A million thanks in advance for all the work you put in.
I loved the question that Nepatriots asked and wanted to get your opinion on that. I know you will be sticking with your current wagers but if you were going to be putting down all of your bets tomorrow how would you approach France? Would you still make all of the same wagers you currently have involving them? Would you scale back units on any of the plays?
Yes, I will keep my bets and I would bet them again - just at better odds now....
I would love that Ribery were there - but I didn't bet on them for just one player - I think that the road they have is set up for them - they should win the group and then either have Bosnia. Then the qtrs. where anything can happen - including buying out of the bet.
So I would bet it again.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
A million thanks in advance for all the work you put in.
I loved the question that Nepatriots asked and wanted to get your opinion on that. I know you will be sticking with your current wagers but if you were going to be putting down all of your bets tomorrow how would you approach France? Would you still make all of the same wagers you currently have involving them? Would you scale back units on any of the plays?
Yes, I will keep my bets and I would bet them again - just at better odds now....
I would love that Ribery were there - but I didn't bet on them for just one player - I think that the road they have is set up for them - they should win the group and then either have Bosnia. Then the qtrs. where anything can happen - including buying out of the bet.
And I would bet as much as you can, and then go bet Brazil -1.5 at about +110 and voila - free money.
But if you are just looking to bet a side, I think Croatia +1.5 at anything less than -105 or so is a good bet. Nothing to go overboard about - but definitely a bet.
yes,trying to find it now.thanks for the reply
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Yes definitely.
And I would bet as much as you can, and then go bet Brazil -1.5 at about +110 and voila - free money.
But if you are just looking to bet a side, I think Croatia +1.5 at anything less than -105 or so is a good bet. Nothing to go overboard about - but definitely a bet.
Yikes, Sorry Van, Zamigo, etal........betting on under 2.5 on Brazil's opening game against Croatia seems " highly illogical ", as Spock would say. Goals matter ! Brazil has a wealth of offensive talent. Croatia aren't known for superior defensive, rather their offensive exploits. I'm very curious as to any reasoning you might offer.
Here is my reasoning...
Croatia does not need to beat brazil to go through
Croatia does not need to tie brazil to go through
That being said goal differential is very important to them and if they can devise a plan to lose 1-0 or 2-0 they will...1-0 is a very good result...2-0 is acceptable but not great...0-0 would be excellent...Mandzukic is suspended and that limits them on offense even more so they will likely play even more defensively understanding that it will be difficult to score and that this will open things up for Brazil
For Brazil, say what you want but tie breaker really should not matter. They will get AT LEAST 7 points and they will take 1st place. The mindset they will bring into this game is PATIENCE. When you are the team to beat you know teams will make a gameplan like this and try to frustrate you but the key is to stay patient and find the goal without conceding anything on the counter attack.
The reason it is such a strong wager is because of Croatia's mindset. Even if they allow a first half goal they won't go crazy trying to get back in the game because truthfully 1-0 is a solid result. Brazil certainly won't expose themselves because if they get 3 points against the 2nd choice team in the group they have done their job.
The most probable outcomes that I can see are 1-0, 2-0
GL either way Franz
Now that I've done my write up I am going to copy and paste it into my thread
sorry for taking up your space Vanzack
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Quote Originally Posted by franz555:
Yikes, Sorry Van, Zamigo, etal........betting on under 2.5 on Brazil's opening game against Croatia seems " highly illogical ", as Spock would say. Goals matter ! Brazil has a wealth of offensive talent. Croatia aren't known for superior defensive, rather their offensive exploits. I'm very curious as to any reasoning you might offer.
Here is my reasoning...
Croatia does not need to beat brazil to go through
Croatia does not need to tie brazil to go through
That being said goal differential is very important to them and if they can devise a plan to lose 1-0 or 2-0 they will...1-0 is a very good result...2-0 is acceptable but not great...0-0 would be excellent...Mandzukic is suspended and that limits them on offense even more so they will likely play even more defensively understanding that it will be difficult to score and that this will open things up for Brazil
For Brazil, say what you want but tie breaker really should not matter. They will get AT LEAST 7 points and they will take 1st place. The mindset they will bring into this game is PATIENCE. When you are the team to beat you know teams will make a gameplan like this and try to frustrate you but the key is to stay patient and find the goal without conceding anything on the counter attack.
