2010 NCAA Fave/Over - Dog/Under % Correlation Parlays Thread

I would be curious if vegas would take these bets.

couldn't find it.....got a link or anything?

is there any online books that still take those? please PM me if you dont want to post.

Thanks

Again, no!  Need a local

Quote Originally Posted by jkp714:

Im looking for a full game to wager on. I understand how  the system  works. butt im having some trouble with the math   I I will put dog/under in one casion &the fav/over in another casion

Spread/Total = > 40%  

This thread is to talk about winners, losers, games with the system and areas where we can IMPROVE the system.  Not to answer a thousand questions. 

The creator the thread, powerade, stated at the beginning that questions will not be answered and Kirby has stated whitakp thread explains the system. If you can't find it..search his name and go through his recent posts. 

I will attempt to break it down here, so all of us cashing in the system can enjoy this thread. If I am missing something, Powerade, Kirby, Milky...please chime in and add or correct me. 

1.  This system was developed for full games.  Kirby and Milky and a few others play 1h and have had success. I only play full games, b/c I can only play full games with my local, but also to limit risk.

2. We have concluded and tested...NO online books take these bets.  YOU NEED A LOCAL TO TAKE THESE BETS.  Online books have been burnt on this system and have caught on to it.  Additionally, it doesn't make a difference if you play one parlay with one book and other other with another book.  Online books will NOT accept any parlays with a 33%< correlated wager btwn the total and the side.  I do not know about Vegas. I go to Vegas twice a year for business, but unfortunately it is not during this time.  I am assuming they do not.

3. The system is simple and hits at very high rate.  This year the system is hitting at 82% (full games).  I believe the system has been back tested at the 33% correlation mark with 65% accuracy.  This system WILL have losing weeks. However, the loss is minimal compared to overall success. Kirby can chime in on the losing weeks.  Negative weeks may be situational.  Thus some negative weeks may be avoided. Nonetheless, the overall success is there, so a couple of bad weeks can be absorbed. There is ZERO capping envolved, the system can be played w/o fear with the LARGEST wagers one can afford.  

4. This is a two parlay system for NCAAF (some are testing it in NFL at different parameters....I don't play NFL so I am unsure of the success rate) .

A. I believe the system was developed on if the spread is 33.3% of the total = a play.  We have come to conclusion that 40%+ deems better results. 

Thus....

spead / total * 100  > 40% = system play.

B. Two separate parlays, the first parlay is the Fav and OV and the second is Dog and UN.

C. Payout is as following.. Now my local does not charge juice on a loss but is figured in on the payout like normal online books.

100:260. 

Ex.  I play 300 a parlay. I have come to conclusion after I have taken a shit load of money from him in the last 3 weeks, he has capped me out at 400.00 a play.  Bullshit, but I will play that amount next week.  Anyway......

2T parlay scenerio: @ 300.00 per parlay.

Team 1 wins: 300 * 2.6 = 780.00

Team 2 loses: -300.00

= 780.00 -300.00 = +480.00 (this is counted as a win)

If both parlays lose...which happens (and is counted as a loss) it is -600.00   

I hope this helps. Again this thread if for improving the system and talking about wins/loses.

Nothing wrong with a light week, my friend!  We care about the % not how many games we play!

Jmon

this week, I am going to tally this years results and start a new thread

true, it will just fill up with people asking about it....

I just hate those damn 45 page threads and this will be going big

Kirby,

I sent you a friend request to you if you don't mind. Just had a quick question for you on totals. I understand your half game bets perfectly. Thanks.