World Cup 2014 Thread....

Hey guys...  Just getting back from a weekend vaca...

Yes - very concerned about Shirikov.  Very concerned about Ribery.  But all of my bets will go as planned for now...

I am not big on worrying about the weather.  It is there for everyone.  I don't think that I would ever make a bet based on speculation of who will handle it better - but certainly if I see something I will adjust accordingly.  But total crystal ball stuff is not what I like to do....

Working on first round game write-ups as we speak.  Should have something up by tomorrow.

Thanks everyone for the comments - I will be much more active now that I am locked in for the WC...

Kapono - a note about lines and what I actually bet....

I have learned at my time here at covers that the best strategy to help people bet is to round things off, make them simple, and post widely available lines at American facing sportsbooks (like 5d for example).  If I post a bet that I make on Betfair or Pinnacle it doesn't do everyone here a whole lotta good.

So when I post units and bets - they are pretty close to what I am actually doing - but not exact.  Sometimes I do worse, sometimes I do better (more often better than worse because of the availability of books that I have).

It makes things livable here at covers.

Thursday June 9

Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) – The opener has the hosts against a Croatia side without their starting striker Mandzukic (out with suspension from qualifiers).  I love when motivations align – and this is a nice spot for both teams to come away happy.  Brazil will be happy with a win, any win – and Croatia will be happy with a close loss.  I fully expect Croatia to defend and counter – with Brazil having all of the possession and chances.  I will take my chances that the goal comes late enough that it turns in to a possession-fest for Brazil – and both teams wind down a 1-0 Brazil win.   Opening round games are usually tight and played in midfield – so unless Brazil convert a lot of chances – see this going under the 2.5.

I liked Croatia at +1.5 at around even money which was to be had a few weeks ago, but I think that ship has sailed now and am not interested in paying around -130 for the goal and a half.  Predicted final score Brazil 1-0.

Yes definitely.

And I would bet as much as you can, and then go bet Brazil -1.5 at about +110 and voila - free money.

But if you are just looking to bet a side, I think Croatia +1.5 at anything less than -105 or so is a good bet.  Nothing to go overboard about - but definitely a bet.