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***WORLD CUP 2014 Betting Thread***

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Legend
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Posted: #1
With a couple of weeks to go prior to kickoff, I will reserve this thread to place all my World Cup related wagers. My goal is to look for value. I'm looking for pure stats plays, with a focus of going against overvalued public bets. I could not care less who wins the World Cup, as long as I turn a profit at the end of the day. With this in mind please do not come into this thread bashing my bets with nationalistic fervor. I will back a side and just like a jilted wife back the other side the next day.

I will kick off this thread with my top 5 Overvalued & Undervalued teams based ONLY on the prices the books have set;

TOP 5 UNDERVALUED TEAMS

1. IRAN
2. GREECE
3. ECUADOR
4. HOLLAND
5. USA

TOP 5 OVERVALUED TEAMS

1. BRAZIL
2. ARGENTINA
3. BELGIUM
4. RUSSIA
5. GERMANY

Once again this is not to say that the 5 overrated teams are not good, just that there is little to no value betting on them...YET

I'm surprised for the first time in decades England is not overvalued.


 
Legend
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Posted: #2
FUTURES BETS

1. GREECE to Qualify into the Round of 16 @ 3.25/+225

I locked this price in earlier in the day, if you shop around you can get anywhere from +200 to +245. Greece matches up with all their opponents very well and face their toughest game first versus most likely a Falcao less Colombia. The Greeks have never advanced from a group stage in the WC and IMO have a 50% chance of doing so this year. I'm expecting them to stifle the opposition and lock up 2nd in the group
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
FYI

All my futures plays are for  1 Unit
 
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Posted: #4
I like it DJ. One should never underestimate the Greeks when it comes to football 
 
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Posted: #5
Love the disclaimer......

Always appreciate the early thoughts 
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
1. Mexico to Qualify into the Round of 16 @ 2.25/+125

I had Mexico to advance at EVEN money. I simply do not see Croatia doing well as they are a team in decline in form. An inexperienced coach but great player Kovac...barely getting by Iceland of all teams in the playoffs. Riddled with suspensions etc. Cameroon just don't have the quality with an ageing Eto they are also a team in transformation. Mexico should thrive in the climate and qualify.
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
3. Ecuador to Qualify into the Round of 16 @ 2.05/+105

France should lock this group with ease...after we have the Swiss Honduras & Ecuador. I had Ecuador @ 1.80/-125 to qualify as I fancy them higher than the Swiss. Switzerland are young and tough but in South America with the heat & fan support Ecuador should qualify. According to the ELO rankings & SPI rankings Ecuador ranks above the Swiss, they have better pace and a superior attack compared to Honduras & Switzerland.
 
Legend
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Posted: #8
Franz--- hoping your WC wagers CASH
Campo--- I think they have a decent shot at going to the R16 for the first time ever......most likely it could be ugly
 
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Posted: #9
@DJ

Interesting picks, I myself have a very negative attitude towards Greece, maybe just because I am so much against the type of soccer they play (which I will explain later in my futures locked in for World Cup as well similar to your thread). Mexico .. kinda agree, it's 50/50 between them an Croatia in my mind, surely the climate favors them but Croatia have many players hitting their peak of form right now, not least Modric and Rakitic are exceptional right now. While Mexico's expected "star" is Chicarito who has spent the entire season on the bench. I am not sure about their chances but a good value on them agreed

Absolutely love Ecuador, one of my personal favorites in the tournament along with Chile and Portugal. Highly underrated side these Ecuadorians.. feel they can be an unpleasant surprise for many.

BOL mate, always enjoy your threads
 
Legend
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Posted: #10
4. Highest scoring Group G @ 6.50/+550

In a group with Germany/Portugal/USA/Ghana I expect goals. These are all attacking sides that play an open style and IMO should be the most entertaining group to watch. For some reason group B & F are the ones the books like. I guess everyone expects Argentina to beat up on everyone and for the Aussies to get killed by their mates. Love the value here based on team style.
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
sweem--- Modric & Rakitic great players but have had long seasons. I love the way Croatia play but I don't think they should be fav's to advance. Looking forward to your WC thread
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
5. Group B Winner CHILE @ 5.00/+400
6. Group B Winner HOLLAND @ 4.00/+300

Once again a simple value play as I expect Spain and the above 2 teams to battle for top spot trying to avoid Brazil. Both Chile & Holland can get a result versus Spain who might start out slow after a long season & one has to question the motivation of the greatest side in decades who have little left to prove.
 
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Posted: #13
Glad to see similar thinking on Ecuador and Chile. Not very big on Portugal ( no Northern Ireland's here ), Croatia and Mexico.  I get DJ's thinking with Greece, they defend very well, and get results.  I have a few games in my sights for " value "..... Ecuador over Swiss.....Japan over Ivory Coast........and maybe even South Korea over Russia @ 3.70. Its early, but I love the exchange of thoughts.
 
Legend
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by franz555:

Glad to see similar thinking on Ecuador and Chile. Not very big on Portugal ( no Northern Ireland's here ), Croatia and Mexico.  I get DJ's thinking with Greece, they defend very well, and get results.  I have a few games in my sights for " value "..... Ecuador over Swiss.....Japan over Ivory Coast........and maybe even South Korea over Russia @ 3.70. Its early, but I love the exchange of thoughts.


