Sparrow, I actually don't think that this would translate to any other sport. It definitely wouldn't translate to football or basketball, the only thing that it would have a chance with would be hockey. Even that is a long shot, because the O/U have a wider range in baseball than hockey, which fluctuates maybe no more than 1.5 goals. I could give it a shot though.
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Sparrow, I actually don't think that this would translate to any other sport. It definitely wouldn't translate to football or basketball, the only thing that it would have a chance with would be hockey. Even that is a long shot, because the O/U have a wider range in baseball than hockey, which fluctuates maybe no more than 1.5 goals. I could give it a shot though.
1. Twins -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.95 units 2. Orioles +1.5 .... 1.05 units to win 1 unit 3. Tigers +1.5 ..... 1.7 units to win 1 unit 4. Mariners +1.5 ..... 1.35 units to win 1 unit 5. Reds -1.5 (Game 1 of the doubleheader) .... 1 unit to win 1.6 units
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Here are Monday (August 31st) Plays
1. Twins -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.95 units 2. Orioles +1.5 .... 1.05 units to win 1 unit 3. Tigers +1.5 ..... 1.7 units to win 1 unit 4. Mariners +1.5 ..... 1.35 units to win 1 unit 5. Reds -1.5 (Game 1 of the doubleheader) .... 1 unit to win 1.6 units
Freaky--have you tried the formula with changing the o/u % # and using the teams RL winning %. I swapped the #'s out on the detroit game today and would have came up to take tbay on the -1.5....going to see what happens with the rest of the games from today
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Freaky--have you tried the formula with changing the o/u % # and using the teams RL winning %. I swapped the #'s out on the detroit game today and would have came up to take tbay on the -1.5....going to see what happens with the rest of the games from today
Back at it again today, hopefully to erase last night
9/1/09 - Tuesday
Rays +1.5 ... 1.1 unit to win 1 unit Reds -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.9 units Mariners +1.5 .... 1.4 units to win 1 unit Twins +1.5 ..... 1.3 units to win 1 unit Athletics -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Expected return .... .29 units
*Although I don' use any human input, I like this card alot more than yesterdays, but I guess we'll see if that means anything at all
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Back at it again today, hopefully to erase last night
9/1/09 - Tuesday
Rays +1.5 ... 1.1 unit to win 1 unit Reds -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.9 units Mariners +1.5 .... 1.4 units to win 1 unit Twins +1.5 ..... 1.3 units to win 1 unit Athletics -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Expected return .... .29 units
*Although I don' use any human input, I like this card alot more than yesterdays, but I guess we'll see if that means anything at all
Back at it again today, hopefully to erase last night
9/1/09 - Tuesday
Rays +1.5 ... 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
Reds -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.9 units
Mariners +1.5 .... 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Twins +1.5 ..... 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Athletics -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Expected return .... .29 units
*Although I don' use any human input, I like this card alot more than
yesterdays, but I guess we'll see if that means anything at all
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Back at it again today, hopefully to erase last night
9/1/09 - Tuesday
Rays +1.5 ... 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
Reds -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.9 units
Mariners +1.5 .... 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Twins +1.5 ..... 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Athletics -1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Expected return .... .29 units
*Although I don' use any human input, I like this card alot more than
yesterdays, but I guess we'll see if that means anything at all
Freaky, keep up the good work, you can't win every game or every day..You are still up several units..Do not get discouraged.P.S. Did you notice that every one of your game #1 was a winner,don't know if this is coincidental or is this how you rank them...LOL
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Freaky, keep up the good work, you can't win every game or every day..You are still up several units..Do not get discouraged.P.S. Did you notice that every one of your game #1 was a winner,don't know if this is coincidental or is this how you rank them...LOL
IceAce, my first plays are 4-2 actually I think haha. Last Wednesday the Pirates didn't cover, and I think it was Friday or Saturday the Reds got blown out too. But I do rank them in order of the strength of the play even though there isn't too much discrepancy among them, I guess I had never mentioned that before though.
