Euro 2012....

Awesome work Van. Any plans "hedge" .....I know you dont believe in it. I would at least bet enough to cover my original Italy futures wager to take losing out of the equation.

Hi Van, been lurking since I noticed you were on Italy well before the tourney began.  I backed Italy pre @ 16.5 out to 18.5 for £400 stake.  I have laid @ a few stages but have a nice profit both ways now, still worth over a £1K for the Italy win and I will be cheering that on!  No more bets though, just enjoy the game Sunday ;o)

Been a good run for me I started backing the LA Kings in Dec backed them @ 30.0 out to 56.0.  I am hoping good things do come in 3's so went 4 times my usual bet on Raonic @ Wimbledon ;o)

I have appreciated your thread very much and will be back in the future.

Take care and good luck,

Adrian.

Oh, tonight that late goal made my only bet on Italy/o2.5 double @ 11.0, was a twitcher late on though, I was cursing Di Natale on that break ;o)

Night

Just to be clear...

I am against hedging unless it fits one of the following conditions - as stated in the epic thread here....

1.  There is "utility" in the amounts
2.  Something has changed since you made the wager to make you presume value by hedging.
3.  You would make a wager on the opposite (hedge) side at the current time if you didnt have the original positiion.

All of those MIGHT apply for me...

Thats kind what I thought. Futures and hedging are a whole different animal when you start talking about 40 or more units on the line for 3 unit risk. No sense in losing 3 units if Italy loses.....

Well played sir.

Alright - so lets look at the Italy to win future situation....

My bet is at +1425.  I have 2 units on it, but others have more / less.

I am against hedging unless it fits one of the following conditions - as stated in the epic thread here....

1. There is "utility" in the amounts
2. Something has changed since you made the wager to make you presume value by hedging.
3. You would make a wager on the opposite (hedge) side at the current time if you didnt have the original positiion.

Current Value:
The current value of every unit at +1425, assuming that the price of Spain to win the cup is at -165 = 4.75 units for every unit you have wagered.

You can get this by wagering (hedging if you like the term) 9.5 units on Spain at -165.  This would ensure you a PROFIT of 4.75 units.  So for every unit you have wagered - you have a net present value of 4.75 units.

Utility:
The term utility roughly means that there is a value to the amount of money in question that is not linear.  In other words - to some people 100 thousand dollars is not worth to them 100 times the amount of 1 thousand dollars - 100K would be worth MORE than 100 times 1 thousand dollars to them.

This is a personal calculation.  Everyone has a different measure of utility.  If you were a millionaire you might not sweat a 100 dollar bet, but if you were homeless - 100 dollars might have utility while a 1 dollar bet would be the one you didnt sweat.  Utility is why insurance companies exist, and why people are willing to pay a premium for returns that hold utility.

My read on the final:

I went back and watched both the Germany / Italy game from yesterday - and the Italy / Spain game back on June 10th. First - yesterdays game...

Watching it back - Germany played Italy just about even. The end stats were just about even - as were the chances on the field - with some very subtle differences that made the difference for the Italians. First - Pirlo. What can you say about this guy in this tournament? And how did Germany not put a mark on this guy? We all saw how he ran wild over England - and that was when England supposedly had Rooney or Wellbeck marking him at all times - but I fully expected Kroos to be marking Pirlo all over the field. Just watch the first goal again - Pirlo is being harassed - takes the ball a few yards back towards his own goal - then picks out a left wing pass of about 30 yards to a wide open overlapped Italian - who works with Casano to get the cross off to Balotellis head. The germans had Pirlo shut down at midfield - but let him have the space to create - and that was their undoing.

Pirlo has shown that he is not to be given any space whatsoever. In the first Italy / Spain match on June 10th, it was Pirlo who set up DiNatale under similar circumstances. I am fairly certain that the Spanish will set someone like Xabi Alonso to do nothing but shadow Pirlo on defense. But is he even coverable at this point? That should be a big factor in who lifts the cup - but the Italians have set up this midfield "diamond" even without Pirlo that seems to have solved their turnover woes - and gives them almost a "spanish" possession advantage. Very patient - very skilled - very intricate passing triangles - and then boom - one of them picks their head up and there is a runner at the top in on goal. This is very dangerous.

In the first match Italy only had 35% possession. I dont think they will win with this number - and while possession isnt always the determinant of winning and losing - I do think the style that the Italians are playing now will require more possession. Maybe not a majority - but more. Spain will surely recognize this and probably be fine with setting in even deeper than they have done against France and Portugal - just happy to knock it around.

