Soccer, Money & Wisdom

Lost.  

ahh unlucky !

Scenario #2 occurred, and unfortunately for me, cost me big with 2 goals in extra time.  

It happens.  

On to tomorrow. 

So 4-1 - 15250 Now?  Seems like a betting strategy that will pay off long term.  BOL tomorrow.  

some users would just stop tracking, I don’t think that is you.

Yes sir, that is my record.  I pushed the Under 3, so I guess pushes don't need to be counted.

Do you see anything wrong with 4 wins and 1 loss but down 15250?

I forgot you had a push also, 4-1-1 -15250.

Mexico Soccer League 

UNAM v. Monterrey 

Locked Under 3.5 @ - 1802

18,020 to win 1,000

Mexico 

Xolos v. All San Luis 

Locked Under 3.5 @ - 1080

10,080 to win 1,000

6-1-1, - 13,250.

I pushed too much on PSG match.  I took good value and what my gut told me with the Under 3.  I thought when I placed Under 2.5, that at worst, it would be a 1-1 match and go extra time.

That said, I was dead on that once Atalanta conceded an equalizer, they would be deflated and possibly concede a quick 2nd goal.  That happened!  

I took a risk and pushed it though, when I should of laid off and been content with the Under 3.

Chalk it up as a learning experience and move onto the next one.    

Plenty of matches tomorrow, with some La Liga 2 promotion matches and Champions League!

Cheers!

Good Morning!  

Starting the day at 6-1-1 -$13,250.    

There's a couple of matches I have my eye on today.

La Liga 2 Promotion Matches

Girona v. Almeria. 

Elche v. Real Zaragoza

I want to preface this by stating that I am a big fan of La Liga.  I've made a substantial amount of money on that league as an Under bettor.  By contrast, leagues I do not like to typically play (because they lean towards overs are German League, Premier League).  La Liga is notoriously a Under league in comparison to these leagues, so I've naturally done well in La Liga throughout my career.

These matches are no different.  These are promotion matches, so a La Liga position is at stake.  They are two legged affairs, so the standard "caution" will play out UNLESS the away team gets a goal - then, usually all hell breaks loose.  Sometimes, when the away team gets a goal though, the match ends 0-1 because away is content with their goal, and home can't find an equalizer.  Look out for one of these!

Both these matches are trending towards an "Under" game.  Again, I point out matches where I consider "Goals from Open Play" being very unlikely.  Please note, this DOES NOT ALWAYS mean this happens, because as we can and have seen, penalties, set pieces, and corners, can get a goal - and change the course of the match.

The edge I look for is simple:  Expected Goals from Open Play.  In matches where something meaningful is on the line (promotion, cup advancement, etc...) all teams tend to play organized, defensively, motivated marking.  I see these two La Liga matches being up that vein, and will look to pounce on opportunities around 60th minute - 80th minute, if it's looking like a locked draw or a 1 goal game.  (i.e. 1-0 home team in 75th minute, I would take an Under 2.5 or Under 2).

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

RB Leipzig v. Atletico Madrid

This is an example of a match where it makes NO SENSE to play a side pre-match. What you get from this game are two sides with distinct identities.

AM -  I have watched them quite a bit through the years, and this season.  You know what you get with them. Diego S manages an organized, tough defensive side (though not as defensively stout as in prior years).  They are organized, tough, disciplined, experienced and will be hard to break down.  In a Champions League 1 off match, you would be lucky to score 1 goal against them.  They are likely to play a 4-4-2, maintain shape, but can easily counter a team with Joao Felix and Alvaro Morata.  I wouldn't be surprised it the goal they score is from a counter, or a set piece header by Morata.

RB Leipzig -  They are an attacking team in the German league.  But throw this out the window.  This is a CL match, and they WILL NOT play an open attacking football.  Of the two teams, of course RB would be "more attacking" and may inherently take more risks because they want to break AM down.  But RB are the underdog here and rightfully so.  Thus, because they are not a favorite, (and don't have individually superior players) they will not be taking attacking risks.  

This match is clearly and UNDER favorite.  I will be watching this match and looking to hit the Unders towards the later part of the match.

I want to point something out.  I obviously point to the matches I would play as unders.  This means by process of exclusion, I AM NOT touching, nor do I comment on matches that don't have this edge.  For example, I will NOT touch, analyze, comment on, or play the Swedish Allsvenskan league.  I hesitate to ever touch these matches with a 10 ft pole for unders - because they don't fit the "under" mold.

