Euro 2012....

Fuck it I'll watch some Soccer (Futbol)........

I'm rollin with ya Van and wish you tons of luck. My biggest win was a futures bet on Green Bay to win the SB a couple yrs back. That was the toughest game to watch of my life and they pulled it out for me. I hope you get to feel that rush at the end of the game.

100/240

Well - not that much fun in the end, and not profitable either.  My downfall was the futures - too much lumped in to the anti-Enland basket.  Will learn from it for next time.

That was not a typical 4-0 scoreling - it really could have been totally different with a few breaks - but it goes this way sometimes.

Its been a lot of fun.  Now - about 6 weeks with nothing to do!

GL all - until next time...

It really is.  Thats a pretty good formula for winning tournaments.

Dangerous math on that one, I think.  "Won" amount under a perfect hedge I think would have been closer to 4.45 units, I think.  Not a whiz with this stuff, could be wrong, I just do a lot of quick math with arbs, and think it would have been closer to that.

Didn't post in the thread, but kept up with it fairly consistently.  Very entertaining, great capping, you've gotten a lot of thanks for the time you put into it, one more, thanks for posting Vanzack

I especially liked your perspective on whether to hedge in this situation.  The "utility" angle was something I've never really considered in my decision process.  Obviously, with hindsight, hedge would have ended up more profitable, but in the end, it was just 2 units, for the chance at 28...very tought to move away from that, especially when you thought Italy had value

Thanks for the compliments.  No regrets on my end.

Now - a 6 week vaca from all sports.

Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

Dangerous? OK.

Now, show me your math.

I might be wrong, I probably should have just not said anything, main purpose of my post was to thank Van for all his work in this thread, I just am a little OCD when it comes to probability/statistics.  I may even have misintepreted, definitely not looking to argue on it.  Since you asked though, my math was:

1 Unit at +1400 on Italy (1 to win 14)

 9.54 Units on Spain at -175  ( 9.54 to win 5.45)

If Italy wins, you win 14, but lose 9.54 - net +4.46

If Spain wins, you lose 1, but win 5.45 - net +4.45

And, I only meant dangerous, because making a small mistake on the math can be pretty dangerous, from my own experience.  I've done it too many times myself, and cost myself dearly for it

I think the error in your calculation was using 73.6% and 26.4% when translating the -175 money line.  Should have been 63.6% and 36.4%, I think.  If you used those percentages, the same calculation you presented would have calculated a worth of the original wager of 4.46 (i.e., the value of a "perfect hedge" in that situation.)

The rest of your post may have looked to do more than wipe out risk entirely, (I wasn't thinking about that angle, I usually like to wipe out risk as much as I can when I do arbs) but I still think your initial calculation was incorrect