Therefore - because of the need for possession - I am anticipating the same lineup that started against Italy the first time for Spain - the so called "false 9" of 4-6-0. Personally - I think this is when Spain are at their worst - and personally - I think this is the worst tactic to take against this Italy lineup. Spain needs width and depth against a team that is so willing to play in the midfield - and is happy to play narrow. Pedro has looked dangerous to me in his minutes in the tournament - and Navas - while doing nothing very special individually - has created width. If they both start - I think Italy are in trouble - but I dont think they will.

At the risk of repeating myself - because I have said it since the first Spain game - Spain are beatable (or at least drawable) when they paly with no width and depth. There are no gaps between lines - there is no space to work in. How about all the times Spain goes out wide - only to say "fuck it, I dont want that wide open flank for a cross" only to pass it back to the middle of the center circle? Or the corner kicks that are either short or end up 100 yards backwards at the feet of Casillas? This is because the lack of space between lines and players - the safest pass is often the shortest pass to a wide open player - but that players position gains you no advantage. As opposed to taking riskier passes to put players in advantageous positions.

I get it. Spain is looking to do this for 90, maybe 120 minutes - and all they need is one attack where a defense goes to sleep for 5 seconds and the ball is in the net. I also get that Spain hasnt given up a goal since June 10th on the foot of DiNatale. 1 goal against in 5 games - none in the last 4+! Amazing. But the times they have looked beatable on defense (against Italy and against Croatia) have been on longer balls because of space - the same type of goals that Italy scored against Germany and have been looking to do all tournament.

It is tough to stay with Balotelli all game when he is doing what he did yesterday. My comments after the first Italy Spain game were that I did not like his lack of movement when he didnt have the ball - but clearly he has gotten that message - the second goal yesterday was a superb finish - but his work just to get in that position was masterful. He basically took BOTH central german defenders totally out of the play by his movement - and had only Lahm (the left back) who had to get out of his position to make up for the central defense lapse. Montolivio picks his head up, from his own third, sees this and the rest is history. I do think the Spanish are succeptable to this - but once again - possession creates these types of chances.

So as far as my pick for this game - TAKING MY FUTURE BET OUT OF THE EQUATION - I would be betting Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units. I think they have an excellent chance to win, or certainly extend the game in to ET or PKs. In fact - I think the way Spain plays - PKs are always an excellent chance.

Conclusion:

I have utility in my wager. It is just flat out a lot of money. It will be the single biggest winning wager of my life if it wins.

But I do like Italy in the game, and nothing has changed with my original Italy to win bet that would make me change my mind now. So is my utility enough to make me take some profits and hedge - even a partial amount? Nope. Im letting it ride. I have just decided that this is the right thing to do - and I would be going against my own philosophies to hedge out now without a proper reason to do so.

But I am very curious to hear what everyone else is doing, and suggestions for tranquilizers to watch the game.

Going to repost the whole thing because it got broken up by the page break.....

Alright - so lets look at the Italy to win future situation....

My bet is at +1425. I have 2 units on it, but others have more / less.

I am against hedging unless it fits one of the following conditions - as stated in the epic thread here....

1. There is "utility" in the amounts
2. Something has changed since you made the wager to make you presume value by hedging.
3. You would make a wager on the opposite (hedge) side at the current time if you didnt have the original positiion.

Current Value:
The current value of every unit at +1425, assuming that the price of Spain to win the cup is at -165 = 4.75 units for every unit you have wagered.

You can get this by wagering (hedging if you like the term) 9.5 units on Spain at -165. This would ensure you a PROFIT of 4.75 units. So for every unit you have wagered - you have a net present value of 4.75 units.

Utility:
The term utility roughly means that there is a value to the amount of money in question that is not linear. In other words - to some people 100 thousand dollars is not worth to them 100 times the amount of 1 thousand dollars - 100K would be worth MORE than 100 times 1 thousand dollars to them.

This is a personal calculation. Everyone has a different measure of utility. If you were a millionaire you might not sweat a 100 dollar bet, but if you were homeless - 100 dollars might have utility while a 1 dollar bet would be the one you didnt sweat. Utility is why insurance companies exist, and why people are willing to pay a premium for returns that hold utility.

My read on the final:

I went back and watched both the Germany / Italy game from yesterday - and the Italy / Spain game back on June 10th. First - yesterdays game...