The reason it is such a strong wager is because of Croatia's mindset. Even if they allow a first half goal they won't go crazy trying to get back in the game because truthfully 1-0 is a solid result. Brazil certainly won't expose themselves because if they get 3 points against the 2nd choice team in the group they have done their job.
The most probable outcomes that I can see are 1-0, 2-0
GL either way Franz
Now that I've done my write up I am going to copy and paste it into my thread
geezus,hold the phones! Van that +112 was for 1.25 NOT for 1.5.Almost made both wagers for what we thought was guaranteed money and thank goodness i always recheck my wagers,my local was 1.25.Damn soccer,gotta be careful.Soory for that mixup.
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geezus,hold the phones! Van that +112 was for 1.25 NOT for 1.5.Almost made both wagers for what we thought was guaranteed money and thank goodness i always recheck my wagers,my local was 1.25.Damn soccer,gotta be careful.Soory for that mixup.
Hopefully Jurgen is either watching or about to read what I am going to write...
You know who is BOTH the YOUNGEST and SMALLEST team in the WC? Ghana.
And you know how to beat these guys? In the air and with diagonal runs and through balls. Keep sending guys through. I would start my speediest lineup up front, and I would take advantage of that zig zag defensive line I am seeing out there. Try it 10 times, you got at least 1 one on one. Bradley can send in those balls he was doing so masterfully against Nigeria.
Come on Jurgen. Im here. Give me a call. We can do this.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Watching the Ghana / S Korea game....
Hopefully Jurgen is either watching or about to read what I am going to write...
You know who is BOTH the YOUNGEST and SMALLEST team in the WC? Ghana.
And you know how to beat these guys? In the air and with diagonal runs and through balls. Keep sending guys through. I would start my speediest lineup up front, and I would take advantage of that zig zag defensive line I am seeing out there. Try it 10 times, you got at least 1 one on one. Bradley can send in those balls he was doing so masterfully against Nigeria.
Come on Jurgen. Im here. Give me a call. We can do this.
Croatia does not need to beat brazil to go through
Croatia does not need to tie brazil to go through
That being said goal differential is very important to them and if they can devise a plan to lose 1-0 or 2-0 they will...1-0 is a very good result...2-0 is acceptable but not great...0-0 would be excellent...Mandzukic is suspended and that limits them on offense even more so they will likely play even more defensively understanding that it will be difficult to score and that this will open things up for Brazil
For Brazil, say what you want but tie breaker really should not matter. They will get AT LEAST 7 points and they will take 1st place. The mindset they will bring into this game is PATIENCE. When you are the team to beat you know teams will make a gameplan like this and try to frustrate you but the key is to stay patient and find the goal without conceding anything on the counter attack.
The reason it is such a strong wager is because of Croatia's mindset. Even if they allow a first half goal they won't go crazy trying to get back in the game because truthfully 1-0 is a solid result. Brazil certainly won't expose themselves because if they get 3 points against the 2nd choice team in the group they have done their job.
The most probable outcomes that I can see are 1-0, 2-0
GL either way Franz
Now that I've done my write up I am going to copy and paste it into my thread
sorry for taking up your space Vanzack
I agree with this. Add to it that this Brazil squad is rock solid on defense - and maybe not as creative as Brazil squads of old.... Low scoring low tempo opening game.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:
Here is my reasoning...
Croatia does not need to beat brazil to go through
Croatia does not need to tie brazil to go through
That being said goal differential is very important to them and if they can devise a plan to lose 1-0 or 2-0 they will...1-0 is a very good result...2-0 is acceptable but not great...0-0 would be excellent...Mandzukic is suspended and that limits them on offense even more so they will likely play even more defensively understanding that it will be difficult to score and that this will open things up for Brazil
For Brazil, say what you want but tie breaker really should not matter. They will get AT LEAST 7 points and they will take 1st place. The mindset they will bring into this game is PATIENCE. When you are the team to beat you know teams will make a gameplan like this and try to frustrate you but the key is to stay patient and find the goal without conceding anything on the counter attack.
The reason it is such a strong wager is because of Croatia's mindset. Even if they allow a first half goal they won't go crazy trying to get back in the game because truthfully 1-0 is a solid result. Brazil certainly won't expose themselves because if they get 3 points against the 2nd choice team in the group they have done their job.
