Soccer, Money & Wisdom

Good morning everyone:

I have been in this "game" for over a decade and my experiences have run the gamut.  I wanted to start this thread, first and foremost, to discuss soccer propositions and some excellent strategies that have suited me well - and hopefully can be of assistance to you all.  But, I love "the beautiful game" of soccer and I figure that those of you who focus on soccer propositions, love it as well.  

Anyway, I've been quite successful in soccer to this point - but I have learned many hard lessons along the last 10 years.  I will be sharing some of these "war stories" and also the triumphs - as well as positing plays so that hopefully, you all, can understand the methods, philosophy of approach, and ultimately, enjoy soccer as not only a wonderful sport but a terrific financial endeavor.

Cheers,

Mezzi

Very real possibility that Real Madrid nick a 2nd goal here and force extra time.

What were you watching? Even Real Madrid didnt believe they would score a second goal and extra time was a dreamland.

They were pathetic, I honestly think Leicester would have taken them playing the way they did today.

Welcome.  Look forward to your future posts.  Don’t mind some members, they will give you a hard time but they should focus on their own tracking.

daang twenty unnecessary leicester burn

I love wisdom and assistance to all. We've never seen that here before! 

I also love post game experts who chime in with their analysis to educate us all. 

Hello!

Man City were gifted the first goal by mistake.  Real Madrid came to life once Benzema scored a header.  It was clear to see that the momentum and flow of play was with Madrid, up until the point of the second mistake.  Poor defensive errors cost them yesterday, but, make no mistake - RM was good value to not have only scored, but to have advanced. 

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLAYS

I would like to note from the outset that I am a Live-In Play bettor.  I do this because, quite frankly, it is the best way to (1) get the best value and (2) have the highest probability of winning and (3) by watching the matches and understanding soccer, one is able to better predict things.  (Opposed to say looking at a live score service).

Bayern v. Chelsea:

Wisdom learned from soccer matches where there is "nothing to play for" here typically = "stay away."   Bayern are heavy favorites to win the CL, generally, and will likely cruise through this match.  They may draw, they may even lose - the point is, they have a 3 goal cushion and there's really nothing to play for here.  Be aware of matches where there is no real competitive motivation.  Players are less sharp, lacking motivation themselves. 

The ONLY way I would touch this match is a Live In Play wager if Chelsea score the first 2 goals, to make it a competitive match. 

Barcelona v Napoli

 Line movement favors Napoli - and rightfully so.  This is due to Barcelona's poor form to finish the La Liga and lack of match sharpness.  Meanwhile, Napoli are coming off Serie A, and have played competitive matches for the past 3.5 weeks.  Leg 1 was a 1-1 result, so Barca has the edge here if the match remains nil nil.  Napoli will not be hard-pressed or panic, even if they concede the first goal.  Napoli know they need one goal, and know, they can afford to give one goal, so long as they get a goal.  This presents an interesting chess match for the manager, and one, I believe the line movement on Napoli indicates.  That Napoli will be aggressive and take risks, knowing that as long as they do not concede 2, it's worth it to target that 1 goal.  

Should Napoli score first, Barcelona will be in major trouble, and this match will play to the line movement in Napoli's favor (and the over) because Barca will chase the match, opening them up and giving space to a dangerous Napoli team.

It would not surprise me in the least if this match ends 1-1 Full Time and goes to Extra Time.

The added factor:  Barcelona are under pressure.  This is the only competitive cup to win, to salvage a season.  That pressure will be cranked up if Napoli take the lead here.

I will update with some Live Plays as I watch this match - I won't be watching Bayern / Chelsea today.

For your own knowledge, I'm a quite "heavy" wagerer.  Meaning my "small bets" usually risk between 2,000 - 4,000.  

Mid range bets are 5,000 - 9,000.

Heavy bets are between 10,000 - 20,000.

When I state small, mid/medium, large - this is what I mean for future reference.

Cheers!

This Barcelona match is out of control!  3-1, penalties, VAR goals disallowed.  

If Napoli score to make it 3-2, Barcelona will be sweating!!!!

UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Let us begin the the obvious.  These single-leg matches favor the Under bettors, always.  These are tight matches, where teams are too afraid to play risky and concede.  The only way the Over gets love here, is an early goal in the first 10-15 minutes of play.  Otherwise, I would expect no more than 2 goals tops, from these single leg ties.

Inter v Leverkusen

Inter are a solid team, and have played well since the resumption of the COVID break.  I would give the edge to them in this match, on form, and match fitness.  The German teams (coming off layoffs) can be difficult to predict.  Either, they will be well rested, and that gives them an edge (but who isn't well-rested because of COVID right now) OR they will come out rusty due to lack of match sharpness.

Either way, I am not a "side-guy".  I play over/unders primarily, and this match screams UNDER to me.  I will likely be putting some low to medium wagers on In-Game Live Unders throughout this match.