I'm still waiting for teams to be finalized to start betting matches but early on I like

1. Holland +0.5 v Spain. I see a draw here
2. Greece +0.75 v Colombia, once again the masters of the draw the Greeks should keep it tight
3. England PK v Italy neither side will want to lose the opener, have to go with the dog
4. Japan PK v CIV I think a fast Japan could win this
5. Ecuador +0.25, PURE value as a draw at worse is what happens here
6. Iran +0.5 v Nigeria thinking 0-0 here
7. USA PK v Ghana at plus money this is a must win for both sides I see the states as more disciplined.
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
SUMMARIZED FUTURES TO DATE ALL 1 UNIT EACH

1. GREECE to Qualify into the Round of 16 @ 3.25/+225
2. Mexico to Qualify into the Round of 16 @ 2.25/+125
3. Ecuador to Qualify into the Round of 16 @ 2.05/+105
4. Highest scoring Group G @ 6.50/+550
5. Group B Winner CHILE @ 5.00/+400
6. Group B Winner HOLLAND @ 4.00/+300
 
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Posted: #16
DJ ....Agree with all except #2, and I'm not betting against it happening.

 As an aside, I noticed that you mentioned in Sweem's " who are we " thread, that you are in Commodities by profession. I was looking through some old documents a few days ago, in search of my old " self administered RSP"  I had from my days at Garban Intl ( buying some property on Lake Huron later this week with it ).  
Anyway, short story long, I found an old folder from 1984, where I was tracking Cattle Spreads Dec / June. My father gave me one for Christmas,  back when I was 12, instead of those CCM Tacks skates I was hoping for. So I actually raced to the store with my hard earned allowance, to buy The Globe and Mail so I could see if I made money. Yup, gambling was a way of life at a very early age, and the rest is called " Margin Calls " ? Lol
 
Legend
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by franz555:

DJ ....Agree with all except #2, and I'm not betting against it happening.

 As an aside, I noticed that you mentioned in Sweem's " who are we " thread, that you are in Commodities by profession. I was looking through some old documents a few days ago, in search of my old " self administered RSP"  I had from my days at Garban Intl ( buying some property on Lake Huron later this week with it ).  
Anyway, short story long, I found an old folder from 1984, where I was tracking Cattle Spreads Dec / June. My father gave me one for Christmas,  back when I was 12, instead of those CCM Tacks skates I was hoping for. So I actually raced to the store with my hard earned allowance, to buy The Globe and Mail so I could see if I made money. Yup, gambling was a way of life at a very early age, and the rest is called " Margin Calls " ? Lol


Franz-- You remind me of my old friend & mentor a "Dad" to me for over a dozen years, he was German his family only manged to get into Canada pretending to be Polish after WW2. His name was Karl but the monks in school changed it to Charles. His dad was a recon pilot in the war ,owned property in what now is Poland in Pomerania, his family spoke fluent Polish & German. In Canada he worked for Air Canada, traded emeralds in Colombia & eventually became a commodities broker. I was his youngest client at 18 and he took me under his wing convincing me to go into commodities and not law, sadly he passed away last year & life has never been the same......BUT he was the most opinionated hard assed stubborn guy ever....yet a very soft hearted, family first, honorable man........off topic I know... it's just weird how I get the same vibes through your posts as if he faked his death. Anyhow old man, as I said before get your behind to a TFC game & I will tell you how Pep G will ruin Bayern Munich
 
MVP
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Posted: #18
Good stuff DJReally like the Greek/Ecaudor to qualify picks.  I would put Holland and Portugal on my over-valued list.  Also leaning B&H to qualify.  Let the good times roll!
 
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Posted: #19
DJ.......Great story. TFC game......definately ! 

 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:



Franz-- You remind me of my old friend & mentor a "Dad" to me for over a dozen years, he was German his family only manged to get into Canada pretending to be Polish after WW2. His name was Karl but the monks in school changed it to Charles. His dad was a recon pilot in the war ,owned property in what now is Poland in Pomerania, his family spoke fluent Polish & German. In Canada he worked for Air Canada, traded emeralds in Colombia & eventually became a commodities broker. I was his youngest client at 18 and he took me under his wing convincing me to go into commodities and not law, sadly he passed away last year & life has never been the same......BUT he was the most opinionated hard assed stubborn guy ever....yet a very soft hearted, family first, honorable man........off topic I know... it's just weird how I get the same vibes through your posts as if he faked his death. Anyhow old man, as I said before get your behind to a TFC game & I will tell you how Pep G will ruin Bayern Munich
A honest from the heart beautiful story DiamondJack...I too had a mentor who has passed, but still have 2 left ... unfortunately both n Nursing homes one who is 94 has been married 76 yrs to his sweetheart ... who is in the same facility, but the Alzheimers leads her into sad but comical situations....I can't go on at the present.....WIN BIGGGGG!!! 
 
Legend
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Posted: #21
Billy---
Franz---
Pete---


 
Legend
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Posted: #22
7. Group D Winner URUGUAY @ 3.00/+200
8. Group D Winner ENGLAND @ 3.20/+220

A similar play to the one in Group B. Anyone of the 3 could win the group so taking the 2 that there is a little value on and as long as Italy does not win the Group we have a profit.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
cant wait!!!!!!!!!!


in 2010 i placed just 1 wager, very large and won.
but i NEVER do that again

that 90 minutes took 10 years of my life
 
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Posted: #24
Great picks cept the States IMO, I think them not taking Donovan is going to loom over Klinsmans head, and even with Donovan, I think they are out of their league. 

Love the Mexico to qualify, I think they have something to proove to themselves and the doubters. Teams that back door their way into tournaments really have nothing to lose, cuz no body thinks they will do much. 

Like the Greece play, think I might play them to draw + Under every game and 1st half draws. 
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #25
SG---
turf---
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