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IceAce, my first plays are 4-2 actually I think haha. Last Wednesday the Pirates didn't cover, and I think it was Friday or Saturday the Reds got blown out too. But I do rank them in order of the strength of the play even though there isn't too much discrepancy among them, I guess I had never mentioned that before though.
For those who have followed this thread, I mentioned earlier that I only list the top 5 plays each day because I thought that was reasonable.
Yet, there are usually more than 5 plays a day, but I don't list the remaining ones, but I do have them in my database, and the results when coming these extra games with the plays I have posted here, is even almost double in profit.
The results with these games included are:
Total Net Return: +19.55 units Total Expected Return: +2.99 units
I think I will only continue to post 5 plays though from simplicity factors, unless anyone else wants me to post all the plays (which on certain days it isn't uncommon to see upwards of 8 or 9) Just let me know. Thanks.
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For those who have followed this thread, I mentioned earlier that I only list the top 5 plays each day because I thought that was reasonable.
Yet, there are usually more than 5 plays a day, but I don't list the remaining ones, but I do have them in my database, and the results when coming these extra games with the plays I have posted here, is even almost double in profit.
The results with these games included are:
Total Net Return: +19.55 units Total Expected Return: +2.99 units
I think I will only continue to post 5 plays though from simplicity factors, unless anyone else wants me to post all the plays (which on certain days it isn't uncommon to see upwards of 8 or 9) Just let me know. Thanks.
Orioles +1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.3 Brewers +1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.1 Marlins +1.5 ..... 1.3 units to win 1 Twins +1.5 ..... 1.35 units to win 1 Reds -1.5 ..... 1 unit to win 1.65
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9/2/09 - Wednesday's Plays
Orioles +1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.3 Brewers +1.5 .... 1 unit to win 1.1 Marlins +1.5 ..... 1.3 units to win 1 Twins +1.5 ..... 1.35 units to win 1 Reds -1.5 ..... 1 unit to win 1.65
That's the only real problem I see in this whole thing, and I have yet to come up with something that I want to incorporate in right now. That's a great question.
What I have done though is experimented with seeing how much the expected difference changes when the different lines move and change, and I have found that the expected return does change, but not too too much.
This was the main reason for only posting the top 5 picks in a day. Because on certain days I have 7,8,9 different plays, but those lower end plays might not become a play anymore if there is some sort of change in any of the lines, so I just omit them from being posted. More often than not the top 5 picks are going to all remain plays even if their line changes a little. I have also tried to post around noon each day because I figure no game will ever start before noon, and because it has given the bettors some time to weigh the opening lines back and forth.
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That's the only real problem I see in this whole thing, and I have yet to come up with something that I want to incorporate in right now. That's a great question.
What I have done though is experimented with seeing how much the expected difference changes when the different lines move and change, and I have found that the expected return does change, but not too too much.
This was the main reason for only posting the top 5 picks in a day. Because on certain days I have 7,8,9 different plays, but those lower end plays might not become a play anymore if there is some sort of change in any of the lines, so I just omit them from being posted. More often than not the top 5 picks are going to all remain plays even if their line changes a little. I have also tried to post around noon each day because I figure no game will ever start before noon, and because it has given the bettors some time to weigh the opening lines back and forth.
Hey freaky...... Great stuff so far man Been on the sidelines cause I got other stuff going. Keeping track I noticed this:
-1.5 / RL fav of the day 6 - 0 = +10.68 units
You think that's just a hot streak or could you be onto something with your capping and / or your calculations? I'm sure it will tail off a bit due to the law of averages but still with those odds your getting great value.
Me personally I'm thinking of incorporating a modified chase system or something on the side and see how it does. Tracking wise
They do seem to be strong calls keeping you out of the red. Thanks for making math interesting again along with SN - much props........
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Hey freaky...... Great stuff so far man Been on the sidelines cause I got other stuff going. Keeping track I noticed this:
-1.5 / RL fav of the day 6 - 0 = +10.68 units
You think that's just a hot streak or could you be onto something with your capping and / or your calculations? I'm sure it will tail off a bit due to the law of averages but still with those odds your getting great value.