The most probable outcomes that I can see are 1-0, 2-0
GL either way Franz
Now that I've done my write up I am going to copy and paste it into my thread
sorry for taking up your space Vanzack
I agree with this. Add to it that this Brazil squad is rock solid on defense - and maybe not as creative as Brazil squads of old.... Low scoring low tempo opening game.
geezus,hold the phones! Van that +112 was for 1.25 NOT for 1.5.Almost made both wagers for what we thought was guaranteed money and thank goodness i always recheck my wagers,my local was 1.25.Damn soccer,gotta be careful.Soory for that mixup.
Yeah - be careful. Big difference in how you bet soccer.
The over under for threads titled: "I bet XXXXX. It was a draw but I lost my bet. Is this right?" is about 100 for the WC.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by tonydan:
geezus,hold the phones! Van that +112 was for 1.25 NOT for 1.5.Almost made both wagers for what we thought was guaranteed money and thank goodness i always recheck my wagers,my local was 1.25.Damn soccer,gotta be careful.Soory for that mixup.
Yeah - be careful. Big difference in how you bet soccer.
The over under for threads titled: "I bet XXXXX. It was a draw but I lost my bet. Is this right?" is about 100 for the WC.
My book offers -600 that there isn't a first time winner. So Brazil, Germany, Spain, France, England, Italy, Argentina, or Uruguay wins it all. +400 for field.
Belgium, Portugal, Colombia, Russia, and Netherlands would be top contenders. Based on your write up the -600 seems like an option, although I don't know if I can bring myself to take anything that pricey.
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My book offers -600 that there isn't a first time winner. So Brazil, Germany, Spain, France, England, Italy, Argentina, or Uruguay wins it all. +400 for field.
Belgium, Portugal, Colombia, Russia, and Netherlands would be top contenders. Based on your write up the -600 seems like an option, although I don't know if I can bring myself to take anything that pricey.
Don't like the under on the Brazil game. I understand what you and some others are saying but this game can EASILY have 3 goals in the first half let alone the whole game. An early goal will murder this under imo and I expect one, Croatia lost one of their best defenders which doesn't help the under. Also, Brazils confederations cup games 4 of the 5 went over, they scored 4 goals on Italy and 3 goals on Spain. Lots of reasons to go over or just stay away imo. I don't LOVE the over but I do hate the under, and one last thing I heavily expect Croatia to net 1, but I still think brazil can put a 3-0 or 4-0 up.
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Don't like the under on the Brazil game. I understand what you and some others are saying but this game can EASILY have 3 goals in the first half let alone the whole game. An early goal will murder this under imo and I expect one, Croatia lost one of their best defenders which doesn't help the under. Also, Brazils confederations cup games 4 of the 5 went over, they scored 4 goals on Italy and 3 goals on Spain. Lots of reasons to go over or just stay away imo. I don't LOVE the over but I do hate the under, and one last thing I heavily expect Croatia to net 1, but I still think brazil can put a 3-0 or 4-0 up.
Yikes, Sorry Van, Zamigo, etal........betting on under 2.5 on Brazil's opening game against Croatia seems " highly illogical ", as Spock would say. Goals matter ! Brazil has a wealth of offensive talent. Croatia aren't known for superior defensive, rather their offensive exploits. I'm very curious as to any reasoning you might offer.
Franz.......I agree with you i had capped this final at 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, and if Brazil gets 2 in the first half it could get crazy for an important generally tough first round matchup.
Van......I totally respect your reasoning and my predicted score towards an over is just a lean. Im expecting Croatia to play back and after constant bombardment Brazil should crack'em.....again its a lean and I dont like wagering on a contrast in style type game on a total......I understand your reasoning for the under.....
Cash those tickets guys and gals
Cheers
INVESTINSPORTS
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Quote Originally Posted by franz555:
Yikes, Sorry Van, Zamigo, etal........betting on under 2.5 on Brazil's opening game against Croatia seems " highly illogical ", as Spock would say. Goals matter ! Brazil has a wealth of offensive talent. Croatia aren't known for superior defensive, rather their offensive exploits. I'm very curious as to any reasoning you might offer.
Franz.......I agree with you i had capped this final at 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, and if Brazil gets 2 in the first half it could get crazy for an important generally tough first round matchup.
