World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....

Interestingly enough....

Teams in the last 3 world cups who have won a penalty shootout are 0-7 in their next game.

Teams in the last 5 worlds cups (back to 1994) who have won a penalty shootout are 2-10 in their next game.

Game Bets:

18.5 - 21 

-4.34 units

Futures:

-6.5 units

Pending:

France to win WC +2500 (1 unit)
France to reach quarterfinals +100 (1 unit)

Mexico / Netherlands - Mexico PK and +.5 +102 (1 unit), Mexico to advance +160 (1.5 units) - I said this at the beginning of the tournament in my preview:  "I don’t really see how Mexico just suddenly flips a switch from their horrendous qualifying campaign."  It is clear now that that was misguided.

Mexico's success can be largely attributed - once again - to their 3 man defense with speedy wing play.  It is concerning that they only scored 4 goals - although they probably had 2 in the Cameroon game that should have counted.  But they didn't score against Croatia until late when Croatia was in attack at all costs mode, but eventually got 3 goals. 

This is going to be an extremely interesting tactical matchup as Louis Van Gaal has proven to be the tournaments chameleon - and to great success - altering his tactics drastically in every game and changing personnel to match the style.  We might see both sides take the 3 man defense approach - which will be decided down the flanks - but I think the Netherlands will come out with a high line with 4 in the back and challenge Mexico to get in behind them - like they played against Spain.

The Netherlands weakness is clearly on defense - and although they swept their group play - you can point to the Australia game to show just how much trouble the Dutch had defending outside in attacks.  If the Mexicans can get space and speed down the wings - which I believe they will - they should have lots of success against a Dutch defense that struggles against this exact type of play.  On the opposite side of the pitch - RVP is back and so is Robben - and they have proven to be very dangerous - but the key to stopping them is playing a little bit more compact and central on defense and not allowing the 50 yard runs that they have been able to make on defenses allowing them space by playing high lines.  I assume Mexico will know this - and will be well scouted on not allowing the Robben cut ins or RVP to have space inside the box.  Let the other guys beat you - and let the Dutch beat you by either crosses - but do not let them get in behind you.

I see this as a very even match, and possibly extra time and PK's.  Just think the Dutch are getting too much love in the betting line based on their 3 impressive wins....  Predicted final score 1-1 in 90, Mexico advance in ET or PK's.

Greece / Costa Rica - Greece PK +116 (.5 unit) and Greece to advance +110 (.5 unit) - What can you say about this one?  It is definitely the stinker of the round of 16, and should be a very tight low scoring game decided by one or two events.  There is not a big tactical battle in this one - it is going to be defense first and counterattack second for both.

This is a line play for me on a coinflip type of game.  CR has a speed advantage up front but Greece have the experience at sitting back and counterattacking - so if CR get too adventurous they could easily get punished.  Just cant see this being anything but a 1 goal game.  There are better wagers ahead....  Predicted final score Greece 1 CR 0

France / Nigeria - France -1 -124 (4 units) - This will be a big one for me, my biggest bet to date.

For me, France outclasses Nigeria at every position.  And this is a great tactical matchup for the French as well - as they are able to deal with defending the Nigerian speed very well.  The danger on Nigeria is Musa - his change of pace and high gear are a threat to any defense - but once again the Nigerian finishing leaves a lot to be desired.  They scored the least amount of goals in their 3 group games (3 goals) excluding Greece of all of the teams who advanced to the round of 16 - in a group where it has to be said that they should have scored more.

France on the other hand leads the WC in shots taken and shots on target.  Unfortunately for them - they took all of their shots in the Ecuador game right at the GK.  They are loaded with talent and options - and can adapt and play any style that suits them with the personnel to adapt.  France should dominate possession, and create plenty of chances.

This one is less about tactics and more about personnel, speed, talent, and quite simply goal scoring ability.  France wins with ease - Predicted final score France 3 Nigeria 0

Algeria / Germany - Over 3 goals +102 (1.5 units) - Algeria scored 6 in their first 3 games, scoring at lest one in each match - in a group that was really quite defensively minded.  They have really proven to be tactically adaptable - changing drastically from their first to their second to their third game - rotating half the team and playing vastly differently.  The one constant is the ability to be dangerous on attack - and vulnerable on counterattack.  Even in the game (Belgium) where they were most defensive minded, and played sitting way back - they scored one and allowed 2 - and there could have been more. 

What is there to say about the Germans.  I think by now everybody gets it.  I do not think they will be held at bay for 90 minutes even if that is what Algeria chooses to do - which I don't think they will do.  I expect Algeria to attack - really to counterattack - like they did against S Korea - it really is their only chance.  But that leaves them very vulnerable at the back - and it should allow Germany plenty of space.  The US / Germany game showed me something - for the first 15 minutes the US back line was packed back all the way in to the box - and in the first fifteen minutes there were about 5 good German chances on goal.  Algeria will know that they wont be able to pull off this tactic for 90 minutes - but at the same time - they do not have the defense that the US has.

What they do have is speed.  So I expect a classic possession controlled short passing team to dominate possession and then a team looking to counter fast - but Algeria just doesn't have the talent to pull it off.  They will get down - and then it will be attack - and that's when the goals come.  Algeria has had a great run and should be commended - but this is where it ends for them...  Predicted final score Germany 3 Algeria 1.

If you want to hear some epic goal calls - check out the Colombian TV announcers...  Especially the second goal...

https://screamer.deadspin.com/the-james-rodriguez-wondergoal-as-called-on-colombian-1597472344

Lots of people on the Dutch today.