2020 UCL KO Rounds.....

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specimen24 · Answer

back in a min.

specimen24 · Answer

european comps are not where one should go crazy on. i just enjoy the competition & hopefully stay above water in the process.

as per my custom, from last years thread, lets get this started off "PROPERLY":

Ol.iver.iz.a.tion(noun) -

Synonyms: brainfart hosed scr*wed incomprehensible baffling

this is a fairly new word added to the English vocabulary which has its origins tracing back to the British Commonwealth. Created precisely at 9:38pm (GMT+2) on April 11th, 2018. (yes, I SADLY have this memorized....pile it on fellas) This word can best be described as the state -- or religion -- where the human brain is unable to disseminate the information sent to it from its eyes. And if used properly, this can elicit a violent fluctuation of emotions to anyone nearby (or in front of a television screen for that matter)

Though it was initially believed to be only native to Britain and its surrounding territories, scientists have since discovered this is actually being practiced in many other countries as well. and is now threatened of being replaced/extinction by VAR.

(swearing softly in Italian) as those familiar with my threads; i have something seriously stuck up my posterior with this guy. those idiots in UEFA offices sent him inside OUR borders?

someone please send me the ignition keys for that bus. its time for a road trip. thank you.

Mr Armpits, his musical instrument, and pretty little colorful cards - invades San Siro tomorrow night.

(Wednesday)

Atalanta/Valencia over 4.5 cards @-140 - dont care about the juice. dont laugh, it been thy most profitable CL play 2 years running. theres been 5+ cards in 13 of the 17 UEL/UCL matches this little piece of .....(never mind) has been involved in. (which includes 5 sending offs). 4-0 already this year.

specimen24 · Answer

last year, 7 of the 8 opening 1st leg matches were scoreless at the half, and I see that trend continuing this year as 1st legs always seem to start off tentative.

Dortmund/PSG - dont like mixing domestics with the UCL, its a fatal mistake when capping. current form means SQUAT because of the motivation issue. Dort at home during Bunde is one thing..... Dort at home in the UCL has been a different story. since '17 they have shown tendency to dial down their 'kitchen sink forward' style as 8 of their last 10 home matches have seen 3 goals or less. but good lord, Flopper (by the way, hes out for this one) & Friends have been the polar opposite as 9 of their 12 roadies have seen 4+; and theyve actually been able to find back of net in 17 of their past 18 roadies in this thing. and Favre (Dort) uses a formation with just 3 in the back, relying on the offside trap which is suicidal vs PSG as Mbappe with his speed, destroys traps. but with Veratti in there, PSG will ALWAYS be just one hard tackle from being a man down. to say the Italian has a "short-fuse" is a serious understatement. but my melon is getting in the way, because i just cant get past this, I fall back on experience: "juice on a O3.5 in the first leg?? 1st legs tend not 'over-ish' types. especially when its the ROAD team which is stronger??" and to make myself feel better - cause this has the makings of blowing up in my face in a bad way - i checked, the under is 49-21 in 1st legs the past 5 years. this line OPENED in the 200s everywhere, so i guess im not the only one thinking this way. Dort/PSG under 3.5 @-120 and toss me some of those sweet prices on Dort pick @+120 - PSG has won jsut twice to teams from the Power 5 leagues on the road in 4+ years. (2W-4D-9L). and both were from the EPL, United + Chels.

Atletic/Pool - as a neutral....one simply cannot ask for a better matchup to open the KO's with. behemoth-killer vs the behemoth. if the opponent wasnt Pool this would be an auto-play. Simeone, Simeone, Simeone, you just know whats coming when facing him. and as much as I think Pool is about to cement their status of being placed into that discussion of one of the very best club teams of all time; my melon cant go against Diego; not at home. since he arrived last decade, Atletico Madrid have lost just twice in the 33 CL's theyve hosted (and on that list includes practically every "big-boy" in europe; and a buddy just sent this my way the other day: "Atletico Madrid @home under Simeone, has trailed just ONCE at the half in those 33 matches since beginning of last decade" 18-4-1.

the only time theyve been trailing was that match vs Qarabag. and if theres a knock on Pool its that theyve been "average" on the road the past few years once KO's roll around; Pool has had a halftime lead in just 7 of their 18 matches on the road. & I just get this feeling whatever Klopp brings, Diego will have an answer for. again, this is just the 1st leg. the reality of the situation is Pool doesnt need to win this one, just get that away goal and clobber them at Anfield. so im assuming Klopp will gladly keep the midfield mucked up and play rugby-style if necessary. unlike PSG, he has a bunch of players whom arent afraid to get their shorts dirty.

