A lot going on, a lot of narratives, this will be a tough tourney.
COL vs ECU
Colombia come in with a good deal of momentum and revenge - last match in the qualifiers in Nov 2020 COL got lambasted by ECU 6-0 in Quito). COL totally outclassing Ecuador despite not having Falcao and James - both of these omissions are great actually. Cuadrado is the offensive glue and assist/set up man and just helped Colombia come back from a 0-2 vs Argentina a few days ago in the qualifiers. This momentum is really all that is needed to handicap this match. Enner Valencia will be contained by Colombia back 4 Sanchez, Medina, Mina and Tesillo. I smell COL clean sheet/Win to Nil.
Mina and Zapata are the guys to watch. Borja as well but he will sub in. COL 2-0
COL -109 3U
==================================
BRA vs VEN
Everyone is out for VEN: COVID, oddmakers know BRA can score at will without Fariñez. Yet the total is just 3 +119 (Heritage). BRA will play their game, build a lead and rest some players. This won't be a blow out. I expected this total to be 3½ OV +105 but the oddsmakers seem to know something. Asian is -2½ -104. This match has 3-0 written all over it.
If you must, and can get it, take the BRA/VEN UN 3½, but who needs degenerate action today with so much going on with Euro 2020? With all the other action I don't think we'll see the public bet the total up her today.
The pen is mightier than the pigs
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
A lot going on, a lot of narratives, this will be a tough tourney.
COL vs ECU
Colombia come in with a good deal of momentum and revenge - last match in the qualifiers in Nov 2020 COL got lambasted by ECU 6-0 in Quito). COL totally outclassing Ecuador despite not having Falcao and James - both of these omissions are great actually. Cuadrado is the offensive glue and assist/set up man and just helped Colombia come back from a 0-2 vs Argentina a few days ago in the qualifiers. This momentum is really all that is needed to handicap this match. Enner Valencia will be contained by Colombia back 4 Sanchez, Medina, Mina and Tesillo. I smell COL clean sheet/Win to Nil.
Mina and Zapata are the guys to watch. Borja as well but he will sub in. COL 2-0
COL -109 3U
==================================
BRA vs VEN
Everyone is out for VEN: COVID, oddmakers know BRA can score at will without Fariñez. Yet the total is just 3 +119 (Heritage). BRA will play their game, build a lead and rest some players. This won't be a blow out. I expected this total to be 3½ OV +105 but the oddsmakers seem to know something. Asian is -2½ -104. This match has 3-0 written all over it.
If you must, and can get it, take the BRA/VEN UN 3½, but who needs degenerate action today with so much going on with Euro 2020? With all the other action I don't think we'll see the public bet the total up her today.
See above, this line went to 3½ and then quickly back down to 3. No one is playing for Venezuela today yet this total should easily be 3½ or 4. VEN could easily eke out a goal yet the oddsmakers are saying this is a 3-0 match. I agree but probably only 2-0 Brazil result.
Some Odds:
VEN TT ½ UN -375 BRA Win to Nil -263 BRA Clean Sheet -358
BRA Win to nil is promising in the above odds. But in these COVID times hitting South America hard recently, I have to account for some solidarity here and think that BRA nets 2 or 3 and stands down. You can't handicap this with real numbers...
VEN/BRA UN 3½ -133 (Heritage) 3U
The pen is mightier than the pigs
0
BRA vs VEN
See above, this line went to 3½ and then quickly back down to 3. No one is playing for Venezuela today yet this total should easily be 3½ or 4. VEN could easily eke out a goal yet the oddsmakers are saying this is a 3-0 match. I agree but probably only 2-0 Brazil result.
Some Odds:
VEN TT ½ UN -375 BRA Win to Nil -263 BRA Clean Sheet -358
BRA Win to nil is promising in the above odds. But in these COVID times hitting South America hard recently, I have to account for some solidarity here and think that BRA nets 2 or 3 and stands down. You can't handicap this with real numbers...
