Soccer, Money & Wisdom

dont know why im bloody coming in here, had a few mins before the game starts...... like Ben & I brought up, youve been here before......
for fun decided to read this thread again. you keep contradicting yourself.

"I do not play these end of match wagers, as a matter of course. Only in instances when theres a competitive match where something is at stake. I.e. promotion, staving off relegation, advancement in a cup tie, tournament play like Euros, qualifiers or world cup. Not a run of the mill match in Slovakia or Sweden. " then come right back around 10 minutes later and put 21000 in Qatar?? give me a break. 

"I have been in this "game" for over a decade and my experiences have run the gamut........."
Personally, I think this thread is a GREAT EDUCATIONAL TOOL for anyone just starting out with this hobby. so they can see what happens when you continuously risk heavy juice on plays (aka -250, -500, -1000 etc etc).

The more you keep talking with your explanations, the worse it gets. after your opening sentence, you typed this yesterday:
"Chalk it up as a learning experience and move onto the next one."
so youre telling me what happend in the PSG match..... after "being in this game for a decade" and watching thousands of futbol games, as you said from the top ...... was the FIRST time this EVER happened to you and youre using it as a learning experience? (laughing)
any experienced veteran with this hobby KNOWS this is common practically every weekend of the year. so I honestly dont know whom you are trying to impress.

some advice: the reason you are down 15,000 has nothing to do with whats going on in the futbol matches. the reason you are down 15,000 is your lack of discipline/experience.

I asked a friend whom used to work as a statistician, and staticians never really 'retire'. and he has stuff which would make your head spin. though he doesnt gamble, he now spends his time beating the cr*p out of us year in and year-out in our Fantasy League. and he gave me these stats. just a small, small, small sample size of a huge picture which is pretty much the same in every league... everywhere.

so using your criteria:

358. 112. 33.
358 are the total amounts of goals scored in the Champions League this year.
112 (31%) are the total amount of goals scored AFTER the 70th minute in those.
33 (30% of ALL the games. 112 to date) are the total times there were 2+ goals scored after the 70th minute

for the sake of argument, and easier to compute. lets just say your goal is to earn 1000, and you are risking 10,000 each time (aka -1000 line) which is what youve been doing with these 1.5 unders.

youd be in the hole 330,000 right there for those 33 games youve lost. and lets just say you WON all those others. so thats 79 games for a profit of 79,000.

79,000 - 330,000 = UP THE CREEK. but you will SPIN this from here to kingdom come and try to break it down in such a manner that you are miracuously hitting a HIGH percentage of ONLY those games above which win.

but books know this sunshine. and they KNOW these %'s. and they are MORE THAN HAPPY to watch you hit 7-8,9 straight and feel like GOD. cause they know... - as I explained in this very very very small sample of matches above - that in the long run????? UP THE CREEK.

you seriously think you have the advantage using this method? you seriously think books LEAVE these kind of lines up for YOUR benefit?

come on.     geez, stop it with the monopoly stuff. 

and there is no book in Italy whom would allow anyone to place a 5-digit wager on Inter to win when they ARE LEADING at the 75th minute mark. theyre NOT that stupid and will limit, if even bother taking it. 

yes Ben,   where are the mods?   this is like the 4th time. 

Almeria v. Girona 

Locked @ - 1250 Under 2.5

$12,500 to win $1,000

I FEEL LIKE THERE SHOULD BE A WARNING PUT ON THIS GUY'S THREADS/POSTS TO LET NOVICE BETTORS KNOW THAT THIS IS NOT THE WAY TO GO ABOUT GETTING IN THE SOCCER WAGERING HOBBY/BUSINESS. NOBODY SHOULD TAIL THIS GUY'S METHODS OR PLAYS.

"LOOK AT ME, I'VE ONLY LOST ONE GAME AND I'M DOWN $13K!" (GRANTED, IT'S MONOPOLY MONEY) 

THERE IS A REASON THAT NO EXPERIENCED BETTOR HAS EVER USED THIS SYSTEM.

IT DOES NOT WORK.

I chalked up , not the 2 goals scored in 5 minutes extra time.  The fact that I got greedy and instead of being content with my Under 3, which woukd have resulted in a push with no money lost, i went and locked in the under 2.5.

That was my mistake.

Hello!  I am perfectly happy to answer questions and delve into the thought process.  Obviously with limited space, it can be difficult to address all scenarios.  

Let me further explain.  The Qatar match.  I was watching the match live.  I should have clarified this, that all wagers I place, is based on my live watching of the match in real time. 

