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2011 Opening Game Favorite

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Prospect
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Posted: #26

The copy was from last years opening game blog by therizz

 
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Posted: #27
Hello,

I did not back tested for previous years, but considering therizz did with his system, it should have a very similar performance.

The key on this variation is to avoid the high juice on the first game of the series (that will be at least -145) and only 2 games to chase at a better winning percentage, but obviously a lot fewer units will be gained in the year compared to the original version, but that can be offset increasing the units size per play. Just my two cents.

Personally I started the original therizz system to have a some action early in the season, but i might be leaning towards the variation as the season goes by to avoid the high juice in some games. I will also be sharing a system using Sagarin ratings that made like 50 units last year at over 67% ratio, playing home dogs...i'll just let around three weeks so Sagarin computer is able to gain enough information.

GL everyone!
 
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Posted: #28
In the variation do you chase starting the 2nd game even if the first game would have won? Also is the Sagarin a chase system?Thanx
 
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Posted: #29
No. You start the chase in the 2nd game if the first game loss. And the Sagarin isn't a chasing system. But you can use a Money Management like labby or anything like it.


 
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Posted: #30

Gentruchi,

Your variation is looking pretty good after yesterdays kick in the teeth!  This will also decrease the number of plays and exposure of your bankroll.

I have a nice buffer in my bankroll because of what I did last year in MLB and in NBA thus far.  I have not increased my base wager size this year being cautious.

Want to warn everybody again bad streaks do happen with this and a large percentage of your bankroll can disappear quickly.  Please proceed with extreme caution.  One year of success is just that and you never know what is going to happen this season.

It still amazes me when the cubs show up as a play for this system!!!  I have a couple filters I have looked into adding but was going to wait a few weeks before I started doing "select series" that passed all the filters in a separate thread.  That may be worth waiting for if you want to try to minimize bankroll exposure this early with volatile bullpens, etc... and before linesmakers get a great feel for these teams.

I decided to just go with it this season from the beginning as it would have done pretty well in past seasons.

 
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Posted: #31

Roguewager,

Thanks for pointing out this guy on SBR posting my system as if it is his own!!!

I don't care if it is posted there but generally you give credit to a systems creator when you do such a thing.  If you can't trust a bunch of gamblers what can you trust

I think maybe they are giving us bad karma.  Hopefully today things turn around for us.  These lines are already blowing up.  I will be splitting plays more than normal to minimize damages.

 
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Posted: #32

Plays for 4/1:

System record 3-0-0                        -7.6U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 3-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#2 (G2) x:xx             sd @ STL - pend sat.

Series#3 (G1) 1:05             hou @ PHI -250, RL    

Series#4 (G1) 2:20             pit @ CHC -172          

Series#5 (G1) 4:10             az @ COL -190, RL      8.5

Series#6 (G1) 7:10             nym @ FLA -169         

Series#7 (G1) 7:10            bal @ TB -187              

-I decided to play cubs, phillies, and rockies on RL

-I played all others on -1 to minimize juice, not a good day/night

  

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 3

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

-7.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/2 AM

Labby Lines

5-5-5-5-22-21        -24, -17, -20, +19, -25  (+19-86=-67)

5-5-5-14-22-21

5-5-5-5

 
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Posted: #33

When I do my labby lines, I cross off my wins first (only one for +19).  This finished off my first line so I brought a new set in.  I then take the losses (-86) split them in half and put half on line 1 and half on line 2.  Normally I would just add them to the last number in the line making:

5-5-5-48

5-5-5-57

5-5-5-5

This is what I call "aggressive labby" but I often split lines or spread the losses around to keep the lines from getting to large.  I never want to wager more than 5U on any given game, so if I am approachning that I just split the numbers to make them more manageable.  Will take more wins to get all my losses back but I will have less risk also.

 
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Posted: #34

Plays for 4/2:

System record 3-0-0                        -7.6U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 3-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#2 (G2) 4:10             sd @ STL - 145

xxSeries#3 (G2) 7:10         hou @ PHI, RL -115    

Series#4 (G2) 1:05             pit @ CHC -190, RL +110          

Series#5 (G2) 4:10             az @ COL -157 , RL+130

Series#7 (G2) 7:10            bal @ TB - 180, RL +110

x- series already won in system on ML, listed for those chasing RL on this series

-Play all games to win 2.6U           

  

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 3

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

-7.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/2 AM

Labby Lines

5-5-5-5-22-21      

5-5-5-14-22-21

5-5-5-5

 
All-Star
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by payday000:

rizz what book do u use to get -1 ... or are you talking about -1.5 ,,,, and if they do not cover the runline but win do you count that as a win or loss??


