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Another line that is way off. Uruguay vs England

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Posted: #1
Uruguay is +290.  That means they only have a 25% chance of winning the game.  I think the line is way off.  IMO, they have over a 33% chance to win this game.  The ML should not be more than +200.  
Uruguay pk is +180.  That means they only have a 35% chance NTL.  I think the line should be closer to -150, which would give them a 60% chance NTL.

Uruguay +290
Uruguay pk +180
Uruguay -1, -1.5 +675
Uruguay TT Over 1 -117

Uruguay 3-1, please.  
 
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Posted: #2
Agreed completely. All football conversation aside this line does not represent the percentages of the potential outcomes. No idea who wins here but you are right about this


 
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Posted: #3
Uruguay is simply overrated. Suarez and Cavani are great strikers but thats almost everything they have. If costa rica scores three goals against you, im a little worried what rooney, sturridge, welbeck and sterling will do.

Anyways, GL with your picks. I understand your argumentation 
 
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Posted: #4

great call with the chile game yesterday

credit where its due

but I have england moneyline at 2.10 today

after playing a great match vs italy, look for them to bury the uncertain uruguay defensive line

 
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Posted: #5
I understand  your approach towards the value but I think England wins 2-0 or 2-1.  You're right about the 33% chance of hitting but this is the World Cup and England finish them off.
 
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Posted: #6
The Chile call was great and I'll give you credit here if you're right again but I simply believe that Uruguay isn't creative enough on offense.
 
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Posted: #7

Suarez was out vs Costa Rica

Suarez + Cavani =  

 

 
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Posted: #8

Suarez is a joke.

If the books priced England at only a 40% chance NTL they'd get friggin buried.

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by sandique:

Suarez is a joke.

If the books priced England at only a 40% chance NTL they'd get friggin buried.


Would you look at that?
 
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Posted: #10
England desperation could lead to a Uruguay counter.  Hope that happens early in the 2nd.
 
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Posted: #11
Suarez a joke? He has his team in the lead with a sick header.
 
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Posted: #12
Suarez  !
 
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Posted: #13
Uruguay +290
Uruguay pk +180
Uruguay -1, -1.5 +675

After Half these odds are...

Uruguay -105
Uruguay pk -270
Uruguay -1, -1.5 +290

 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by MRMigfromCali:

Suarez  !

How are you even in this thread? Werent you the guy that wouldn't give credit to this man yesterday and now your in the same thread cheering his pick on? Come on man lol

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Ham3381:

How are you even in this thread? Werent you the guy that wouldn't give credit to this man yesterday and now your in the same thread cheering his pick on? Come on man lol

that was yesterday  this is today,  and there is a difference between cheering a pick and agreeing w a pick ...Gamblers move on from the past.....

 
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Posted: #16
That hurts.  Let's get it back.
 
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Posted: #17
SUAREZ!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #18
 
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Posted: #19
Very nice hit, dude.  Suarez was more fit than I anticipated.  Honestly, Uruguay should have been playing with 10 men but a win is a win. 


 
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Posted: #20
Suarez +290
Suarez pk +180
Uruguay -1, -1.5 +675
Suarez TT Over 1 -117
 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
 
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Posted: #23
SUAREZ  !!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #24
Late game, I'm on...

Greece +225
Greece pk +127
Greece Over 1 Goal -105
Greece Wins 1-0 +800
Greece Wins 2-0 +1600
Greece Wins 2-1 +975

 
 
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Posted: #25
Don't like it nearly as much as Uruguay, but still good value for Greece.
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