World Cup 2014 Thread....

Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:

vanzack...  Great read. I check in every day. Thanks for your hard work. I emailed the link to your post to the guys at work who aren't on Covers. They love it. 

Thanks T6....

I tend to agree...

But - there are some strange possibilities.  What if Spain plays the whole B team?  Guys like Juan Mata?  The guys who barely ever see playing time and might need to impress to be part of the future of the national team?

I just cant pull the trigger yet - but understand why you have.  It makes sense.  But I will wait...

It is a GH sighting!  Welcome to the jungle.

Hard to argue.  But Argentina will play best in space - and I am not sure Iran will do anything except play very compact with 8 guys near the box.  Can Argentina break that down?  Sure.  But can they do it 3 times?  That is the question...

GL

Game Bets:

9.5-11.5 - 16.13 units up, 21.35 units down

Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) - LOSS

Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) - LOSS

Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit) - WIN

Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit) - LOSS

Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit) - WIN

Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units) - WIN

Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units) - WIN

France / Honduras - No bet

Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - WIN

Germany / Portugal - Under 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - LOSS

Iran / Nigeria - No Bet

Ghana / USA - over 2 and 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - WIN

Belgium / Algeria - Under 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - LOSS

Brazil / Mexico - Brazil -1.5 +100 (3 units) - LOSS

Russia / S Korea - Russia to win +125 (2 units) - LOSS

Australia / Netherlands - Australia +1.5 and +2 +100 (1 unit) - WIN

Spain / Chile - No Bet

Croatia / Cameroon - Croatia -160 (1.5 units) - WIN

Colombia / Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast PK and +.5 +107 (2 units) - LOSS
England / Uruguay - Uruguay PK and +.5 +103 (2 units) - WIN
Greece / Japan - Greece PK and +.5 +103 (1.5 units) - HALF WIN

Italy / Costa Rica - Italy -1 -110 (2 units) Italy to win -190 (1 unit) - LOSS
France / Switzerland - France to win -130 (1.5 units) - WIN
Ecuador / Honduras - Honduras +.5 and +1 +105 (1 unit) - HALF LOSS

Saturday June 21

Argentina / Iran - NO BET - This is really a tough one to read.  In their first game, Argentina came out surprisingly defensive - playing essentially 5 at the back for the first half.  It clearly wasn't working as there was not enough support up front for Aguerro and Messi - and Bosnia actually played better even though they were losing 1-0 on the own goal.  At HT - Argentina brought in Higuan - and it all changed back to normal.  So when analyzing their future - I will exclude this first half because I don't think we will se this tactic again.  My expectation - based on what I saw against Nigeria and the fact that they are playing Argentina - is that Iran will sit back and play 9 or even 10 behind the ball and pack back and defend.  They cant press.  They cant play a high line.  So this matchup comes down to a couple of very basic factors - can Argentina have the creativity to break down a packed in defense?

This is clearly something Japan was totally unable to do against Greece - and I expect similar from the opening whistle from Iran.  So for betting purposes - the time of the first goal and the shape of Iran after the first goal will decide the winner of the spread bet.  Will Iran continue to play defense while down 1-0?  You could make the argument that they will play for goal differential and hope to go in to the last game against Bosnia with a chance.  But if they break the defensive mold - and attack - it could get very ugly very fast.  Argentina has the offensive firepower to score as much as they want.  Predicted final score Argentina 2-0.

Ghana / Germany - Germany -1.5 -105 (2.5 units) - I really hate laying the goals - and with such a public team as Germany - but feel like this spot is a good one to do it.  Ghana has to be emotionally drained after the USA game - to fight back for 80 minutes only to have it snatched away.  Ghana clearly made some tactical errors at the beginning - like not starting Boateng - and there was much made about an apparent player revolt the following days against the coach and then an official "there was no revolt" statement by the Ghana FA.  I don't like how that smells.

Germany showed against Portugal just how dangerous they are.  They have really taken on a Spanish flair for me - playing without a true striker - and working quick passing in tight spaces.  They have the players to pull it off too.  And against Ghana - I just cant see the Ghana defense staying totally disciplined for 90 minutes - as we saw in the USA game - it only took 2 defensive lapses and it was all over.  Ghana looked totally inept at breaking down a packed back US defense - it seems as if the counter-attack in space is their only true danger - and the possession play of Germany should stifle that quite a bit.  If they cant get the ball - they cant counter - and frustration and rough play is probably the result.  Predicted final score Germany 4 Ghana 1

Bosnia / Nigeria - Under 2.5 -112 (1.5 units) There was a great scouting example of Bosnia from the Argentina game.  The first half - they played very well - created chances - and really won the half when Argentina were in a defensive (5 back) posture and lineup.  When that switched at HT to a more traditional 4 at the back and they had to deal with 3 forwards on attack - they were almost blitzed off of the pitch.  Of course - there is a class difference between Argentina and Bosnia - but it was clear that Bosnia were uncomfortable when Argentina was in attack mode.

Nigeria on the other hand has shown absolutely nothing in attack in their game against Iran, and really nothing in attack in any international play recently.  They cant seem to find their identity.  Their midfield cant link up their speedy forwards - and their wingbacks have been totally ineffective. 

I see a midfield dominated game with few chances - and while there is some scoring quality on Bosnia - there is very little on Nigeria other than breakaway potential.  Predicted final score Nigeria 0 Bosnia 1

I liked them a lot better at 25-1. 

I wouldn't bet them at +750.  Although - as I stated at the beginning - they will have a nice draw to get to the quarters (probably Bosnia). 

They have looked great so far - but wins against Switzerland and Honduras are different than playing Germany, Brazil, Argentina...  Even Belgium or Chile.

But I like my position right now.

Soccer is pretty simple sometimes.

If you want to defend, and your sole goal is to not let the other team score - it is very difficult for your opposition to break that down.  Not impossible, and certainly with enough time and chances it will happen - but what you are seeing in the first half is that the worlds best attackers cant break down a packed in defense that is very mediocre at best.

That's why I find it so tough to bet on games like Arg / Iran.  The sole decider of these kinds of contests is how early Argentina will break down the Iran defense - and the response of Iran when they do.  Does Iran attack when they are down 1-0 or do they continue to defend?  Who knows, but that can be the difference between a 1-0 final or a 4-0 final.

Games for Sunday June 22...

Writeups coming....

Belgium / Russia - Belgium to win -103 (3 units)
Algeria / S Korea - Algeria PK and +.5 -110 (2 units)
Portugal / USA - USA +.5 and +1 (1 unit)

Good Stuff, Van..  It is absolutely staggering to see the quick downfall of this Spanish Team.  The first hint was in last year's Confed. Cup against Brazil when they conceded three goals, but I don't think anyone saw what was to follow in these two WC games against Chile & Netherlands.   Just terrible, and appears an end to a dynasty.

Hey, I have had plenty of them so far....

Better luck.

Iran had their scoring opportunities in today's game, and could have amazingly walked away with a win here.  That would have been stunning.     What seemed to change was in the 85th minute with Argentina's two substitutions .   They went on the attack and came away with the win.

Argentina to me seem too top-heavy with the talents of Messi (and he's scored "all 2"  of their goals so far).  Saw way too many careless mistakes , and poor attacking,  for all the attention this  Argentina team gets.  Iran  could have easily walked away with a win here.     IMHO, you  may get some value "against" Argentina as we roll forward in knockout rounds. 

Plus, the commentators were mentioning there should've been a penalty kick awarded to Iran between the 65-80th minute (I forgot when it exactly happened).  Game would've been much different if that was properly called.