Manchester United v. Copenhagen

Man U have been in terrific form since the restart.  They have prolific attacking right now.  This is a match I would expect to go Man U's way.  I am likely laying off from an Over/Under standpoint, but, I would expect Man U to progress.  This game is likely to not be as defensive - as I wouldn't expect Copenhagen to sit back and play the counter - it doesn't seem their style.  This will play to Man U's strength, as space should be available in this match.  

telling people what happened after it happened isnt called 'wisdom'. 

"Let us begin the the obvious.  These single-leg matches favor the Under bettors, always...."  this isnt true. toss out the World Cups. so if youre going to use the "single elim" for your reasoning then the only comparison would be the UCL/UEL finals (or even some of the League cups all over europe).  and 6 of the last 9 UCL finals blew over the 2.5.  6 of the past 9 UEL finals blew over that number.   if someone has the lead at the hour mark? gameplans get tossed out the window and kitchen sinks cometh forward. and as a capper, when you can get 20-25 minutes of bombs-away futbol, if an 'over' is anywhere near evens?  thats value.  i never touch an under with a single elim because of this. perhaps at the half, but definitely not the full. 

Hello!  

Thanks for your comment.  Let me shed some perspective on where I'm coming from.  

Single elimination matches against two comparatively equal teams, will typically be tightly played matches.  This is the general rule.  The theory is that evenly matched teams playing in a competition they both care about, means tight organizational formations, defensive discipline and tracking.

Now, this can (and has) all gone out the window if any of the following occur early in the match.

1.  Penalty

2.  Fluke goal / accidental or Sloppy Play

3.  Set pieces.  

These, of course, can happen at any time of the game.  What im focused on in these matches are goals flowing from open play. These, are typically limited and hence, the Unders are attractive.  

I also want to mention that an Under 2.5 is not always attractive which is why I Live Bet.  A match may be 1-0 at 25th minute mark.  But, I look for the "competitive edge" i.e.  the match is in the balance with 20 minutes left in a game.  I will 95% of the time, wager on an Under 3.5 <if match is 1-1 or Under 3 if match is 1-1 with 20 minutes remaining.  The success rate on not losing these wagers, is statistically quite high.

Quick Note:

The Inter match is 2-0 in 22nd Minute.  This is precisely the reason you should never bet pre match, only only live in play.  I can now <if I want> get the under 5 at -449.

Also, the Man U match is nil nil at 24th min.

Flipped matches, expectation wise.

 I would think Over backers are feeling good.

If Man U match stays 0-0 in 75th minute, hit the Under 1.  Copenhagen is  digging in, looking to hit them on the counter, and packing 10 men behind ball.

Under 5 at -449....nice one   with all this wisdom, I don't think we have seen any actual wagers yet, have we?

Under 1.5 -1022 

To win $1,000

Inter to win 

-925

25K to win 2500

2-0 record today!  

Cheers!

Great Job now where ya going to spend all that monopoly money?

Wow I am man enough to admit when I am wrong.  Great day.

CT, special shout to you for running amazing site!

beets

I'm happy to post the ticket if you don't believe me.  I do not lie about this stuff.

• Risk: 24,500.00 - Win: 2,500.00WIN
• SOC - [9220156] FC Inter Milano -980WIN
  Score: Bayer 04 Leverkusen(1) - FC Inter Milano(2)
  Game start 08/10/2020 03:00 PM

• Risk: 16,640.00 - Win: 1,000.00WIN
• TNT - Total Goals (Both Teams) FC Copenhagen vs ManchestTotal Goals (Both Teams) FC Copenhagen vs Manchester United FC [2188305] (0-1) -1664WIN
  Total Goals (Both Teams) FC Copenhagen vs Manchest
  Game start 08/10/2020 03:00 PM

Like I said, 2-0 and made $3,500 in 2 hours work.

Cheers!

Europe League

I'm staying away from Shakhtar v. Basel.  The only watch I touch this match is if it takes a similar path as the Man U game yesterday.  Meaning, if there's a draw going in the 75th minute or over, I will hit the Under 1 or Under 1.5 <or a draw equivalent scoreline like 1-1 or 2-2 regulation time>.  

Again, I am not in this to play sides or take favorites.  I am in this to earn money.  Goals, are the avenue to earn money.  On any given day, any team can beat another team.  Taking sides means you lose in the long run.  Playing goals, is a profit maker and, keeps the bias out of the propositions.

WolverHampton v. Sevilla 

This is the match that carries most inrigue to me.  Wolves are a fairly solid defensive team.  They play organized and tough, and their record shows it.  They have many matches where they have held their opponent to Nil.  

Wolves will play diciplined and organized football.  They will be the team looking to counter and nick a goal off a set piece, corner, or counter attack.  They will absorb pressure from Sevilla in this match.  

This is a wonderful match to look for Under value.  I will be watching this match live and likely hitting unders.  

Cheers!