Van......I totally respect your reasoning and my predicted score towards an over is just a lean. Im expecting Croatia to play back and after constant bombardment Brazil should crack'em.....again its a lean and I dont like wagering on a contrast in style type game on a total......I understand your reasoning for the under.....
Just throwing my opinion in the ring, since no one asked.
I think the major difference in Ghana this time around is their group. Still with Germany, but now they have Portugal and USA instead of Serbia and Australia (2010), so will be much tougher to get out of group play. In 2010 they got through on GD vs Australia (who got smoked by Germany). But, that's why they play the games!
That being said, I do really like the Dual Forecast bet with Germany and Portugal at (-120).
Well said, well put, and I do not disagree. However, I do think that the USA is beatable and that Ghana can surprise Portugal with a draw. I also think that there is value in Ghana to advance (+262) at the price, based on my perception that Portugal is over valued and vulnerable.
Either way, I wish you luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
Just throwing my opinion in the ring, since no one asked.
I think the major difference in Ghana this time around is their group. Still with Germany, but now they have Portugal and USA instead of Serbia and Australia (2010), so will be much tougher to get out of group play. In 2010 they got through on GD vs Australia (who got smoked by Germany). But, that's why they play the games!
That being said, I do really like the Dual Forecast bet with Germany and Portugal at (-120).
Well said, well put, and I do not disagree. However, I do think that the USA is beatable and that Ghana can surprise Portugal with a draw. I also think that there is value in Ghana to advance (+262) at the price, based on my perception that Portugal is over valued and vulnerable.
Ghana goal. S Korea again totally disorganized at the back. And it doesn't help that they have relatively zero threat up front.
Russia, Russia, Russia.....
Bought Russia over Korea at ten units at +114 with the draw a few weeks ago. Glad to see you agree, and thanks for sharing your hard work. It is greatly appreciated, win or lose.
I wish you (and by extention, me) the best of luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Ghana goal. S Korea again totally disorganized at the back. And it doesn't help that they have relatively zero threat up front.
Russia, Russia, Russia.....
Bought Russia over Korea at ten units at +114 with the draw a few weeks ago. Glad to see you agree, and thanks for sharing your hard work. It is greatly appreciated, win or lose.
I wish you (and by extention, me) the best of luck.
Have a good feeling about that bet myself - Portugal WC winners, are to me a good try, have also stated this in my own thread with a Writeup on Why Portugal will win. Would be curious to hear Vans angle on this as well, as my money are already locked in on Portugal to an awesome price in my eyes.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Any thoughts?
Have a good feeling about that bet myself - Portugal WC winners, are to me a good try, have also stated this in my own thread with a Writeup on Why Portugal will win. Would be curious to hear Vans angle on this as well, as my money are already locked in on Portugal to an awesome price in my eyes.
This result should inform bettors on both sides of the equation.
How ?
It was a nothing game, played by non starters for the most part. Should we assume that Italy will lose by 3 or 4 goals each round robin game ? I mean they did tie Luxembourg 1 - 1.
Don't get caught gauging teams based on a friendly, it will cost you a bundle.
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Quote Originally Posted by yestoeverything:
Ghana 4 - Korea 0
This result should inform bettors on both sides of the equation.
How ?
It was a nothing game, played by non starters for the most part. Should we assume that Italy will lose by 3 or 4 goals each round robin game ? I mean they did tie Luxembourg 1 - 1.
Don't get caught gauging teams based on a friendly, it will cost you a bundle.
No other team relies on one person more than Portugal. As Ronaldo goes, so goes Portugal.
Just look at Euro 2012. This team played 4 games - and scored 0, 3, 2, and 0 goals in those games. And it really has to do with Ronaldo and how well he can create chances.
On the national team - he almost exclusively plays on the left side and plays with high tempo. This means he almost never plays defense (you can read some of my anger at this in the Euros here at covers) - which sometimes leaves acres of space in the Portugal left side midfield for the opposition to exploit. But when he gets a quick turnover - or a direct pass - he has one thought and that is to get it quickly to the penalty box and usually means he is going to take the chance. Postiga is the striker on this side - and is not world class - and Nani is usually on the right side - which means that Ronaldo being selfish is usually actually what is best for Portugal as a team.
Largely - the side is unchanged in since Euro 2012 and even WC 2010. Defense and midfield are solid. Coaching is solid.
