Soccer, Money & Wisdom

Mr Black, Ganda, Ben, Boll, My apologies guys. it was my response which started all this. what did I just step into?

Wolverhampton get saved on penalty.   Huge save.  

Thoughts at HT.

Shakhtar v Basel -  this match has played to the line movement.   Early goal, and this game is wide open.  I pwuld expect to see more goals come second half.  I am not making a play on this game.

WolverHampton v. Seville

This game is playing to the odds for the under.  The penalty save could have altered that.  Penalties, and goals for hlthat matter, change games.  The failed conversion of the best scoring opportunity is a huge indicator that, come second half, this will be an under / draw match.  

Pending a set piece, free kick masterpiece  or another penalty, i do not see an open play goal here.

If this is tied in 75th minute, I will hit the Under 1 or Under 1.5 Hard, just like Man United match yesterday!

Cheers

WolverHampton 

Under 1.5 @ -505. 

10,100 to win 2K

This will be nail biter now with this 88th minute goal.  

To Conclude :

This match played out exactly how thought it would.   Low scoring, limited opportunities.   Only real chances came from a penalty (missed)  and a set piece goal.

Sometimes you have nail biters at the end, which is why I'm glad I executed on qn Under 1.5 wager.  I always allow myself a "buffer" which is to say, an Under 1 to push or the extra goal.  

3-0. 

Wow great call mr 

Discovery Channel has Shark week and Covers has tard week.

Thank you!  I look forward to discussing soccer with you all!  I'm watching the MLS final!

3-0, + $5,500

Taking Portland Timbers ML @ -500 

5,000 to win 1,000.

4-0, +$6,500.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Good morning everyone!  A wonderful day awaits with 1 Champions League single leg match today.  I am looking forward to this match.

At first glance, people may be tempted to take PSG.  They are a solid team, and one of the favorites to progress to the Final.  However, do not sleep on the Italians.  Atalanta have impressed this season in Serie A.  They have scoring potential, and, they easily could get the first goal in this match, putting the pressure on PSG and going into a defensive shell.  This is not Atalanta's Forte - defense.  If they concede first, they will probably lose this match.  Atalanta are already an attack minded team, so to concede and chase a game to PSG will give PSG even more space.  This game could easily be 2-0 PSG or 2-1 PSG by the HT whistle.

That said, this is the BIG stage.  This is the Champions League, and both teams will be motivated.  Atalanta would not be wise to play an open and attacking style.  This type of match, pits an underdog team, in a single led tie, against a favored team full of talented players.  Atalanta's manager knows this, and they WILL play defensive - until they cannot afford to.

Alas, I foresee this defensive organization and shape taking place and forcing PSG to break them down.  Once again, this favors (or is at least set up to favor) a low scoring game.  I honestly do not see the first goal from PSG coming through open play.  This is due to the lack of space that Atalanta will give them.  Rather, if PSG score first, it will be off a set piece or penalty.  

I will be watching this match today, with an eye on this defensive shape and organization, and look to hit some Unders, perhaps 1st Half Under 1 or 1.5 depending on what I'm witnessing.  

Shooting for 5-0 today, we'll see what happens!

Cheers!

he was actually starting to make some sense at the beginning; regarding formations, motivation, and creating chances. thought there was going to be an intelluctual conversation. now I realized, he should have stopped at the first post while he was ahead. so ill say my piece and stay out of this. but you know where this is heading.

"Thanks for your comment. Let me shed some perspective on where I'm coming from." its not where youre coming from.... its where youre going. the second I saw that sentence I knew you were here once before

"The success rate on not losing these wagers, is statistically quite high...." success rate means SQUAT when youre playing 4-digit juice.

for arguments sake, i was on Inter too. Had Lever scored late i would have lost - same as you. but then Id only need to win my next game to pull self back into the positive. you? you'd need to win your next 11 straight. but something tells me you dont get that logic.

"Heavy bets are between 10,000 - 20,000. When I state small, mid/medium, large - this is what I mean for future reference." so, right off the bat, you go over your assigned limits? so whats 25,000? Super-Heavy?

