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#1
Italy Serie B: Promotion playoffs 2nd leg. (1st leg was 0-0 draw)
Frosinone to win @-103 (strong play) - nailed the HT & full game draw last friday and heading right back to the well on this one. for about the final 1/4 of the season, the race for the coveted direct promotion was a 3-team battle (SPAL, Hellas, Fros). Frosinone ended level on points with Hellas but missed out by a single goal due to H2H's (won 1-0 @ home but lost 0-2 on road). They are a very strong home team whom actually have the best record at home since winter break (7W-2D-1L with a 15-7 goal difference). One of which was a 1-0 victory vs this same opponent back in Feb where they held a pretty significant % of possession.
Carpi has to go thru the 1-game playoff before their first leg to get here beating Cittadella 2-1 on the road which wasnt as suprising as it seemed as the home side had one of the worst defenses in Serie B with 54 conceded. last Fridays game went pretty much as expected as shots on goal were at a bare minimum (1 for each team) and possession split right down the middle 50-50. But Carpi has really struggled on the road this season, especially in scoring where they have just 17 goals in the 21 matches. And theyve been especcially brutal vs the remaining promotion candidates on road this season:
SPAL 1-3; Hellas 1-1; Fros 0-1; Perugia 2-0 (won with an own goal & PK); Benevetto 0-3; Cittadella 1-4.
Their style on road is one of the reasons for this big play. they are defensive minded and try to muck-up the match. but once that first goal is conceded, everything tends to crumble for them. And in Frosinones 21 home matches this year, theyve been held scoreless just once, and have actually scored 2+ goals in over half of them. And these two teams are not fond of one another, 41,39,40 are the total amount of fouls issued in their 3 H2H meetings, thats a LOT of stoppage.
But again, the 0-0 result from the first leg plays well into the situation; another 0-0 draw and taking it into extra time is definitely a possibility (anything is possible in socccer) but Frosinone is a different, stronger team here; and as stated above, just one team has held them scoreless in front of their fans. Carpi will also be missing Sabbione, an important MF whom picked up a red card. and ohh, this is Carpi's 3rd match in less than 7 days.
Frosinone/Carpi 1st half over 1 @+125, full time over 2 @-133 - unlike the first match, I dont see the first half remaining scoreless. Frosinone SHOULD score first and this will just break the flow wide open.
GL to all
0
tks. admittedly had started out slow in Italy this year, but then after break things picked up. 
LOL
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