Me personally I'm thinking of incorporating a modified chase system or something on the side and see how it does. Tracking wise
They do seem to be strong calls keeping you out of the red. Thanks for making math interesting again along with SN - much props........
Montana thanks man for that little piece there, I didn't know that off the top of my head actually, but when you had it written down there I do seem to recall winning big on those favorites...
You can make that 7-0 after today too with the Reds -1.5 beating the Pirates 5-3.
I'll look into some stuff see where I am getting real value at here and try to provide a little tid bit tonight. Appreciate the following..
(Damn Joe Nathan, thought I had that one in the bag)
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Montana thanks man for that little piece there, I didn't know that off the top of my head actually, but when you had it written down there I do seem to recall winning big on those favorites...
You can make that 7-0 after today too with the Reds -1.5 beating the Pirates 5-3.
I'll look into some stuff see where I am getting real value at here and try to provide a little tid bit tonight. Appreciate the following..
(Damn Joe Nathan, thought I had that one in the bag)
Ugh.. yesterday could have been so much better, the Twins and Orioles completely blew up in the 9th inning to end us as losses, should have been a 4-1 day, with plus units but wasn't meant to be
Orioles -1 unit Brewers -1 units Marlins +1 unit Twins -1.35 units Reds +1.65 units
Total: -.7 units
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Ugh.. yesterday could have been so much better, the Twins and Orioles completely blew up in the 9th inning to end us as losses, should have been a 4-1 day, with plus units but wasn't meant to be
Orioles -1 unit Brewers -1 units Marlins +1 unit Twins -1.35 units Reds +1.65 units
Sorry for the late plays today, I know I missed a few games and everything, but I was tired all day and extremely busy all afternoon.
Montana brought to my attention how profitable laying runs has been in this system that I decided to go back and test and look in depth to what was going on. I added a few more variables to my capping formula, now I have things I can tinker with try and find the best results. One variable I Incorporated was that I think I had been favoring the odds slightly of the team getting runs, because the plays were very uneven. So I threw in something that spit back about a 50:50 split of all past games I have recorded, that I will now be using. So there should be more games where there is a play on a team laying runs.
At first I wanted to do this mainly because I seen laying runs was much much more profitable so far than getting runs, but I think that is more in part of just the results the past days rather than anything wrong with the formula. I did this like I said to even out the percentage of plays on teams laying and giving runs. I really like what I have right now.
And with this slightly alteration, here's the plays on the games remaining for today....
(Just running the numbers, it would have had a play on the Tigers -1.5 this afternoon as well)
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Sorry for the late plays today, I know I missed a few games and everything, but I was tired all day and extremely busy all afternoon.
Montana brought to my attention how profitable laying runs has been in this system that I decided to go back and test and look in depth to what was going on. I added a few more variables to my capping formula, now I have things I can tinker with try and find the best results. One variable I Incorporated was that I think I had been favoring the odds slightly of the team getting runs, because the plays were very uneven. So I threw in something that spit back about a 50:50 split of all past games I have recorded, that I will now be using. So there should be more games where there is a play on a team laying runs.
At first I wanted to do this mainly because I seen laying runs was much much more profitable so far than getting runs, but I think that is more in part of just the results the past days rather than anything wrong with the formula. I did this like I said to even out the percentage of plays on teams laying and giving runs. I really like what I have right now.
And with this slightly alteration, here's the plays on the games remaining for today....
Sorry I didn't understand this well because I skimmed through it but with this system lets say I take Philly +1.5 am I also laying Lincecum -140 and hoping for a 1 run game?
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Sorry I didn't understand this well because I skimmed through it but with this system lets say I take Philly +1.5 am I also laying Lincecum -140 and hoping for a 1 run game?
Sorry I didn't understand this well because I skimmed through it but with this system lets say I take Philly +1.5 am I also laying Lincecum -140 and hoping for a 1 run game?
No. You just play the RL
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Quote Originally Posted by CurtisSumpter:
Sorry I didn't understand this well because I skimmed through it but with this system lets say I take Philly +1.5 am I also laying Lincecum -140 and hoping for a 1 run game?
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