Romero probably won't play tonight but you never know. If he does play he won't be full strength. Making the below bets not knowing this beforehand is usually a stupid move - but either way I see a slight edge with Chile here and what looks to be a snoozefest 0-0 match.
A little money coming in on Chile, I should have played this yesterday, thought we'd see a steady line increase and I was counting on +.75 +120. Argentina still trying to get into the groove. Although they've had their moments during the Messi era they have not been a great tourney team - yeah I said it. During this era when faced with decent competition they seem disjointed and un focused (they've had a few nice runs but uh....). Six days ago they blew a 2-0 lead to Colombia, and I blame Foyth and Scaloni who in my understanding are still playing and coaching.
Franco Armani seems to step it up and him being out is a big plus. I personally always root for him and he can be clutch in Argentina's tourneys (He's lost me money when I had the other side). Because of this Chile might net one.
Chile ALWAYS plays well in this tourney regardless of host country.
Argentina for the WC Qualifiers has beaten Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru and tied Paraguay, Chile and Colombia. Has not played BRA nor URU.
Chile's WC Qualifying performance has not been much better.
Veterans Vidal and Vargas are starting for Chile but no Sanchez, ouch.
COVID Angle: Argentina's feathers are more ruffled than Chile's due to the move of venue, I don't like their travel plans in and out of Brazil, based in Argentina. This is not the way a competitive team approaches a serious tourney.
Bottom line is these teams are evenly matched despite big name Messi and no Sanchez and this is probably the very stinker we've all been waiting for 0-0
UN 2 +111 3U* CHI +.75 -114 2U DRAW CS 0-0 +630 ½U
* For grading and posting purposes I am UN 2 +111 for 3U - but personally playing 1.5U now and 1.5U later, thinking it will be a better line
BOL
The pen is mightier than the pigs
0
2-0 +6.00U
ARG vs CHI
Romero probably won't play tonight but you never know. If he does play he won't be full strength. Making the below bets not knowing this beforehand is usually a stupid move - but either way I see a slight edge with Chile here and what looks to be a snoozefest 0-0 match.
A little money coming in on Chile, I should have played this yesterday, thought we'd see a steady line increase and I was counting on +.75 +120. Argentina still trying to get into the groove. Although they've had their moments during the Messi era they have not been a great tourney team - yeah I said it. During this era when faced with decent competition they seem disjointed and un focused (they've had a few nice runs but uh....). Six days ago they blew a 2-0 lead to Colombia, and I blame Foyth and Scaloni who in my understanding are still playing and coaching.
Franco Armani seems to step it up and him being out is a big plus. I personally always root for him and he can be clutch in Argentina's tourneys (He's lost me money when I had the other side). Because of this Chile might net one.
Chile ALWAYS plays well in this tourney regardless of host country.
Argentina for the WC Qualifiers has beaten Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru and tied Paraguay, Chile and Colombia. Has not played BRA nor URU.
Chile's WC Qualifying performance has not been much better.
Veterans Vidal and Vargas are starting for Chile but no Sanchez, ouch.
COVID Angle: Argentina's feathers are more ruffled than Chile's due to the move of venue, I don't like their travel plans in and out of Brazil, based in Argentina. This is not the way a competitive team approaches a serious tourney.
Bottom line is these teams are evenly matched despite big name Messi and no Sanchez and this is probably the very stinker we've all been waiting for 0-0
UN 2 +111 3U* CHI +.75 -114 2U DRAW CS 0-0 +630 ½U
* For grading and posting purposes I am UN 2 +111 for 3U - but personally playing 1.5U now and 1.5U later, thinking it will be a better line
Low scoring, both teams happy to be here. This is the game to win in order to advance over the other. That team is Paraguay but I'm not laying the big number on the 3 way
COVID Angle: BOL has 3 mystery players out due to covid.
PAR clean sheet -115 1U
PAR - .75 -141 1U
BOL
The pen is mightier than the pigs
0
BOL vs PAR
Low scoring, both teams happy to be here. This is the game to win in order to advance over the other. That team is Paraguay but I'm not laying the big number on the 3 way
COVID Angle: BOL has 3 mystery players out due to covid.
