A conference a day (NCAAF results using Morrison's NFL system)

I wanted to start a new thread based off the "John Morrison" NFL system.  Basically the criteria is this:

1)  Wait for a team to lose 3 consecutive games SU and ATS.
2)  Once the sequence occurs, play as follows:
     a)  If the team on the 3 game ATS and SU losing streak is a favorite, play them on the ML.
     b)  If that team is a dog, play the pointspread, buying a 1/2 on key numbers.
3)  Play a three-game series.

I understand many sportsbooks don't offer ML prices for games with higher spreads, so what I have done is make the cut-off 10 points.  If a team is favored by more than 10 points, then take the spread, buying down 1/2 onto or off of key numbers.

With that said, my goal is to apply the system to all college football teams that qualify. 

Other caviats:
   1)  A series CAN begin with less than 3 games remaining, if it loses out, we take a percentage loss.  Such loss will NOT be included in the stats but will be shown for information purposes.
   2)  If there are unlined games while the three loss ATS and SU pattern forms, or if there are unlined games during the three game series, the series is thrown out.
   3)  Bowl games are NOT included.
   4)  A push during the formation of a three game ATS and SU streak is thrown out, mainly because the ATS is not a loss.  However a push during one or more of the three game series is carried over to the next games.  For example, if a [B] bet pushes, then the following game is a [B] bet.


Every day, I will attempt to post series records for one of the CFB conferences.  All results will be backtested as far back as Covers allows (24 years) and all results will be posted based off Covers' lines.  Hopefully, we can see how the power conferences fare so we know how to play the teams.

For each team, I will break down the total backtested series results, with number of bets won at each of the [A], [B], [C] levels. 



ACC

Boston College (4-0) -  3 [A] wins / 0 [B] wins / 1 [C] win
Clemson (4-0) - 3 [A] wins / 1 [B] win / 0 [C] wins
Duke (6-2) - 4 / 1 / 1
Florida State (1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0
Georgia Tech (3-1) - 2 / 0 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Maryland (8-0) - 5 / 3 / 0
Miami, FL (3-0) - 2 / 0 / 1
North Carolina (3-0) - 1 / 0 / 2
North Carolina State (9-0) - 6 / 3 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Virginia (4-0) - 3 / 1 / 0
Virginia Tech (2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Wake Forest (6-0) - 5 / 1 / 0

Total (53-3) - 37 / 10 / 6

I went through the teams for just last year.... however I didn't include series that didn't have at least 3 games.  It was profitable - but only to the tune of 9 units or so...

Kangy, really good stuff there man.  

Since incomplete series losses don't count in these records, it does count against your wallet.  An incomplete series [A] loss is -1 unit, essentially wiping out a series win.  An incomplete series [B] loss puts you in the hole about 3 units, equivalent of 3 series wins.  Obviously a full loss is roughly 7 units. 


BIG 12

Baylor (6-2) -  6 / 0 / 0 (2 incomplete series losses at [A])
Colorado (4-0) - 4 / 0 / 0
Iowa State (7-3) - 3 / 3 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Kansas (9-2) - 5 / 4 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Kansas State (6-0) - 6 / 0 / 0 (2 incomplete series loss at [A])
Missouri (8-0) - 5 / 2 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Nebraska (2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Oklahoma (2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Oklahoma State (10-0) - 7 / 1 / 2
Texas (1-0) -  0 / 1 / 0
Texas A&M (2-1) - 2 / 0 / 0
Texas Tech (2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0

Total (59-8)
42 games won at the [A] bet
13 games won at the [B] bet
4 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses 

OK, OK, I'm in a groove.  You get a bonus for today. 


BIG EAST

Cincinnati (4-1) -  1 / 1 / 2 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Connecticut (0-0) - Incomplete season data prior to 2000
Louisville (2-2) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Pittsburgh (8-0) - 6 / 2 / 0 (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 1 at [B[)
Rutgers (6-0) - 4 / 1 / 1 (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
South Florida (3-0) - 3 / 0 / 0
Syracuse (6-1) - 4 / 2 / 0
West Virgina (3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0

Total (32-4)
21 games won at the [A] bet
8 games won at the [B] bet
3 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses

Well believe it or not, a lot of the games won on the [A] or [B] bet of an incomplete series.  I'll have the numbers in my next post.

