NBA
tor-cle 203
min-ind 206
bos-phi 194
mil-njn 186
chi-hou 198
sa-den 203
NCAAB
purd-ohios 133
cmich-buf 128
misst-kenty 151
rutg-gt 141
akr-emich 118
tol-kst 126
twsn-oldom 131
byu-airfc 139
iast-kanst 145
mary-nocar 153
niowa-brad 136
socar-fla 160
marq-dep 146
sdst-unlv 141
Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games:
lal at nyk (total listed at 225)
First, we'll write the points for and against for both teams when plyaing away (for the Lakers) and when playing at home (for the Knicks):
points for points against
lal 107.5 100.0
nyk 107.5 106.7
Then we'll the points for and the points against to get an idea about the pace of the game.
Total points for = 107.5 + 107.5 = 215
Total points against = 100.0 + 106.7 = 206.7
Third, to see if the game is going to be much or less offensive we divide the total offensive (total points for) by the total defensive (total points against) and that is:
off/def = 215 / 206.7 = 1.04
If this number (pace) it's higher than 1.00 the game is going to be rather offensive than defensive and that means that both teams are focused on scoring. If we have that situation we will use only the offensive numbers to estimate the total. But if the number is below 1.00 the game will not be so offensive so we will use only the defensive numbers to estimate the total.
In this case (offensive game) we'll multiply the total offensive (total points for) by the off / def fraction and that means:
215 * 1.04 = 223.6
Compared to the 225 total line there is a small difference of -1.4 points, but that too little.
So, in this case the total line set by the bookie is very sharp and I wouldn't take a play based on a difference of only 1.4 points. The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game.
So where do the Points for and Points against come from? sorry, Im a newbie.
Around 10 points, but if I have let's say my number 188 and the total listed by the bookie is 180 (NBA) I'll take the over at 8 points difference.
I prefere 10 points but not based on any research or facts, I just feel more confident if the difference is at least 10 points. When you think at the pace of an NBA game, especially when we're expecting high totals (over 210) what's 10 points?
NBA
tor-cle 203
min-ind 206
bos-phi 194
mil-njn 186
chi-hou 198
sa-den 203
NCAAB
purd-ohios 133
cmich-buf 128
misst-kenty 151
rutg-gt 141
akr-emich 118
tol-kst 126
twsn-oldom 131
byu-airfc 139
iast-kanst 145
mary-nocar 153
niowa-brad 136
socar-fla 160
marq-dep 146
sdst-unlv 141
Take care Butta, the spreadsheet is designed mainly to get an idea of the real odds and not to handicap a particular game. If it says 68% chances for over it doesn't mean you should place a lot of $ on that game. It only says that if those 2 teams with their actual goals for and against avg. would play 100 times, 68 times the total would be over.
So be cautios when using the %
You are not doing anything wrong, I changed a little bit the formula in order to improve it. The numbers from yesterday were too far from reality. I am continuing to search new things and to improve the formula. I posted earlier something about the change.
As you used it, it overates the offensive when 2 teams with sound offensive and sound defensive as well meet. It gives totals hard to believe. I need to improve it to eliminate this error and get more realistic numbers.
The same.
Now it depends on the bettor's patience. As an example I am not at all patient and if I have only one play for a night I tend to lower the limit beacuse I like to have more bets...
NBA
tor-cle over 194
min-ind under 219
mil-nj under 195.5
NCAAB
misst-kenty over 139.5
rutg-gt over 130
hof-gmasn over 128
byu-airfc over 124.5
iast-kanst over 134
sdst-unlv over 129.5
NBA: 1-2 NCAAB: 2-4 
Overall NBA 11-7 (61.1%) NCAAB 30-17 (63.8%).
I am tempted to give up but if it's still over 60% since I started I will give it another try tonight.
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