Considerations: There is no real value for Colombia in blowing out Venezuela tomorrow. Brazil aside, Colombia needs to only win 2 matches against the likes of ECU, PER and VEN. They have already beaten ECU the toughest of the three and VEN should be that 2nd win. Goal Diff doesn't matter as much in a tourney where you're one of the top dominant teams and 4 of 5 teams advance. Also it's too early to predict who you want to match up against in the quarters. So another reason to not blow out your opponent using diff to jump a spot in order to not face ARG or URU. Get a lead and take it easy behind the ball, crowd the box and park the bus (Did I miss any?)
Colombia wants to win, Colombia backers want a win by two goals or more. And therein lies the gamble. We've seen both squads play already and VEN has not shown anything that says they have a decent chance of more than one shot on goal or more than 3 set pieces.
A 1-0 Colombia win does not seem unlikely - VEN making any progress against COL's back 4 seems like a longshot. Ospina should have an easy day meaning he won't have to get up off the grass more than twice.
I see COL 1-0 or 2-0
Shopping for plays we have a mediocre and pricey selection:
COL -.75 a smart play but @ -294 - ouch! COL -1 -218 - ouch! COL WIN to Nil -118 COL clean sheet -161 Half/Full COL/COL -120 UN 2.75 -134 UN 2.5 -102
COL Win to NIL -118 3U
BOL
The pen is mightier than the pigs
1
COL/VEN
Considerations: There is no real value for Colombia in blowing out Venezuela tomorrow. Brazil aside, Colombia needs to only win 2 matches against the likes of ECU, PER and VEN. They have already beaten ECU the toughest of the three and VEN should be that 2nd win. Goal Diff doesn't matter as much in a tourney where you're one of the top dominant teams and 4 of 5 teams advance. Also it's too early to predict who you want to match up against in the quarters. So another reason to not blow out your opponent using diff to jump a spot in order to not face ARG or URU. Get a lead and take it easy behind the ball, crowd the box and park the bus (Did I miss any?)
Colombia wants to win, Colombia backers want a win by two goals or more. And therein lies the gamble. We've seen both squads play already and VEN has not shown anything that says they have a decent chance of more than one shot on goal or more than 3 set pieces.
A 1-0 Colombia win does not seem unlikely - VEN making any progress against COL's back 4 seems like a longshot. Ospina should have an easy day meaning he won't have to get up off the grass more than twice.
I see COL 1-0 or 2-0
Shopping for plays we have a mediocre and pricey selection:
COL -.75 a smart play but @ -294 - ouch! COL -1 -218 - ouch! COL WIN to Nil -118 COL clean sheet -161 Half/Full COL/COL -120 UN 2.75 -134 UN 2.5 -102
Barney, nice info you posted in here. my only future was taking Colombians. backed them vs Ecuador not even knowing Duvan/Muriel up front werent starting & my customary Bolivian fade ? got lucky twice. enough of that for me.
agreed, is it really necessary to have a Group stage when 8 of the 10 advance? part of me thinking why even bother. not in-tune as much as you but feel bad for the fans, thats quite a mess the Copa has gone through the past 2-3 weeks. GL and continued success with this. hope all is well with fam.
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Barney, nice info you posted in here. my only future was taking Colombians. backed them vs Ecuador not even knowing Duvan/Muriel up front werent starting & my customary Bolivian fade ? got lucky twice. enough of that for me.
agreed, is it really necessary to have a Group stage when 8 of the 10 advance? part of me thinking why even bother. not in-tune as much as you but feel bad for the fans, thats quite a mess the Copa has gone through the past 2-3 weeks. GL and continued success with this. hope all is well with fam.
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BOL
part of me thinking why even bother. not in-tune as much as you but feel bad for the fans, thats quite a mess the Copa has gone through the past 2-3 weeks. GL and continued success with this. hope all is well with fam. 
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