- an another stat which is silly-crazy, is the amount of scoreless 1st halves in Atleticos home matches, . 300+ juice on the HT under 1.5's is nuts. so is the juiced HT draw option.

so ill take a shot with the Under 1/2 @+150 for 1st half. Atletico pick @+130 (halftime) and tossing a little on the draw + under 2.5 @+250 for the match.

this is just one of those rare scenarios where I feel Pool getting the away goal is golden, even if losing (or better than actually winning so to speak). again, going lightly as both can easily blow up in face but its where i find the value in.

we'll see how it unfolds.

GL to all

mr_bollox · Answer

love the write-ups, GL my man

specimen24 · Answer

Boll   thanks fer stopping by. most of the time i just go with initial feelings &amp; let the chips fall where they may. .  european comps are NOT easy. you already know this.  can make one look pretty stupid at times.      we&#x27;ll see how it goes.

benhogan76 · Answer

Spec win big today buds

alex0 · Answer

Spec your plays made me to cancel my parlay ticket where i had over 2.5 dortmund :) i figured out you tell truth, CL from experience is always different and its very hard to predict it.. Good luck mate!

yorosan · Answer

Great job my friend&#xA;just realize there is another aussie team on the road, let&#x2019;s see

specimen24 · Answer

Ben

as always. hope all is well.

by the way, bus broke down. what the h*ll you do to it??

Alex

, my intentions are never to see anyone buy out of their initial plays. im not a 100% capper. and not immune to chunk-blowing sessions. europe comps is tough. the only thing ya DONT have to worry about is motivation. after that? good lord, its a constant genius/moron struggle. anyone whom says differently is full of it

yoro

got that one sir. but enough of Asia, its waaay too early in the season to be messing around with those. fun nonetheless and didnt kill the bottom line.

decent evening, fortunate.

Dort/PSG under 3.5 @-120,Dort pick @+120 (W, W)

Atletic/Pool under 1/2 @+150 for 1st half; Atletico pick @+130 (L,W)

draw + under 2.5 @+250 (L)

quick thoughts:

Diego, Diego, Diego.

that was a thing of beauty (as long as you're not playing them.

) . ZERO shots on target?

reminds me of a team I once USED to know (a sarcastic shot at my own Juve). Pool "officially" has their first problem of the season. the one thing which took me by suprise is how flustered Pool got. that was uncharacteristic of them. Atleticos chippy-ness is annoying as (bleep) to play against. something I know ALL ABOUT. for those of you whom think Pool is going to simply steamroll them @Anfield, ya better have a second thought on that. but Klopp & boys will get it figured out though and advance.

PSG looks great until they face someone whom has the testicles to attack them & retain posession. that away goal means the 2nd leg blows over the total. far too many chances for both last night and they didnt even get going till the hour mark.

looking ahead, I couldnt have asked for better results for Sandwiches.

Doc, WCI, DTP, And.... i think last sundays 'discussion' has now been answered. Pool is not going to give a cr*p about that trip to Etihad. they looked annoyed walking off that field last night. i mean, 0-1 is not a bad result, but Atletico got under their skin. and if you look at the other 3 teams, specifically whom/where they are playing. that phrase "planetary alignments' regarding the scheduling comes to mind. we'll see.

on to tonight

specimen24 · Answer

UCL: had lonng discussion yesterday while watching matches. just plunked some on this earlier this AM:

Valencia to qualify/advance @+135

(muttering to self) cazzo!!!...."devo vedere questa faccia di uomo 50+ volte stasera???"

pending: Atalanta/Valencia over 4.5 cards @-140

Atalanta/Valencia - San Siro will be packed to the sky tonight. Bergamo side "one-upped" Tottenham from last year becoming the first team to ever advance after losing their first 3 matches; they actually had a -9 goal differential before turning it all around. everyone will look at their domestic form, theyre on pace to destroy the single season Serie A total goals record. but this is the UCL, and UCL's are different animals. all 3 of their CL home games stayed under the 3.5 number as Gasperini has proven to be reluctant to play that "toss kitchen sink forward" style he uses in Serie A. but heres a good indication of HC Gasperini tendencies; vs the big boys of Serie A this year hes really tightened it up in the midfield. and though I support Serie A clubs for the most part... this is not a UCL-caliber defense. they blew a 2nd half 3-goal lead vs Lazio; then again vs Juventus conceding 3 in final 15 mins. Valencia were in this thing last year, gave my Juventus H*LL losing 0-1 in Turin and held United to a draw up in Trafford. this year have alreay beaten Chelsea and a shocker up in Amsterdam eliminating Ajax as well. but they have a major problem with a bunch on the treatment table whom will miss this one. tho I think the prices are waaay off, I dont like backing road teams, and especially in 1st legs when theres ZERO need to go for a win. Valencia will park that bus big-time in the 2nd half regardless what the score is. these guys have played 6 roadies in this thing since last year vs some pretty stiff competition..... a total of 7 goals in those 6 matches. they know how to park a bus. but theyre going to get their chances vs this backline. err on the side of caution because Gasperini using 3-4-1-2 formation in the back. and Muriel + Zapata BOTH on bench to start; so taking the btts + over 2.5 @+105

