PART I: Understanding "Juiced Odds" - Paying a Premium For Time
This is the most controversial subject matter here that a lot of people will disagree with (and that is okay). It's a matter of opinion, of course. The great thing is we can test this theory out, through these documented plays.
What is the difference between a -105 play, and a - 1000 play? What do these odds indicate? Is it probability? No. It's not exactly a simple Yes or No, but a layered approach, and in my opinion, differs by sport being wagered. Meaning, a -1000 ML in the NFL should be treated much differently than a -1000 ML in Soccer. Peeling that back further, a -1000 ML in Soccer is representing something different than a -1000 Under 1 for over/under total goals. The point is, it is not a "one size fits all" approach. It is contextual.
With that understanding, the shift is to focus on what I, as a bettor, am paying for in relation to the following question:
"Will a goal(s) be scored with XX:XX amount of time remaining."
This is the crux of the issue, and the crux of my wagering philosophy.
Soccer is different than all other sports. It relies on one line of demarcation. The GOAL. Namely, scoring (goals) in soccer is far less frequent than any other sport like American Football, Basketball, Rugby, Tennis. In Soccer, Goals are rarities. You will typically get between 1-3 goals a match, on average.
As an under Bettor, what I am paying for is TIME. This is why I bet so late in matches (either in 1st Halves or Full Time).
Let us take an example:
Bettor 1: Pre-Match takes an Under 2.5 @ -110 odds. Risks $1,100 to win $1,000.
Bettor 2 (me): Takes an Under 2.5 @ -2500 odds in the 75th minute with the score (1-0). I risk $25,000 to win $1,000.
What are the pros and cons of doing this? What does Bettor 1 get that I do not if the score is 1-0 in the 75th minute?
Bettor 1 has substantially less at risk of course, for the exact same return. This is obvious, and it is apparent.
Now, if the match ends Under 2.5, both of us win our wager. We both have won $1,000 of these bets.
But... Bettor 1's money was at risk for an entire 75 minutes prior to winning. Bettor 2 (me) had money at risk for only 15 minutes.
This - is paying for the privilege of time.
I am undoubtedly paying a massive premium to be able to place a wager in the 75th minute to win the same amount of money. But, SO MANY events could have happened within that first 75 minutes that could have evaporated Bettor 1's wager. His Under 2.5 could have been blown up in the first half, maybe in the 1st 15 minutes of the game. In fact, by WAITING and Paying the Premium, should the scoreline have changed pre-match from 0-0 to being 1-1 by the time the 75th minute arrives, I could have and would have taken an Under 3 (buffer protection) or even gotten the Under 3.5 for -2500.
The point I am trying to make here (and surely will elaborate on when I have more time and character space) is this: The less time on the clock, the less probability or opportunities for goals to be scored.
This is weighed, then, by other factors such as: Situational awareness; Team in Lead; Team Trailing; Referee tendency to give penalties (i.e. Felix Brych gives a lot); motivational play of players fighting for promotion/relegation/advancement; team playing style and identity; formation, tactics.
These are all intrinsic factors that are weighed PRIOR TO PLACING A -2500 wager in the 75th or 80th minute
Hot Forum Topics