But this creates lots of inconsistency. They can be great or horrible. In betting terms - this means high variance. They could make a big run or bomb out early. I wouldn't be surprised with either.
The Ronaldo injury must be played with caution here. Because he is so important, and because this injury has indeed kept him out of training and warm up - who knows. Do you want a Portugal future if he goes out in the first game and is ruled out of the WC? I sure wouldn't.
My opinion is that even if Portugal make a run - tactically - they are easy to dissect for a talented team and they will get picked off. Double Ronaldo, use the space behind him, and keep attacking the Portugal left side. That is how you beat this team. But as they showed against Spain in Euro 2012, they do have the ability to change tactics and play a defensive game (they held Spain to 0-0 and took it to penalties).
Portugal is best suited against a team that wants to play high tempo (Sweden in the playoffs, Denmark at Euro 2012). I think they will win their games 3-2 and lose their game(s) 1-0.
I think there are better options to go further in the tournament at similar prices. I don't see them getting past Argentina in the semis.
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Alright here are my thoughts on Portugal...
No other team relies on one person more than Portugal. As Ronaldo goes, so goes Portugal.
Just look at Euro 2012. This team played 4 games - and scored 0, 3, 2, and 0 goals in those games. And it really has to do with Ronaldo and how well he can create chances.
On the national team - he almost exclusively plays on the left side and plays with high tempo. This means he almost never plays defense (you can read some of my anger at this in the Euros here at covers) - which sometimes leaves acres of space in the Portugal left side midfield for the opposition to exploit. But when he gets a quick turnover - or a direct pass - he has one thought and that is to get it quickly to the penalty box and usually means he is going to take the chance. Postiga is the striker on this side - and is not world class - and Nani is usually on the right side - which means that Ronaldo being selfish is usually actually what is best for Portugal as a team.
Largely - the side is unchanged in since Euro 2012 and even WC 2010. Defense and midfield are solid. Coaching is solid.
But this creates lots of inconsistency. They can be great or horrible. In betting terms - this means high variance. They could make a big run or bomb out early. I wouldn't be surprised with either.
The Ronaldo injury must be played with caution here. Because he is so important, and because this injury has indeed kept him out of training and warm up - who knows. Do you want a Portugal future if he goes out in the first game and is ruled out of the WC? I sure wouldn't.
My opinion is that even if Portugal make a run - tactically - they are easy to dissect for a talented team and they will get picked off. Double Ronaldo, use the space behind him, and keep attacking the Portugal left side. That is how you beat this team. But as they showed against Spain in Euro 2012, they do have the ability to change tactics and play a defensive game (they held Spain to 0-0 and took it to penalties).
Portugal is best suited against a team that wants to play high tempo (Sweden in the playoffs, Denmark at Euro 2012). I think they will win their games 3-2 and lose their game(s) 1-0.
I think there are better options to go further in the tournament at similar prices. I don't see them getting past Argentina in the semis.
Bet365 is offering run-of-the-mill prices for outright win
4.00 Brazil
5.00 Argentina
23.00 France etc etc
However my stake on 'outright winner' will be refunded if the team I back to win it all, is eliminated during a penalty shootout.
Strictly using this angle, which of the teams on your bracket are most likely to get to one or more penalty shootouts during the playoffs, and/or lose in one?
Despite your write-up I like Brazil to take the trophy. Would you say there's a fairly high chance this defensive-minded squad will keep a couple of clean sheets in this tournament and maybe face a penalty shootout vs. France or Argentina?
Any comments are much appreciated. I am considering making Brazil a (very) large bet, based on the availability of that refund.
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Bet365 is offering run-of-the-mill prices for outright win
4.00 Brazil
5.00 Argentina
23.00 France etc etc
However my stake on 'outright winner' will be refunded if the team I back to win it all, is eliminated during a penalty shootout.
Strictly using this angle, which of the teams on your bracket are most likely to get to one or more penalty shootouts during the playoffs, and/or lose in one?
Despite your write-up I like Brazil to take the trophy. Would you say there's a fairly high chance this defensive-minded squad will keep a couple of clean sheets in this tournament and maybe face a penalty shootout vs. France or Argentina?
Any comments are much appreciated. I am considering making Brazil a (very) large bet, based on the availability of that refund.
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