Hey guys, sorry for the week of no posts. I had been messing with this system in every way possible to try and make it as perfect as possible by doing more testing and tweaking the formula for 1 run games. I also tried to eliminate the variable of subjectivity of one books money line compared to another books. I am very satisfied with what I have at the current moment.
Having tweaked the variables that go into determining the plays, I have back tested the results from the data I have from 8/26-9/4 and also 9/10. These are the results:
Any play with an expected return > .0 units Expected Return: +4.43 units Actual Return: +20.09 units Record: 56-41 (57.7%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 18-12 (60.0%) +16.20 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5): 38-29 (56.7%) +3.89 units
Any play with an expected return > .01 units Expected Return: +4.36 units Actual Return: +19.74 units Record: 50-34 (59.5%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 14-8 (63.6%) +14.80 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5) : 36-26 (58.1%) +4.94 units
Any play with an expected return > .02 units Expected Return: +4.21 units Actual Return: +12.01 units Record: 42-31 (57.5%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 8-6 (57.1%) +7.82 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5) 34-25 (57.6%) +4.19 units
Any play with an expected return > .03 units Expected Return: +3.73 units Actual Return: +11.64 units Record: 32-22 (59.3%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 6-3 (66.7%) +7.52 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5): 26-19 (57.8%) +4.12 units
Any play with an expected return >.04 units Expected Return: +3.31 units Actual Return: +10.45 units Record: 25-17 (59.5%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 5-1 (83.3%) +8.03 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5): 20-16 (55.6%) +2.42 units
Any play with an expected return > .05 units Expected Return: +2.82 units Actual Return: +6.91 units Record 18-13 (58.1%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 3-0 (100%) +5.50 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5) 15-13 (53.6%) +1.41 units
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Hey guys, sorry for the week of no posts. I had been messing with this system in every way possible to try and make it as perfect as possible by doing more testing and tweaking the formula for 1 run games. I also tried to eliminate the variable of subjectivity of one books money line compared to another books. I am very satisfied with what I have at the current moment.
Having tweaked the variables that go into determining the plays, I have back tested the results from the data I have from 8/26-9/4 and also 9/10. These are the results:
Any play with an expected return > .0 units Expected Return: +4.43 units Actual Return: +20.09 units Record: 56-41 (57.7%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 18-12 (60.0%) +16.20 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5): 38-29 (56.7%) +3.89 units
Any play with an expected return > .01 units Expected Return: +4.36 units Actual Return: +19.74 units Record: 50-34 (59.5%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 14-8 (63.6%) +14.80 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5) : 36-26 (58.1%) +4.94 units
Any play with an expected return > .02 units Expected Return: +4.21 units Actual Return: +12.01 units Record: 42-31 (57.5%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 8-6 (57.1%) +7.82 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5) 34-25 (57.6%) +4.19 units
Any play with an expected return > .03 units Expected Return: +3.73 units Actual Return: +11.64 units Record: 32-22 (59.3%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 6-3 (66.7%) +7.52 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5): 26-19 (57.8%) +4.12 units
Any play with an expected return >.04 units Expected Return: +3.31 units Actual Return: +10.45 units Record: 25-17 (59.5%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 5-1 (83.3%) +8.03 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5): 20-16 (55.6%) +2.42 units
Any play with an expected return > .05 units Expected Return: +2.82 units Actual Return: +6.91 units Record 18-13 (58.1%) Teams Laying Runs (-1.5): 3-0 (100%) +5.50 units Teams Getting Runs (+1.5) 15-13 (53.6%) +1.41 units
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