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A Few NHL Systems

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Posted: #1
With the NHL season around the corner, here are a few simple systems I play diversified which historically has shown to grind out a profit.  I will share an automated excel system sheet which will show the qualifying teams on daily update and ability to track success/failures as the season goes on.

NHL Road & Home System Chase                                           1.  Qualifying Road Team is identified by a road trip of 4 or more consecutive games. 4 game chase on Road Play or Road Fade starting with first game of road trip

2.  For Road Play, the team you are taking must be in the top 8 of league standings

             A.  The qualifying team will be a play until the team WINS 1 road game.

3.  For Road Fade, the team you are fading must be in the bottom 10 of the current league standings                            

                A.  The qualifying team will be faded until the team LOSES 1 road game.

4.  Qualifying Home Play is identified by a home stand of 4 or more consecutive games. 4 game chase on Home Play starting with first game of home stand                                                                      A.  For Home Play, the team you are taking must be in the top 8 of league standings. The qualifying team will be a play until the team WINS 1 home game.

Betting Structure (Labby works well but this is how i play it):

A Game - to win 1 unit

B Game - A game loss + 1u (Martingale)

C Game - to win 1.5 u (discretion, possible shift of loss to next A)

D Game - to win 3 u (discretion.....)

 
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Posted: #2
RPI DOG SYSTEM
This has been discussed before on this form but this is how I like to play it:
1. Qualifying team is identified by a team that is DOGGED in the game, but has a higher RPI (>10) than its opponent.
2. For it to be a play, the qualifying team must be entering the game with a losing streak of 1 or more. (I do this to limit plays, exposure and risk; historically there is a slight increase in win% when coming into game with a L).  Last year it was just slightly better than playing all RPI dogs, with less play.
 
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Posted: #3
NHL TOP VRPI (LABBY)
1. The qualifying road team has the highest RPI differential of all the games played that night
2. If the same team qualifies in consecutive nights, but won previously on the road, there is no play that night.
3. Faves & Dogs qualify, played on Labby
 
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Posted: #4
When I post the sheet it will also have the TOP FAVE played on Labby, this has been discussed before by DR24 and others and I have played it for a few years with success.  I suggest this year that at all-star break it ceases or quit when a suggested amount of units is won, can get a bit scary with the juice during the DOG winning streak which is bound to happen at one point in the season.
I also play & track, TOP PICK LABBY's (I & II), this is simply my top handicapped pick which doesn't fall into a system (m/l or O-U), played on a LABBY.  historically these have been the most profitable for me compared to the systems.  I only use the sheet for tracking my plays throughout the year.

GL this season
 
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Posted: #5
BOL
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #6
good luck this year.
 
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Posted: #7
Are you going to be posting your plays jenjay?
 
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Posted: #8
Baseline,
I wish i could commit the time and effort to post everyday, but know that i cant everyday due to my travels and schedule.  I am on here enough to post daily plays a few times per week, but not all daily qualifying plays so in my mind that isn't fair and creates a bit of frustration for the few looking for it daily.  When i do post the link to the sheet, i update the link ~3 times per week with records and plays as i use it for access wherever i may be....if you want to see how it is progressing or possible plays you can re-download the sheet, or download the sheet and update it daily if it works for you.
That being said, the action junkie in me plays a few systems from the start using last years data for the first few weeks of the season.
The 2 systems I will start playing opening night and plays are:
TOP FAVE LABBY: LA Kings (-155)
TOP VRPI LABBY: MTL Canadiens (-145)

GL this season

 
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Posted: #9
Here is the link to this years 2015-2016 sheet.  As of right now it will utilize last years end of seasons RPI & standings.  I use this to only play TOP FAVE and TOP VRPI systems, it may show other qualifying games in other systems but I hold off on the others until their is a few weeks of data and current years standings & RPI's from ESPN are posted.  I will update this link in a few weeks so if you want to use it this year, you will have to re-download it at that time. Pretty simple, click today, click update, and with a internet connection and excel (macros enabled) it should do the rest.  There is always bugs on these sheets at the beginning so i will update as necessary.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjNy1yR1JFUWdqeFk/view?usp=sharing

GL
 
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Posted: #10
Real nice spreadsheet. I made something like it for mlb but not as automated. Thanks for sharing
 
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Posted: #11
Thanks for sharing again and good luck for the up coming season.

I will be getting my RPI from several sources this year and will share later this weekend when I have some more time.

But basically for today I have Pitt and Winnipeg as RPI dogs, and my top VRPI is Minnesota (betting against my avalanche is never easy).

Will be interesting to see if and how our plays vary over the season, and which source or sources can deliver us the most profitable results. 

 
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Posted: #12
Excellent Riv. This will be an interesting comparison. Tonight I also have Minn as TOPVRPI and TB as TopFave. I like how you blend your LAbby so this year I am going to try the method in the top Fave as last year only once did top fave lose 3 in a row. Plan is blending to four numbers, so 2 wins clear the line. I did notice using last year's RPI that NYR would of hit on RPI DoG last night. Maybe a good plan to play the RPI dog early in season as well.
 
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Posted: #13
Posted link above now has automation and qualifying plays for this years stats, standings, RPI and plays for the few systems I play and track.

GL, hope it is useful for you in your plays this year,  I will update the records of the system plays for the weeks to follow or play.  If you want any help in your filters and system plays drop me a line and see if I can help in yours
 
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Posted: #14
Hi jenjay,
Have been doing some research as I really love the idea of the RPI dog system.
What I have been doing is adding RPI+SOS+ pk%+pp% to work out if the dog is a value play or not. It has been working very well so far, but am hesitant to bet it without any back testing, which would be extremely time consuming.
Also, do you know how espn calculate their SOS?
 
