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World Cup 2014 Thread....

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Legend
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Posts: 59684
Posted: #776

Game Bets:

10.5-12.5 - 17.63 units up, 23.85 units down

 

Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) - LOSS

Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) - LOSS

Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit) - WIN

Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit) - LOSS

Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit) - WIN

Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units) - WIN

Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units) - WIN

France / Honduras - No bet

Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - WIN

Germany / Portugal - Under 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - LOSS

Iran / Nigeria - No Bet

Ghana / USA - over 2 and 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - WIN

Belgium / Algeria - Under 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - LOSS

Brazil / Mexico - Brazil -1.5 +100 (3 units) - LOSS

Russia / S Korea - Russia to win +125 (2 units) - LOSS

Australia / Netherlands - Australia +1.5 and +2 +100 (1 unit) - WIN

Spain / Chile - No Bet

Croatia / Cameroon - Croatia -160 (1.5 units) - WIN

Colombia / Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast PK and +.5 +107 (2 units) - LOSS
England / Uruguay - Uruguay PK and +.5 +103 (2 units) - WIN
Greece / Japan - Greece PK and +.5 +103 (1.5 units) - HALF WIN

Italy / Costa Rica - Italy -1 -110 (2 units) Italy to win -190 (1 unit) - LOSS
France / Switzerland - France to win -130 (1.5 units) - WIN
Ecuador / Honduras - Honduras +.5 and +1 +105 (1 unit) - HALF LOSS
Argentina / Iran - NO BET
Ghana / Germany - Germany -1.5 -105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
Bosnia / Nigeria - Under 2.5 -112 (1.5 units) - WIN


Belgium / Russia - Belgium to win -103 (3 units)
Algeria / S Korea - Algeria PK and +.5 -110 (2 units)
Portugal / USA - USA +.5 and +1 (1 unit)

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Captain
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Posted: #777
In your preview of the groups, you picked Russia to win the group, and I think even made a wager on it.

Obviously if Belgium wins the game, Russia can't win the group.  Why the switch to Belgium for this game?
 
Legend
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Posts: 59684
Posted: #778

Belgium / Russia - Belgium to win -103 (3 units) - The worry here being a Belgium backer is that Russia will do what Algeria did so well for 60 minutes and that is pack back and play 9 men behind the ball packed back.  Belgium had some real problems breaking down Algeria and looked vulnerable on the counter attack.  But when Belgium brought in their size with Fellaini and Origi - that all changed and Belgium looked like their wing play and crosses would finally pay off which produced the first goal.  Belgium were lucky to win sucking Algeria in to attack mode and then getting a turnover and space and a quick breakaway goal. 

Russias lack of threat going forward in their first match against S Korea was evident.  The loss of Shirikov is a big blow - and one that was really evident - there was no playmaker who could lead the attack.  It was a lot of hit and hope - and the goal came from a total scrappy situation. 

Both of these teams are best on the counterattack - they will look to play similar styles - but this bet is based on a talent mismatch more than anything else.  I am less concerned that Russia can get behind Belgium because of an overall lack of pace, and if they have to use a build up in midfield - I really like my chances with Belgium on the counter.  My fear is a 0-0 game - but I like Belgium to get a few - especially if the first comes early....  Predicted final score Belgium 2 Russia 0

Algeria / S Korea - Algeria PK and +.5 -110 (2 units) - Algeria will feel very unlucky to not get a result against Belgium.  They had them where they wanted them - and they fell in to the trap and let them off the hook.  I am sticking to my guns on S Korea even after the draw with Russia - they have really poor talent and I just don't know where the goals will come from.  Their goal against Russia was a gift, and they squandered most of their other chances with really poor finishing which has become a trademark of this side.  Algeria plays good enough defense to not allow many chances - and their counterattack could be dangerous.  I see a low scoring midfield battle - and I will take the odds here as I see this as a close to even PKem game.  Predicted final score Algeria 1 S Korea 1

Portugal / USA - USA +.5 and +1 -110 (1 unit) - This line has me confused.  If this was the first game of the group, then fine - I get it - but there is no ignoring what happened to Portugal in the last game.  Besides getting shellacked - they lost possibly 5 of their starters against Germany.  Pepe (maniac) is out, Coentrao is out, Almeida is out.  Bruno Alves is questionable - and starting GK Rui Patricio is also questionable.  That cannot be overlooked.  That is possibly 3 of the starting back 4 from the Germany game out.  Add to this that Ronaldo is somewhere less than 100%.

