Posted:
#26
The copy was from last years opening game blog by therizz
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2011 Opening Game Favorite
Posted:
#27
Hello,
I did not back tested for previous years, but considering therizz did with his system, it should have a very similar performance.
The key on this variation is to avoid the high juice on the first game of the series (that will be at least -145) and only 2 games to chase at a better winning percentage, but obviously a lot fewer units will be gained in the year compared to the original version, but that can be offset increasing the units size per play. Just my two cents.
Personally I started the original therizz system to have a some action early in the season, but i might be leaning towards the variation as the season goes by to avoid the high juice in some games. I will also be sharing a system using Sagarin ratings that made like 50 units last year at over 67% ratio, playing home dogs...i'll just let around three weeks so Sagarin computer is able to gain enough information.
GL everyone!
I did not back tested for previous years, but considering therizz did with his system, it should have a very similar performance.
The key on this variation is to avoid the high juice on the first game of the series (that will be at least -145) and only 2 games to chase at a better winning percentage, but obviously a lot fewer units will be gained in the year compared to the original version, but that can be offset increasing the units size per play. Just my two cents.
Personally I started the original therizz system to have a some action early in the season, but i might be leaning towards the variation as the season goes by to avoid the high juice in some games. I will also be sharing a system using Sagarin ratings that made like 50 units last year at over 67% ratio, playing home dogs...i'll just let around three weeks so Sagarin computer is able to gain enough information.
GL everyone!
0
Posted:
#30
Gentruchi,
Your variation is looking pretty good after yesterdays kick in the teeth! This will also decrease the number of plays and exposure of your bankroll.
I have a nice buffer in my bankroll because of what I did last year in MLB and in NBA thus far. I have not increased my base wager size this year being cautious.
Want to warn everybody again bad streaks do happen with this and a large percentage of your bankroll can disappear quickly. Please proceed with extreme caution. One year of success is just that and you never know what is going to happen this season.
It still amazes me when the cubs show up as a play for this system!!! I have a couple filters I have looked into adding but was going to wait a few weeks before I started doing "select series" that passed all the filters in a separate thread. That may be worth waiting for if you want to try to minimize bankroll exposure this early with volatile bullpens, etc... and before linesmakers get a great feel for these teams.
I decided to just go with it this season from the beginning as it would have done pretty well in past seasons.
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Posted:
#31
Roguewager,
Thanks for pointing out this guy on SBR posting my system as if it is his own!!! 
I don't care if it is posted there but generally you give credit to a systems creator when you do such a thing. If you can't trust a bunch of gamblers what can you trust
I think maybe they are giving us bad karma. Hopefully today things turn around for us. These lines are already blowing up. I will be splitting plays more than normal to minimize damages.
0
Posted:
#32
Plays for 4/1:
System record 3-0-0 -7.6U with labby
Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)
All Series 3-0
2 game series: 0-0 (G1=, G2=)
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
Series#2 (G2) x:xx sd @ STL - pend sat.
Series#3 (G1) 1:05 hou @ PHI -250
, RL 
Series#4 (G1) 2:20 pit @ CHC -172
Series#5 (G1) 4:10 az @ COL -190, RL 8.5
Series#6 (G1) 7:10 nym @ FLA -169
Series#7 (G1) 7:10 bal @ TB -187
-I decided to play cubs, phillies, and rockies on RL
-I played all others on -1 to minimize juice, not a good day/night 
2 GameSeries
Interleague Series (0-0) (G1=, G2=, G3=)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins = 3
Game 2 wins =
Game 3 wins =
*Losses =
-7.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/2 AM
Labby Lines
5-5-5-5-22-21 -24, -17, -20, +19, -25 (+19-86=-67)
5-5-5-14-22-21
5-5-5-5
0
Posted:
#33
When I do my labby lines, I cross off my wins first (only one for +19). This finished off my first line so I brought a new set in. I then take the losses (-86) split them in half and put half on line 1 and half on line 2. Normally I would just add them to the last number in the line making:
5-5-5-48
5-5-5-57
5-5-5-5
This is what I call "aggressive labby" but I often split lines or spread the losses around to keep the lines from getting to large. I never want to wager more than 5U on any given game, so if I am approachning that I just split the numbers to make them more manageable. Will take more wins to get all my losses back but I will have less risk also.