Let me clarify... A lot of the incomplete series have actually won.  But obviously, the first possible series begins no earlier than game 4.  A lot of 3 game SU and ATS losses occurred early enough (say games 5-7, for example) that actually allowed a complete series (e.g. games 8-10) to be played through.  There are also a three-game stretch of SU and ATS losses that occur starting with say games 8-10, which would warrant a play on game 11.  Lot's of times that last game wins, sometimes they lose.  But overall, the breakdown I believe is about 70-30, in favor of full series type wins vs. incomplete series type wins.   If you guys want that information I can include it as part of the daily reports.  I just need a way to present it so it does not cloud the other statistics.  Give me a few minutes here.

 

I have re-posted the first conference which now includes pure series (series where there must be three games in order to chase).  These records will be indicated in RED.  Next to each team, will now be a number in parenthesis indicating number of incomplete series wins.  For example: Boston College is (4-0; 2-0) - 3 (2) / 0 / 1.  This means overall, they are 4-0 (2-0 in complete series chases).  The 3 indicates [A] series wins total, the 2 in parenthesis will not show how many of those three were incomplete wins).  If a qualifying play is the last game of the season, then there will be either an incomplete win at [A] or an incomplete loss at [A].  Not sure how else to describe it.  Hopefully it will make sense as we go along.  Perhaps I would recommend playing an incomplete series this way...  bet normal on [A], if it losses, bet the same amount on [B], to recoup just the losses on [B].  This way, an incomplete series loss at [B] costs you just 2 wins instead of three.  Or just make one bet on an incomplete series [A] if it wins great, if it loses so be it and don't go to a [B] bet. 

I have also included a little feature indicating ratio of incomplete losses to incomplete wins, including a percentage.  The lower the percentage, the higher the profits.  GREEN indicates profit.  An incomplete [B] loss drains your wallet of 3 units if using the Martingale.  So at worse case a 1:3 (33%) breaks even.  Playing an incomplete [A] bet, the break even point is 1:1 (50%).  This should help us judge whether or not long term we should bet [A] and [B] at the end of the season, bet [A] only, or not play the partial series at all.     
 

ACC

Boston College (4-0; 2-0) -  3 (2) / 0 / 1
Clemson (4-0; 3-0) - 3 (1) / 1 / 0
Duke (6-2; 6-2) - 4 / 1 / 1
Florida State (1-0; 0-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 0
Georgia Tech (3-1; 3-1) - 2 / 0 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])
Maryland (8-0; 6-0) - 5 (1) / 3 (1) / 0
Miami, FL (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 1
North Carolina (3-0; 3-0) - 1 / 0 / 2
North Carolina State (9-0; 8-0) - 6 (1) / 3 / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])
Virginia (4-0; 3-0) - 3 / 1 (1) / 0
Virginia Tech (2-0; 2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Wake Forest (6-0; 6-0) - 5 / 1 / 0

Total (53-3)
Record if not including incomplete series (44-3)
37 series won at the [A] bet (7 of these were incomplete series wins)
10 series won at the [B] bet (2 of these were incomplete series wins)
6 games won at the [C] bet
1 incomplete [A] loss
1 incomplete [B] loss 
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  1:7 (14%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  1:2 (50%)

BIG 12

Baylor (6-2; 2-2) -  6 (4) / 0 / 0 (2 inc losses at [A])
Colorado (4-0; 2-0) - 4 (2) / 0 / 0
Iowa State (7-3; 7-3) - 3 / 3 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])
Kansas (9-2; 6-2) - 5 (2) / 4 (1) / 0 (1 inc loss at [A])
Kansas State (6-0; 4-0) - 6 (2) / 0 / 0 (2 inc loss at [A])
Missouri (8-0, 5-0) - 5 (2) / 2 (1) / 1 (1 inc loss at [B])
Nebraska (2-0; 1-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 0
Oklahoma (2-0; 2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])
Oklahoma State (10-0; 9-0) - 7 (1) / 1 / 2
Texas (1-0; 1-0) -  0 / 1 / 0
Texas A&M (2-1; 2-1) - 2 / 0 / 0
Texas Tech (2-0; 1-0) - 1 (1) / 1 / 0

Total (59-8)
Record if not including incomplete series (42-8)
42 games won at the [A] bet (15 of these were incomplete series wins)
13 games won at the [B] bet (2 of these were incomplete series wins)
4 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses 
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  6:15 (40%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  2:2 (100%)





