Howdy Spec! I was on atletico too. I really should've checked the starting lineups before placing my wager though lol. When I saw morata and felix on the bench i could only shake my head. oh well. I'm on bayern today as well. To put it simply theyre too fast for an aging barca. barca rely on messi far too much.
Boll 
, as always. yeah I know. ill get that up in a bit. i actually had to go back and edit it from italian as some phrases i just didnt know the english version. but I warn you, its kinda long. even by my standards. think of my season opening futures writeups. might want to go refill that coffee cup before you start.
ohh and by the way.... theres another example of *** Costa. not sure if you saw that but when Morata got off the bench to go grab his shirt - this is how my messed up melon operates Boll - fist of all, ya just obviously knew he was going in for Diego and you just KNEW Diego saw that. my brain immediately thinks "uh oh, yellow coming". and sure enough, Mr Congeniality lets one fly on that defender, out comes the pwetty colorful cards. and you wonder why my blood pressure goes up at the mere mention of his name.
General , yes, agree with everything you mentioned. but as you specified too, I didnt want to critique too much on Atletico as it would detract from what Leip did. and they played a very well organized/planned out match and dseserved the 'w'.
Lego , agreed. starting lineups. but along with Atalanta I put those plays in quite a while ago. and to be honest, wouldnt have changed my mind anyways.
on to tonight.
UCL: on a little bit of a 'losing' streak in UCL missing the past 2, Serie B been bailing me out.
Pending
Munich to win @+110
ManC/Lyon over 3.5 @+150 (writeup above)
adding: wont even bother capping the semis which will amount to coin-flipping because of the single elim format. this wknd will be the last for me, so tossed some on this for the h*ll of it, the amount risked would be the same as if I was playing each individually. enjoy the matches and end this crazy season.
Munich/Barca + City/Lyon + Leip/PSG over 2.5 @+346
Munich/Barca - geez, had I known before putting this up yesterday that everyone else would be on it I would have changed my play (just joking).
Seriously tho, jumped on this the second it came out. not a large play and nothing "major" with the risk. As always, when "big-boy" clubs meet the VERY FIRST thing I almost always look at is the midfield matchups. and tho individually they might not be as talented as previous years, but as a unit? this is probably one of the best Munich has had in quite some time. I dont care whom the opponent is, you simply cannot win the posession battle on the road by 65+% in practically every bloody road game this year - which is what they did. turned to a friend and "you know, im going to say something I probably havent said in years.....Barca going to lose the possession battle on friday even if the match ends 0-0". so theres my starting point and how thy melon functions. and from that point onwards to other things, everything goes downhill from there for Barca. of course Barca has Lionel, and have said many times already, in single elims all it takes is 10 seconds of brilliance and they can take the lead or pull level and scratch it out till xtra time. but i just couldnt get past that 65% stat. giving me '+' money for that stat? hence the play on Munich. and Munich are one of those clubs whom absolutely punish opponents mistakes in the middle of the pitch, Barca going to have to play clean back there, and I havent seen THIS version of them do that all year long.
GL to all 
Spec GL today man. I too lean Munich for much of the reasons you stated above. Seeing everyone and their mother onthis play scares me a bit. Most likely will just be watching the Messi thread and rooting against his bet LOL
Anyways, me and Bollox are waiting for that Pirlo post. Anticipation is killing us 
Specimen, thank you for the continuously awesome write ups and plays. Always look forward to reading what you have to say. That over 3.5 MC/Lyon pick was epic...I sprinkled a bit on Lyon money line as well and had myself a great afternoon. Thanks for the plays, and best of luck going forward!
And, Cody, Fist tks for stopping by guys. appreciate it.
Munich to win @+110 (W)
ManC/Lyon over 3.5 @+150 (W)
Munich/Barca (w) + City/Lyon (w) + Leip/PSG over 2.5 @+346 (pending)
kind of strange to see that final score and think back that the match was actually level at one point. in the other, Lyon keep finding ways, and now 4 digit prices on opening lines? might have to dig back a ways to find when that last happened.
