World Cup 2014 Thread....

Friday June 10

Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) – See this line and total as being just about right.  Think the most likely result is a draw here, so would also advocate the draw at about +215 or so but will have my money on Cameroon.  I think size in the air and speed in transition might just be the undoing of Mexico – and while the Cameroon drama of not wanting to get on the plane scares me – the drama and pressure of Mexico make me feel at ease.  Mexico has been in horrendous form as of the last year or so – and I just don’t see how they flip the switch.  Predicted final score Mexico 1 Cameroon 1.

Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) – I have been back and forth on this game for about a month now – not on who I like but on how much I like them.  As I wrote in my preview, this is a game for the lovers of tactics out there – possession vs counter at its finest.  I am sticking with my gut here and my belief that Diego Costa will make a big difference up front for Spain – and they will turn the 70% possession in to goals.  The Dutch will be playing defense – but I don’t see where they have it to withstand the pressure for 90 minutes.  For me – I land right in the middle of my wager size I had considered for this game – and probably close to my max for a first round game…  Predicted final score Spain 2 Netherlands 0

Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit) – I am a little concerned about laying so much chalk in a first round game, but this is as nice of a spot to do it as any.  Chile will attack all game.  It is 90 minutes of hell for the opponent.  Australia has a new squad with a really bad run of form – and Chile will know that goal differential in this first game might be the difference in getting out of this group.  They wont be happy with a 1 goal win.  Mismatches all over the field, but laying the -218 to take back something on a 1 goal win….  Predicted final score Chile 3 Australia 0.

Very interesting...

And at first thought I have no idea how to play it.

I would say if you like Brazil, can get Brazil at +300 and get your money back if you lose in penalties - that sounds like a pretty damn good deal.

OK - can see this question coming...  Nothing personal as I know a lot of people are new to betting soccer....  So I will write this with the thought of cutting and pasting as the question comes again.

In soccer handicaps, you can have half goals, and you can have whole goals.  For instance, a team can be -.5 goal or -1 goal or -1.5 goals.  This is pretty easy to understand.

But because goals are at such a premium, and the difference sometimes between -.5 and -1 is so great - the handicaps are sometimes "-.5 AND -1".  This is a single bet where half of your wager goes on -.5, and half goes on -1 BOTH AT THE STATED ODDS.

So if a team is PK and +.5 -101, this means if you bet 101 total - you would have 50.50 on PK and 50.50 on +.5.

Some example scores:

Draw means you would push on the PK bet but win the +.5 bet.  So you would profit 50 on a 101 bet.

A win means you would win both bets, profiting 100 on a 101 bet.

A loss means you lose both bets, losing 101.

Correct.

GL

The article states -- The 2014 World Cup in temperature terms will therefore be similar to the three North American World Cups – Mexico in 1970 & 1986, and the USA in 1994 – where matches were played in extreme heat and humidity, and perhaps not coincidentally where the Europeans have also failed to win.

The Europeans didn't win.  But they were 2nd place in each of those finals. Not only that, in USA, Europeans were also 3rd and 4th place (Swedes and Bulgarians).  So 3 of the 4 semi-finalists came from Europe in '94. 

I am curious which teams are likely to do better in higher heat/humidity venues.  African teams? 

Smallest as in short? The Ghana players looked 3-4 inches taller than the SK players.