The US under Klinsmann have worked to play a more free flowing style - looking to attack with speed - and work the ball in short passes rather than the long balls of old.  He put in this "diamond" midfield to open it up and allow Michael Bradley to play with more space while also protecting the defense with a holding midfielder (Beckerman in game 1).  So what happens with the Jozy Altidore injury without a real suitable replacement?  Johansson or Wondolowski? 

I think the key to this game for Klinsmann is understanding the attack of Portugal will be very narrow without Coentrao.  The Coentrao injury for me is the biggest miss for Portugal as he supports Ronaldo on the left side and gets forward in to the left wing on attack.  Without him and his width - I feel the US should start Beckerman and Jones and sit them right on top of the defense - basically playing 6 narrow defenders.  This leaves Ronaldo and Nani and whoever they play at striker in a bad situation and the US always with numbers advantages.  Make Portugal beat you up the middle because I do not believe they will be able to do it on the wings.

I would also play Dempsey up top alone, and bring in Zusi and Diskerud to support Bradley and COUNTER ATTACK THE LEFT SIDE OF PORTUGAL.  Ronaldo simply does not play defense - this naturally creates space on the left as will the Coentrao injury and that is where the US will find opportunities.

So the US with 6 narrow defenders frustrate the hell out of Ronaldo & Co, and we counterattack down the left and eventually score.

Are you listening JK?  I hope so.  If so, the US come out with a low scoring W and go on to the group stage.  If we try to play open, and leave space for Ronaldo and Nani - we will be in trouble and possibly heading home.  Predicted final score USA 1 Portugal 1

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #779
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

In your preview of the groups, you picked Russia to win the group, and I think even made a wager on it.

Obviously if Belgium wins the game, Russia can't win the group.  Why the switch to Belgium for this game?

I made a wager on it too.

But like I have said many times in here - you watch and learn.  I also bet Japan to win the group but bet against them against Greece.

I got Russia at +240 before the tournament - and thought that was a good price at the time.  But at this time, I do not feel like Russia has a 50% chance of a draw or win in this game against Belgium, so I bet Belgium.

My future bets are turning out to be total garbage - and is probably going to be an anchor on me for this tournament - but that doesn't mean I should be married to them and throw good money after bad.  I bet value at the time I bet it.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #780

This is fantastic.

I love the fat Americans watching the foosball.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPhroNXrxvw

"Soccer simply lacks the drama or violence to draw American viewers"

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 4717
Posted: #781
Bosnia seemed to get shafted by that offside call on their goal. Then they don't get the foul called on the other end when Nigeria scores minutes later!

That's a rough way to go out.


Nice call on the under.
 
MVP
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Posted: #782
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

This is fantastic.

I love the fat Americans watching the foosball.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPhroNXrxvw

"Soccer simply lacks the drama or violence to draw American viewers"



Funny but I have tried to recruit friends to watch but since they have never played the sport. Have a few that have takin a liking it to me but I get the same. Why the flopping, how does a ref call a foul on somebody that screamed in pain. 
I thought it was great, late in the Nigiara game a player went down in so much pain. The ref came up to him and you could read his lips. It was like get up your fine. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #783
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I made a wager on it too.

But like I have said many times in here - you watch and learn.  I also bet Japan to win the group but bet against them against Greece.

I got Russia at +240 before the tournament - and thought that was a good price at the time.  But at this time, I do not feel like Russia has a 50% chance of a draw or win in this game against Belgium, so I bet Belgium.

My future bets are turning out to be total garbage - and is probably going to be an anchor on me for this tournament - but that doesn't mean I should be married to them and throw good money after bad.  I bet value at the time I bet it.


Well said.  

I like Belgium tomorrow as well.  BOL.  
 