Leip/PSG - dont really need to do anything here as basically lumped 3 regular plays into that parlay, so hoping these two can get 3 tonight. kind of glad I took this already cause the melon getting in the way. cause this one is starting to make me have thoughts which is never a good thing (laughing); friend dropped this on my lap last night.
forget their opponents, but has anyone else noticed that PSG has conceded the FEWEST goals of anyone in the UCL this year? (5)
and they cleansheeted Lyon (twice); something Juve, City, Leipzig couldnt. and Leipzig cleansheeted Tott (TWICE) plus even more telling is the fact they held Munich to a single goal in their two H2H meetings; so theyve shown the ability to defend. and I just cannot see Leipzig high pressing PSG, thats suicidal with Mbappe up front. interesting matchup, because of Covid I kind of just toss all stats out the window but have to admit that Leip couldnt beat Lyon during both their Group Stage meetings while PSG blew them away 3 times when Mbappe was in the lineup. I love Leips style, and they DESERVED that 'w' vs Atletico tho that own-goal deflection been getting some press-time. but they deserved to advance. at the same time, felt PSG played really bad vs Atalanta, especially Flopper, as much as I dislike him ya have to admit he is not going to scr*w up THAT much again. and a couple of very important missings will return for PSG.
and with Mbappe back in there, suddenly PSGs vertical game exists and their offense opens up for everyone. took a small play on PSG @-120 but lets see if both can squeeze 3 out of this one.
GL to all
jdukes, tks dont do parlays much but that was one of those 'stress-free' ones. usually the last one ends up going down to the end for me. tks for stopping by and hope all is well. 
PSG to win @-120 (W)
Munich/Barca (w) + City/Lyon (w) + Leip/PSG (w) over 2.5 @+346 (W)
will put up tonights thoughts in a bit and thatll pretty much be it for the season.
UCL: on a nice little UCL/UEL run to close out season, hit that parlay last night so decided to take a shot at this.
Munich/Lyon - prices are ridiculous, not to mention seriously inflated. but taking a PASS on sides for this one. for me, I think this whole Covid setup/layout has helped Munich more than anyone. mentioned a while back of how they are on a 4 year unbeaten run in the Bunde once they got booted from UCL. but in a "normal" season when they are juggling priorities between league/UCL, Ive consistently hit those Sandwich spots with them. this season? post-Covid, no CL in sight, went unbeaten steamrolling over everyone in Bunde/Pokal with 33-9 goals total. thats done, take a month off, then focus on UCL and ... steamrolling everyone there too. and theyve been able to keep everyone healthy as well. luck of the scheduling? who knows, but all i know is you need a serious set of cajones to go against them tonight with 4-5 days rest and fully focused. only reason im not taking it is the simple fact that they dont need to cover anything to advance. CL's are won/lost in the midfield and one of Munichs best theyve had in years.
for Lyon, theyre still here because theyve been very efficient in taking advantage of the chances they get. the one "advantage" - if you can even call it this - is the fact that they dont need to do anything from the get-go. Chelsea? - the situation dictated it being down 3 goals - had to open it up from the start; Barca? sitting back was never their MO anyways.
said this before the Barca game and again here, Munich punishes mistakes in the centre of pitch. and Bayerns way of 'protecting' leads is putting their foot on your throat. Already up 3 goals vs Chelsea and what they do? bang one in @ the 10 minute mark. Up 5-2 in the 70th vs Barca? bang in 3 more for good measure. its not a negative comment, its just their MO. so taking an under 2.5/3/3-5 is not worth it, not with this team. even at those prices. Lyon has the height/athleticism in the back, especially to handle those crosses in the box. and similar to my thoughts last night with Leip, I seriously doubt Lyon going to high press or even have anyone near the midfield line, if they do? this will blow up in thy face quickly. and if you take a peek at Munichs results this year in UCL, even with those ridiculous scorelines, Bayern had scored more than 1 goal in 1st half in just 5 of their 9 games. two of them were during injury time, and the other two were those KO rounds with opponents whom attacked them from the starat. going to take a shot at this for fun.
Munich/Lyon under 1.5 @-115 (1st half)
Munich/Lyon over 2.5 @+190 (2nd half) geez, friend dropped this stat on lap. theres been 2+ goals in 2nd half 75% (39-13) of all Munichs games this eyar (including 8 of 9 CL's). that seems abnormally high for a Power 5 club with a jam packed sched at both ends of the season. and if Lyon behind at the whistle?
GL to all
Munich/Lyon under 1.5 @-115 (L)
Munich/Lyon over 2.5 @+190 (L)
these last 4 games lacked any kind of drama/excitement. watching, but not really watching. strange thing to say even tho its the semis of a major tourney.
so now we have a final with (statiistically) the best offensive squad (Bayern) vs the best defensive squad (PSG) in the UCL. yeah, "defense" + PSG in same sentence.
wont play anything except 2nd half over. and this season is officially "done". break time.
GL to all
Established in 1995,
, thnx as always
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