I was watching the Qatar match and it was 0-0 all game, with limited chances.  Again, I took the Under 1.5, and still won, despite a last minute goal!  

I won't wager on matches in this manner, that I don't watch.  

Hello JimC,

Well, you have only witness a couple day's worth.  Let this system play itself out, and I will show you.  

Recall something, just like everyone who reads up to this point.  I MADE a mistake and pushed the PSG match and got greedy.  You realize, through my own mistake, if I didn't lose that, my deficit would have actually been a Net Profit in almost 5 digits.  

I own that I made the mistake of pressing it, and it cost me and my roll.

RB v. ATM:

This match's best opportunity came from an AM set piece header, which came close to going in.  SO far, this is trending to the Under.  Keep that in mind, I'm likely going to make a 1st half play around the 25th min mark.

This game went according to my analysis.  Goal scored by home in 54th minute.  Stayed 1-0 the remainder of the game.  Additionally, don't get hurt if away equalized in stoppage time because I had the Under 2.5.  Again, this match was obvious that in highly contested, motivational matches for promotion/relegation, teams will be content to just win.  They don't need or care to expose themselves to win by 2 or 3 goals, because that is NOT what is necessary.

9-1-1, -$9,250.00 Moving into the Champions League Play.

PLAY: 

RB v A Madrid

Locked in 1st Half Under 1.5 @ - 1429 

$28,580 to win $2,000.

Hi, just wanted to mention something here.  I use an Offshore Book.  Feel free to confirm the lines using an live odds tracking site, there are plenty of books, especially offshores, that allow live wagering right up to the 90th minute (excluding extra time).  

IF YOU ARE SO SMART, AND YOUR SYSTEM WORKS, ANSWER THIS QUESTION.

WHY IS NOBODY ELSE DOING THIS?

YOU'RE SYSTEM IS DESIGNED TO PAD A WIN/LOSS RECORD WITH MINIMUM ROI AND MAXIMUM RISK.(GRANTED. YOU ARE NOT USING REAL MONEY). THIS IS HORRIBLE MONEY MANAGEMENT AND SHOULD NOT BE FOLLOWED BY ANYONE, NO MATTER THE SIZE OF THEIR BANKROLL.

I will be happy to answer.  

First, Yes, I am using real money.  Betting a wager of 12,500 is 5% of my roll (give or take).  I understand my monetary figure is high, but you should base it on percentages, so it equates more fundamentally to everyone.  Sometime with approximately 25,000 roll, could wager 1,250.   Someone with 2,500 would wager 125.   I'm sure you understand the principle.

I'm not sure you are comprehending the strategy encompasses:

1.  Experience

2.  Watching the matches

3.  Understanding the nature of competitive play scenarios.

4.  Understanding when goals flow from "open play" and when goals are more likely to be off set pieces.  

When I analyze these Unders and take the plays, I'm doing so by stating, that goals are not likely to come from Open Play.  That is not equivalent to saying no goals will happen. 

As we speak, the Champions League match is 0-0 at the Half.

CL Match is 0-0 at HT.  As I indicated, and advised, the best chances came from set pieces.  This will be tight match 2nd half, and would not be surprised if this ends 0-0, or 1-0 / 0-1.  (JUST LIKE ALMERIA MATCH ABOVE!)

10-1-1, -$7,250.00

So which is it?

"But if -13,000 is only 1-2% of my bankroll, then its really just a figure.  "

"betting a wager of 12,500 is 5% of my roll (give or take)"

Another monopoly man outs himself. Go RIP with Packersbackers. This probably his burner account lol

YOU STILL DID NOT ANSWER THE QUESTION.

IF YOUR SYSTEM WORKS (WHICH IT DOESN'T), WHY IS IT NOT USED BY EVERYONE?

Because most people are not in the position to pay for the juice, and pay heavily for it.

RB v AM:

These next 10-15 minutes will determine a lot.  Looking for some good value here.  Similar to Atalanta leading yesterday, Under 2.5 or Under 3 might be great here in next 10 minutes.  AM are not as potent as PSG were.

I like where this is heading.

Again never seen anything similar to this thread here at Covers.

I just ask that I'm judged on my plays.  My roll is mine to win or lose.  

Let us continue!

Elche v. Zaragoza:

1st Half Under 1.5 Locked @ - 1667  

16,667 to win $1,000.

SB v. A Madrid.

Under 4 Locked @ - 2727

27,270 to win 1,000

SB v A Madrid

Under 3 Locked @ - 455

18,200 to win 4,000

YOUR POSTS ARE 100 % COMPLETE BULLSHITT!