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World Cup 2014 Thread....

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Posted: #26

Love the value on France.  Like most of your plays, but don't like Switzerland.
 
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Posted: #27
It was 4 years ago that I first discovered who you were as you absolutely killed it in 2010. Here's to another successful run!
 
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Posted: #28
Hi Van, very good post, actually not seen you around before but you seem to be familiar to many in the forum (I'm quite new myself, just over a year). Great post, agree with many things. Only thing I have a different opinion about is the Colombia group, would switch place with them and Greece. Moreover, think Ecuador can steal the second spot ahead of Switzerland. Good analysis though, let's have a good one (:
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Rave_Green:

Hey Vanzack, glad to see you posting for the WC.

 

I recently read thru your manifesto and hot seat threads. Very interesting.

I had a few questions for you, if you don't mind answering. I'll ask them in the hot seat thread, if you have time. Otherwise, no big deal.

 

Good luck in the World Cup.

Go USA.

 

Ask away...  I will always answer....

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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by franz555:

Vanzack,     Some interesting thoughts. Appreciate the time and effort you put in. I think you over valued Portugal, and under valued your USA team. Also like South Korea to make some waves. And that is part of the appeal to such an international extravaganza, anything can happen, and usually does. I look forward to seeing your game by game picks. 

BOL 

Better look a little closer at S Korea...  Not what they used to be.

Only one player is playing at Champions League level.  The quality is just not there.

But who knows...

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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by ShootDaClubUp:

Will u be posting plays on the games 1 day in advance because i am currently in europe on a 6 hr time difference and the betting shops close 4pm in usa eastern time , thanks and gl 

Hopefully much more than 1 day in advance for the group games...

I am working on them now.  As they progress, it gets harder and harder to keep up with the write-ups because I sometimes like to get detailed - but I will have at least the prediction and the bets up early.

GL shootdaclubup...

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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by INVESTINSPORTS:

Van......

Great to see you........your posts and professionalism are truly a breath of fresh air. Thank you so much for posting your ideas, thoughts, etc

I generally mostly pluck out a few halftime totals.....but two plays early....

 

The top African team will be Nigeria at +280...

The top Rest of the World category team Japan at +125

 

I will be peeking in to see how all are fairing.....

Thanks Again

Cheers

Investinsports

Thanks...

Your Nigeria bet is probably a good one.  Cameroon, Algeria, and Ghana are not getting out of their groups.  Nigeria and Ivory Coast have probably about an equal chance to get out - and at +280, it is a good bet.

The issue for you is the dead heat rule if all African teams don't get out.  If no African side gets out of the group - you will divide your stake by 5 and then multiply it by your odds (+280).  So if none get out of the group - you essentially will lose 24% of your original bet.

So if Nigeria does not make it out of the group, you will lose at least 24% of your wager, and the whole thing if another team gets out.  This dead heat rule is very tricky and you should look further in to it....

I do like Japan.

GL in the WC!

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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:


Love the value on France.  Like most of your plays, but don't like Switzerland.

I don't really like Switzerland either.  Just think they get in there by default and then lose in the round of 16.

GL Papashango.

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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:

It was 4 years ago that I first discovered who you were as you absolutely killed it in 2010. Here's to another successful run!

Same to you kittykatz!

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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by sweem:

Hi Van, very good post, actually not seen you around before but you seem to be familiar to many in the forum (I'm quite new myself, just over a year). Great post, agree with many things. Only thing I have a different opinion about is the Colombia group, would switch place with them and Greece. Moreover, think Ecuador can steal the second spot ahead of Switzerland. Good analysis though, let's have a good one (:

Cant really argue about Columbia or Ecuador.

I post less than I used to.  Just an issue of time these days, and I really only bet the two footballs - American Football and Soccer.

GL

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Posted: #36
I'm putting some though and consideration into betting against Colombia and Belgium every game on the handicap. Both teams way overvalued. Any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #37
Thanks for the insightful write ups.

BOL this year!!!  Can't wait for the matches to start! 
 
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Posted: #38
Not good for France...

https://www.espnfc.com/france/story/1865085/france-star-franck-ribery-ruled-out-of-world-cup
 
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Posted: #39
Goodluck!
 
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Posted: #40
 Will be following your W.C. posts . Thanks for your insight .
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Not good for France...

https://www.espnfc.com/france/story/1865085/france-star-franck-ribery-ruled-out-of-world-cup

Yup.  Just seeing this.  Not good.

This is a big impact injury.  Have to think about what reaction I should take....

If you were thinking about taking France - I would wait a day or two - you will probably get better odds on all of their bets...

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Posted: #42

Glad to see your write up V.  Love the World Cup and can't wait to get this started!

 

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Yup.  Just seeing this.  Not good.

This is a big impact injury.  Have to think about what reaction I should take....

If you were thinking about taking France - I would wait a day or two - you will probably get better odds on all of their bets...


Hard to take a team that lost the player of the year that's name is not Cristiano or Messi this year.
 
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Posted: #44
Those rumors about Ribery have been going around for the last week or so, was hoping they wouldn't come to fruition. Have them into the quarters. I'm not giving up hope yet!!
Good luck to you in the tourney Vanzack!
 
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Posted: #45
Awesome preview Vanzack. The World Cup is a special competition.

I don't see France getting by Germany in the quarters. Not enough quality for me when comparing them to the Germans especially now without Ribery. 

I like the Japan team as well but I don't see them winning a knockout game against Italy if that matchup does happen. Italy will probably meet Spain in the quarters and they will bow out at that point. 
 
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Posted: #46
Good luck Vanzack...seeing things in a very similar light to you. I was on the same page about France, but this really hurts. If they can manage to win the group, you get them @ +100 to advance against a Bosnia or Nigeria I think that is still a pretty likable price for that. Although I do like this Bosnia team quite a bit, might be some value in taking a shot on them, especially with the Ribery injury.

 
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Posted: #47
no ribery it seems does that worry you about france? or do you think Greizmann steps in and shouldn't affect them much?
 
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Posted: #48
Japan's recent form has looked great. I hate playing squad's with the 'eye test', but they look dynamic and well glued. It's hard not to take hot teams peaking at the right time.

Really liking Portugal. Just seems like their time, no? A peaking Ronaldo and a team with motivation (after years of international disappointment) seem like an ample recipe for success. Add in the fact the majority of the players play against (or with) each other in talented domestic (and neighboring La Liga) league and it just looks even better.

Portugal.



Good luck this year!
 
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Posted: #49
Zut alors!!!!

 
 
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Posted: #50

Was watching the Germany game and Marco Reus had a pretty nasty ankle turn.

It did not look good at all.

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