Soccer, Money & Wisdom

Then all you needed to do was send a message to covers that this guy has multiple accounts.

Good start to day.  Sorry, when i lock in wagers it can be difficult to state the rationale and elaborate.  Perhaps you all can notice with my amount bet, that the 'win' amount of $500 indicates a lower amount bet, because, quite frankly, my confidence in these smaller leagues isn't as much as say La Liga or Premier League or the top tier leagues.

19 - 1 - 2 []  + $3,250. 

I have some time to write up something about my style and why I play the way I do.  Hopefully you will all enjoy it as it gives insight and rationale into my philosophy. 

MY STRATEGY STYLE AND PHILOSOPHY

Preface & Introduction

I finally have a bit of time since starting this thread, so I want to share some of this wisdom with you all so you garner a better understanding of how and why I wager the way I do.  I should state at the outset that, for many individuals on here, you will not like this strategy.  It is not for the faint of heart.  But, with great risk, comes great reward.  I also caution new bettors to soccer, that betting like this only comes with experience.  I am posting my plays, and documenting these plays for the benefit of individuals who wish to 'break the mold" and see a different style of play - one that, in the right hands, can be profitable.  In my opinion, I would only advocate the use of my system under the following conditions: 

(a) You are actively watching the live matches

(b) you have a large bankroll (more on this below)

(c) you play consistently for the long term, and aren't looking to make short-term scores and 'cash out'

(d) you understand soccer from a situational perspective

(f)  You understand the purpose of "large juice" and why one would pay -1000 through - 3000.

I will do my best to elaborate and touch upon why these issues are all important, and likely will have to break this down into Segmented "Chapters" that come in time.  So, please take this as the preface or the "roadmap" / Table of Contents so to speak, as I delve into this strategy, my theory, my history with soccer, my passion for the beautiful game, and - using it as a financial endeavor.  

Lastly, I ask that you all be respectful and facilitate positive dialogue.  I am more than happy to answer specific questions and elaborate, or provide clarification.  But I ask, for mature discussion. I am a philosophical person man by nature, and intrigued by what motivates people.   Naturally, my style of wagering on soccer appears to "buck the trend".  But to be fair, the "normal trend" is to see most people hitting at 50% of below, and that is why books make their money.  Perhaps, my strategy of "bucking the trend" means that as an anomaly, I can provide a new and fresh perspective.

I am also not asking for anything.  If people wish to tail me, do so.  If people wish to see my perspective and previews and thought processes on upcoming big matches, by all means, enjoy.  My perspective comes from that as a natural Live-In Play Under Bettor.  That tangentially segments to me assessing the following question:  What is the likelihood of a goal being scored with XX:XX amount of time remaining.  Essentially, that is the question I'm trying to answer, and that is what I stake my money on.

Over Backers may find extreme value in this thread - because, by process of elimination - If I am talking about or refrain from talking about Unders in a particular match, then I'm clearly not wishing to place a proposition on it because of my hesitancy that the contrary (Over) proposition may hit and expose me.

Cheers!

Had to finally log in and comment.  Hope everyone else is doing well!  You sound a lot like a previous poster DNI that never lost and had the best strategies in the world. There are some boxing matches tomorrow with lines you might like as well.  

HE'S BEEN REPORTED.

HE IS A COMPLETE FRAUD.

PART I:  Understanding "Juiced Odds" - Paying a Premium For Time

This is the most controversial subject matter here that a lot of people will disagree with (and that is okay).  It's a matter of opinion, of course.  The great thing is we can test this theory out, through these documented plays. 

What is the difference between a -105 play, and a - 1000 play?  What do these odds indicate?  Is it probability?  No.  It's not exactly a simple Yes or No, but a layered approach, and in my opinion, differs by sport being wagered.  Meaning, a -1000 ML in the NFL should be treated much differently than a -1000 ML in Soccer.  Peeling that back further, a -1000 ML in Soccer is representing something different than a -1000 Under 1 for over/under total goals.  The point is, it is not a "one size fits all" approach.  It is contextual.  

With that understanding, the shift is to focus on what I, as a bettor, am paying for in relation to the following question:

"Will a goal(s) be scored with XX:XX amount of time remaining."  

This is the crux of the issue, and the crux of my wagering philosophy.

Soccer is different than all other sports.  It relies on one line of demarcation.  The GOAL.  Namely, scoring (goals) in soccer is far less frequent than any other sport like American Football, Basketball, Rugby, Tennis.  In Soccer, Goals are rarities.  You will typically get between 1-3 goals a match, on average.

As an under Bettor, what I am paying for is TIME.  This is why I bet so late in matches (either in 1st Halves or Full Time).  

Let us take an example:

Bettor 1:  Pre-Match takes an Under 2.5 @ -110 odds.  Risks $1,100 to win $1,000.

Bettor 2 (me):  Takes an Under 2.5 @ -2500 odds in the 75th minute with the score (1-0).  I risk $25,000 to win $1,000. 

What are the pros and cons of doing this?  What does Bettor 1 get that I do not if the score is 1-0 in the 75th minute?