BIG EAST

Cincinnati (4-1; 4-1) -  1 / 1 / 2 (1 inc loss at [A])
Connecticut (0-0; 0-0) - Incomplete season data prior to 2000
Louisville (2-2; 2-2) - 1 / 1 / 0 (1 inc loss at [B])
Pittsburgh (8-0; 7-0) - 6 / 2 (1) / 0 (1 inc loss at [A], 1 at [B[)
Rutgers (6-0; 4-0) - 4 (2) / 1 / 1 (1 inc loss at [A])
South Florida (3-0; 2-0) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0
Syracuse (6-1; 6-1) - 4 / 2 / 0
West Virgina (3-0; 3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0

Total (32-4)
Record if not including incomplete series (28-4)
21 games won at the [A] bet (3 of these were incomplete series wins)
8 games won at the [B] bet (1 of these was incomplete series wins)
3 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete [A] losses
2 incomplete [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  3:3 (100%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  2:1 (200%)


A correction:  The break even point of an incomplete series [A] bet is 1:1 (100%).  So our ratio should be under 100% to make a profit.  The ratio of 1:3 for am incomplete series [B] wager (still 33%) is the breakeven point.  Does this actually help anyone?

So taking the Big East, clearly playing the incomplete series would not be profitable.  Playing the ACC incomplete [A] bets would be more profitable than playing the Big 12 incomplete [A] bets. 

Send me questions if you are confused....  I tried to keep it simple, but I know somewhere along the way someone will ask about incomplete series, so I figured I'd start including the stuff now. 

Today we tackle the Big 10+1 conference.  Looks like a profitable system on incomplete series for those wanting to pick up an extra win here and there.  


BIG TEN +1

Illinois (6-2; 6-2) - 4 / 1 / 0
Indiana (4-4; 4-4) - 3 / 1 / 0  (1 inc loss at [B])
Iowa (2-0; 1-0) - 0 / 2 (1) / 0  (1 inc loss at [B])
Michigan (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0
Michigan State (12-0; 9-0) - 7 (3) / 4 / 1
Minnesota (6-0; 5-0) - 2 (1) / 3 / 1  (2 inc losses at [A])
Northwestern (10-1; 6-1) - 6 (3) / 4 (1) / 0
Ohio State (3-0; 2-0) - 3 (1) / 0 / 0
Penn State (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 1 / 0
Purdue (7-1; 7-1) - 4 / 2 / 1  (1 inc loss at [B])
Wisconsin (4-0; 3-0) - 1 (1) / 3 / 0

Total (58-8)
Record if not including incomplete series (46-8)
33 games won at the [A] bet (10 of these were incomplete series wins)
21 games won at the [B] bet (2 of these was incomplete series wins)
3 games won at the [C] bet
2 incomplete [A] losses
3 incomplete [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  2/10 (20%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  3/2 (150%)


After running final numbers on this conference, there were 10 incomplete wins at [A] and 2 incomplete losses at [A].  Of the 10 wins, 9 of them were on a team's last game of the season.  The other win came in a team's second to last game of the season.  So making an [A] bet on the final game of the season went 9-2.  Smells like profit to me.  What is not profit is Indiana and Illinois.  

Since there were 2 incomplete wins at [B] and 3 incomplete losses at [B], there were 5 additional [A] games that lost, so incomplete [A] games went 9-7 overall, not too good.

Recommendation is to play, only if they qualify, all [A] games if they are a team's last regular game of the season.

Hey Kang

Thanks guys!  Chicano, you have to wait a few more days for SEC

Today we focus on the CONFERENCE USA.  A nice mid-major conference with some nice looking teams this year.  This one might be worth taking a look with the exception of a few teams at the end that just likes to screw up a conference. 



CONFERENCE USA

Alabama-Birmingham (5-0; 5-0) - 3 / 2 / 0  (no data prior to 1997)
Central Florida (2-0; 2-0) - 0 / 2 / 0  (no data prior to 1995)
East Carolina (2-0; 2-0) - 2 / 0 / 0
Houston (7-1; 6-1) - 4 (1) / 2 / 1  (2 inc losses at [B])
Marshall (2-0; 2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0  (no data prior to 1995)
Memphis (6-0; 5-0) - 3 (1) / 3 / 0
Rice (6-1; 5-1) - 5 (1) / 0 / 1  (1 inc loss at [A])
Southern Methodist (12-0; 12-0) - 7 / 4 / 1  (1 inc loss at [A])
Southern Mississippi (3-0; 2-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 2
Texas-El Paso (9-0; 8-0) - 3 (1) / 4 / 2
Tulane (6-2; 4-2) - 4 (2) / 1 / 1  (1 inc loss at [A], 1 at [B])
Tulsa (8-3; 6-3) - 4 (2) / 3 / 1