Prospect
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Posts: 309
Posted: #784
Russia +75% value according my system
 
Prospect
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Posts: 431
Posted: #785
Oust JK and Van for 2018 US Coach...lol
 
Prospect
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Posts: 394
Posted: #786
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Belgium / Russia - Belgium to win -103 (3 units) - The worry here being a Belgium backer is that Russia will do what Algeria did so well for 60 minutes and that is pack back and play 9 men behind the ball packed back.  Belgium had some real problems breaking down Algeria and looked vulnerable on the counter attack.  But when Belgium brought in their size with Fellaini and Origi - that all changed and Belgium looked like their wing play and crosses would finally pay off which produced the first goal.  Belgium were lucky to win sucking Algeria in to attack mode and then getting a turnover and space and a quick breakaway goal. 

Russias lack of threat going forward in their first match against S Korea was evident.  The loss of Shirikov is a big blow - and one that was really evident - there was no playmaker who could lead the attack.  It was a lot of hit and hope - and the goal came from a total scrappy situation. 

Both of these teams are best on the counterattack - they will look to play similar styles - but this bet is based on a talent mismatch more than anything else.  I am less concerned that Russia can get behind Belgium because of an overall lack of pace, and if they have to use a build up in midfield - I really like my chances with Belgium on the counter.  My fear is a 0-0 game - but I like Belgium to get a few - especially if the first comes early....  Predicted final score Belgium 2 Russia 0

Algeria / S Korea - Algeria PK and +.5 -110 (2 units) - Algeria will feel very unlucky to not get a result against Belgium.  They had them where they wanted them - and they fell in to the trap and let them off the hook.  I am sticking to my guns on S Korea even after the draw with Russia - they have really poor talent and I just don't know where the goals will come from.  Their goal against Russia was a gift, and they squandered most of their other chances with really poor finishing which has become a trademark of this side.  Algeria plays good enough defense to not allow many chances - and their counterattack could be dangerous.  I see a low scoring midfield battle - and I will take the odds here as I see this as a close to even PKem game.  Predicted final score Algeria 1 S Korea 1

Portugal / USA - USA +.5 and +1 -110 (1 unit) - This line has me confused.  If this was the first game of the group, then fine - I get it - but there is no ignoring what happened to Portugal in the last game.  Besides getting shellacked - they lost possibly 5 of their starters against Germany.  Pepe (maniac) is out, Coentrao is out, Almeida is out.  Bruno Alves is questionable - and starting GK Rui Patricio is also questionable.  That cannot be overlooked.  That is possibly 3 of the starting back 4 from the Germany game out.  Add to this that Ronaldo is somewhere less than 100%.

The US under Klinsmann have worked to play a more free flowing style - looking to attack with speed - and work the ball in short passes rather than the long balls of old.  He put in this "diamond" midfield to open it up and allow Michael Bradley to play with more space while also protecting the defense with a holding midfielder (Beckerman in game 1).  So what happens with the Jozy Altidore injury without a real suitable replacement?  Johansson or Wondolowski? 

I think the key to this game for Klinsmann is understanding the attack of Portugal will be very narrow without Coentrao.  The Coentrao injury for me is the biggest miss for Portugal as he supports Ronaldo on the left side and gets forward in to the left wing on attack.  Without him and his width - I feel the US should start Beckerman and Jones and sit them right on top of the defense - basically playing 6 narrow defenders.  This leaves Ronaldo and Nani and whoever they play at striker in a bad situation and the US always with numbers advantages.  Make Portugal beat you up the middle because I do not believe they will be able to do it on the wings.

I would also play Dempsey up top alone, and bring in Zusi and Diskerud to support Bradley and COUNTER ATTACK THE LEFT SIDE OF PORTUGAL.  Ronaldo simply does not play defense - this naturally creates space on the left as will the Coentrao injury and that is where the US will find opportunities.

So the US with 6 narrow defenders frustrate the hell out of Ronaldo & Co, and we counterattack down the left and eventually score.

Are you listening JK?  I hope so.  If so, the US come out with a low scoring W and go on to the group stage.  If we try to play open, and leave space for Ronaldo and Nani - we will be in trouble and possibly heading home.  Predicted final score USA 1 Portugal 1

any chance you can explain what it means when you wager on a side with pk and +.5?