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Posted: #15
Riv,
That's interesting to add the PK, PP & SOS.  It sounds like you have been having more success than myself with the RPI Dog.  I certainly might need to add something to my thoughts and process.  I have been tracking my plays with my RPI dog, L1 philosophy and then capping and playing when I feel there is value and have put up a goose egg so far!! 0-6 to be exact .  I am going to start looking at your ideas when I choose to make a play, I do feel strongly that there is value in this process & concept.  Last year it started slow but had a few good stretches to make it worth while.  The topVRPI so far is showing alot of promise going 12-5 (70.59%).  I also believe the home and road plays are good to start playing as the crap and good teams have somewhat surfaced.  I tracked the plays and it shows a loss right now due to the Canucks losing 4 in a row at home after starting out OK in there first 5.  If it wasn't for DR killing the parlay's I would be down so far in the season but glad to have a few pennies in my pocket to keep it going.  The link is updated if you want to see a few of the records.
GL and thanks for the input, much appreciated
 
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Posted: #16
and....I do not know how ESPN calculates there strength of schedule, wish i did...is there alot of variance in this value from some of the other sites?  I have never compared.
 
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Posted: #17
I'll get back to your post when I have some more time, but I show Nashville as a dog play today, however I did lock them in at +106 last night Aus time.
 
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Posted: #18
Hi jenjay,
Just want to update you on my take on the RPI dog.

After todays losses of Washington and Calgary, the current record is

14-15, 48.3%

If you would like to see the bets I have made for it, PM me.

Ill check out your results over the weekend to see how your systems are going. I have had a few losses on the top VRPI lately, not sure if you have been the same as our numbers may be different, but it would be nice to string a few Wins together soon!
 
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Posted: #19
ROI% = 3.4% (on money wagered not bankroll)

I am curious as to whether the Dog eff score could be applied here
 
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Posted: #20
It's been tough sledding for me Riv.  I updated the link to sheet with what I have played so far if you want to check it out.  I have had to use some (alot) of discretion as my allotted BR to the systems were squealing pretty hard with a few bad runs in all sports for a stretch. I may have to decide and eliminate a few system plays as i feel I am not making any ground. All the qualifying plays may not be in the sheet as they are only the ones I decided to play on that given day.  As well, for the RPI dog I always lean to qualifiers coming into the game L1.
I am interested and will PM to see how yours has fared 
GL
 
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Posted: #21
I have updated the link to my current record this year.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjNy1yR1JFUWdqeFk/view?usp=sharing

Negatives: TOP Fave Labby (System 3) blew goats and I had to shut it down losing 20u, and my dedicated BR to that system.  By now you would think I would learn heavy faves is not the way to go in NHL but years past have always seemed to provide 10-20u before things got hairy and i shut it down.  Chalk it up to remind myself NOT to play heavier faves in NHL.

Positives: TOPVRPI continues to be a strong system.  Currently it is hitting at 61.29%, and played on a Labby has produced +26.05 units to the good.  The one pick a night is nice, little stress and plays a low average line over time.  Had one bad stretch where it got scary, similar to the bad stretch DR's system had.  You will notice that almost nightly the TOPVRPI is one of the games that fits DR's parlay system.

The others have been blah, nothing spectacular and my personnel "best capped games" on top pick labby's have barely been over 50% but still show slight profits.

If you want to see profit/loss graphs as time has progressed, you can simply click on the header (ex. "System #4") and it will pop up.

GL with the rest of your season
 
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Posted: #22

Hey JenJay23, any chance you can update the link with your template with results up to the All-Star break? I missed tracking plays for a bit in January but from what I can see it looks like your VPRI is still running well.

Thanks. GL the rest of the way.

 
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Posted: #23
Hey Nase,
Link is updated for your reference.  I have not kept up on the RPI Dog tracking over the last few weeks prior to the break.  As you indicated the top VRPI has done well on a Labby but certainly had a few scary stretches where the line was starting to squeal.

GL
 
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Posted: #24

Thanks for the update. I agree with the VPRI being on the fence at times so I do tread cautiously. As an FYI, one thing that I do when I look at NHL games is 3 in 4 night scenarios. I preset my template at the beginning of the season and go from there. It's basically a 3 game chase each time usually with totals. The odd time I look at sides but this is where I've taking a liking to your VPRI approach.

BOL!

 
 
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Posted: #25
Link is updated as of yesterday.  Personally I am calling it a year on my system plays as I reached my goal for NHL and I can look forward and prepare for MLB.
For the 3rd year running the TOPVRPI produced the best results for myself.  122 plays, 71 W's- 51L's (58.20%), on a Labby it added 43units to my BR.  I did try something very risky this year and attempted to start the year allotting 20u's to the system.  Each labby line consisted of a 2u win. I expected I may of had to "re-up" at some point during the year, but fortunately did not have to (although was close twice).  Historically in NHL & MLB a 20u starting roll would get a guy through the season so I tried and accomplished it.  On my 20u starting roll it produced a 215% return on initial starting BR.
My top pick labby's is something I like to do as well,  top pick from personal opinion/capping or from other systems posted hear.  I was happy with a +15u in each system so shut it down a few weeks ago.
RPI Dog I was not to consistent with as it seemed i could not get any mojo going with it.  shutting it down up a few units.
I lost 20 units on top fave labby and won't play that juicy system again trying to grind  a few units.
GL with the rest of your year and bring on MLB !
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