Total (68-7)
Record if not including incomplete series (59-7)
37 games won at the [A] bet (9 of these were incomplete series wins)
22 games won at the [B] bet (none were incomplete series wins)
9 games won at the [C] bet
3 incomplete [A] losses
3 incomplete [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  3/9 (33%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  3/0 (999%)


There were 9 incomplete wins at [A] and 3 incomplete losses at [A].  Of the 9 wins, 6 of them were on a team's last game of the season.  The other 3 came in a team's second to last game of the season.  So making an [A] bet on the final game of the season went 6-3.  A little profit there.  Since there were three incomplete series losses at [B], those [A] games all lost.  So overall, making an [A] bet on an incomplete series went 6-6.  Not good. 

All but one of the series losses came in an odd year.  2009 is an odd year...  Stay away from the Terrible Toos (TOO-lane and TOOL-sa).  These teams, with nicknames aptly named for natural disasters are looking to make a disaster out of your wallet. .    

Until next time!  Happy betting!

Thats fine KANG

Well, I am slacking off a little today.  This is not really a conference, nevertheless I will include them.  Maybe there is a reason they are not in a conference.... 

Short and sweet....


DIVISION I-A INDEPENDENTS

Army (6-0; 3-0) - 4 (3) / 1 / 1  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Navy (7-0; 6-0) - 5 (1) / 2 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Notre Dame (5-0; 3-0) - 4 (2) / 1 / 0
Western Kentucky (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0 

Total (19-0)
Record if not including incomplete series (13-0)
14 games won at the [A] bet (6 of these were incomplete series wins)
4 games won at the [B] bet (no incomplete series went to a [B] bet)
no series even went to the [C] bet
1 incomplete [A] loss
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  1/6 (17%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  0/0


I don't need to say too much about this.  Every one of the 6 incomplete series either won or lost at the [A] bet.  In 3 of these series, there was a possible [B] bet. 

Time to work on a real conference.  Next up... the Mid-American conference.  Cheers 

Correction to the previous post.... 

Navy has no incomplete series losses. 

All the rest of the stats remain the same.  Even the shortest and simplest of these posts are prone to mistakes. 


DIVISION I-A INDEPENDENTS

Army (6-0; 3-0) - 4 (3) / 1 / 1  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Navy (7-0; 6-0) - 5 (1) / 2 / 0 
Notre Dame (5-0; 3-0) - 4 (2) / 1 / 0
Western Kentucky (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0 

Total (19-0)
Record if not including incomplete series (13-0)
14 games won at the [A] bet (6 of these were incomplete series wins)
4 games won at the [B] bet (no incomplete series went to a [B] bet)
no series even went to the [C] bet
1 incomplete [A] loss
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  1/6 (17%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  0/0

One thing I thought of this morning while reviewing this data.  You cannot always predict when a game will have a line.  Since we cannot always predict the future, if you already have an [A] or [B] bet loss and the [C] game comes up unlined,  that doesn't mean you cannot play [C] the following week.  For purposes of this system, since we always have past data at our disposal, it is easy to say let's throw out the series.  You can always throw a series out prior to betting or even on the [A] game, but once that [B] or [C] game comes around, you have to either take the loss or take the chance the following week.

Now on to today's conference, the MAC.  Lined information for this conference only goes back to 1989, however Temple which was part of the Big East and (now) division I-FCS Atlantic-10 conference during the past 24 seasons has lined information going all the way back to 1985. 