Tottenham/Leipzig - dont know what to make of this one; Son's absence is worrisome. and toss out whatever stats i had on Tottenham (i think) because Mou is around nowadays. Tott might not be playing at the level theyre used to, but theyre still on a 7 match unbeaten run, and Mou lives for these moments, he'll come up with something. that backline scares me tho, didnt keep anyone out of the net during Groups; and recent league matches somewhat similar tho I care less about that. however, they DID cleansheet City; and held Pool to a single goal. go figure. for Leipzig, i dont like them in this spot, its nasty. again, this is the 1st leg, winning isnt a priority; just get that coveted away goal.and theyve played 4 consecutive roadies vs 4 clubs still in Europe comps and havent won any. so im sticking to my initial thoughts. Tottenham pick @+102

not the smartest of plays. 8 out of the last 10 1st legs have now been scoreless at the half. the way I see it, if Dort-PSG are capable, then anybody else can too. but buddy up there convinced me; im taking a shot at this, h*ll, theres been THREE goals scored-----before the whistle..

...... in all but one of Totts CL matches this year. (Boll, what the.....???

) so im taking a shot for fun., that seed already planted in my melon

. over 1.5 @+170, over 2.5 @+550

GL to all

moemoney · Answer

Some gutsy wagers there Spec. Best of luck to ya!

DestroyThePitch · Answer

When I said that Pool would lose interest after they clinched the league, I didn&#x2019;t mean in European completion lol I simply meant league games. They clearly and obviously want to repeat as champions.  That won&#x2019;t go away no matter when they clinch. As for them steamrolling at Anfield... Lots of ppl bet Barca last year in the 2nd leg and we saw how that turned out There are a lot of similarities to be drawn out of that round with Barca and this round with Atletico. The one glaring thing that&#x2019;s different.. they&#x2019;re only down 1-0 this time around.  Props to Diego for holding us to zero shots on target.  But it was a mistake to not push for the second goal. One that will cost him making it through this stage.

moemoney · Answer

&#xA;Did you think they would actually would have had a chance to get that second goal? Pool seemed to have been suffocating them past the quarter mark but Atletico seemed to have played a masterful defensive game. They really probably had no shot to get that 2nd goal. Regardless I think I&#x27;ll be looking forward to the 2nd leg of this game and see how Anfield turns up for that game. Super early lean on Pool - whatever to advance.

specimen24 · Answer

Moe

, those prices on Pool i dont think are out yet. but theyre going to be cr*p. books cant expose themselves putting low number out on them. besides, doesnt matter what # they use, ppl still going to hammer Pool no matter what.

DTP

, we were down 0-2 to those guys last year. so 0-1 isnt bad. but geez when Diego can START a match in bus-park mode they are one h*ll of a bloody tough nut to crack. i forsee a hard fought advancing for your guys. and i agree with you now, seeing their body language after they walked off the pitch last night sure did answer a lot of questions I had. gotta cut this short. gotta run. thanks both fer stopping in

DestroyThePitch · Answer

Moe  no I didn&#x2019;t they had a shot at that second goal. And that&#x2019;s kind of my point. They didn&#x2019;t even try. It&#x2019;s a mistake. I respect what Simeone wants to do and his strategy but it&#x2019;s gonna fail again. Spec  we shall see my friend lol we shall see.  Simeone is gonna have them sit back and counter and I think they get handled by Pool @Anfield.

specimen24 · Answer

Moe,

in hindsight. feel free to replace "gutsy" with "stupid" if desire. i knew Son was out, Kanes injury, Eriksen no longer there. so perhaps it should have been a 'no play'. but Tott was still at home, and it was a 'pick' with '+' money so it wasnt going to kill the bottom line. but Tott looked out of sorts and that was a nice gameplan by Nagels. so the German side got the deserved advantage.