Bettor 1 has substantially less at risk of course, for the exact same return.  This is obvious, and it is apparent.  

Now, if the match ends Under 2.5, both of us win our wager.  We both have won $1,000 of these bets.

But... Bettor 1's money was at risk for an entire 75 minutes prior to winning.  Bettor 2 (me) had money at risk for only 15 minutes.  

This - is paying for the privilege of time.  

I am undoubtedly paying a massive premium to be able to place a wager in the 75th minute to win the same amount of money.  But, SO MANY events could have happened within that first 75 minutes that could have evaporated Bettor 1's wager.  His Under 2.5 could have been blown up in the first half, maybe in the 1st 15 minutes of the game.  In fact, by WAITING and Paying the Premium, should the scoreline have changed pre-match from 0-0 to being 1-1 by the time the 75th minute arrives, I could have and would have taken an Under 3 (buffer protection) or even gotten the Under 3.5 for -2500.   

The point I am trying to make here (and surely will elaborate on when I have more time and character space) is this:  The less time on the clock, the less probability or opportunities for goals to be scored.

This is weighed, then, by other factors such as:  Situational awareness; Team in Lead; Team Trailing; Referee tendency to give penalties (i.e. Felix Brych gives a lot); motivational play of players fighting for promotion/relegation/advancement; team playing style and identity; formation, tactics.

These are all intrinsic factors that are weighed PRIOR TO PLACING A -2500 wager in the 75th or 80th minute

PART I:  Understanding "Juiced Odds" - Paying a Premium For Time ~ CONTINUED DUE TO CHARACTER LIMIT OF 4,000

An experienced bettor, with a large bankroll - can win a substantial amount of money (accumulated through 95%+ winning percentages) by picking these spots and paying for "less to go wrong" in the remaining time on the clock. 

This - is the general premise - and one that I hope to illustrate to you all in documenting plays.

The guys a fraud and you can hate him all you want. But when you go from -13K to +2k....that's a 15K profit in one day. Simple math

He's "2K profit" for the week but yes in one day thats a "15K profit" 

Wouldn't sweat it guys he will lose big again soon, the strategy is terrible long term 

This  Spot on brother

CODY...HE WORDED IT THAT WAY ON PURPOSE TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE HE HAD AN OVERALL PROFIT OF 15K. IT'S THE SAME GUY WHO HAS BEEN HERE BEFORE. HE CLAIMS TO HAVE THIS SYSTEM AND PUTS OUT THE SAME BULLSHITT EVERY TIME .

Yeah you right Jim about maybe how he worded it, but lets just sit back and watch the train wreck. We all know its coming lol. I think we see it today 

Inter Turku match.

Locked Under 5.5 goals @ -  1570 in 76th min score 2-2

15,700 to win 1,000

20 - 1 - 2 [] + $4,250.00

Cody, my final thoughts.  get what you mean but yeah. got to side with Jim only because if you go back at the start, I mentioned how his reply looked awful familiar. so it kind of validated my initial thoughts. dont care about his monopoly amounts..... that stuff is relative to ones income and really means squat to me.  besides, quite often those whom place 5-digit wagers in this sport are clueless.  and if you ignore the "fluff" and just focus on what he says, then go see what he does.... youll notice he contradicts himself. practically did this immediately too.

i mean, when you're at halftime and come in an post something to the nature "heres whats going to happen in 2nd half":

a) team A will score

b) team B will score

c) end level

my melon thinking, "ok, hes got it covered"   i mean, what other possiblility is there?    but to come in afterwards and say.... "see, this went exactly as I said...."       ehhh, let him go.  enjoy his stay. 

when you spend soo much time trying to convince everyone that you are experienced.   guess what?    ....   you arent experienced. 

Hi!  BOL today!!!!

Cheers!!!!!

Hello! 

I think you are missing the point.  Depending on which scenario plays out, makes it more likely to make a wager on an in game live wager on an Under.  

For example, if a heavy favorite like Barcelona is playing Leganes, and its 0-0 at the half, then the way I'd approach the live wagering will differ depending on if Leganes scored, or if Barcelona scored the next goal. In one instance, I would play it at all. (Heavy favored, dominant team).  In the other, i would.  (Leganes scoring and playing in a defensive shell).

One needs to understand the likely avenues each scenario presents, and how it implicates the odds market.

Yeah my only point was this. With the bookie I bet with, there is a tally for every day on how you do. His Thursday Tally was +15,000 or whatever it was. For the week definitely only a 2K profit, no one is denying that. Not trying to defend the guy because we all know he is fraudulent, but I didn't think that was too bad what he was saying. Could be wrong, but don't feel need going back to read his fairy tales, and I'm on your side and Jims and everyone else in here. Just waiting for the inevitable to happen. Will happen soon 

Here we go, Barcelona v. Bayern!  

Messi looks motivated.

Barcelona are in trouble 

Wow.... 2 goals in 10 min. 

This, is precisely why I would never bet pre match.  

Live Betting and "paying premium for time" is your best friend.

Or sack up and play O and if you lose you don’t have to fake win next 15 or so bets to get it back.

CHEERS!!!!!!