with clubs of = caliber are won in midfield. Citys group are far more talented.
3) as said before I havent seen them play since the restart, but apparently theyve been steamrolling opponents. but then again, Reals record has been = impressive.
4) Silva. ive come to understand thru the years from friends up there that the man has a LOT of respect in that locker room. and the captain is staring down the barrel of possibly playing & wearing that armband his final match in a City uniform. ill be suprised if City slacks off in this one. they dont even need to win to advance, so its a small play. again, midfields win UCLs, and DeBruyne/Fern "should" bring their best for their running mate in the middle.
in a "normal" season, with Sergio being out, with these prices? id probably hammer this just on that fact alone. its still a play but dialing down the risk because again, I honestly dont know what to expect for ALL these CL games.
(tomorrow)
Barca/Napoli - yet another Liga/Serie A matchup. 2 in europa and now this one. as I stated above, its a cr*pshoot to judge the layoff and how each will perform. put a gun to my head and Barcas "tap-tap" ball control system and refusal to take those long range blasts from outside the box, the layoff might hurt them more than Napoli; because their offense is hugely dependent on 'timing'. we'll see.
non-CL, not starting another thread:
Bulgaria:
CSKA Sofia -1 @+130
GL to all
Hope you and yours are well and that we get an inoculation for this covid (Not a bullshit vaccine like we have for the flu that is does squat 70% of the time). The drug companies need to step up and cure this instead of thinking how they can make money over the long run...
Hope you and yours are well and that we get an inoculation for this covid (Not a bullshit vaccine like we have for the flu that is does squat 70% of the time). The drug companies need to step up and cure this instead of thinking how they can make money over the long run...
Doc as always, tks for stopping by and hope all is well with you. regarding Ramos, weren't those two defensive mistakes on the same side of pitch where he'd normally suit up on? but as mentioned, when players have to move from the normal positions, in the UCL, it just spells trouble.
Barney, (off-topic) dont matter where theyre from/are, hope your family is safe & well. thats more important than anything. so much can be said of Covid and the experiences which have endured.lot of emotions, and could probably talk all night on that topic alone. but was curious how theyre coping down in Conmebol. population wise youre only half of what europe/n america has I think, but theyre all tightly packed in smaller areas so thats got to be tough. vaccine would help, but yeah... as you mentioned, theres a dark side to that. "shutdown" is a GOOD thing you know, its the length of it which is a problematic (laughing) i think i hit my limit with "projects". back to futbol. and tks for stopping by.
ehhh, anyways, hey fellas....am I psychic or what? ".....we'll probably get booted via away goal (which, by the way, is the unanimous feeling from our fantasy group). just cannot see us keeping a clean sheet." not bragging by any stretch. gone was the normal excitement & loud cheers from us watching. even when Christian gave us the lead. it felt different. our lack of urgency on the pitch - along with about 15 other things, Gonzo looking lost out there all night long - well, glad thats over with. sure didnt take them long to sack Sarri either; he had to have known that was coming. City & Madrid played sloppy at times as well. not what Im used to seeing from 3 of the "big boys" in europe, thats for sure. glad this season is over with & close this chapter. Juve is hiring, anyone interested?
futbol needs its fans back Doc. not just Juves. i miss seeing a Brit with neck veins bulging, screaming at the ref "ya bloddy wanka!!!" (which is usually accompanied with an extended finger) or those fans in Dortmund jumping up and down 2 freaking hours straight. the Irish singing no matter what the scoreboard says. Serbs and their flares, ohhh sweet mother of god those Serbs and flares. thought id never say this but I actually kind of miss the Ultras too (in a messed up way). the flavor of the sport is gone. its become vaniglia.
havent seen much outside of Serie A, since the league practically been playing nonstop for a month. and tonight?.............an empty Camp Nou? that takes the cake. it's going to feel WEIRD.
Juve/Lyon btts + over 2.5 @+130 (W)
ManC -1 @+102 (P)
CSKA Sofia -1 @+130 (L)
back in a bit with tonights matches and rest of wknd too before heading out.
Doc as always, tks for stopping by and hope all is well with you. regarding Ramos, weren't those two defensive mistakes on the same side of pitch where he'd normally suit up on? but as mentioned, when players have to move from the normal positions, in the UCL, it just spells trouble.
Barney, (off-topic) dont matter where theyre from/are, hope your family is safe & well. thats more important than anything. so much can be said of Covid and the experiences which have endured.lot of emotions, and could probably talk all night on that topic alone. but was curious how theyre coping down in Conmebol. population wise youre only half of what europe/n america has I think, but theyre all tightly packed in smaller areas so thats got to be tough. vaccine would help, but yeah... as you mentioned, theres a dark side to that. "shutdown" is a GOOD thing you know, its the length of it which is a problematic (laughing) i think i hit my limit with "projects". back to futbol. and tks for stopping by.
ehhh, anyways, hey fellas....am I psychic or what? ".....we'll probably get booted via away goal (which, by the way, is the unanimous feeling from our fantasy group). just cannot see us keeping a clean sheet." not bragging by any stretch. gone was the normal excitement & loud cheers from us watching. even when Christian gave us the lead. it felt different. our lack of urgency on the pitch - along with about 15 other things, Gonzo looking lost out there all night long - well, glad thats over with. sure didnt take them long to sack Sarri either; he had to have known that was coming. City & Madrid played sloppy at times as well. not what Im used to seeing from 3 of the "big boys" in europe, thats for sure. glad this season is over with & close this chapter. Juve is hiring, anyone interested?
futbol needs its fans back Doc. not just Juves. i miss seeing a Brit with neck veins bulging, screaming at the ref "ya bloddy wanka!!!" (which is usually accompanied with an extended finger) or those fans in Dortmund jumping up and down 2 freaking hours straight. the Irish singing no matter what the scoreboard says. Serbs and their flares, ohhh sweet mother of god those Serbs and flares. thought id never say this but I actually kind of miss the Ultras too (in a messed up way). the flavor of the sport is gone. its become vaniglia.
havent seen much outside of Serie A, since the league practically been playing nonstop for a month. and tonight?.............an empty Camp Nou? that takes the cake. it's going to feel WEIRD.
Juve/Lyon btts + over 2.5 @+130 (W)
ManC -1 @+102 (P)
CSKA Sofia -1 @+130 (L)
back in a bit with tonights matches and rest of wknd too before heading out.
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