 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #787
Van i think Covers needs to send you a big fat check, for the 138,000 views  They can afford it from all the ad revenue
 
Veteran
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Posts: 3557
Posted: #788
Quote Originally Posted by CPA:

any chance you can explain what it means when you wager on a side with pk and +.5?



Asian handicap +0.25. If draw, you win half your bet. Win, you win the full bet.
 
Captain
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Posted: #789
Quote Originally Posted by CPA:

any chance you can explain what it means when you wager on a side with pk and +.5?


It took me a long time to figure this out a couple years ago when I first started betting soccer.  They split your bet evenly between both.  So in this case if you bet 100, 50 would be on pk and 50 on +0.5
 
Prospect
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Posts: 95
Posted: #790
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I made a wager on it too.

But like I have said many times in here - you watch and learn.  I also bet Japan to win the group but bet against them against Greece.

I got Russia at +240 before the tournament - and thought that was a good price at the time.  But at this time, I do not feel like Russia has a 50% chance of a draw or win in this game against Belgium, so I bet Belgium.

My future bets are turning out to be total garbage - and is probably going to be an anchor on me for this tournament - but that doesn't mean I should be married to them and throw good money after bad.  I bet value at the time I bet it.

Regarding your futures, isn't there a line in a film "We'll always have Paris" and we still do. France to win the group, and if they win it all at 19-1 that will go a long way towards redemption.

In addition, Croatia to advance is very much alive.

Deeply disappointed in Japan, as they looked so good heading into the tourney.

As a Ghana fan, I'm glad that it seems they earned a measure of respect today, but the hill is only slightly less steep.

Good luck to your team today, but I hope you understand I must hold my nose and cheer for Portugal.

Thank you for the writeup on Belgium/Russia. Before reading this, I wanted to chase my futures bets, but now I see that you are offering an escape route, or at least reducing exposure.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #791
Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:




I'm wondering how healthy is Ronaldo.
Ronaldo will play according to the latest report. However, his health is the key question.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #792
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I tend to agree...

But - there are some strange possibilities.  What if Spain plays the whole B team?  Guys like Juan Mata?  The guys who barely ever see playing time and might need to impress to be part of the future of the national team?

I just cant pull the trigger yet - but understand why you have.  It makes sense.  But I will wait...

Thanks for the reply.The Spain B team, while talented, may not be well sorted to be thrown on the pitch en masse We didn't see this coming and neither did they. Now more than +800 at pinny.

Australia is like a penny stock tip you get from some dude in a bar whose theory is just crazy enough to be correct.

As I said before, you will not see a better +800 bet on the board for quite some time in any team sport, which does not mean that Australia will win.

It is worth a small play at price.
 
Captain
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Posted: #793
Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:


The line was ridiculous yesterday, -2.25 @ -150 and O3.5 @ + 102. I went ahead and bet it anyway. It's coming down to earth now, -138 and +116 respectively.

If it dares hit -130 and +130 respectively, I'll double my stakes. 

I completely misread the line movement on this one.

48 hours later lines are as follows
-101 for -2.25 (I got the worse of it by almost 50 cents... which is hard to do if you tried)
+123 for O3.5 (moved against me by 20 cents).

So I'm holding two very poorly priced tickets at the moment. Will need to get very lucky.
 
Captain
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Posted: #794
Quote Originally Posted by SG99:

Russia +75% value according my system

 
Prospect
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Posts: 362
Posted: #795

Quote Originally Posted by SG99:

Russia +75% value according my system

Well, somebody has to say it...

I'll be watching this system closely.

Gl today Van,

 
Prospect
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Posted: #796
I have Algeria +44% value
 
Prospect
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Posted: #797
USA +31% value

Statistic, sometimes just statistics dont work. Betting isnt that easy
But we have Van!!

 
Captain
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Posted: #798
Quote Originally Posted by HatOnBed:

Well, somebody has to say it...

I'll be watching this system closely.

Gl today Van,

ROFL!!! 

I do not watch systems very often, but when I do, I prefer the coin flip!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #799



 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 423
Posted: #800
boy we need this one
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