MID AMERICAN

Akron (8-0; 8-0) - 7 / 1 / 0
Ball State (3-1; 3-1) - 1 / 1 / 1  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Bowling Green (1-0; 1-0) - 1 / 0 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Buffalo (3-0; 3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0 
Central Michigan (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 1
Eastern Michigan (7-0; 7-0) - 3 / 4 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Kent State (5-1; 5-1) - 3 / 0 / 2  (3 incomplete series losses at [A])
Miami (OH) (3-0; 3-0) - 1 / 2 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Northern Illinois (2-0; 2-0) - 1 / 1 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Ohio (8-0; 7-0) - 7 (1) / 1 / 0
Temple (9-0; 8-0) - 6 (1) / 1 / 2  (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 2 at [B])
Toledo (4-0; 4-0) - 2 / 1 / 1
Western Michigan (3-0; 3-0) - 0 / 3 / 0

Total (59-2)
Record if not including incomplete series (56-2)
36 games won at the [A] bet (3 of these were incomplete series wins)
16 games won at the [B] bet (none of these were incomplete series wins)
7 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete series [A] losses
5 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  6/3 (200%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  5/0 (999%)


Clearly the best teams in terms of covering the line after 3 SU and ATS losses are Akron and Ohio with an 88% cover rate at the [A] game.  Where this conference gets burned is all the incomplete series losses which really take a toll on the wallet.  Even the incomplete [A] games are not profitable in this conference. 

Therefore, eliminating all incomplete series, the conference is a blistering 56-2 over the past 20 seasons and 25-1 since the 2000 season, with Kent State (2007) being the only blemish.  Very profitable indeed.

Until next time...   Cheers 

Today's conference is the Mountain West.  There were no lines on UNLV games from 1986-1993 and from 1996 to 2000 at least Covers does not have them.  Does anyone know why?


MOUNTAIN WEST

Air Force (4-0; 3-0) - 3 (1) / 0 / 1  (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 1 at [B])
Brigham Young (3-0; 3-0) - 2 / 1 / 0
Colorado State (4-1; 4-1) - 3 / 1 / 0 
New Mexico (6-1; 6-1) - 4 / 2 / 0  (2 incomplete series losses at [A]) 
San Diego State (8-1; 7-1) - 5 (1) / 1 / 2  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Texas Christian (6-0; 5-0) - 5 (1) / 1 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Nevada-Las Vegas (4-0; 4-0) - 2 / 0 / 2  (1 incomplete series losses at [B])
Utah (6-0; 6-0) - 3 / 3 / 0 
Wyoming (4-2; 3-2) - 3 (1) / 0 / 1  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])

Total (45-5)
Record if not including incomplete series (41-5)
30 games won at the [A] bet (4 of these were incomplete series wins)
9 games won at the [B] bet (none of these were incomplete series wins)
6 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete series [A] losses
2 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  6/4 (150%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  2/0 (999%)


Utah and TCU appear to be the most profitable from a units standpoint, but Wyoming is clearly at the bottom.  I wonder what it is about teams that appear last in alphabetic order that happen to sport the worst records in the conference.  There is a slight profit (approximately 6 units) playing this conference without the incomplete series.  Playing those picks up only 4 additional wins, but those are drained by the 6 [A] and 2 [B] losses.  Even the [A] games that appear as a final game of the season are only 4-5 over the past 24 years. 

We are heading down the homestretch.  Tomorrow we will look at the Pac-10  

Today, we look at the Pac-10 conference.  


PAC-10

Arizona (4-0; 4-0) - 3  / 0 / 1
Arizona State (9-0; 6-0) - 6 (1) / 3 (2) / 0
California (6-1; 6-1) - 3 / 3 / 0 
California-Los Angeles (4-0; 3-0) - 1 (1) / 0 / 3  (1 incomplete series loss at [A], 1 at [B])
Oregon (4-0; 4-0) - 3 / 1 / 0 
Oregon State (8-1; 8-1) - 6 / 2 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Southern California (3-0; 2-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 1
Stanford (10-0; 9-0) - 6 / 3 (1) / 1
Washington (5-2; 2-2) - 5 (3) / 0 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Washington State (7-1; 4-1) - 5 (2) / 2 (1) / 0  (2 incomplete series losses at [A], 1 at [B])

Total (60-5)
Record if not including incomplete series (48-5)
40 games won at the [A] bet (8 of these were incomplete series wins)
14 games won at the [B] bet (4 of these were incomplete series wins)
6 games won at the [C] bet
5 incomplete series [A] losses
2 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  5/8 (63%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  2/4 (50%)


Again, the two teams at the bottom of the alphabetical list are the ones bringing the conference into mediocrity.  Stanford and Arizona State are the most profitable.  I see no advantage one way or the other of playing incomplete series.  You may gain 1/2 unit at best playing them.  Leave the two teams from Washington out, and you can find about 3-4 units profit from playing the incomplete series.