when we took Valencia to advance was thinking 2-1, 3-1 final; with 4-1 a wee-bit of work to do in that 2nd leg. and this is going to be close; Mestalla is not an easy place to play in. Atalantas defense is not UCL caliber, and it showed; far too many turnovers in their own end and they're lucky that wasnt a 4-3 scoreline. when ur up 4-1 you SIT on the ball, the amount of chances Valencia had in those last 15 minutes is a good "tell" on whats coming in that 2nd leg. dare I even say this so soon but 1st half 2nd leg is practically an 'auto-over'. this is one Serie A side whom simply does not know how to park a bus.

DTP

..... thats what i was trying to say before - about Simeone coming into a 2nd leg with an advantage."They didn’t even try. It’s a mistake....." i agree. Simeone obviously has a lot of confidence..... and a BIG SET OF CAJONES.... going up to Anfield thinking to hold them to a single goal. he is predictable as the sun, he doesnt even TRY to counter. again, I think Pool advances. but its not going to be easy, nor pretty. h*ll.... who cares about being "pretty" this time of year

Atalanta/Valencia over 4.5 cards @-140 (L)

Atalanta/Valencia btts + over 2.5 @+105 (W)

Tottenham pick @+102, (L)

over 1.5 @+170, over 2.5 @+550 (L),L

next week will be interesting to say the least. not sure why Bayern juiced on the road. ill figure that out after the wknd.

specimen24 · Answer

pankey

saw ur message. i give up ystday getting new thread.

its too much of an adventure. decided to come in and "bump" this one. was planning to just forget about it.

had to go pretty far back there to dig it out.

just copied what sent out to buddies last wknd. pardon for not editing.

******and for those looking ahead: Inters UEL match this Thurs will be in front of an empty stadium*****

(cork popping.

) hoping the soccer gods are kind this week.

UCL: (just my own personal opinion) this group of teams this week have rosters littered with a mass of players of which one can say are "in the twilight of their careers" and have been through many wars. and that window is/almost shut for a lot of them. and aside from Juve, a lot of these players/teams were a LARGE part of my capping the past decade. because theyve all for the most part have pretty much stayed put with one club. so i give a lot of respect for that no matter whom. the changing of the guard has come Lew/Neuer over there in Munich, Gigi/Bonucci/Giorgio for us, Lionel/Busquets/Pique with Barca, Benz/Ramos/Modric/Marcelo for Real, DeBruyne/Silva/Aguero (DeBruy is still young but it feels like hes been with City FOREVER). you just get the feeling its all about the UCL title for this set of teams... like the other clubs this week, there really isnt anything else left to accomplish in their careers. at least form the club perspective. anyways, enuff babble.

all 4 ROAD teams go off in the 'favs' role?

this makes 7 out of the 8 this round. cant remember when the last time I ever saw that. ehhh... and there arent any 'Captain Obvious' plays like Simeone and under at home to fall back on this time around.

4 match over 1.5 @+156 - unlike last week, far far far too much firepower up front out there these 4 games. tho dont see all 4 matches blowing over the 2.5's but this is a nice price. and lets double up on it.

Chelsea/Munich - my melon all messed up for this one; when two thought processes collide. experience taught me to not fade EPL teams @home in KO's, its not healthy for the bottom line. I just dont like doing it; and a process im still trying to get thru my THICK SKULL. "an EPL team in the 300s @home in the KO's?" thats almost an auto-play for me; and kind of shows the respect have for the EPL. but also, this is the 1st leg. and theres been a change in futbol Id say towards the middle of last decade-for a lot of various reasons a) coaches b) systems c) offensive skill levels to where the the "modus operandi" for any road team in this scenario is to 1) get the away goal. if the 'w' comes attached with that then so be it. a cleansheet would be nice too, but that's more & more becoming a thing of the past. and its this reason why I cringe at road favs in this spot. and a part of me thinks this line is inflated becaues people remember Munich kicking Totts butts into the Atlantic a few months ago up there. giving me "+" money on the half with an EPL side @home? cazzo!

but at same time, experience has taught me - the HARD way might I add - "dont (bleeping) fade Munich on road in this thing during KO's". this core group within Bayern have been very, very, very, very good several years running in "roadie" spots. they are 5W-3D-1L the past 4 years during KO in this thing. (a list which includes behemoths Pool, Juve, Real, Arse). extremely impressive. their only loss in the KOs was to Simeones Atletico 0-1..... (laughing)..... naturally. and Munich has been cleansheeted just twice in their past 17 roadies overall in the UCL (PSG/Pool). i dont care WHO you are, thats pretty darn good and equally as impressive when you take into consideration the importance of away goals.

for me? too much of a headache, already put this in just to prevent me from changing my mind btts + over 2.5 @-108

specimen24 · Answer

warning: theres a risk of this being played in an empty stadium due to the virus outbreak. decision will be made tomorrow.