I just wanted to note this - that the games I write up and comment on, I've identified specifically because of the characteristics to be a LIVE BET on the under, late in game.  This is the moneymaker, and, this is where I am most successful. 

Cheers.

Your analysis isn't bad, but your betting strategy is terrible. Going 6-1-1 and you're -$13,000. Prob time to revise and revisit that strategy. You way better off betting regular plays pre-match. You could be 0-10 doing that and be down much less. To each their own

Thank you for your comment. 

Of course, to each his own.  But if -13,000 is only 1-2% of my bankroll, then its really just a figure.  

One must take the long game approach.  If you look at my YTD, or past 6 months, there were times, overall I may be down 5-10%.

Obviously, when I began posting you are only seeing a segmented fraction of that timeline.

Give it time, my friend. 

Trust me man, I will never tails anyone's plays, I only bet what I like and just banter with everyone else. If your bankroll to bet is 1.3 million then idk why you're wasting your time trying to impress people on covers. You should be out on a boat with some models or something on an island.

Anyways like I said your analysis is pretty legit and you know some soccer, I just hate your strategy. But it is your money and bankroll, so bet however you please. Just giving my two cents. GL today 

Thanks, CodyBanks! 

I always appreciate chatting soccer and propositions, its obviously a hobby and passion of mine.  

My bankroll isn't in the millions, but it is in 6 figures.  I sim for high success rates, which is why I'm willing to pay -1000 or more.  I have capacity to lay the juice and make 1-2 K in 10 minutes by doing so (alternatively as we saw in PSG, I can lose 20K in 10 minutes).  

The prudent bankroll management says, make wagers between 1.5-3% of your bankroll.  

That is what I am doing.  

Love the dialogue though.  

People don't need to tail me, but if they glean some nuggets of insight in my edge I have for Unders, maybe they will win something too.

Cheers

Yeah man I just don’t get why you make bets at those juices. You have a clue about the game. Why not you put 1K on under 3 in Atalanta game yesterday pre game to win 1k instead of in the 75th min at inflated juices where you’re exposed for 10k. It’s just not a good long term strategy. You have a 6-1-1 record which is over 75% success rate but down over 13K. The math just don’t work for me. I think if you switched your strategy you’d see much better returns in long run 

I totally understand what you are saying.  Part of my theory is "Time".  Let me explain this below later, when I have more time.   

Almeria v Girona match is about to begin.  I will likely be placing an under wager live, based on what I see.

 the most goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of play in all 5 leagues. i would never bet unders late with bad odds.

Almeria v. Girona 

Locked @ 1:54 pm ET @ - 1667 1st Half Under 1.5 goals.

16,667 to win 1,000

Statistically you might be correct.  In league play, think about why this is.  In most instances, a team is trailing in thwt time period.  So, naturally, space is opened at the end of thr match leading to either equalizers, or "garbage time/ insurance goals" because the losing team is pressing so much.

I do not play these end of match wagers, as a matter of course.  Only in instances when theres a competitive match where something is at stake.  I.e.  promotion, staving off relegation, advancement in a cup tie, tournament play like Euros, qualifiers or world cup.  Not a run of the mill match in Slovakia or Sweden.  Those are not what I'm inmplying, nor would I advise anyone play with my mentality.

Oh I know that Ben LOL. 75% of the guys on here aren't betting anything, but at least he's giving reasoning so I'll banter with him while I'm at work. Need to pass the time  

Qatar ????  League

QAT v. SAAD

Locked in @ -  1053 Under 1.5 goals.

21,060 to win 2,000

Good start to the afternoon matches.  Both of today's plays hit going into 2nd half of La Liga 2 promotion match and upcoming 3 pm Champions League Match. 

Updated record:  8-1-1, - $10,250.00

As I stated in my analysis earlier, the Liga 2 match is going exactly how I expect it.  Should end either 0-0 or 0-1 / 1-0.  Either way, i will look to hit an Under 1.5 or Under 2 for 1- 2 K on this match.

[Alternatively, if theres two goals, leading to a 1-1 scoreline by minute 65, i would hit the Under 3.5 or the Under 3 Late. [72 - 77] minute.

Cheers.