Tomorrow, I shall focus on the SEC, then cover the Sun Belt on Thursday and conclude with the WAC on Friday. 

Starting Saturday, I will break this all down the other way, by season and try to equate actual units to all conferences as we get ready for the college football season. 

Today, we look at the SEC.  


SEC

Alabama (4-0; 3-0) - 3 (1) / 1 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Arkansas (4-1; 3-1) - 4 (1) / 0 / 0
Auburn (1-0; 1-0) - 0 / 1 / 0 
Florida (2-0; 2-0) - 0 / 2 / 0
Georgia (0-0; 0-0) - 0 / 0 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A]) 
Kentucky (10-0; 7-0) - 8 (3) / 2 / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Louisiana State (2-0; 0-0) - 1 (1) / 1 (1) / 0
Mississippi (6-0; 4-0) - 6 (2) / 0 / 0  (2 incomplete series losses at [A])
Mississippi State (7-2; 6-2) - 4 / 3 (1) / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
South Carolina (3-1; 1-1) - 2 (1) / 1 (1) / 0  (1 incomplete series loss at [B])
Tennessee (1-1; 0-1) - 1 (1) / 0 / 0 
Vanderbilt (9-0; 8-0) - 7 (1) / 2 / 0

Total (49-5)
Record if not including incomplete series (35-5)
36 games won at the [A] bet (11 of these were incomplete series wins)
13 games won at the [B] bet (3 of these were incomplete series wins)
0 games won at the [C] bet
6 incomplete series [A] losses
1 incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  6/11 (54%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  1/3 (33%)


Again, three of the last four teams at the bottom of the alphabetical list are the least profitable. 

Some notes about teams in this conference:  Since 1989, Florida has not lost three consecutive games SU.  Since 1985, Georgia has lost 3 consecutive SU games only once (1990).  The one loss by Arkansas in 1990 was two years prior to playing an SEC schedule.

[A] games at the end of the season are only 4-6, but of the 14 incomplete series wins, 11 of these were [A] winners, and of those, 7 won in the second to last game of the season.  So playing an incomplete [A] game is 11-6, for about 5 units of additional profit.  Once the games go to the [B], they are only 3-2, giving about 1-2 units back.  Also, we have had no series wins at [C].  This tells us that in all 5 [C] bets, those are 0-5.

Playing all incomplete [A] games shows additional profit, so recommend playing those instead of leaving them off and stay away from all [C] bets.  Take the [B] losses and move on.

With the exception of the Big East, this powerhouse conference yields the fewest number of complete series opportunities, as expected.  Noone in a major conference wants to lose three consecutive SU and ATS games.

Today's featured conference is the Sun Belt.  A young conference and one of the smallest of all Division 1-A football.  Most lines go back to 1994.  Some of the teams that have been around longer, have lines dating back prior to selection into this conference.  The two Florida teams only data to 2004 as they are the newest members.  Overall very profitable.


SUN BELT

Arkansas State (8-0; 6-0) - 3 (1) / 4 (1) / 1
Florida Atlantic (2-0; 2-0) - 0 / 2 / 0
Florida International (0-1; 0-1) - 0 / 0 / 0 
Louisiana-Lafayette (9-0; 7-0) - 7 (2) / 0 / 2  (1 incomplete series loss at [A])
Louisiana-Monroe (1-0; 1-0) - 0 / 1 / 0 
Middle Tennessee State (1-0; 1-0) - 0 / 2 / 0
North Texas (6-0; 6-0) - 4 / 2 / 0  
Troy (2-0; 1-0) - 2 (1) / 0 / 0 

Total (29-1)
Record if not including incomplete series (24-1)
16 games won at the [A] bet (4 of these were incomplete series wins)
11 games won at the [B] bet (1 of these were incomplete series wins)
3 games won at the [C] bet
1 incomplete series [A] losses
no incomplete series [B] losses
Ratio of incomplete series [A] losses to [A] wins:  1/4 (25%)
Ratio of incomplete series [B] losses to [B] wins:  0/1 (0%)


Florida International is the only blemish, losing in 2006 - that one fell by 7 points.  Everything else has been perfect since conference inception.  The [A] games on the last game of the season are 2-1, while the [B] games are 1-0.  Not much data to go on, but overall, at 29-1, one of the more profitable conferences.  Tomorrow, the WAC!  Cheers!

GOOD WORK !!!