Friend me and I'll send you the download for RL-1. Just plug in the ML & RL-1.5 numbers. It tells you how much to wager.

 
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Posted: #36
Playing -1 on CHC.  -135 to win 2.6U
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
cisco ... i sent you a friend request... thanks alot .... so dio u end up putting jus a runline bet or play boht ml and runline ... ive been puttin alittle on each to minimize losses and try to maxmize wins
 
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Posted: #38

2.24U on ML

1.27U on RL

 
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Posted: #39
STL line dropping like a stone.... Sharp money and/or Holliday being out??? -119 at my book
 
Prospect
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Posted: #40
The variation style of playing only 2 gm series sounds very appealing...but wondering if its worth it considering you might only have 1/3 of the series to play? thoughts anyone?

Rizz thanks again for all of your hard work. This system + aggressive labby is $$. Everyone just needs to be very cautious for the first 2-3 weeks of the season until we know more about these teams.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #41
do the cubs know they have to score runs to win?
 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by scotth69:

do the cubs know they have to score runs to win?

 

Too damn funny... i post this after the 7th inning when they are getting blanked and they score 5 in the 8th to win it! Nice start for the day to close out a series.

 
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Posted: #43
I  was cursing them the whole game, walked away and checked back. A Miracle.  That might be the last time i bet on the cubs.
 
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Posted: #44

Plays for 4/2:

System record 5-0-0                        -5.3U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 5-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#2 (G2) 4:10             sd @ STL - 118

xxSeries#3 (G2) 7:10         hou @ PHI, RL -115    

Series#4 (G2) 1:05         pit @ CHC -190,RL +110          

Series#5 (G2) 4:10             az @ COL -157 , RL+130

Series#7 (G2) 7:10            bal @ TB - 180, RL +110

          

  

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 3

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

-5.3 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 AM

Labby Lines

5-5-5-5-22-15      

x-x-x-x-x-x-27         -30, +26, +26, +26, -25     (+23)

5-5-5-33

 
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Posted: #45

Plays for 4/3:

System record 5-0-0                        -5.3U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 5-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#2 (G3) 4:10             sd @ STL -160, RL +125

Series#7 (G3) 7:10            bal @ TB - 115, RL +170

-to win 2.2U each.  Will play STL on -1

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 3

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

-5.3 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 AM

Labby Lines

5-5-5-5-22-15      

x-x-x-x-x-x-27        

5-5-5-16-17
 
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Posted: #46

sorry guys, the start times are wrong in the above post.  I played STL -1 (-115) and TB -115 on ML.

Split the last number on line 3 to be more conservative early in the season.  Hopefully the next round of games go better.

 

 
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Posted: #47

Plays for 4/3:

System record 6-0-0                        -5.6U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 6-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#2 (G3) 4:10             sd @ STL -160, RL +125

Series#7 (G3) 7:10            bal @ TB - 115, RL +170

-to win 2.2U each.  Will play STL on -1

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 3

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-5.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 PM

Labby Lines

5-5-5-17-22-15      

x-x-x-x-x-x-27        

x-5-5-16-x-13              +22, -25

 
Veteran
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Posted: #48

Plays for 4/4:

System record 6-1-0                        -5.6U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 6-1

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

*Series#8 (G1) 7:05             min @ NYY-144     10

*Series#9 (G1) 8:05            sea @ TEX -155        9

*Series#10 (G1) 8:15            pit @ STL -155        9

-to win 2.0U each. 

-CHC just missed criteria (pinnacle opened at -140)

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 3

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-5.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 PM

Labby Lines

5-5-5-17-22-15      

x-x-x-x-x-x-27        

x-5-5-16-x-13             

 
Prospect
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Posted: #49
Basically you betting the same game on both teams. One at a higher bet and one at a lower bet, hoping that the higher bet will win?
 
 
Rookie
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Posts: 812
Posted: #50
Hey Rizz, isn't Chi cubs a play? Three game set with Arizona.
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