"Taking sides means you lose in the long run.."  i beg to differ on this. but we'll save that for another day.  but then you promptly go out and play a -925 & -500? c'mon man. if youre going to give out advice, at least follow it yourself. cause if youre not going to listen to yourself, then why should anyone else?

enough.  back to futbol. 

Thank you for your thoughtful response. 

I meant that taking sides, pre game, is a losing proposition.  I should have clarified to say this:  I will take a side, live, in play, when I feel:

A.  Its in last 10 minutes of match.

B.  I dont think that another goal will happen due to circumstances of match.  (I.e.  a team fighting for relegation, or playing for promotion or champions league spot, or to advance in a cup). 

C.  If another goal happens, the probability is in favor of the winning/leading team, because opposition who is trailing is pushing up pitch for equalizer.  

Thus, the risk i am taking is whether the trailing team (Bayer Lev) in thwt scenario, is going to be awarded a penalty or set piece that undoes my play.  It is a rarity that a goal is scored from open play from the trailing team, unless its a team like Real Madrid or Bayern coming back a goal down on a weaker opponent. 

I fully acknowledge paying "juice" and understand the associated risks with doing so.  However, when you amass a large bankroll, and you are able to lay -1000 or -2000 and win 1K within a 5 - 10 minute span, it is worth it to me.  

It may not be worth it to someone else, and that's ok.  Its a matter of preference.  Like I said, I have been at this 10 years.  I have had my fair share of terrible loses due to last minute goals, corners, penalties, free kicks awarded in dying embers of a match.  I acknowlege that it happens. 

But, along the way, i have learned a lot from these experiences, and with the countless hours I have spent watching matches, you begin to develop a feel of the game and a flow of the match.  I completely acknowledge and understand, nothing is 100%.  Look at Sevilla match yesterday.  I stated pre match, and during match my observation that the game would be an Under, and low scoring.  Barring a penalty (which was awarded and missed) or a set piece.

Low and behold, 88th minute, Seville scores on a set piece.  From that point on through extra time, I acknowledged that my -500 was at serious risk because of a very likely chance that with Wolves pushing to equalize they would either score, or get countered and concede. 

The point is, in soccer, and in life, you can only bring the logic, analysis, "feel" and gut instinct so far.  The game isn't controlled by you, and if a ref awards a meaningless penalty or awards a free kick with 5 seconds left in match, i lose.  

It doesn't mean I wasn't right on target until the very end.... and, the probabilities of me being accurate are quite good.

PSG have had two good chances in first 10 minutes.  Keep an eye on this, because failed attempts to convert, makes thr likelihood of Atalanta learning from their mistakes and tightening up.

The longer this match goes without PSG converting a chance, the more this plays into an Under / Atalanta's favor. 

Hi!  The -500 I referenced was the Under 1.5 I took earlier in the match.   Which was at risk once score was 0-1 on 88th min

Ohhhh boy, PSG are going to feel the pressure.  Atalanta will sit back now.

regards, 

1st Half Assessment:

Well, the course of this game would have been drastically altered if PSG capitalized on those early chances inside of 10 minutes.  

Atalanta nicked a goal off the counter from open play. 

Based of history and experience in these situations, the following scenarios are most likely to occur.

1.  PSG equalizes before the 60th minute, and thr match plays out to a 1-1 draw.

2.  PSG pressure, pressure, pressure and equalize late, maybe 60th - 80th minute.  This completely deflates Atalanta and the momentum turns to PSG who may quickly score a second, making this game 1-2 or even 1-3 (with a PSG stoppage time goal).

3.  Atalanta buckles down, and every 10 minutes without a PSG makes it more likely and likely that this will end 1-0 Or a last gasp goal at ending by either PSG or Atalanta.  

In these scenarios, the under 3 or Under 2.5 as time goes by in 2nd half, will be best value and most likely to win.

Make no mistake about it, the underdog leading here, favors an under because they will hang on to what they have and don't need to score another. 

Locking in 

Under 3 @ - 872 

21,800 to win 2,500

Locking in :  

Under 2.5 @ - 847

21,750 to win $2,500

Very nice use of the buffer my man