0
Posted:
#34
Plays for 4/2:
System record 3-0-0 -7.6U with labby
Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)
All Series 3-0
2 game series: 0-0 (G1=, G2=)
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
Series#2 (G2) 4:10 sd @ STL - 145
xxSeries#3 (G2) 7:10 hou @ PHI, RL -115
Series#4 (G2) 1:05 pit @ CHC -190, RL +110
Series#5 (G2) 4:10 az @ COL -157 , RL+130
Series#7 (G2) 7:10 bal @ TB - 180, RL +110
x- series already won in system on ML, listed for those chasing RL on this series
-Play all games to win 2.6U
2 GameSeries
Interleague Series (0-0) (G1=, G2=, G3=)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins = 3
Game 2 wins =
Game 3 wins =
*Losses =
-7.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/2 AM
Labby Lines
5-5-5-5-22-21
5-5-5-14-22-21
5-5-5-5
0
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by payday000:
rizz what book do u use to get -1 ... or are you talking about -1.5 ,,,, and if they do not cover the runline but win do you count that as a win or loss??
rizz what book do u use to get -1 ... or are you talking about -1.5 ,,,, and if they do not cover the runline but win do you count that as a win or loss??
Friend me and I'll send you the download for RL-1. Just plug in the ML & RL-1.5 numbers. It tells you how much to wager.
0
Posted:
#40
The variation style of playing only 2 gm series sounds very appealing...but wondering if its worth it considering you might only have 1/3 of the series to play? thoughts anyone?
Rizz thanks again for all of your hard work. This system + aggressive labby is $$. Everyone just needs to be very cautious for the first 2-3 weeks of the season until we know more about these teams.
Rizz thanks again for all of your hard work. This system + aggressive labby is $$. Everyone just needs to be very cautious for the first 2-3 weeks of the season until we know more about these teams.
0
Posted:
#44
Plays for 4/2:
System record 5-0-0 -5.3U with labby
Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)
All Series 5-0
2 game series: 0-0 (G1=, G2=)
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
Series#2 (G2) 4:10 sd @ STL - 118 
xxSeries#3 (G2) 7:10 hou @ PHI, RL -115
Series#4 (G2) 1:05 pit @ CHC -190,RL +110
Series#5 (G2) 4:10 az @ COL -157 , RL+130
Series#7 (G2) 7:10 bal @ TB - 180, RL +110
2 GameSeries
Interleague Series (0-0) (G1=, G2=, G3=)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins = 3
Game 2 wins = 2
Game 3 wins =
*Losses =
-5.3 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 AM
Labby Lines
5-5-5-5-22-15
x-x-x-x-x-x-27 -30, +26, +26, +26, -25 (+23)
5-5-5-33
0
Posted:
#45
Plays for 4/3:
System record 5-0-0 -5.3U with labby
Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)
All Series 5-0
2 game series: 0-0 (G1=, G2=)
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
Series#2 (G3) 4:10 sd @ STL -160, RL +125
Series#7 (G3) 7:10 bal @ TB - 115, RL +170
-to win 2.2U each. Will play STL on -1
2 GameSeries
Interleague Series (0-0) (G1=, G2=, G3=)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins = 3
Game 2 wins = 2
Game 3 wins =
*Losses =
-5.3 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 AM
Labby Lines
5-5-5-5-22-15
x-x-x-x-x-x-27
5-5-5-16-17
0
Posted:
#47
Plays for 4/3:
System record 6-0-0 -5.6U with labby
Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)
All Series 6-0
2 game series: 0-0 (G1=, G2=)
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
Series#2 (G3) 4:10 sd @ STL -160, RL +125
Series#7 (G3) 7:10 bal @ TB - 115, RL +170
-to win 2.2U each. Will play STL on -1
2 GameSeries
Interleague Series (0-0) (G1=, G2=, G3=)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins = 3
Game 2 wins = 2
Game 3 wins =1
*Losses = 1
-5.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 PM
Labby Lines
5-5-5-17-22-15
x-x-x-x-x-x-27
x-5-5-16-x-13 +22, -25
0
Posted:
#48
Plays for 4/4:
System record 6-1-0 -5.6U with labby
Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)
All Series 6-1
2 game series: 0-0 (G1=, G2=)
Series Game Time Teams o/u TR diff
*Series#8 (G1) 7:05 min @ NYY-144 10
*Series#9 (G1) 8:05 sea @ TEX -155 9
*Series#10 (G1) 8:15 pit @ STL -155 9
-to win 2.0U each.
-CHC just missed criteria (pinnacle opened at -140)
2 GameSeries
Interleague Series (0-0) (G1=, G2=, G3=)
**meet o/u filter of 9+
TR diffs(for reference only)
Series Prices (for future reference only)
Game 1 wins = 3
Game 2 wins = 2
Game 3 wins =1
*Losses = 1
-5.6 U aggressive labby updated 4/3 PM
Labby Lines
5-5-5-17-22-15
x-x-x-x-x-x-27
x-5-5-16-x-13
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