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Euro 2012....

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Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 49
Posted: #1551
I have 1/2 unit at 1275
2 units at +1525
and 2 units at 1175

Will also be my biggest win if it hits (have hit longer odd futures, but not for for this amount).

As much as I want to lock in a 'win', i just dont see how i can hedge this. Current line on Spain does not offer much value in my opinion.
If anything, I am tempted to add another unit on Italy.

Van, thanks as always for your posts.

Good luck to all
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 7321
Posted: #1552
superb write up Van.  Seriously, a pleasure to read.  Good luck on Sunday
 
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Posts: 11527
Posted: #1553
Factor: Going up against arguably the world's best goalkeeper in soccer. 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 3
Posted: #1554
Italy to win the euro for +1500!
 
Rookie
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Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 670
Posted: #1555

You are a pleasure to follow and read. Thank you for all you do.

 

I too have Italy +1485, will be my third largest win!

 

This was as classy of a thread as you will ever see.

 

 
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Posts: 643
Posted: #1556
first off, great job vz. this thread is a must read if for nothing else to show how it's done. i appreciate the insight and i must admit, my account has been helped because of it. having said that, this is my take on the hedging theory. i personally always lock in profit when available. at the very least, i will hedge off enough to get my original bet back. obviously, you are in the catbird seat with this wager. good luck with whatever you choose and thinks again for all the help.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 4087
Posted: #1557

In my opinion,

 

you must hedge enough to take a trip and drown your sorrows in alcohol and ugly women. Atleast hedge enough to help ease your pain. Good luck. And congrats on the guaranteed winner , if you hedge.

 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59782
Posted: #1558
Quote Originally Posted by Zacreth:

Hi Vanzack,

I'm new to forum but I just recently found this forum and after a few days I'm happy to meet someone with similar methods to analysis.

I like your outcome but I was wondering... From what I've seen I found Spain lacking in finishers. Superb defense though. I'm curious to know if Spain is to start Torres, xavi, and Fabregas they might have enough firepower to stop Buffon. I've seen too many mistakes the past two games by Buffon to scare me away from Italy. But if Italy is able to a greater amount of possession then Italy should have enough attempts to score goals...

Also what are your opinions on the under/over?

Thanks for your through view of the game.

I do have an opinion on the O/U - based on the way Spain plays - I think the 1st half under is a good bet.  Their strategy is to go in to HT scoreless - and let the passing tire out the other team.  Spain have scored only 2 in first halves compared to 6 in second. 

I think the under for the 90 if anything, but would lean to the under in the first half more.  Im not betting it - but that is my thoughts on it.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #1559

Thanks everyone for posting in here.  It was a fun month.

Im not hedging.  It will all be riding tomorrow on the Azurri.  Im still not exactly sure how I will be able to watch it.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1828
Posted: #1560
I think you are saying that you are not sure whether to hedge your 14-1 bet on Italy winning .......
If so, first of all CONGRATULATIONS on that wager ......

YES to Hedge
 
Veteran
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Posts: 4453
Posted: #1561

Van... tremendous posts and insight.  I am with you on Italy. 

Best to you! 

 
Legend
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Posts: 41623
Posted: #1562
yeah van i will be betting 0-0 at half
 
Legend
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Posts: 54463
Posted: #1563
No goalscorer +600 or half time/ full time draw-draw +375 interest you at all?
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jun, 2012
Posts: 123
Posted: #1564

I have a future on Italy too Van and gonna let it ride aswell. Maybe ill do the same bet Prof did, betting on Spain and Italy to win with penalties. Just so that if Spain wins with PKs it wouldnt tilt the fuck out of me... Think its a great spot for Italy aswell though.

 
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Posts: 3353
Posted: #1565
Van

Thank you for a well written post. I enjoyed reading it. Good luck! 
 
Captain
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Posts: 8485
Posted: #1566
Van what a fun month Van great job with your posts

I have tailed most of your plays throughout the month and am also in a position to hedge but I'm not either..... Let what will be ..be.

I will play 00at 1/2, U 2 1/2 fg



BVP wins the AT&T today if Tiger does not come out of the box screaming
 
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Posts: 22102
Posted: #1567
 
Prospect
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Posts: 40
Posted: #1568
Good luck man. Indeed has been a really fun month and a lot of that has to do with your reliable insights that made me some cash
 
All-Star
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Posts: 14428
Posted: #1569
gl van 
 
Captain
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Joined: Jul, 2011
Posts: 9003
Posted: #1570
Should of waited before I locked in on Italy pk, the odds have gotten better. Take Italy pk +200 and thank me later. Spanish midgets are going to be frustrated tonight.
 
All-Star
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 11310
Posted: #1571
I think Italy is the perfect contrarian play.  Seems like everyone I speak to is infatuated with Spain just because they are Spain.  I also think Italy will play much looser as the pressure will be on Spain. This game  reminds me of this years Superbowl with Spain as the Patriots and Italy as the hot underdogs that nobody expects to win. 

Bol  been a great tournament thus far  
 
Legend
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Posts: 54463
Posted: #1572
First half draw -110 for a little more action Van?


Regardless, nice run.
 
MVP
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Posts: 17830
Posted: #1573
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

First half draw -110 for a little more action Van?


Regardless, nice run.


Train, why do you feel the need to keep asking about these random bets? Lol he obviously isn't going to add to his play here.
 
Legend
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Posts: 54463
Posted: #1574
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



Train, why do you feel the need to keep asking about these random bets? Lol he obviously isn't going to add to his play here.


Cause I'm bored and I can Mr. Covers Police. This wouldnt be adding to his play. This has nothing to do with it.

Mind your own business.
 
 
MVP
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Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 17830
Posted: #1575
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



Cause I'm bored and I can Mr. Covers Police. This wouldnt be adding to his play. This has nothing to do with it.

Mind your own business.


Dude, it seems like you're asking about every bet under the sun, like a sad little puppy begging for a play.

I'd say it's a good bet he has no interest adding any bets whatsoever, especially one like a first half draw or other random shit you keep asking about. Sounds like you've been following the thread, and if so you would know that.

But hey keep trying I guess.


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