Napoli/Barca - have seen Barca several times this year, including their win over in San Siro vs Inter. their road struggles used to be their achilles heel, but no longer the case. Barca comes in with a long injury list, but its Robertos absence is going to hurt them. and a new coach too, with a system the team doesnt seem to be settled into. for Napoli theres no need for research; personally, dont think they should be in the 200s @home; theyve only lost once in over 2 years (ManC) in front of their fans: Pool (twice), PSG; tho Arsenal did beat them last year in UEL KO's. and these guys have beaten ALL top 3 in Serie A the past month. Napoli have been upside down all year long, but one thing you simply cannot overlook is the fact that theyve "shown up" when motivated, and Barca = sky-high motivation. but one thing, Koub is now confirmed out, to me, this is important; you can get away with this in Serie A. but in europe, vs a team like Barca, and especially Barcas style. and I know whats coming..... Gattuso is a stubborn, "old-school" loyalist. and likes to give up space and accepts those fouls outside the box. but you simply cannot give Lionel time to turn and move forward, he/Barca destroy those kinds of defenses. im concerend of looking at this from just one end of the pitch as Barcas defense kinda "leaky" this year too. but you cannot give Lionel 5+ chances from 30 metres out on set pieces; its suicidal. the little fella is going to figure one out. im smelling a big-time draw here. this line moving the wrong way i think. but i need to wait. playing in front of an empty stadium is eery.

****EDIT: never mind****

for those of you whom are the superstitious types, Barca has had some pretty bad luck visiting Pasta-land the past decade. their 2-1 vs Inter back in december was their 1st win in Italy in their last 10 trips. gotta go with the draw here. i dont like backing road teams in these spots where the main priority isnt winning. there has to be a huge difference in class for me to take that option, and I just dont see it here. we'll see how it goes. Napoli/Barca draw @+250

GL to all

jkatakoon · Answer

GL, spec! Hoping for a 2-2 draw in Napoli/Barca so we both hit.

moemoney · Answer

BOL Today Spec...&#xA;Is it me or do the odds for Juve to win -110 look insanely off? I would have imagined it be a wee bit higher than that but what do I know...

specimen24 · Answer

jkat     got to agree with you there.  the strange thing with that Nap/Bar match is that both playing their first CL game under new coach.  Gattuso going/sticking with 4-3-3 formation.    you can get away with that vs Juve. but im not entirely convinced if thats the smartest thing to be doing with Lionel out there.  Barca might d*mn well push for that second goal. we&#x27;ll see.

specimen24 · Answer

moe, under Allegri? id say thats about right.  but with Sarrri?  il put up thoughts tmrw. but for the record, this year,(dont laugh) im more concerned if we score FIRST.  Juve doesnt start playing till they fall behind.   its annoying as (bleep) im late.  gotta run. GL with ur plays

benhogan76 · Answer

Spec nice job on draw.

drewskie · Answer

Madrid to win and lyon to win or draw? Line movement is crazy for the Madrid game.

specimen24 · Answer

Ben

tks. appreciate it and hope all has been well with you.

drew

that comment sounds about right.

thoughts from last night:

Napoli match went as expected; Gattuso might have announced/started with a 4-3-3 but within 10 mins the fell back into some kind of 5-4-1 formation back there. if get Koub back for 2nd match this is going to get interesting. but with the away goal means theyll need to find back of net in Camp Nou so its going to be uphill.

dont usually blame coaches as its the players out there; but trying to figureout what Lampard was attempting to do. not sure what exactly what his strategy was. tho i believe in "going with what got ya there" but at the same time, you better freaking understand what your opponents strengths are. that was a real thumping, not so much the final result but when the visiting team takes the lead in the first leg AND then continues to dominate posession? thats not good. even with a comfy cushion, i wouldnt dare fade Munich 2nd leg because of that. a fairly dominant display.

4 match over 1.5 @+156 (pending. 2 down, 2 to go)

Chelsea/Munich btts + over 2.5 @-108 (L)

Napoli/Barca draw @+250 (W)

2020 UCL KO Rounds.....

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