Watching it back - Germany played Italy just about even. The end stats were just about even - as were the chances on the field - with some very subtle differences that made the difference for the Italians. First - Pirlo. What can you say about this guy in this tournament? And how did Germany not put a mark on this guy? We all saw how he ran wild over England - and that was when England supposedly had Rooney or Wellbeck marking him at all times - but I fully expected Kroos to be marking Pirlo all over the field. Just watch the first goal again - Pirlo is being harassed - takes the ball a few yards back towards his own goal - then picks out a left wing pass of about 30 yards to a wide open overlapped Italian - who works with Casano to get the cross off to Balotellis head. The germans had Pirlo shut down at midfield - but let him have the space to create - and that was their undoing.

Pirlo has shown that he is not to be given any space whatsoever. In the first Italy / Spain match on June 10th, it was Pirlo who set up DiNatale under similar circumstances. I am fairly certain that the Spanish will set someone like Xabi Alonso to do nothing but shadow Pirlo on defense. But is he even coverable at this point? That should be a big factor in who lifts the cup - but the Italians have set up this midfield "diamond" even without Pirlo that seems to have solved their turnover woes - and gives them almost a "spanish" possession advantage. Very patient - very skilled - very intricate passing triangles - and then boom - one of them picks their head up and there is a runner at the top in on goal. This is very dangerous.

In the first match Italy only had 35% possession. I dont think they will win with this number - and while possession isnt always the determinant of winning and losing - I do think the style that the Italians are playing now will require more possession. Maybe not a majority - but more. Spain will surely recognize this and probably be fine with setting in even deeper than they have done against France and Portugal - just happy to knock it around.

Therefore - because of the need for possession - I am anticipating the same lineup that started against Italy the first time for Spain - the so called "false 9" of 4-6-0. Personally - I think this is when Spain are at their worst - and personally - I think this is the worst tactic to take against this Italy lineup. Spain needs width and depth against a team that is so willing to play in the midfield - and is happy to play narrow. Pedro has looked dangerous to me in his minutes in the tournament - and Navas - while doing nothing very special individually - has created width. If they both start - I think Italy are in trouble - but I dont think they will.

At the risk of repeating myself - because I have said it since the first Spain game - Spain are beatable (or at least drawable) when they paly with no width and depth. There are no gaps between lines - there is no space to work in. How about all the times Spain goes out wide - only to say "fuck it, I dont want that wide open flank for a cross" only to pass it back to the middle of the center circle? Or the corner kicks that are either short or end up 100 yards backwards at the feet of Casillas? This is because the lack of space between lines and players - the safest pass is often the shortest pass to a wide open player - but that players position gains you no advantage. As opposed to taking riskier passes to put players in advantageous positions.

I get it. Spain is looking to do this for 90, maybe 120 minutes - and all they need is one attack where a defense goes to sleep for 5 seconds and the ball is in the net. I also get that Spain hasnt given up a goal since June 10th on the foot of DiNatale. 1 goal against in 5 games - none in the last 4+! Amazing. But the times they have looked beatable on defense (against Italy and against Croatia) have been on longer balls because of space - the same type of goals that Italy scored against Germany and have been looking to do all tournament.

It is tough to stay with Balotelli all game when he is doing what he did yesterday. My comments after the first Italy Spain game were that I did not like his lack of movement when he didnt have the ball - but clearly he has gotten that message - the second goal yesterday was a superb finish - but his work just to get in that position was masterful. He basically took BOTH central german defenders totally out of the play by his movement - and had only Lahm (the left back) who had to get out of his position to make up for the central defense lapse. Montolivio picks his head up, from his own third, sees this and the rest is history. I do think the Spanish are succeptable to this - but once again - possession creates these types of chances.

So as far as my pick for this game - TAKING MY FUTURE BET OUT OF THE EQUATION - I would be betting Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units. I think they have an excellent chance to win, or certainly extend the game in to ET or PKs. In fact - I think the way Spain plays - PKs are always an excellent chance.

Conclusion:

I have utility in my wager. It is just flat out a lot of money. It will be the single biggest winning wager of my life if it wins.

But I do like Italy in the game, and nothing has changed with my original Italy to win bet that would make me change my mind now. So is my utility enough to make me take some profits and hedge - even a partial amount? Nope. Im letting it ride. I have just decided that this is the right thing to do - and I would be going against my own philosophies to hedge out now without a proper reason to do so.

But I am very curious to hear what everyone else is doing, and suggestions for tranquilizers to watch the game.

Are there any reverse lines out there? Can you get Spain +.5 in regulation? Any thoughts of parlaying Spain ML with a big tennis fav?

Just brainstorming.