Posted record: 3-0
2 plays for today:
PSG-Real Madrid both teams to score -150
PSG-Real Madrid over 2.5 -112
Maybe you read my write-up on Bastia-PSG to go under 2.5 this past Saturday. If you did, you know that I have been a PSG fan for 20 years now and have a real good feeling for how this team will play in certain situations.
This is PSG’s 4th straight season in the Champion’s League since the Qatar Investment Authority bought the team and started buying any player they could get their hands on. In handicapping this particular game, I am not going to talk about each and every UCL game they have played. That would be absolutely meaningless to do. What I am going to talk about are PSG’s games which have come against UEFA powers the past 4 years, because obviously Real Madrid falls into that category.
3 seasons ago, PSG drew the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man Group in Dynamo Kiev, Dinamo Zagreb, and FC Porto. They then caught another break in the Round of 16 and drew Valencia. However, Barcelona came calling in the quarterfinals. The first leg was played in Paris, and the score was 2-2.
2 seasons ago, the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man came calling again for PSG in group play with Olympiakos, Benfica, and Anderlecht as opponents. The round of 16 draw was kind once again with Leverkusen. The quarterfinal draw brought Chelsea, and once again the first match was played in Paris. Score: PSG 3 Chelsea 1.
Last season the law of averages caught up to PSG. Apoel, Ajax, and Barcelona were the group opponents. Just like this year with Real Madrid, Barcelona-PSG was the back-to-back matchup in Gameday 3 and 4 of the group stage. And once again, Paris was the site of the first game. Score: PSG 3 Barcelona 2. The round of 16 saw a PSG-Chelsea rematch from the year before. And yet again, Paris hosted the first game. Score: PSG 1 Chelsea 1. After PSG miraculously advanced by drawing at Chelsea with 10 men for almost the entire game, Barcelona was the opponent once more in the quarterfinals and PSG was home for the first leg again. Score: Barcelona 3 PSG 1.
What do you not see in any of these matches I have mentioned? The answer is there are zero clean sheets. What PSG has shown over the past few years is that no matter the opponent in UCL play, they will play attacking soccer. Especially at home. And with the talent they possess, there is always at least one goal to be had by PSG.
On the defensive end, one of the things I have watched in each and every one of these games is that not only has this team given up at least one goal but have given up multiple great scoring opportunities in all of them as well. They just can't seem to play lock-down defense even when they get the lead in these types of games. PSG can get away with defensive break downs against Ligue 1 competition and not allow any goals, but their inability to play shut down defense always leads to goals against Europe’s top teams. And with the firepower the visitors from Spain possess, that is going to spell trouble for anyone who plays the under.
As a matter of fact, PSG has been unable to hold their opponents scoreless in any of the 5 second legs of these match-ups as well having given up 1, 2, 3, 2, and 2 goals on the road.
This should be a highly entertaining game and not the garbage their match with Bastia brought. The core of players for PSG is the same now as it has been for the past 3 seasons, with some exceptions like Angel DiMaria. I just can’t see either team not scoring a goal, so the both teams to score prop is something I feel extremely confident about. Absolute worst case scenario for this game is 1-1, but it would not surprise me at all to see both teams put a crooked number on the scoreboard. The over should come in nicely as well.
Good luck to everyone today no matter who you are playing. Be sure to check the college football forum on Friday for a 1st half play I will probably have in the Memphis-Tulsa game.
Hot Forum Topics
